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Are you seriously saying to me that the Monterey houses that sold for the median price for March of 438K rent for $831?
No, I'm just saying that the average price in Monterey (for all places for sale) divided by the average rent in Monterey (for all rentals) came out to 527.
Are you seriously saying to me that the Monterey houses that sold for the median price for March of 438K rent for $831?
No, I'm just saying that the average price in Monterey (for all places for sale) divided by the average rent in Monterey (for all rentals) came out to 527.
Well then the data doesn't reflect the reality of the price to rent differential in the area. A figure more like half the one you mention would probably be closer to the actual current purchase vs rental costs.
But it does reflect the reality that you can rent much more cheaply than you can buy in Monterey. Maybe not the same thing, but even if I could adjust for size and quality of rental to make them the same as houses, the list would come out in exactly the same order.
The worst deals for buyers are in the most expensive places, like Monterey.
Think of it this way: can you buy the average place in Monterey, rent it out, and make a profit? The median price seems to be about $584,550:
http://patrick.net/housing/graphs.php?uaddr=Monterey%2C+ca
You'd have to rent it for about $3,965 just to break even:
http://patrick.net/housing/calculator.php?uaddr=Monterey%2C+&rent=3%2C965&price=584%2C550
Can you get that much rent for that average house?
I'm not saying the houses represent good value. I'm saying that they don't represent anywhere near as poor value as the 527 figure suggests. It's an attractive and typically overpriced coastal city, but it is certainly not in Palo Alto's league for sky high purchase to rental prices.
Patrick, you keep saying that over and over, but the idea that there is some cosmic law that demands that housing in any particular area must have a price such that renting it out is profitable is obviously untrue.
What I'm saying is only that you lose much more money owning than renting the same thing in those areas.
It's your choice whether or not to burn great piles of money for the intangible feeling of ownership while living in the same quality house that you would as a renter.
I do also think the price to rent ratio has gotten further out of whack lately, but I don't have good historical data to prove that. Only data to prove that it is an exceptionally bad deal to own in San Francisco or Santa Clara.
A good thought experiment: would you accept $3,000 a month to be called a renter, with no other change in lifestyle? Seems like pretty easy money to me.
A good thought experiment: would you accept $3,000 a month to be called a renter, with no other change in lifestyle? Seems like pretty easy money to me.
I sure as hell would.
My GOD, what WOULD the Jones family think of us!
Yes I think that's the real issue.
A good thought experiment: would you accept $3,000 a month to be called a renter, with no other change in lifestyle? Seems like pretty easy money to me.
What if you have to move every few years? If you have kids this can be a real drag. Plus moving is a big, expensive hassle.
I agree with you in theory, but there is a value in ownership that you are not recognizing - stability. Of course, I'm not suggesting stupid purchases, but I do think paying a bit more to own is worth it. Right now, there are a lot of homes in the BA that fit that requirement.
What if you have to move every few years? If you have kids this can be a real drag. Plus moving is a big, expensive hassle.
In my own experience, landlords usually do not want you to move and will keep the rent low enough to have you stay. It's a pain and it's lost rent for them if you move and they have to find another renter.
Sure, it could happen that your rental house gets sold or something like that, but as a rule, if you want to keep renting somewhere, you probably can, at least if your landlord is a human. Corporate landlords are evil, and are more likely to do evil things.
Some data just from today's craigslist. Lots of 3/2 rentals under 1500/mth.
http://monterey.craigslist.org/apa/2961763346.html
Whoever lived in your mid-500k home and was paying 3k/mth wasn't really getting a good deal.
You know you should put up the ZILLOW price of these rentals next to their rental prices. Zillow has actually gotten much more accurate this past year in their zestimates.
http://monterey.craigslist.org/apa/2954408531.html
Here's a $1300 3/2 rental ... 262 8th St, Soledad, CA
The ZESTIMATE is $121K for the property...
Why would you RENT This place for $1300 when you could buy it with 10% down for a monthly PITI of of between $850-$900 a month!
That's a savings of $400-$450 a month... over $5K a year.
If you can afford to buy in many areas where rents are high... it makes sense to buy.
I don't know where those rentals you found on Craigslist are... But in all fairness, you should ZILLOW the price of the home.. then compare that to rents. That will give a much more accurate depiction of the market.
Zillow has become the DEFACTO standard for all potential home buyers I know... They rarely will pay more than what the zillow Zestimates... unless upgrades are obvious as compared to neighbors.
I noticed a couple rentals in very nice parts of Monterey,close to the waterfront that are a little out of whack Zestimate vs. Rental price wise. But rental parity is a lot closer than many think.
If an area has a hundred 2 bedroom apartments for rent... and ten 3 bedroom houses. Of course the average rent will be lower and the price of homes will look unaffordable. But I'm not seeing the glut of homes for rent that are dramatically cheaper than owning.
hanera says
Bigsby says
Where is this data from and how old is it?
It's mostly from Craigslist from the last two years.
The list is outdated because rents have shot up significantly. http://www.mercurynews.com/real-estate/ci_20416459/new-home-construction-pick-up-soon-report-suggests?source=autofeed#
Yup, that is why I pay less now than in 1997. Incredible the rent increases!
1997 is 15 years ago. His data is for the last two years, since then rentals had increased sharply.
therefore rent vs buy isn't the right pricing indicator
Fine,then one should not buy into what is NOT affordable and if they do then they should NOT be looking at govt. for HAMP kinda of rescue scheme. We are talking about something that is being financially responsible when we compare buy vs rent for the pricing indicator.
You know you should put up the ZILLOW price of these rentals next to their rental prices. Zillow has actually gotten much more accurate this past year in their zestimates.
Zillow is nothing but inaccurate to me. I have only used it a few times and it is always laughable. It said my home was valued at 300K the day I sold it for 540K.
Go to Craigslist and show me say a 1600 sq ft house in 93940 that is renting for $1000. They don't exist. I do see a centrally located APARTMENT listed for $1600 though. A whole 1 bedroom and 1 bathroom with 800sq ft of glorious living. Oh, sorry, there is a property listed in the sub 1k range. That beauty is a whopping 390sq ft and a mere $995.
Again, just words describing data instead of the real data to back up your claims. You are challenging Patricks data. He has it already and you can see it. What you have is just words with nothing referenced. Keep typing your own words. If you type enough then everyone has to believe your conclusions. That is the way the lazy mind works. ;)
It is absolutely amazing how crazy people get when the cumulative data collected over 2 years does not agree with their few experiences. One thing people fail to consider is that you know your situation to a high degree of truth (that is if you don't lie to yourself), but there is a lot of distorted information sent around even from your close friends. Many people don't want to say they overpaid for a house, or they pay little to rent. It is very similar to the fact when people talk about investing in stocks they always talk about them winning. Add to this distortion all the realtor and home builder propaganda out there and it makes it really hard for anyone to create an honest conclusion. Because I am in a position to buy a house in the bay area I have made it almost another job of mine to cut through this crap. This thread and how many people are all bent out of shape because the data doesn't make them look good, is just another distorted view on reality to me. Rather than dig into the data and understand the situation, it is much easier to just call it false.
I'm sure there are differences in the quality of rentals verses for sale homes that would merit a correcting factor, but nothing that large IMHO. If you think the values are off by 30-50% then maybe your assumptions also need to be scrutinized. It is much easier to criticize everyone else rather than turn the mirror on yourself though. Much in part to how the BA works in general.
Go to Craigslist and show me say a 1600 sq ft house in 93940 that is renting for $1000. They don't exist. I do see a centrally located APARTMENT listed for $1600 though. A whole 1 bedroom and 1 bathroom with 800sq ft of glorious living. Oh, sorry, there is a property listed in the sub 1k range. That beauty is a whopping 390sq ft and a mere $995.
Again, just words describing data instead of the real data to back up your claims. You are challenging Patricks data. He has it already and you can see it. What you have is just words with nothing referenced. Keep typing your own words. If you type enough then everyone has to believe your conclusions. That is the way the lazy mind works. ;)
What do you mean nothing referenced? Good grief. You posted one property that you supposedly thought confirmed Patrick's data. It does the exact opposite. Do you not trust your own eyesight? Look at the prices and rentals yourself rather than repeating the same old line. The prices on MLS and the prices on Craigslist show that the relationship between the two is nowhere near 527. Just because somebody says they took data from Craigslist for the last 2 years does not make that data accurate. We rented for seven years in Monterey before buying. I know the rental prices and I know the purchase prices in the area. I rather doubt 527 would have been an accurate figure at the very peak of the market. It's so far off the mark now that it is ridiculous.
Zillow has actually gotten much more accurate this past year in their zestimates.
http://monterey.craigslist.org/apa/2954408531.html
Here's a $1300 3/2 rental ... 262 8th St, Soledad, CAThe ZESTIMATE is $121K for the property...
If this was actually true I would drive down to Soledad tomorrow and purchase this place as a rental. I don't see me driving anywhere tomorrow though, because either the ZESTIMATE is bogus or the rental amount is too expensive. 121K is Phoenix pricing.
I'm sure there are differences in the quality of rentals verses for sale homes that would merit a correcting factor, but nothing that large IMHO. If you think the values are off by 30-50% then maybe your assumptions also need to be scrutinized. It is much easier to criticize everyone else rather than turn the mirror on yourself though. Much in part to how the BA works in general.
Er, no. Go to Craigslist and find me a the equivalent of a $500,000 house in Monterey that rents for $950. Show me a $1m house that rents for $1900. They simply don't exist. Nowhere near. If I knew from experience that Patrick's figures were true, then I wouldn't be posting, but I know that they are far from correct. Very far.
I'm sure there are differences in the quality of rentals verses for sale homes that would merit a correcting factor, but nothing that large IMHO. If you think the values are off by 30-50% then maybe your assumptions also need to be scrutinized. It is much easier to criticize everyone else rather than turn the mirror on yourself though. Much in part to how the BA works in general.
Er, no. Go to Craigslist and find me a the equivalent of a $500,000 house in Monterey that rents for $950. Show me a $1m house that rents for $1900. They simply don't exist. Nowhere near. If I knew from experience that Patrick's figures were true, then I wouldn't be posting, but I know that they are far from correct. Very far.
Well, that is not what the data says. You can type it all you want, but the data says otherwise. Nice how to can easily criticize someone else's data without anything to back it up except words. Very nice.
Well, that is not what the data says. You can type it all you want, but the data says otherwise. Nice how to can easily criticize someone else's data without anything to back it up except words. Very nice.
And as I keep saying, his data is obviously wrong in terms of being representative. This house, just round the corner from me, went pending almost immediately:
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/5-Linda-Vista-Dr-Monterey-CA-93940/19311805_zpid/
I'd say it was pretty aggressively priced and that is why it has been snapped up quickly. But apparently, that property rents for below $1000 according to what you are saying. The reality is that it would rent for well over $2000. That doesn't make it good value in a rent/price calculator scenario, but it also quite obviously doesn't mean it matches the 527 figure. So like I keep saying, the reality is way below that number. And yes, I could do this for every single property in Monterey that is currently listed on MLS.
You know this is a joke just spot checking the #'s.
Lafayette @ 850, really?
A 850K house rents for 1K? really?
It's a craigslist data dump. The average ad for rent on CL is a one/two bedroom apartment.
Well, that is not what the data says. You can type it all you want, but the data says otherwise. Nice how to can easily criticize someone else's data without anything to back it up except words. Very nice.
The data Patrick posted, while interesting, really says very little other than homes are expensive in nice places. The fact that a crappy studio apartment is being measured against an ocean front mansion is, well, useless. Patrick says he believes in aggregate these extremes cancel each other out, but I think he's not correct.
Look at home rentals in Marin. I am very familiar with this area because my brother has been renting there. In good school districts, a home that sells in the 750k - 800k range rents for about $3500 - $4000.
Since buying would cost a bit more, one would think that you should rent. But most of the buyers there are just waiting to sell when prices go up. In my brother's situation, he was forced out because the home went into a short sale. He had to move out of the school district. He is now looking to buy, but he wishes he'd bought last year. His wife and kids do too.
My situation is a bit unique in that I am both a renter and a landlord. I agree that it is foolish to overpay for a property, but my view of "overpaying" is a bit different than many here.
Buying in the so-called fortress neighborhoods in CA is still a good investment if you do it right. This is what I am presently looking to do and why I come to this site.
Bigsby is right. This data is not useful because it is not comparing apples to apples.
The data Patrick posted, while interesting, really says very little other than homes are expensive in nice places.
I think you missed the one and only point of all of this.
The data says that houses in expensive areas are not merely expensive -- they are more expensive than renting the same thing. By a huge amount.
Which is irrational.
My own theory (well, I picked up the idea from John Talbott) is that those ridiculous prices are driven entirely by status-seeking. You just don't get status points from your friends by renting, no matter how nice the house is.
The data Patrick posted, while interesting, really says very little other than homes are expensive in nice places.
I think you missed the one and only point of all of this.
The data says that houses in expensive areas are not merely expensive -- they are more expensive than renting the same thing. By a huge amount.
Which is irrational.
My point is that it is not the same thing. You said this yourself:
rowemoore says
First of all, are you comparing apples to apples?
No, just rents to prices no matter what kind of place it is
The kind of place it is does matter. And the comps get even more skewed because most rentals are apartments and most sales are single family homes.
From a strictly anecdotal view, I think renting is a slightly better deal in an apples to apples situation. But often if it is a single family home in a nice neighborhood the landlord is probably going to sell or move back in before you're ready to leave.
Another example: I don't know what the specific historic p/e in Santa Clara is, but it is currently possible to buy a 600K (sometimes less) house that rents for about 2500. That's a p/e of 20 which is in line with general historic p/e-s.
That's the problem with you people. You seem to think that there is some "magic" historic p/e which must be the same all the time, but, the fact is, when the last time the stock market was at its historic low, it was 1933, and all stocks, across the board had a PE ratio of 6. If all areas had a PE of 6 right now, we'd be back to 1975 nominal levels.
Zillow has actually gotten much more accurate this past year in their zestimates.
http://monterey.craigslist.org/apa/2954408531.html
Here's a $1300 3/2 rental ... 262 8th St, Soledad, CA
The ZESTIMATE is $121K for the property...
If this was actually true I would drive down to Soledad tomorrow and purchase this place as a rental. I don't see me driving anywhere tomorrow though, because either the ZESTIMATE is bogus or the rental amount is too expensive. 121K is Phoenix pricing.
Better start up your car! Why dont you just zillow the property and neighborhood? Its not that difficult. The house 2 doors down sold for $100k and this house sold for $135k in 2008. Look at the data. The schools must suck or it must be a bad part of soledad. I do not know the area, but you cannot deny owning would be much more affordable than renting.
We are at rental parity or better in almost all non-fortress communities in the US.
Rents could drop... But they are not in any meaningful way dropping now. Keep your head in the sand if you like, but renting in most areas is more expensive than owning.
You posted one property that you supposedly thought confirmed Patrick's data. It does the exact opposite.
I posted one property to show the stupidity of doing that. Patrick has crunched though the whole data for the last 2 years. And all you jokers are doing to punch holes in it is to talk about your own piece of crap property. Glad you saw the stupidity, because it was right out there in front of you. Now, can we go back to talking about the real data? Or do we have to keep talking about what you think about your house situation. ;)
Better start up your car! Why dont you just zillow the property and neighborhood? Its not that difficult. The house 2 doors down sold for $100k and this house sold for $135k in 2008. Look at the data. The schools must suck or it must be a bad part of soledad. I do not know the area, but you cannot deny owning would be much more affordable than renting.
The list that Patrick compiled is real people selling properties and renting properties. Real live people, not some Zillow estimate site that is prone to errors. Zillow the houses yourself. You knuckleheads are the ones challenging the data and then asking others to do the work for you. The data looks perfect for my area. I believe it is near perfect for other areas from what I can tell. I am not challenging it, you and the other inspector gadgets in this group are.
San Mateo = 360
My rent = 3K for a house that can sell for 1.2m+
Let me do the math for you, cause it is tough. 1.2m/3k = 400. I'll break it down better cause I jumped ahead a few steps there. 1200/3k. First we can start with taking the 3 and dividing it into the 12. It comes out to a nice 4 value. Now we have two 0's left and we can just take them both and tack them on the end of the 4 we already have. That gives us the 400! What was the number that Patrick posted again from the craigslist database? 360 you say. Wow, that is pretty close.
For months now, all you fools have been saying rents are rising, buy now or you will get priced out. Now the raw data is too shocking for you to comprehend. Tough to get that reality slap I'm sure. Some of the side effects of having the weight of a 30yr over-leverage note on your back. Sorry for your loss.
You posted one property that you supposedly thought confirmed Patrick's data. It does the exact opposite.
I posted one property to show the stupidity of doing that. Patrick has crunched though the whole data for the last 2 years. And all you jokers are doing to punch holes in it is to talk about your own piece of crap property. Glad you saw the stupidity, because it was right out there in front of you. Now, can we go back to talking about the real data? Or do we have to keep talking about what you think about your house situation. ;)
Hmm, if you post a link to demonstrate the pointlessness of referencing a single property, then you'd be better served showing a rental that actually supported your argument, don't you think?
And the only stupidity here is your dogged persistence in ignoring the blatantly obvious. Are you so wrapped up in your own confirmation bias that everything has to tally with that at the expense of considering the like-for-like comparisons that are freely available for you to check? Really, what is so difficult to understand? His 'data' simply doesn't reflect the market. I don't know how or what information he gathered - whether he's taken the whole area, including Pebble beach, Carmel, Big Sur... and added those in to get inflated values on houses for sale and then contrasted them with a preponderance of low end apartment rentals or something else. BUT for the hundredth time, Monterey does not have a housing to rental ratio of 527. Why is it such a problem for you to accept that? It doesn't threaten you. It doesn't change your life. It simply indicates that the information that Patrick gathered for Monterey is seriously flawed.
Let me do the math for you, cause it is tough. 1.2m/3k = 400. I'll break it down better cause I jumped ahead a few steps there. 1200/3k. First we can start with taking the 3 and dividing it into the 12. It comes out to a nice 4 value. Now we have two 0's left and we can just take them both and tack them on the end of the 4 we already have. That gives us the 400! What was the number that Patrick posted again from the craigslist database? 360 you say. Wow, that is pretty close.
For months now, all you fools have been saying rents are rising, buy now or you will get priced out. Now the raw data is too shocking for you to comprehend. Tough to get that reality slap I'm sure. Some of the side effects of having the weight of a 30yr over-leverage note on your back. Sorry for your loss.
You seem very angry. That and very defensive. The figures might work for your area. They don't for Monterey and seemingly other areas. Fine. Why not wind your neck back in and accept that his data isn't entirely representative?
And I think most of us are capable of doing basic maths, though judging by your use of that Soledad drive property, I'd say you'd benefit from hitting the books.
Hmm, if you post a link to demonstrate the pointless of referencing a single property, then you'd be better served showing a rental that actually supported your argument, don't you think?
And the only stupidity here is your dogged persistence in ignoring the blatantly obvious. Are you so wrapped up in your own confirmation bias that everything has to tally with that at the expense of considering the like-for-like comparisons that are freely available for you to check?
You talking to me or yourself? That type of logic would be better served talking into the mirror. I am ready to buy. I have no bias, only the bias of the current data and the trends. I want to buy, but will only do it when the data says it is a good time. You, my friend, are littered with a biased tone. I give up, can't spend anymore time on you. Good luck to you.
You seem very angry.
I am very angry, we all should be. We have been and continue to be lied to by many people in this industry. I have seen families destroyed financially and the stress leading to breakups. I have seen people who were lied to believe that they can afford something find out that they couldn't. I have been lied to my face by these same people over and over. It still happens, here on this site and when I step out into the housing market in the BA. Everyone is on the take, no one has your best interest at heart. The housing market is all about profit, commissions, make it big without hard work, etc. etc. It has ruined this country, don't you see it. It is continuing to ruin this country. If I could I would destroy the current system and put all the realtors out of work. They are horrible and don't even realize how much pain and stress they have caused. I need to hit something alright, and it is not the books. It is the Mercedes driver that talks to the family that is just barely making a living and telling them that real estate will make you rich. They are not honest people, and you are close to joining them with your dribble. Look at the data, challenge the data with logical reasoning, but don't just wave your hand and try to make it all disappear. Data lives and is real, it can be challenged properly, but you are no where near proper in your arguments.
Done
The data Patrick posted, while interesting, really says very little other than homes are expensive in nice places.
I think you missed the one and only point of all of this.
The data says that houses in expensive areas are not merely expensive -- they are more expensive than renting the same thing. By a huge amount.
Which is irrational.
This may well be true, but by your own admission, the data you collected doesn't actually demonstrate that. You haven't gathered data on like-for-like properties, you've simply lumped everything together, which has completely skewed the results and basically made them worthless. Better to just stick with the rent/buy calculator.
You talking to me or yourself? That type of logic would be better served talking into the mirror. I am ready to buy. I have no bias, only the bias of the current data and the trends. I want to buy, but will only do it when the data says it is a good time. You, my friend, are littered with a biased tone. I give up, can't spend anymore time on you. Good luck to you.
I'm not biased, I was simply pointing out that if you are using this data to form an impression of value, then you are being seriously misled. The data flat out doesn't demonstrate that if I bought house X for Y price, then I'd be paying Z amount over the equivalent rental price. In that regard, the data is totally useless, and Patrick has basically said the same. It seems that it is you who is the only one unwilling to accept that.
Aptos is interesting because I didn't know you could rent there and the houses are more expensive than anywhere here until you are down near Carmel.
I am very angry, we all should be. We have been and continue to be lied to by many people in this industry. I have seen families destroyed financially and the stress leading to breakups. I have seen people who were lied to believe that they can afford something find out that they couldn't. I have been lied to my face by these same people over and over. It still happens, here on this site and when I step out into the housing market in the BA. Everyone is on the take, no one has your best interest at heart.
And where does personal responsibility and basic financial decision making come into this? Realtors are in the business of selling houses. I didn't walk into buying a house trusting them. I went into it by making a clear decision on what I could afford and then buying (or actually waiting 7 years to buy) a house that was acceptable to me. Many people were seriously misled, but plenty more people threw common sense out of the window and tried to make a fast buck. I have sympathy for some, but not all. It's the biggest financial commitment pretty much all of us make. A lot of people clearly didn't think carefully enough about it during the bubble years. Many, many people are to blame for that, and that list includes many of the buyers themselves.
The data flat out doesn't demonstrate that if I bought house X for Y price, then I'd be paying Z amount over the equivalent rental price. In that regard, the data is totally useless, and Patrick has basically said the same. It seems that it is you who is the only one unwilling to accept that.
Big hand wave to make the data go away. Go away data, I don't like you. :)
Many, many people are to blame for that, and that list includes many of the buyers themselves.
Very true and I agree. That doesn't remove the anger I have for a corrupt institution that is not there to help people. I have enough anger for everyone. ;)
The data flat out doesn't demonstrate that if I bought house X for Y price, then I'd be paying Z amount over the equivalent rental price. In that regard, the data is totally useless, and Patrick has basically said the same. It seems that it is you who is the only one unwilling to accept that.
Big hand wave to make the data go away. Go away data, I don't like you. :)
You still appear to not get what I'm saying. It's not a matter of wanting the data to go away, it's a matter of the data being completely unrepresentative. It does not inform on the relative value of any given purchase in comparison to equivalent rentals. Patrick has said the same.
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Using more than 5 million rents and prices, here are cities in the US ranked from best to worst deals for buyers, expressed as number of months of average rent it takes to buy an average house.
Best deal for buyers is El Mirage, AZ.
Worst deal for buyers is Newport Beach, CA.
If any reporters want to use this for a story, permission is granted as long as the story includes a live clickable link back to Patrick.net.
#ironmanisdansbitch