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Is the 2012 dead cat bounce fading like the days of summer?


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2012 Aug 11, 6:00pm   23,792 views  53 comments

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Intrigued by a comment made by dunnross yesterday:

Goran_K says

That tells me that the Phoenix bull trap is starting to fade, but I suppose we'll see what happens to prices more concretely this winter.

dunnross says

The fact that this was a bull trap and it is now over is more than obvious in places like Palo Alto, where asking prices are already down more than 20% since this summer.

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29   Eman   2012 Aug 16, 3:03pm  

tiny tina says

Just so you know, it's 99 Ranch.

Tina,

Interesting. We live only a couple of blocks from here, and we've always called it Ranch 99. Not sure which is the right name. :)

30   bmwman91   2012 Aug 16, 3:13pm  

Well, the sign out front does sort of imply "99 Ranch" but that just doesn't have a smooth ring to it. So, Ranch 99 it is as far as I am concerned.

31   Eman   2012 Aug 16, 3:21pm  

1sfrenter says

If all goes well (in escrow now), we'll have a 3/2 SFH in SF for $2150 month PITI with a 30 year fixed.

Congrats! Finally the house hunting is over. Enjoy your new pad. ;)

32   Facebooksux   2012 Aug 16, 3:26pm  

bmwman91 says

How about we wait 6-12 months and see what actually happens? As of right now, there are all sorts of arguments for bulls and bears. The market is anything but free, and with the economy about as under control as a Champagne colored Lexus RX300 in a Ranch 99 parking lot, it is anyone's guess what will actually happen.

How about we start a P.net betting pool? You get to put some money behind your positions on where the local RE market will go in 6 or 12 months.

Dude,

That Lexus quote is so spot on and funny it hurts.

You sir, are a Poet and a Scholar.

33   justme   2012 Aug 16, 6:20pm  

bmw91man says

and with the economy about as under control as a Champagne colored Lexus RX300 in a Ranch 99 parking lot

Very un-PC, but good for a laugh.

34   coriacci1   2012 Aug 17, 1:16am  

I love my 3bd, 1850 ft, double parlor, top floor, rent controlled flat, overlooking Dolores Park in San Francisco, at $1,500 a month! I will never buy in this town, ever. Why should I? I will never ever give 1 peso to a blood sucking, neighborhood smashing realturd. EVER! Repeal prop 13! Vacancy control now!

35   Goran_K   2012 Aug 17, 4:17am  

bmwman91 says

just about all of those points is definitely trollicious

CHICKALINGABAZOOKA!

36   bmwman91   2012 Aug 17, 4:31am  

lol

I see that you have converted to the Church of Duckhead.

37   Goran_K   2012 Aug 17, 5:42am  

In the last thread, I was arguing against you, Roberto, and Randy H, 3 people who have vested interest in pretending that the real estate market isn't in any trouble, I wouldn't call that a dog pile, more like a troll pile.

Also you're the one who immediately gets 2 to 3 dislikes on almost every comment you post. I think it's obvious what people think of your "analysis" on the forum. It's very trollish.

For instance, WhyPee pointed out that you misinterpreted the graph (both sale and list prices were falling), and you totally blew him off because he sunk your point about a Bay Area "boom". You tactic is to basically disregard data that doesn't support your agenda, and only consider data that supports your point, even if weakly so. Fortunately the majority of the forum has caught on.

38   1sfrenter   2012 Aug 17, 6:10am  

coriacci1 says

I love my 3bd, 1850 ft, double parlor, top floor, rent controlled flat, overlooking Dolores Park in San Francisco, at $1,500 a month!

So jealous. If I had a nice rent-controlled place I wouldn't even consider buying. But with rent at $2800 month and no rent control (single family home) and kids and dogs, forget about it.

We're either buying in the Excelsior or bust.

39   Goran_K   2012 Aug 17, 6:20am  

robertoaribas says

No pretending going on on my part, Phoenix prices are rising and rising fast... you ignore all data that doesn't fit your narrative, that's all.

According to Redfin data, inventory is rising (as can be expected in a state with as much underwater owners as Arizona), and month-over-month prices are down. As I pointed out before, I think Phoenix has a lot in common with Vegas. Crash -> Speculation -> Trend downward towards bottom.

I think we may be exiting the speculation stage at the moment with prices flattening. But hey, when you're raking in $6,000 a month and thinking of retiring to an island in the Pacific, why stop the gravy train of positivity, right?

40   Bigsby   2012 Aug 17, 6:54am  

Goran_K says

In the last thread, I was arguing against you, Roberto, and Randy H, 3 people who have vested interest in pretending that the real estate market isn't in any trouble, I wouldn't call that a dog pile, more like a troll pile.

Also you're the one who immediately gets 2 to 3 dislikes on almost every comment you post. I think it's obvious what people think of your "analysis" on the forum. It's very trollish.

For instance, WhyPee pointed out that you misinterpreted the graph (both sale and list prices were falling), and you totally blew him off because he sunk your point about a Bay Area "boom". You tactic is to basically disregard data that doesn't support your agenda, and only consider data that supports your point, even if weakly so. Fortunately the majority of the forum has caught on.

You were just wrong in that thread. It was as simple as that, but you just couldn't admit it.

41   Goran_K   2012 Aug 17, 8:30am  

robertoaribas says

redfin and zillow data are all crap..

Redfin is just a time delayed mirror for the MLS. You do know that right?

42   dunnross   2012 Aug 17, 11:55am  

robertoaribas says

redfin and zillow data are all crap.

Is that the same crap you used last month, when you were foaming at your mouth trying to prove to us that prices were going up in phoenix? Or is this the kind of crap which doesn't stink in your and our neck of the woods?

43   Bigsby   2012 Aug 17, 1:23pm  

WhyPee says

dunnross says

robertoaribas says

redfin and zillow data are all crap.

Is that the same crap you used last month, when you were foaming at your mouth trying to prove to us that prices were going up in phoenix? Or is this the kind of crap which doesn't stink in your and our neck of the woods?

And all the while, price/square foot is falling in Phoenix.... like everywhere else in the country.

Why buy now when you can buy for 95% less... presumably. Or something.

44   B.A.C.A.H.   2012 Aug 17, 3:04pm  

robertoaribas says

dips**t

robertoaribas says

another stupid person

Sounds real professional all right, Doctor Professor!

45   RentingForHalfTheCost   2012 Aug 17, 3:15pm  

robertoaribas says

Bigsby says

Why buy now when you can buy for 95% less... presumably. Or something.

Personally, I'm waiting till prices fall 150% more!

You can in fact lose 150% of your initial investment. I know people who have. Real estate can bite hard when it turns on you. Not saying it has or will for you, but it has for many in the BA.

46   B.A.C.A.H.   2012 Aug 17, 3:19pm  

RentingForHalfTheCost says

the real BA, not Concord

You can BART to SF, so it's real.

47   FortWayne   2012 Aug 17, 4:25pm  

Without fundamental recovery all this marketing by RE is just gimmicks.

I expect long slow further declines...money isn't there simply. Pretend can only last so long before ultimate liquidation.

48   RentingForHalfTheCost   2012 Aug 19, 7:22am  

B.A.C.A.H. says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

the real BA, not Concord

You can BART to SF, so it's real.

real shitty, sure. ;)

49   xenogear3   2012 Aug 19, 7:38am  

robertoaribas,

How is the weather? 110 degrees 9 days in a row.
I wonder if people buy house during that time.

50   lostand confused   2012 Aug 19, 7:57am  

FortWayne says

Without fundamental recovery all this marketing by RE is just gimmicks.


I expect long slow further declines...money isn't there simply. Pretend can only last so long before ultimate liquidation.


Freedom 1789-2012

Unless of course we end up like Zimbabwe or early last century Germany. The every shack will be worth trillions of dollars.

51   dunnross   2012 Aug 19, 9:00am  

lostand confused says

Unless of course we end up like Zimbabwe or early last century Germany. The every shack will be worth trillions of dollars.

We will definitely not wind up like Zimbabwe any time soon. We will most likely wind up like Japan of the last 20 years. Fed has only printed 2.5T so far. They need to print another 10T, at least, just to get all the banks out of hock. Only then, we can talk about any kind of inflation. Basically, the private debt needs to go back to 0, and it's nowhere even close, now. So, all you housing bulls out there - you can dream and salivate all you want at the prospect of housing market improving, but it ain't gonna happen.

52   tatupu70   2012 Aug 19, 10:09am  

RentingForHalfTheCost says

the only way you break even or make money is appreciation of the aging wood and nails. Good luck with that.

The wood and nails don't appreciate. It's the land underneath them...

53   tatupu70   2012 Aug 19, 11:07am  

WhyPee says

Considering "land" can be picked up in all 48 contiguous states for under $800/acre, you're still deluded.

Sure--just not the land I'd want to live on.

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