patrick.net

I don’t think the problem is solved. It is just sinking so slowly that it does not matter… yet.

Sort of like the Tower of Pisa, huh. They just continue to shore it up the best way that they can.

BayQT~

It is just difficult to build structure for earthquakes because there are some many different forms and types. I really think we should have hydralic dampening devices. An active dampening foundation should stand a better chance.

How likely is this to happen? I mean, is it cost effective enough or do you think builders will just figure it's cheaper to build another traditional style house when the old one falls down?

How likely is this to happen? I mean, is it cost effective enough or do you think builders will just figure it’s cheaper to build another traditional style house when the old one falls down?

Of course they rather have buildings that fall down every few years... :(

Sort of like the Tower of Pisa, huh. They just continue to shore it up the best way that they can.

But they will not fix the problem even if they can... otherwise, there will be no Tower of Pisa.

What was I thinking? Builders wanting to build something that lasts????
Silly me. :?

otherwise, there will be no Tower of Pisa.

There will still be a tower, but it won't be the leaning tourist attraction anymore. (that's what you meant isn't it Peter?)

There will still be a tower, but it won’t be the leaning tourist attraction anymore. (that’s what you meant isn’t it Peter?)

Yes, there will be "some tower around the town of Pisa" but no "Tower of Pisa".

Thanks for the lovely picture of the collapsed building BayAreaQT. Very nice of you.

Hmmm...I guess he didn't like the photo. :evil: I'm so bad.

BayQT~

It is just difficult to build structure for earthquakes because there are some many different forms and types. I really think we should have hydralic dampening devices. An active dampening foundation should stand a better chance.

If I remember right, some skyscrapers actually do have hydraulic dampening.
In terms of landfill areas, it's pretty hard to prevent liquefaction, because the actual soil gives way, possibly negating foundational and structural retrofits. Whole office buildings in Japan have sunk down a few stories (under ground level) from liquefaction. I think the best defense is to sink pillings deep through the landfill to bedrock--perhaps someone here knows for sure. This is what I see done along water, and I'm glad to be on bedrock! :)

Now, regarding MP’s Marina’s whoop-de-doo dream house….there are just folks who have money to throw at anything and will find words to justify it. Granted, it is probably “prime” property (what IS a good, working definition of “prime”?) but…wow…that’s a lot of money. $400K over asking? How many offers could there have been? Just wondering….

Now lets think about this.

If there was only one buyer, then the buyer blew 400K.

If there were more buyers then the buyer blew 400k, why?
The sellers were supposedly venture capitalists or the like. I would probably guess they would know the current market price, right?

They might have listed low to start a bidding war, or to unload. BUT, if they asked market price (current market) then the buyers blew 400K.

I guess money must not really matter to some people.
Maybe there are lots of wealthy people? Good luck to them.
Imagine selling 400K over asking. Well done sellers.

Hope they bought well or did they blow 600K.

."..see how many of them have changed hands in the past year or so…anyone wanna help? We could each pick a town… "

Jamie, I checked a few properties in my "neck of the woods" (Marin); here's a few random ones. I'm sorta surprised at the numbers bought/sold within a couple of years.

Kentfield 4/4: last sold 7/00 for $700K, now asking $1.3M
San Rafael: 4/2: last sold 5/02 for $600K, now $950K (optimistic!)
San Anselmo: 2/1 cottage, last sold 11/02 for $525K, now $750K (ditto)
San Anselmo: 2/2 cottage, last sold 7/04 for $625K, now $700K (loss)
Greenbrae: 3/2, last sold 2/05 for $1.33M, now $1.35M (uh-oh)
San Rafael: 3/3, last sold 1/05 for $715K, now $750K (oops)

@AntiTroll: Maybe there are lots of wealthy people?

There are tons and tons of wealthy people! And foreigners too! And the Marina is the only place they want to live in the entire world!

Also: front cover of AZ republic: WATER SHORTAGE. stop all construction now.

I asked my "investor" friend who have bought properties in AZ about water rights... he said "What water rights?"

There are tons and tons of wealthy people! And foreigners too! And the Marina is the only place they want to live in the entire world!

It's going to get very crowded.

There are tons and tons of wealthy people! And foreigners too! And the Marina is the only place they want to live in the entire world!

It’s going to get very crowded.

The place will sink under its own weight.
But wait, they could use a new sales angle:
Marina: Venice of the Future!â„¢

No offense, but Venice is not exactly a nice place to live. Water quality is often less than ideal...

More from Ben's blog:

"The FHLB of Pittsburgh said on Thursday it will restate over four years of financial results, mainly due to derivatives accounting errors."

"Half of the 12 FHLB regional member banks are now restating earnings for similar reasons." There was a time when talk of derivatives problems was taken more seriously. Any one of these banks could be a bigger mess than Enron.

Will there be OTC derivatives meltdown in October?

I think the potential for liquefaction in the Marina has been greatly overstated here. New Marina homedebtors can simply reinforce thier foundations using the tons of cash they've all made from the perpetually rising equity of their homes. It's a well known fact that fresh crisp new $100 bills can stop liquefaction dead in its tracks. Nuff said... :-P

Harm,

You are TOO much! LOL!

BayQT

It’s a well known fact that fresh crisp new $100 bills can stop liquefaction dead in its tracks. Nuff said…

Handy tip.

Any other handy around the home uses for cash.
Are they any good for cleaning ovens? or maybe mulching in the garden?

Rick,

In AZ water = real estate

Maybe this is an oppurtunity for a forward thinking person to utilise eco friendly technologies in developments of unique properties. Sounds good.

Another article I notice on the Arizona Republic home page today is how Phoenix rents are going up thanks to their 45% increase in real estate just in the last 12 months alone.

Another article I notice on the Arizona Republic home page today is how Phoenix rents are going up thanks to their 45% increase in real estate just in the last 12 months alone.

Renters will be doomed. DIE RENTERS DIE :evil:

I must have been possessed by Bull$hitter.

I must have been possessed by Bull$hitter.

Yeah, Peter! Snap out of it already!

BayQT~

If the US housing market bubble bursts, how much impact will be felt there?

Not sure. But they are smart enough to realize their own housing bubbles and are taking steps to contain them. Me think that they are aware of the US situation and are positioning themselves to bebefit from the bust.

Will the Chinese get bit by American greed? Or is there a more sinister plan in China’s hands to somehow economically destabilize America?

Huh?

I Think the American's will be hit by their own greed.
GREED IS BAD, should use that line in a movie someday.

The Chinese will probably be fine, as they have worked hard, and have not been greedy. (mmmm not totally sure on that one though).
After all, the new bankruptcy laws will probably protect them.

Renters will be doomed. DIE RENTERS DIE :devil:

Peter P,
What are you thinking. Not good for business.

Renters will be doomed. BLEED RENTERS BLEED. :devil:

Will the Chinese get bit by American greed? Or is there a more sinister plan in China’s hands to somehow economically destabilize America?

Well, in the past few years, China has enjoyed a huge windfall from American consumption. I don't have precise figures on hand, but what do the produce that we consume? Electronics, furniture, home improvement stuff, etc. If America slows down their consumption binge, I think China will feel it. Haven't they also made us a few loans?

Rick,
they have better policy in tucson. you arent allowed certain plants, water usage limits, etc. the problem is the kinds of people in tucson allow for this( there arent so many big biz types ), phoenix people are a different story… most of them dont really know anything about living in the desert.

Maybe somebody has to step up and be a leader by example. After all, you can regulate till the cows come home but people will lose interest that way.
If you lead by example then people will probably try to duplicate what is done if it is successfull. It also becomes a marketing advantage because customers will like to feel as if they are doing the right thing.

@AntiTroll,

Any other handy around the home uses for cash.
Are they any good for cleaning ovens? or maybe mulching in the garden?

Intriguing suggestions. Not sure about oven cleaning, but I bet you can use it to grow cabbage & lettuce.

The Sydney Olympic stadium was built on landfill, it had sunk enough before the start of the 2000 games where the top seats in the stadium had the view blocked from the stadium roof overhang. Fun stuff.

One thing I did notice after being away from looking at RE for 4 weeks was that the prices had dropped in the areas we had been tracking - the peninsula to the Sth Bay.

Also - MP has to be a realtor, the way he talks about the market is way too realtor like...

Intriguing suggestions. Not sure about oven cleaning, but I bet you can use it to grow cabbage & lettuce.

I actually sleep better at night, when I snuggle under my dooner full of $100 bills.

Nice quote on people living in the Marina from this article:
http://tinyurl.com/7sxlz

Reality suggests that the only people qualified to live in the Marina are Olympic swimmers -- those capable of treading back to shore after the geologic forces turn the faux neighborhood to its original watery state.

Also - MP has to be a realtor, the way he talks about the market is way too realtor like…

Poser is more like it. Uh, oh --did I just violate my own standard about not getting personal? 8-O Me SO sorry....

I could never live in an area that had little or no relationship to the outdoors. I need a tree at LEAST once in awhile! Other than the houses with bay views on the main drag across from the water, the place is wall to wall cement. Quite generic and character-less.

Jack-
Sounds like you're in a Primeâ„¢ location--at least for the likes of you and me.

Interesting historical trivia - at least I'd not heard this:

A couple of miles northwest along the city’s shore, the Marina District is also partly built on landfill—of a somewhat different kind. After the massive 1906 earthquake destroyed most of the city, developers needed someplace to dump all the rubble from the downtown area. They used the crumbled remains of buildings to extend yet another portion of the city out into the water, helping to create the site of the Panama-Pacific International Exposition to celebrate the opening of the Panama Canal in 1915.

The truth of the matter is people just don't care,'' said Aldo Congi, vice president of McGuire Real Estate. ``Those that want to live in the Marina are willing to take the chance. There is so much confidence among consumers now that nothing seems to matter -- and that includes earthquakes.''

MP,
It would appear that consumers of RE in Marina appear to have high confidence and tend not to care about risks?
Could it be they have been a little too easy with their spending?
Just like everybody else I bet.

I actually sleep better at night, when I snuggle under my dooner full of $100 bills.

The aroma of a fresh $100 stack is one of the most wonderful, almost as wonderful as the smell of BBQ lobster.

The aroma of a fresh $100 stack is one of the most wonderful, almost as wonderful as the smell of BBQ lobster.

Haven't tried sleeping with BBQ lobster.