patrick.net

Homer is a great representative for a Trump voter.

7 States, it's all up to 7 States to win the White House and if Bernie voters reject Clinton, Trump is fair game to win the White House

Logan Mohtashami says

7 States, it's all up to 7 States to win the White House and if Bernie voters reject Clinton, Trump is fair game to win the White House

If it's up to those 7 states, Trump will lose for certain. His best (only) chance is to turn Pennsylvania and Michigan in addition to Ohio and Wisconsin.

He isn't winning New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada will be a big longshot. Even Florida is going to be really tough.

November is a long way away. Between now and then, you're going to start seeing a lot of Trump supporters pushing back at the liars calling him and his supporters racists.

I think when we start treating THEM like they have been treating us. I think they will change.

I agree, November is a long way off. Trump has the whole summer and fall to expose the Hildabeast for the lying, cheating, swindling, hopeless, heartless, four flushing, back room dealing, vote selling, bribe taking, unfaithful, traitorous, murderous, sack of monkey shit that she is!
God bless America!
Holy shit!

Logan Mohtashami says

Everyone be mindful, general is much different than primary, 100 million votes more

Take a look at your first map

I'm afraid Clinton is doomed.
All he has to do is start sounding serious and talk in a slightly more PC way.
Liberal democracy was always an utopia. Humanity was born out of tribalism and will always gravitate back to it.

Logan Mohtashami says

7 States, it's all up to 7 States

Your picture would be more meaningful if it showed the 7 states in question.

zzyzzx says

Your picture would be more meaningful if it showed the 7 states in question.

Good Point
2004

First baseline map

2012

Ohio
Florida
North Carolina
Colorado
New Mexico
Arizona
Virginia

PA could be in play if Sanders voters go Anti Hillary

If Bernie Supporters go Full Hilary and Anti Trump Republican don't vote

8 Million plus for Clinton

In short, the only way Trump wins General is if Bernie's people go Nader on America again

Tenpoundbass says

you're going to start seeing a lot of Trump supporters pushing back a

who's doing the raping? who's doing the raping? we gotta build the wall to stop those drug dealing rapist mexicans!

block all the muslims!!

and its only fucking brown people calling him a racist anyways, they don't count! they are almost animals!

Be mindful that Clinton even though it's the primary has gotten most votes out anyone

Quigley says

I agree, November is a long way off. Trump has the whole summer and fall to expose the Hildabeast for the lying, cheating, swindling, hopeless, heartless, four flushing, back room dealing, vote selling, bribe taking, unfaithful, traitorous, murderous, sack of monkey shit that she is!

Also the Establishment is Trump's best tool. They promote him with every attempt they try to vilify him. They are the last people to be vilifying anyone.

I can't help but think the media had just ignored Donald even during his campaign. The media would have had his Trump fans pissed off for the media trying to pigeonhole Trump.
But the average voter, who Trump won over, would have been buffered from it. The media made Trump's case every time they attacked him. The coordinated efforts were also very telling.
He went from low 30's to high 40's just on that alone.

The Media empire now, can't NOT do what they do, try to spread false information. They are going to bombard the American people with so much anti-Trump propaganda.
People are going to run for shelter in the direction of Trump's camp.

Oh and Senior Asshole, in Mexico is apologizing now, and want's to talk about that wall.

SANTA MONICA, California — During an exclusive interview with Breitbart News, former Mexican President Vicente Fox apologized Wednesday for the vulgar language he has used regarding GOP frontrunner Donald Trump’s proposal to build a wall along the southern border and invited the likely Republican nominee to Mexico to see the border from the other side.

Earlier this year, Fox said that he would not pay for Trump’s “f*cking wall,” and called Trump ““Ignorant … crazy … egocentric … nasty … [a] false prophet.” Trump then called on Fox to apologize

On Wednesday, he did so — in an exclusive interview with Breitbart News — and added that he wanted Trump to come to Mexico to see the border from the other side.

“I apologize. Forgiveness is one of the greatest qualities that human beings have, is the quality of a compassionate leader. You have to be humble. You have to be compassionate. You have to love thy neighbor,” Fox explained to Breitbart News while sitting in the hotel of the J.W. Marriott in Santa Monica, California on Wednesday afternoon.

www.youtube.com/embed/i9QEAtcz3o8

Logan Mohtashami says

Be mindful that Clinton even though it's the primary has gotten most votes out anyone

True. But she was also in a two way race, unlike Trump, for most of the key part of past critical primary season.

Trump, despite being in 7, then 5, then 3 way races until yesterday after the Indiana Primary, has garnered 10.6 Million votes; Hillary 12.5 Million. If Kasich and/or Cruz dropped out in early April, when it was impossible for them to win the necessary delegates, Trump's numbers would probably be a few million higher.

Tenpoundbass says

Also the Establishment is Trump's best tool. They promote him with every attempt they try to vilify him. They are the last people to be vilifying anyone.

I expect we'll see more SJW Hoax style news, in the vein of the Self-Punching Art Trust Fund Dilletante. But even that sort of thing is backfiring.

The Media is such a closed circle of non-ideologically diverse self-selected professionals, they think running footage of Mexicans burning US Flags or signs about making California Part of Mexico garners sympathy and support for Hillary and against Trump.

"Nobody *I* know voted for Nixon*"

Of course, the Nixon in this race is Hillary. She will ruin the Democratic brand for a decade if elected.

* In fairness this was a self-effacing comment where the lady was criticizing herself for being blindsided due to her closed circle; but when in doubt, print the legend

Logan Mohtashami says

I am looking for Clinton to pick Castro as a V.P.

Isn't Fidel long in the tooth? Admittedly they are both from the same party.

Hillary 12.5 Million

How many of those came from Georgia, Texas etc? States that have zero impact in November

indigenous says

Isn't Fidel long in the tooth? Admittedly they are both from the same party.

Castro Sec. of the HUD

Democrats for once thinking long term here with the VP pick

Clinton is aged no need for experience pick and their isn't a Dem out there that could push a state for them.

Castro is young and Hispanic. 90% of the labor force growth and future new voting block are going to be Hispanic.

It would be a brilliant long term pay and will make it harder for Bernie to run against Clinton in 2020 which I expect to happen.

Ironman says

I can't believe a smart guy like you who understands numbers would actually make a statement like that

Trump Popular Vote Total - 10,644,396

Clinton Popular Vote Total 12,432,259

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_vote_count.html

Logan Mohtashami says

Trump Popular Vote Total - 10,644,396

Clinton Popular Vote Total 12,432,259

Trump - 3,5,7 way race until after last night's primary.
Clinton - 2 way race against a backbencher Socialist from one of the most rural and least populated states, who just beat her in another surprise victory.

If it had just been Trump vs. Cruz since March's Super Tuesday, Trump would probably surpass Hillary in votes.

thunderlips11 says

Trump would probably surpass Hillary in votes.

That is a variable that isn't part of the equation, the thesis was that Clinton has more votes than Trump.

What you can say, is that in the Primary, Republicans came out more to vote than Democrats

In either case, Primary voting is 100-120 million less votes.

The general is a much bigger platform that favors Dems

Mind that

Republicans have lost 5 out of the last 6 even with a favorable demographic profile and now they have a candidate that the party since I have been following can't fully get 100% behind

So, the only other thesis that gives Trump any kind of remote chance is...

Bernie Sanders, if Bernie's peeps don't come out to vote for Clinton, that levels the general election play ground

If the Dems are full force against a fractured Republican Party... that's not a winning ticket

Have to remember, Trump isn't a conservative, he is running as Republican. Many Americans who are conservative, can never vote for Trump.

I am giving you guys the number data runs, it's early, but if you want to win the general election, there are rules, mathematical rules that can bend but not break

:-)

Logan Mohtashami says

That is a variable that isn't part of the equation, the thesis was that Clinton has more votes than Trump.

She does. But if Biden or Warren or anybody else ran and it was a 3-way, she'd have way less than 12+M votes herself.

BTW, the very low democratic turnout, even with the kids coming out for Sanders, does not bode well for the Democrats.

Polls are polls, but they don't measure enthusiasm. As I said, somebody might say they hate Trump and love Hillary b/c all their Admin pals in the School Office agree.

Whether that somebody actually votes instead of buying Hagen Daas on the way home for another night with Sex in the City reruns with Fluffy the Cat at her side, that's another thing altogether.

The biggest trend right now is two-term altering party Presidencies, since 1992 and actually, with only a couple of exceptions (Carter, Bush the Elder) since 1952.

Hillary is going down. Any other dem candidate would have had an easier time, but she has way too dirty of a past to leave anything but the taste of shit in voters mouths when it's bought to light.
A few catchy memes about the Clinton foundation should do it.
Like the one I saw today: the only Clinton I'd want for president is George!

The orange colostomy bag couldn't pull higher numbers running against Ted Cruz, John "Charisma" Kasich, and Lil' Marco.

It's testament to Trump's distinctly pungent olfactory signature that Cruz - a man with the mass appeal of a box of fresh bug parts - lasted as far as Indiana.

Hillary pulled more votes running against stronger competition.

Quigley says

Like the one I saw today: the only Clinton I'd want for president is George!

Yup sort of like I would rather be ruled by the 1st 2000 names in the Boston phone book than 2000 names from Harvard.

Unfortunately I'm not sure the democrats share your opinion?

HydroCabron says

The orange colostomy bag couldn't pull higher numbers running against Ted Cruz, John "Charisma" Kasich, and Lil' Marco.

Right, because winning 3-way races, nevermind 5,6,7+ way races by more than 2-3% isn't considered a big win under any other circumstances... Nobody said Clinton didn't win big when he beat Bush the Elder by 6% in a three way race - the opposite, it was called a great victory.

New Hampshire with 35%+ of the vote in an 8 way race, more than double the nearest competitor (Kasich).
South Carolina by 10% in a 6 way race, about half again more than his nearest competitor (Cruz).
Nevada by 46% of the vote in a 5 way race, again more than double the nearest competitor (Cruz).
Deep South Alabama and Mississippi by 20% and 10% respectively.

I won't even get into the Northeast.

Other than the Midwest and Cruz' own Texas, Trump has won by greater than 3-4%, usually by double digits, in most of the 3-5 person races. Even beat a Senator in his own State (Rubio, Florida) by almost 20 pts.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_republican_nomination_map.html

All this, I might ad, in the face of record spending on Negative Ads, half of it directed at one candidate alone.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/12/us/politics/donald-trump-negative-ads.html

Only when Trump wins 3-5-7 way races by more than a few points, is it so blithely dismissed.

thunderlips11 says

BTW, the very low democratic turnout, even with the kids coming out for Sanders, does not bode well for the Democrats.

As long as Bernie's people come out for Clinton she should win barring anything major happening.

I am telling you guys this, I have never seen a Republican candidate where so many Republicans would never vote for ever in their life because of what Trump has said.

A basic rule of thumb of general, you have to united the base. Trump pulled off a Bill the Butcher run on Republicans which is a solid move for the Tea Party but with that style comes consequences.

First and most important task is to try somehow to unite the base because in a general election, you need the full backing of your entire party. All I saw on T.V. yesterday were many Republicans come on national T.V. and say no way they will support Trump.

Logan Mohtashami says

All I saw on T.V. yesterday were many Republicans come on national T.V. and say no way they will support Trump.

In the case of Bush that is probably a good thing.

No doubt he is going to have to come more to the center which will piss off some of the Pat netters.

Anecdotally I hear Bernie supporters are more likely to go with Clinton as the lesser of two evils.

indigenous says

In the case of Bush that is probably a good thing.

Trump can't be any more popular with the Tea Party Base but that's not going to work in a general election

Too many Republicans that won't vote because they're old school conservatives and his campaign is an abomination to the world conservative.

Irony of this is that this race is against Clinton, and even that won't matter because of how Trump has representative himself.

It will be interesting to see what Cruz does because he still has a decent Tea Party following.

However, Trump called his wife ugly basically and said his dad was part of the crew that killed Kennedy. If someone came after my family that way, no way under any circumstance I am backing that guy up into anything.

So, while Trumps tactic worked in primary.

KEY:---> He needs to unite the party or else it won't happen, it will be a landslide to the point they loose senate seats. Also, if he doesn't get the backing of people he can't go off on them either.

You're out of the fighting pits and into the arena

Similar things could be said about Hillary by the democrats.

Conservatives may not support Trump, but he is the lesser of two evils in their mind and will vote for him. IOW the bible thumpers will pick Trump over Hillary.

indigenous says

Similar things could be said about Hillary by the democrats

Clinton has issues with the far left progressives ( White Liberals) who are educated but don't really like capitalism even though they live in their cushy homes because of it.

That's a different problem than what Trump has.

However, to your point. If Bernie's people don't back Clinton up, then Trump is in play for the White House for sure

Logan Mohtashami says

If Bernie's people don't back Clinton up, then Trump is in play for the White House for sure

That appears to be the case to me.

And I hope I'm wrong.

OTOH how much could Trump really change the establishment? Clinton will continue the rot increasing the rate of the decline and probably creating more war.

indigenous says

Trump really change the establishment

As a Republican, I see a Trump costing the Republican Senate Seats.

Again, lets see how he acts from now until the convention in terms of trying to get the party to be united.

When you spill blood, you can't put that back in.

Win many battles but lose the war... my contention with my own party for years is that they almost act like they know they can't win a general election anymore but want congressional power. That kind of makes sense if you think about it.

However, Trump can even derail that, that right there is why I think some Republicans are scared and want to distance away from him.

The demographic map looks good for democrats going out for the next 50 years.

What is clear to me

No place for a Non Religious Middle Eastern Republican with a Scottish name :-)

In any case we will be fine because this is America! :-)

Lincoln was no conservative.

Logan Mohtashami says

In any case we will be fine because this is America! :-)

You mean this is the home of the reserve currency of the world. With better demographics than the others.

Clinton has issues with the far left progressives ( White Liberals) who are educated but don't really like capitalism even though they live in their cushy homes because of it.

------------

Now thats fucking funny. You're in lala land

indigenous says

You mean this is the home of the reserve currency of the world. With better demographics than the others.

Yes, Yes and still... We are Americans.. Americans don't beg.... we don't cry like little babies, we fight... that will always give us the edge... No Country for sissy people..

Of course they're cry babies of the left and right ... but they're still a small portion of the populous

But yes Demographics, the main thing that gave us a growth rut in this cycle will change soon and the entire world will be envious of our economics, dollar and demographics.

We own this world not the other way around!

errc says

Now thats fucking funny. You're in lala land

Bernie can't get the Black vote for a reason, outside of young kids and they should vote for Bernie, it's healthy to have a progressive out there for the kids to vote on

Registered Voters are usually homeowners 78% in 2012 election

But the real left people I deal with MMT and that group... Just cry every day about capitalism and how evil Corporations are ... Oh wait.. that's Bernie s line as well

When you want to be a real man, then you know crying like a little baby make you look soft... not what men do... what babies do

This is why Bernie can't get a revolution, we still have many men in this country who know what it is to be a man.

Like I have said, big place in my heart for Bernie... but... that act gets old... He is no socialist, if anything the real hard left where mad that he was actually paying for stuff.

That's why I like Bernie.. he rejected the MMT ....

Clap
Clap
Clap

Logan Mohtashami says

we fight... that will always give us the edge

So you are a neocon then?

Logan Mohtashami says

But the real left people I deal with MMT and that group

MMT is left? since when?

Trump has a terrible image problem with the liberal progressives who control the media, the PC police, and the militant SJW crowd. This means that to openly support him is hazardous to ones own image both socially and perhaps professionally. This means that the people for whom his message resonates aren't bring vocal about it, at least not openly. People who are tired of liberal policies, ObamaCare, the increasingly insane LGBT agenda, importing Muslims (and putting them in charge of national security), letting illegals stream in to ruin neighborhoods, cause crime, displace American workers, and screw up our social programs...the people who are against these things and also want an end to the ruinous free trade policies of the Clintons, these people are going to vote Trump.

What about the republicans who say never trump? Excepting the true elites, they will get to that voting booth and know they can't vote for the Hildabitch and her silly stupid policies. And then there are the gun owners: Hillary would be the most anti-second ammendment POTUS ever! Gun owners will be voting for Trump.

The GOP politicians, celebrities, and figureheads coming out now against Trump are just playing politics. You don't want to be for anything controversial as a politician, and Trump defines controversy. These politicians aren't representative of the Republican Party as a whole; they're just making some political hay. It means nothing.

When voters get into that private little booth, they will be pulling the orange handle, not the blue one.