patrick.net

There's a lot of Yahoos coming as well.
They aren't exactly 49ers.

I can't take the cold weather, and my island prospects are still in the works...

NuttBoxer says

I keep seeing articles that say people are leaving California in record numbers.

I don't think they really do leave en masse. That's usually a journalistic technique to scare the Gov from raising taxes.

CL says

That's usually a journalistic technique to scare the Gov from raising taxes.

Ha, Has that ever worked here?

If you want to live in SF Bay Area, San Diego, etc. insist upon the elimination of density restrictions, put up by landlords and owners to keep rents and property costs high.

thunderlips11 says

If you want to live in SF Bay Area, San Diego, etc. insist upon the elimination of density restrictions, put up by landlords and owners to keep rents and property costs high.

Yeah, let's turn "SFBA, San Diego, etc." into this:

Wow-I have been out of San Diego for quite a while. Rents in Julian are 2100-2500-LOL! I guess the Imperial valley is the only cheap place in CA and maybe Barstow and Bakersfield-or has it gone up there too?

Straw Man says

Yeah, let's turn "SFBA, San Diego, etc." into this:

I see what you did there! Or this:

Or this.

It's an assault on the market to restrict density for no good reason other than "appearance" (actually, limit the supply to raise my profits).

I want cheap minimum wage hos to clean my house, mow my lawn, and serve me coffee - and bus themselves in from 2 hours away!

thunderlips11 says

want cheap minimum wage hos to clean my house, mow my lawn, and serve me coffee - and bus themselves in from 2 hours away

It is CA, who pays minimum wage, when everybody has their own illegal.

In fact, California ought to lead the way in Technology and Engineering and give the world the first Arcology.

lostand confused says

Wow-I have been out of San Diego for quite a while. Rents in Julian are 2100-2500-LOL! I guess the Imperial valley is the only cheap place in CA and maybe Barstow and Bakersfield-or has it gone up there too?

Julian still comes in under $2000 for most, but It's about an hour away. And if you go out to Borrego or Campo it's even less, but who wants that kind of commute?

NuttBoxer says

I can't take the cold weather, and my island prospects are still in the works...

There is always Texas. You could even try Arizona and/or New Mexico but they can and do get snow. Down here in Houston we see less than 10 days that it gets below 40. But I know, I know - it's Texas.

mmmarvel says

There is always Texas. You could even try Arizona and/or New Mexico but they can and do get snow. Down here in Houston we see less than 10 days that it gets below 40. But I know, I know - it's Texas.

Actually I have nothing against Texas. I like being near the ocean, maybe Corpus Christi...

NuttBoxer says

mmmarvel says

There is always Texas. You could even try Arizona and/or New Mexico but they can and do get snow. Down here in Houston we see less than 10 days that it gets below 40. But I know, I know - it's Texas.

Actually I have nothing against Texas. I like being near the ocean, maybe Corpus Christi...

You do realize your only options are:
1. Pay the higher rent.
2. Move.

Strategist says

You do realize your only options are:

1. Pay the higher rent.

2. Move.

I'm probably going with option 3, although hoping for option 4:

3. Wait for crash in rents.
4. Find savvy owner who anticipates crash and negotiates reasonable, slightly higher price than they will get after crash.

NuttBoxer says

I'm probably going with option 3, although hoping for option 4:

3. Wait for crash in rents.

4. Find savvy owner who anticipates crash and negotiates reasonable, slightly higher price than they will get after crash

Don't hold your breath while you wait ... just saying.

NuttBoxer says

Actually I have nothing against Texas. I like being near the ocean, maybe Corpus Christi...

Careful, saying you don't have anything against Texas can get you banned from PatNet. And Corpus is beautiful, if things were a bit different, I'd have no problem moving to Corpus. If things were real different I'd have a HUGE problem moving to ANYWHERE in California.

mmmarvel says

Don't hold your breath while you wait ... just saying.

Number 4 is a stretch, but the rental market will crash when everything else does during our second big leg down in this recession. I think it will happen before the end of the year.

Landlords have to charge what renters can afford or sit on empty units. A drop in the economy necessitates a drop in rent.

NuttBoxer says

Strategist says

You do realize your only options are:


1. Pay the higher rent.


2. Move.

I'm probably going with option 3, although hoping for option 4:

3. Wait for crash in rents.

4. Find savvy owner who anticipates crash and negotiates reasonable, slightly higher price than they will get after crash.

Your present landlord can easily raise your rent anyway. Besides, rents are a lot less volatile than home prices, and have rarely fallen.
The only way to escape ever rising rents is a very long lease, buying your own home with a fixed rate mortgage, or renting from your mother.
https://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/census/historic/grossrents.html

mmmarvel says

Careful, saying you don't have anything against Texas can get you banned from PatNet. And Corpus is beautiful, if things were a bit different, I'd have no problem moving to Corpus. If things were real different I'd have a HUGE problem moving to ANYWHERE in California.

The desert, and a few hours north of the bay are nice areas. Just not many jobs, unless you have a green thumb under the redwoods.

NuttBoxer says

mmmarvel says

Careful, saying you don't have anything against Texas can get you banned from PatNet. And Corpus is beautiful, if things were a bit different, I'd have no problem moving to Corpus. If things were real different I'd have a HUGE problem moving to ANYWHERE in California.

The desert, and a few hours north of the bay are nice areas. Just not many jobs, unless you have a green thumb under the redwoods.

Texas is a booming state. I read a couple of days ago that Houston is about to topple Chicago to become the third largest city in the country. Austin is growing very quickly, becoming the Silicon Valley of the South.
You will need to sacrifice something. If you want everything, you will be disappointed.

Strategist says

Your present landlord can easily raise your rent anyway. Besides, rents are a lot less volatile than home prices, and have rarely fallen.

The only way to escape ever rising rents is a very long lease, buying your own home with a fixed rate mortgage, or renting from your mother.

https://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/census/historic/grossrents.html

We've been at our current place for almost 4 years with only 1 rent increase coming this past month. Even with the increase we are about $300 under market on what we pay.

We all know the "Housing will only go higher" mantra before the 07 crash. Same is true for rents in that they cannot always go higher or at some point they surpass affordability for the average renter. This would create a surplus or rentals with no suitable tenants, followed by rent decline so owners aren't just sitting on empty units.

Supply and demand.

Strategist says

Texas is a booming state. I read a couple of days ago that Houston is about to topple Chicago to become the third largest city in the country. Austin is growing very quickly, becoming the Silicon Valley of the South.

You will need to sacrifice something. If you want everything, you will be disappointed.

Agreed if we start with the right measurement of what "everything" is. But I think most of us have been lied to and told that slaving for the bank and it's beneficiaries is normal. Replace that norm with free men working for themselves, and "everything" suddenly becomes a lot bigger.

NuttBoxer says

We've been at our current place for almost 4 years with only 1 rent increase coming this past month. Even with the increase we are about $300 under market on what we pay.

We all know the "Housing will only go higher" mantra before the 07 crash. Same is true for rents in that they cannot always go higher or at some point they surpass affordability for the average renter. This would create a surplus or rentals with no suitable tenants, followed by rent decline so owners aren't just sitting on empty units.

Supply and demand.

You will be surprised. Rents in the most desirable regions can keep going up with small pullbacks during recessions. What will change is the average renter getting a smaller place, and going from living in houses to living in apartments.

Strategist says

You will be surprised. Rents in the most desirable regions can keep going up with small pullbacks during recessions. What will change is the average renter getting a smaller place, and going from living in houses to living in apartments.

But someone has to live in those houses...

NuttBoxer says

Strategist says

You will be surprised. Rents in the most desirable regions can keep going up with small pullbacks during recessions. What will change is the average renter getting a smaller place, and going from living in houses to living in apartments.

But someone has to live in those houses...

Yes, the ones who can pay the highest rents.
At first it 50% of the population, then 25%, then 10%, 4%, 1%, .01%. Eventually, the old neighborhoods get torn down for their land, and you will end up with skyscrapers.
Every single region in the world with a high density of skyscrapers has first gone through this phenomenon.
While I was in Toronto, I visited some of the suburbs I lived in when in elementary school. Old simple homes were ridiculously priced, simply because of their proximity to the city center. Skyscrapers are coming right at them about to devour whole neighborhoods like a Tsunami.
Land prices can go up a million fold, but by building high up is how the free markets attempts to correct high prices due to a disequilibrium in demand and supply. The conventional wisdom on Parnet is, prices MUST fall. This cannot be further from the truth.

Strategist says

Land prices can go up a million fold, but by building high up is how the free markets attempts to correct high prices due to a disequilibrium in demand and supply. The conventional wisdom on Parnet is, prices MUST fall. This cannot be further from the truth.

Limited land, rising populations, and an influx of capital from anywhere in the world for any reason is the recipe for ever rising real estate prices.
The secret is now out.

NuttBoxer says

Replace that norm with free men working for themselves, and "everything" suddenly becomes a lot bigger.

Ya know, I've been on the other side, the 'free men working for themselves' and it's a boom and a bust. In a quick nutshell, if (big IF) you and your business make it, working for yourself has perks. You get (or can get) more money to take home every week. When the business is starting out you don't need to wonder what you'll be doing on the weekend, you'll be working. Let's look at the other side, if your business struggles - YOU struggle. You HAVE to pay rent and utilities before you pay anything else. You'd better pay your employees or you won't have any but you will have law suits. As you have to lay people off, YOU have to take up the slack and fill in those hours. If it's a retail shop, shop lifters become a headache. If you don't wake up, get up and go to work, you don't get any money that day. If the business goes under you have no unemployment insurance to fall back on. YOU are responsible for your own health insurance, taxes, unemployment insurance (aka put money away for the rainy day).

A buddy of mine (after he had been laid off) decided he would freelance. Working as an independent contractor he was commanding between $70 to $100 an hour - when he worked. He would get 3 month, 6 month, 12 month contracts but would also sit anywhere from 1 to 2 to 12 months between contracts. He didn't have health insurance, when one of his contracts ended, he didn't have unemployment, he wasn't paying his taxes. His life sucked.

Ironman says

He needs to look at job opportunities compared to housing costs there. Salaries could be lower but housing costs are A LOT lower, so the net effect is a higher quality of living!

He takes the $2000 a month that he is paying in rent in CA and comes to TX where he buys a house with two or three times the space and his mortgage is less than $1500. Our gas is presently $1.95 a gallon, pretty much everything is cheaper here - and no income tax either.

mmmarvel says

A buddy of mine (after he had been laid off) decided he would freelance. Working as an independent contractor he was commanding between $70 to $100 an hour - when he worked. He would get 3 month, 6 month, 12 month contracts but would also sit anywhere from 1 to 2 to 12 months between contracts. He didn't have health insurance, when one of his contracts ended, he didn't have unemployment, he wasn't paying his taxes. His life sucked.

I've been mostly contracting through temp agencies for 10+ years. Yes I do get occasional time off between jobs, but never very long. Helps I work in SW.

As far as the rest, think bigger. If you are forced to give some of your paycheck to someone, you aren't free. Any system derived from central banking is a slave system.

How would your friend be doing if he didn't have to pay taxes?

mmmarvel says

YOU struggle. You HAVE to pay rent and utilities before you pay anything else. You'd better pay your employees or you won't have any but you will have law suits. As you have to lay people off, YOU have to take up the slack and fill in those hours. If it's a retail shop, shop lifters become a headache. If you don't wake up, get up and go to work, you don't get any money that day. If the business goes under you have no unemployment insurance to fall back on. YOU are responsible for your own health insurance, taxes, unemployment insurance (aka put money away for the rainy day).

Not to mention the business owners are evil tale-not having the freedom to hire who you want for the job-even though you are paying wages out of pocket. You still have to follow all regualtions and when you go bust nobody cares.

When it comes to renting, the key is to make more household income than everyone else as a percentage of the renting population. If you're in the 50 percentile of household income, you're screwed and will be fighting for the few rentals available as the landlords increase the price. If you're in the top 5%, you're sittin' pretty because you don't have to compete with the masses. I always see beautiful homes for rent here in North San Diego in the Poway school district that are in the $3100-$4000 range...great choices for upper class, but sucks for middle class.

I see a lot of comments that seem to envision a scenario where everyone is pushed into communal housing. I agree if we continue to stay in large cities that are very difficult to run without some fairly large infrastructure, that usually includes government, this will probably be the case. However, I think we will decentralize in the future, move away from the cities and reclaim the land that is still very abundant across the US. A return to smaller community living, working for ourselves, and relying on local food production is the future I see. I think too much centralization is unhealthy(traffic, housing conditions, quality of "food" and water, stress), and we are heading for a long term decentralizing period over the next few hundred years.

NuttBoxer says

traffic, housing conditions, quality of "food" and water, stress

don't forget the herpes

If no water comes out of the taps in California apartments , would that affect the rent a landlord could charge ?

NuttBoxer says

I see a lot of comments that seem to envision a scenario where everyone is pushed into communal housing. I agree if we continue to stay in large cities that are very difficult to run without some fairly large infrastructure, that usually includes government, this will probably be the case. However, I think we will decentralize in the future, move away from the cities and reclaim the land that is still very abundant across the US. A return to smaller community living, working for ourselves, and relying on local food production is the future I see. I think too much centralization is unhealthy(traffic, housing conditions, quality of "food" and water, stress), and we are heading for a long term decentralizing period over the next few hundred years.

Here is my guess:
If you look at the past, faster transportation like subways and buses enabled the suburbs to grow, where real estate was cheaper.
Self driving cars which can go faster, and bullet trains (Tovobot has a thread on this) can bring more low priced areas closer to the cities.
There is also computer technology, which enables you to work from anywhere in the world.
In the future, the most beautiful areas with the best weather will command extraordinary prices, while cold frozen lands will command almost nothing.

marco says

If no water comes out of the taps in California apartments , would that affect the rent a landlord could charge ?

they will spin it as a luxury feature - and charge you triple to shower with fiji bottled.

Ironman says

You can live in Texas for 1/4 of the cost of CA!

Are you sure it costs that much in TX?

Ironman says

Just wait till January.

Why, are they going lower?

That's when the rest of the country sees the real value of California.
I'm willing to bet prices are going higher.
Hey, can I borrow your boat in January? I have a feeling you won't be using it.