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Wow, Shiller predicting a flat market... Yea! We've definitely passed the bottom!
Shiller is by no means a perma bear. If you watch his finance course on iTunes University, you will see that he is very much pro finance and bullish.
The income bit:
True, that is why I see one trend with people renting out part of their house such as a basement apartment.
The income bit:
If you flip it then it looks awesome! Up up up! Buy housing now or be priced out forever!
Notice how when Bush was in office, he was at least breaking off a piece of the money to give to the workforce, that he showering the banks with, . But after 2008, salaries went to hell, and the narrative became, the republicans are getting rich while the middle class is disappearing.
Shiller is simply taking into account the amount of intervention that the federal government is willing to invest in to housing. The current administration has done everything it can to prop up housing, Shiller can't predict policy implementation, he can only adapt his insight because of it.
I bought a home this year, and love it but you would have to be a blind fool to think housing would be steady as it is without massive amounts of government intervention and complicity in allowing banks to stay solvent with "accounting" magic.
I bought a home this year, and love it but you would have to be a blind fool to think housing would be steady as it is without massive amounts of government intervention and complicity in allowing banks to stay solvent with "accounting" magic.
Shhh, that is too much intelligence for many around here. They won't get it. It has to keep going up, it just must. They need their home ATM again.
I'm just tired of "experts" here claiming they knew housing was going to rise all along, and that they predicted the market direction. Total BS.
I looked up some of the choice perma-bull guys who claim they predicted housing would jump up in price, and I found no post from 2011 that predicted the following:
1) Forever QE
2) Super Low inventory levels
None of the perma-bulls who are members of this forum predicted those two huge factors, and neither did Shiller.
The perma bull parrots simply got lucky that this administrations policies matched up with their opinion which they continued parroting from 2009-2011, even as housing was taking a beating. There's no magic or "expert analysis here", just a broken clock being right twice a day. Good job.
Nope,
The first thing I learned from finance 101 is learning about the federal reserve, particularly Greenspan. Of course, BB is that person now.
Bernanke is as predictable as Porne. You'll know exactly what happens next. Obama is just as transparent. I understand the politics of it but Obama's thinking is easy to figure out. The fed is a one person show so there is no politics involved making things even easier to predict.
I just said throw out the rent/buy calculator because it is junk. Buy in a buyer's market is never a mistake.
You may have thought it, but you didn't post those two factors I mentioned above as a coherent thought on Patrick.net at least until AFTER the inventory free fall and Bernanke announced forever QE.
The income bit:
misleading.
when home prices and interest rates go down (from 2006 level), income NEEDS to go down as well to maintain the same level of housing affordability and standards of living.
Also I didn't see where you predicted forever QE.
+1
Especially the particular type of QE which QE3/4 was/is.
I'll let you know when I care about someone on the internet talking about how much money they have.
Actually, one of my post got 4 likes, but that's besides the point.
Okay, you can attack my credibility, and slander me, that's ok. But let's make it more interesting shall we?
Patrick can easily confirm if RentingForHalfTheCost is my alternate ID, or if I'm using any alternate accounts at all.
If I'm using any alternate accounts in this thread or RFHTC is my other account like you claim, then I pay you $5,000 cash. No argument, no haggling, I go to my credit union and write you a cashiers check for $5,000. I'll send it to Patrick, and he can hand it to you at the next Patrick.net coffee meet.
If I'm NOT using any alternate accounts or RFHTC is NOT my alt account like you claim, then you pay me $5,000 in the same manner (cashier's check).
You want to put some money behind your words, or do you want to just accept the reason why people like my post and dislike yours is because they agree that you're no great predictor of anything?
Surely, $5,000 is nothing for someone who "made multi-millions" building a real estate empire in Concord.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/robert-shiller-home-prices-remain-relatively-stagnant-next-164618720.html;_ylt=At_88szWEMy1JAbQTEdoLZeiuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTN1Ymg2cHBtBG1pdANGaW5hbmNlIEZQIE1lZ2F0cm9uIDIEcGtnAzhiYTllZmI3LTMwZjAtM2JjYS05ZDhhLTk0ZDhkMGFjODg1ZQRwb3MDMQRzZWMDbWVnYXRyb24EdmVyAzBkMDZlMjczLWIxYjgtMTFlMi1iZjZmLTdkYjFkMjZkOWM3OQ--;_ylg=X3oDMTFkcW51ZGliBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3BtaA--;_ylv=3?vp=1