patrick.net

DASKAA says

From a stock trading "investment" view TSLA was a big success, esp. for early adopters of its stock, no question. However the market gets more wrong then people tend to think, and as a company success has been modest. They cranked out pretty good cars, luxury EVs, but for a very high price and debt. Doubtful they can sustain, that's why the price is correcting now. Let's wait til next earnings.

I was picking up one thing at the Palm Beach Gardens, FL Whole Foods and outside there were guys with a Tesla offering rides or etc.

Funny; if that car were so popular they wouldn't be putting them in parking lots and paying guys to get people to check them out.

DASKAA says

SunnyvaleCA says

DASKAA says

SunnyvaleCA says

DASKAA says

Substitute Tesla for Amazon, electric cars for online retail and legacy car companies for brick-and-mortar retail giants

Do you realize that Benz, Daimler, Porsche, and many others had hybrid-electric cars well before Musk was even born?

Um, no, they didn't. First hybrid was Prius and Mask was already adult and millionaire. First German hybrid didn't appear till 2010 iirc. And hybrid-electric is not the same as full-electric. It's a cludge at best. Besides, if these guys are ready to eat Elon's lunch, why BMW's electric offers suck so much and the rest don't have anything at all (well Daimler did have a fully-elect...

"First German hybrid didn't appear till 2010 iirc." I can understand you not remembering correctly. You weren't born yet.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lohner-Porsche
http://www.paicehybrid.com/tag/1906-mercedes-mixte/
The point of the links above above is that all-electric cars and hybrid-electric cars have been around for a century. (Actually, there were all-electric cars 150 years ago.) The battery technology sure has increased a lot, but that's not a Tesla invention either.

You're right that "hybrid-electric is not the same as full-electric." For starters, only one of those systems has been economically successful. Maybe battery tech will improve enough to make full electrics economically successful too. If that happens, then there's still the question of why Tesla's technology and brand name will outpace that of established automakers. Do you really think the established automakers are just sitting back and watching as Tesla blazes into a new market? Do you really think the engineers that pioneered the synergy drive and other systems can't seem to grasp the concepts needed for a simpler battery-only system?

I will agree with you that the BMW i3 is ugly as sin. Also, cheap electric cars are merely "compliance cars" and not desirable like a Tesla. But the ugly and the cheap are at least not losing a lot of money!

Ultimately: If there is an economically viable market, the established companies are going to jump into it. I think the established companies have a lot of other advantages that Tesla won't quickly replicate.

MrMagic says

Anyone know how well a Tesla does as a paperweight?

Poorly, I suppose. However, I know from first-hand observation that the Model X can make a great fire starter. I actually saw the aftermath of the Highway 101/85 crash last year from the vantage point of the 101 northbound on ramp from 85 to 101.

Ppl, I don't get it, this thread is about investments, not about an individual's favorite new car.

When the Boston Celtics were publicly traded, myself and others I knew, who were fans of Larry Bird since birth, didn't buy into them. You can even say that all of the greater Boston area was the Society of Red Auerbach, since pretty much, 90+% of the population were Celts fans.

And here's why ... they were poorly run & were not generating enough income until the company was taken private by new owners and then, between a new GM & President, they re-built and finally started returning to the playoffs, generating revenue (tickets & advertisements), and even got a championship in 2008. Likewise, Tesla needs to go through a similar transformation, for them to become an investable company.

SunnyvaleCA says

"First German hybrid didn't appear till 2010 iirc." I can understand you not remembering correctly. You weren't born yet.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lohner-Porsche
http://www.paicehybrid.com/tag/1906-mercedes-mixte/
The point of the links above above is that all-electric cars and hybrid-electric cars have been around for a century. (Actually, there were all-electric cars 150 years ago.) The battery technology sure has increased a lot, but that's not a Tesla invention either

Nice straw man. Nobody is saying battery in itself was "Tesla invention". And I'm perfectly aware of literally dozens of models of American electric cars sold at the turn on 20 century. It's all as irrelevant to today as Porsche "hybrid" of the same time.

As modern technology stands Tesla is the leader in the field of electric cars. It's simply a fact. It might change next year or next decade but it's a fact now.

Right that plug in hybrids are costly to make and redundant power plants. However, from the ROI pov it makes total sense for a) people that drives a lot (>20k mi/yr), b) has only one car (which by itself makes sense), c) no access to low cost kwh/solar/free charge, d) hates route planning and range anxiety. Hell, I have range anxiety still when I forget to plug in and is low on gas. A couple times. Shite happens: chargers glitches or broken, ICE trucks blocks access, lol, ...I can just drive on gas.
Don't forget, since plugin uses the ICE so little, for me it us <10%, odom at 150,000 mi means the gas engine is only 15,000 mi used. Barely broken in.

Rin is right, TSLA may not be a sound buy-and-hold investment.
Dont buy if you're not willing to lose it all.
My wife lost a bunch of $ because she panicked and sold a few years ago.
Since then, it more than recovered.
I bought an amount that I was willing to lose and t is doing great.
As far as technology, innovation, Tesla is way ahead of the pack.
Why is it that Audi, BMW, Jaguar, MB, GM...come up short in comparison?
Now Hyundai is actually giving Tesla some competition, in the $35K range.
Chinese EV makers, there are >100 of them, is another story.

Reluctance motor in Model3:

www.youtube.com/embed/6fkERTvTDGw

"My wife lost a bunch of $ because she panicked and sold a few years ago.
Since then, it more than recovered."

Man, that's definitely a bummer.

DASKAA says

SunnyvaleCA says

"First German hybrid didn't appear till 2010 iirc." I can understand you not remembering correctly. You weren't born yet.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lohner-Porsche
http://www.paicehybrid.com/tag/1906-mercedes-mixte/
The point of the links above above is that all-electric cars and hybrid-electric cars have been around for a century. (Actually, there were all-electric cars 150 years ago.) The battery technology sure has increased a lot, but that's not a Tesla invention either

Nice straw man. Nobody is saying battery in itself was "Tesla invention". And I'm perfectly aware of literally dozens of models of American electric cars sold at the turn on 20 century. It's all as irrelevant to today as Porsche "hybrid" of the same time.

As mod...

My point is that battery powered cars and hybrid cars have been around for a very very long time. It's not new technology and Tesla hasn't invented some sort of new "killer" technology. Tesla has mind share, for sure. But mind share in one specific area in the short term isn't a guarantee for future market domination (or even market viability).

What does Tesla have that Toyota, Honda, Daimler, BMW, or VW can't also produce? How does Tesla counter those established brand's dealer networks and manufacturing systems? Do people familiar with the "luxury" parts of a Tesla Model S really think they come close to measuring up to a Mercedes S class or even E class interior? I checked out the floor model Model S here in Silicon Valley, and the answer to my eye, nose, and touch it is a resounding no. As for manufacturing and electronics, good luck going against Toyota and Honda (and Hyundai).

SunnyvaleCA says

My point is that battery powered cars and hybrid cars have been around for a very very long time. It's not new technology and Tesla hasn't invented some sort of new "killer" technology.

Nobody claims that "Musk invented electricity" or any such noncense. Lay off already. All Tesla does is better execution of thing called "electric car". Yes, better than Toyota, Honda, Daimler, BMW and VW as it stands now. Just like with ICE cars some do it better than others. Just like it was with steam-powered cars, I'm sure. Tesla dominates the space since 2012 and the mighty Toyota is still catching up. Simple fact. It's been 7 years. Seven years of the same broken clock predictions how they are going to crash and burn TOMORROW and how GM and Toyota will eat their lunch. They still haven't. If this is so easy, why haven't they eaten the fucking Musk's lunch yet? Does BMW have better leather on the shift knob? It's entirely possible. But they can't do "electic car" for shit as it stands now. Their i3 is a sad fucking runabout, not a serius car, but I repeat myself.

Tesla basically proved Rocket Development is a black hole by building a reusable rocket at fraction of the time and cost of competing programs.

Cancel SLS. NASA and USAF will buy from private industry, the same way the buy Trucks for the Vehicle Fleet. Promise $1B on completion of BFR.

I'm sure this is just a minor blip.....

Tesla slashed Model S and X staff in recent layoffs.

Tesla is asking laid-off employees to cooperate in any claims against or by the company, and to adhere to a strict non-disparagement agreement, according to documents attained by CNBC.

Deep cuts occurred in its sales, delivery and Model S and Model X production teams, according to current and newly laid off workers. These people also said that Tesla has suspended night time production of its Model S sedans and Model X SUVs at its Fremont, California car plant.

Two dismissed employees said layoffs resulted in their losing stock options they were promised but had not vested yet. They scored the options as part of seemingly lucrative bonuses during their tenure at Tesla, but were disappointed the shares were worth hundreds instead of thousands of dollars due to the layoffs and vesting schedules.

Which groups were affected

According to an ex-employee who was involved in Tesla’s delivery operations, and a current employee who works for Tesla in Fremont, the layoffs appear to have impacted workers across every department and region from factory workers to recruiters and receptionists. But deep cuts apparently hit Tesla’s delivery, sales and Model S and X production teams.

Laid off workers from the company’s battery plant near Reno, Nevada, and car plant in Fremont, California, as well as one of its delivery centers, say they were walked out by security or by their managers on Friday, some after working a full shift.

Separation agreement details

Among other things, Tesla asked laid off employees via separation agreements to:

Promise not to “disparage Tesla” including the company’s officers, directors, employees, shareholders, agents, affiliates, subsidiaries, and products in any way that’s “Likely to be harmful to them or their business, business reputation or personal reputation.”

Refrain from sharing details about their separation agreement with the public, or with other current or former Tesla employees and contractors.

Cooperate with Tesla in connection to claims against or by the company-- this means laid off employees would share names or correspondence with Tesla if called on, and appear in court or be deposed without the company issuing a subpoena.

Resolve disputes around the separation agreement through arbitration, instead of in a class action suit for example.

Friday’s move marked the second time in seven months that Tesla dismissed thousands of its full-time employees, outside of regular performance review-related terminations.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/23/tesla-layoffs-details-reduced-hours-model-x-model-x-production.html

Tesla stock tanks a day after announcement on store closures, layoffs and first-quarter loss.

Tesla shares slide 8 percent Friday morning.

On Thursday, CEO Elon Musk said he did not expect Tesla to be profitable in the first quarter.

Tesla shares fell 8 percent Friday, a day after the electric car maker said it will be shuttering some stores and cutting jobs to reduce costs.

CEO Elon Musk also said Tesla won’t turn a profit during the first quarter as it works to deliver its mid-size Model 3 sedan at a more affordable price tag of $35,000.

The store closures are part of a push to slash costs as much as possible to ensure the lowest-priced version of the car makes money.

“There’s no way around it,” Musk said on the call.

Musk reversed Wall Street guidance Thursday in predicting a loss for the first quarter, one month after saying he was optimistic the company would be profitable.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/01/tesla-shares-slide-after-announcing-store-closures-layoffs-and-a-loss.html


How soon until he tries to sell them on Amazon?

$294.79/sh - 25.09 (-7.84%)

Tesla is toast; someone may buy it after it goes bankrupt.

In addition to being broke, indebted, etc. Musk is a conman and he is not helping the brand.

According to a recent report by Germany’s Manager-Magazin via Electrek, Porsche and Audi have taken a step back, and may be planning for a new direction after reverse-engineering the Tesla Model 3.

....

The report goes on to say that the companies are concerned their cars are going to be too expensive. While Porsche seems okay with losing money initially, Audi doesn’t want to deal with a loss. The most substantial cost prohibitor is the vehicle’s battery pack, which Tesla is fortunate to build in partnership with Panasonic at its Nevada Gigafactory — the largest battery factory on the planet at this point and growing daily.

Manager-Magazin notes that Audi and Porsche could potentially hold up/push back future production in order to revamp models to better compete with the Tesla Model 3. As the story goes on, Audi’s report even refers to the current Audi e-tron program as a failure (via Electrek):

"The e-tron as the first electric Audi is not only late. It does not reach some target values and has become far too expensive with more than two billion euros in development costs. The approximately 600,000 cars sold for the break-even are now regarded as an illusion."

Not unlike Tesla vehicles (wow it’s hard to build and launch these cars?), the Audi e-tron has continued to be way behind its timelines. We’ve seen much the same situation with the Jaguar I-Pace.



https://insideevs.com/porsche-audi-tesla-model-3-teardown/

jazz_music says

Do you know electric cars have pretty much been perfected since 1938 but the oil companies and their loosely knit coalitions have blocked electric cars from ever becoming mainstream no matter how good they might be, they’re not profitable enough for enough people.

This is simply untrue.

TSLA is in an epic long/short struggle for 18 months.
I had to wait for Mr. Market's tell on the $290B bond payment.
Then Elon Tusk complicated things with the $35K M3.
Online buying is a good long term move - dealerships add no value to EVs, they're $1000/car drag to ICEs.
Must let the dust settle. NTS - short term indicators must turn bullish b4 buying.
More fun than Las Vegas.

kt1652 says

Online buying is a good long term move - dealerships add no value to EVs, they're $1000/car drag to ICEs.

Yep, this reminds me of NFLX move away from DVD into streaming-only model and all the howling that ensued. Proved to be right move long-term.

Hugolas_Madurez says

Yep, this reminds me of NFLX move away from DVD into streaming-only model and all the howling that ensued. Proved to be right move long-term.

So, people will order Tesla's online just like they order streaming movies from Netflix?

Really?

MrMagic says

Hugolas_Madurez says

Yep, this reminds me of NFLX move away from DVD into streaming-only model and all the howling that ensued. Proved to be right move long-term.

So, people will order Tesla's online just like they order streaming movies from Netflix?

Really?

They already do.

I would. Here how I'd do it.
Spend more time researching the pros and cons of buying a car than buying a refrigerator.
Dont waste time with idiot dealership sales loser that know less bout car than me.
Arrange all financials with best lenders b4 hand. Do not trust any con man in the dealership office.
Do not waste 2-3 hours of time "negotiating" for a fuck-in-butt at dealership.
Order online, get car delivered. Tesla said if you dont like it, we give you refund.
Test drive for a day, smile.
If I didnt buy a new PHEV 20 month ago, Id def be M3 shopping. Maybe Model Y for my alien wife.

"Can't Spell Felon Without Elon".

All Ponzi schemes follow a basic rule; as long as more money is coming in than out, the scheme can continue to inflate. When money stops flowing in, the scheme collapses—often quite rapidly. I believe that Tesla (TSLAQ – USA) is near the final stages of this arc. Excluding stock option exercises, cash is no longer inbound; meanwhile Tesla can no longer use financial shenanigans (more this weekend) to hide the rapidly accelerating losses and pent-up cash out-flow. While the timing is still a bit unsure, I’m at the point where I’ve pushed my chips across the table and maxed out the position. It finally is gonna blow!!

In the past week, we have learned that;

-yet another Tesla has lost a wheel due to “Whompy Wheel” (google it).

-after the car crashed, the driver was burned alive due to faulty door handles that wouldn’t open once power was down (friends really shouldn’t let friends drive these deathmobiles)

-the SEC is holding Elon Musk in contempt for blatant disregard of the prior settlement agreement. I suspect Musk is ultimately pushed out of the company as a result.

-Tesla is closing most stores and service centers to save money, yet severance and lease termination will likely be larger than Tesla’s current liquidity balance. Such a move should be done in bankruptcy and in all my years, I have not seen a bankruptcy/non-bankruptcy announcement such as this (without any DIP even secured!!)

-Tesla is dramatically reducing vehicle prices to push faulty legacy inventory on consumers in a last ditch cash grab. Tesla’s cash needs are so extreme that they’re doing this despite trying to simultaneously sell a higher priced version into Europe where many buyers will simply return the car (under EU law) and accept a cheaper version, which will likely lead to negative margins on most vehicles sold this year

-Tesla’s GC has looked at some piece of information and left the company, despite coming from a firm that specializes in white collar criminal defense.

That all happened this week!!!


Ponzi Schemes are like sharks, as soon as they stop swimming forward, they drown. This is because well run Ponzi Schemes use accruals to hide costs in the present that only pop up in the future. If your revenue numerator is growing, your costs on the denominator side will stay constant or decline as a percentage of revenue as they’ve been deferred—leading to margin growth. When revenue slows or goes in reverse, the fraud collapses.

Going back to the shark analogy, when revenue inflects negatively, these accruals will catch up with Tesla quite rapidly. Watch monthly vehicle sales. January was awful. February was worse. They just fired all the sales people—how can March be any better? Tesla is imploding. It’s over and it will soon become obvious to everyone.

The Gigafraud is about to detonate!!!

http://adventuresincapitalism.com/2019/03/03/cookin-books-tesla-style/?utm_source=AIC&utm_campaign=2ea85deedb-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_03_03_04_42&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_cb61762784-2ea85deedb-31424545

Tesla closes stores in the shopping malls? Oh, the horror! Other manufacturers don't close any of their stores... Wait a sec, they never opened any stores in the shopping malls in the first place.

Patrick says

revenue just keeps going up. Hard to figure out what a fair price is

Reminds me of the ponderings back in the day about ENE and GLBC

Elon's new motto, "Fuck over existing customers to save his Ass".

Angry Tesla Owners Protest The Company's Aggressive Price Cuts.

Tesla's new price cuts have been so extreme and so unexpected, that some buyers who purchased vehicles recently and have been forced to watch them depreciate significantly (sometimes overnight) have launched impromptu protests in Taiwan and China according to electrek.

One of the sub-plots to Tesla announcing that it would finally be launching its $35,000 Model 3 last week was the announcement that it was also making price and option changes to its Model S and Model X lineup. These changes included a new Model S battery pack and some enormous price drops, including ones up to $12,000 in the United States.

Overseas, however, price reductions on some of these models have been even more significant. For instance, the higher end versions of the Model S and the Model X saw overnight price reductions of over $30,000. Also, in Taiwan, the price of a Model S P100D was cut nearly in half by Tesla's latest price changes, resulting in about $100,000 in savings.

Global Times reported on one Tesla owner, who stated: "I received Tesla’s Model X on February 25, and I only drove this car for five days before Tesla announced a price reduction of 174,300 yuan ($25,989.87). I’m probably the most unlucky new buyer…

While the remaining members of the Musk "cult" continue to defend the company under the guise that all price reductions will be good for Tesla over the course of the long-haul, consumers certainly appear to be feeling rejected by Tesla's "fly by the seat of its pants" management style. We wonder how long Musk and his gang can keep this line of thinking up before the inevitable protests in the United States start.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-03-04/angry-tesla-owners-protest-companys-aggressive-price-cuts

I'm also highly skeptical of Tesla. Too many red flags and increasing competition from better EVs. Gutsy bet, @Patrick.

MrMagic says

Angry Tesla Owners Protest The Company's Aggressive Price Cuts.

Or put another way - Tesla delivers on promise of offering a $35K base level Model 3!

That is cheaper than my 2018 Chevy Bolt I just got in December and even the lowest trim Model 3 is way better than the Bolt. Now I wish I waited!

Meanwhile, Tesla has a pretty big head start and I think they will be able to maintain brand loyalty when they start cranking out the Model Y's, Roadsters, and bringing prices down.

socal2 says

That is cheaper than my 2018 Chevy Bolt I just got in December and even the lowest trim Model 3 is way better than the Bolt. Now I wish I waited!

Go protest @ their HQ! Bastards! How dare they lower prices!!!

socal2 says

Or put another way - Tesla delivers on promise of offering a $35K base level Model 3!

That is cheaper than my 2018 Chevy Bolt I just got in December and even the lowest trim Model 3 is way better than the Bolt. Now I wish I waited!

So, you really think you want one of these stripped down, cut every corner, Model 3's, after reading all the Hail Mary, desperate crap Musk is pulling?

Hope your life insurance is paid and current.

I'm really betting on Tesla's battery technology, which is more than half their revenue if I understand right.

Batteries are the limiting factor for solar power at the moment. With really good batteries, we might be able to replace most fossil fuels with solar.

Patrick says

I'm really betting on Tesla's battery technology, which is more than half their revenue if I understand right.

Batteries are the limiting factor for solar power at the moment. With really good batteries, we might be able to replace most fossil fuels with solar.

Yep - batteries are everything. It will solve alot of the world's problems. I'm interested in seeing what Tesla does with the Maxwell Technologies tech they just acquired.

Sept 1, 2014: Tesla was selling for $280 a share

Today Tesla is selling for around $285 a share

4 years and 5 months of no movement in the stock

Guru Focus shows the median 3 year revenue growth of about 92% for Guru Focs. It is currently 58.6%. So its revenue growth rate is decreasing yet its liabilities and debt are increasing now about $ 23 billion. And its profitability rating is only 6 out of 10; it should be at least 8 out of 10 given its over 10 years of age and has acquired a lot of debt. That is why it has a financial strength rating of only 4 out of 10. It has to hope that it can beat out the competition, just like debt-ridden Netflix hopes to beat out Hulu/Disney, and Amazon Prime.

I don't get it, I get a lot of flack for fucking hoes but guess what? I'm actually having sex w/o an associated relationship. That's freedom from both, palimony and faux rape charges, esp for a litigious society like the USA. And yes, I don't need to waste time, mopping around in a mall, waiting for some GF to finish her shopping. My cock is happy.

This Tesla EV fandom thing is what? ... being in a high horsepower "EV muscle" vehicle, which performs the same day to day transportation function as a Toyota Corolla and that's suppose to be some sort of world game changer?

If I wanted, I could rent a Porsche or a Maserati, any weekend I want, for a joyride. And really, a joyride is all that it is. Afterwards, you're back to your daily routine.

http://patrick.net/post/1318339/2018-08-20-i-have-a-friend-who-drives-a-tesla-i-say-so-what

Compare Tesla (financial strength score of 4 out of 10 and profitablility of 6 out of 10) to Amazon

Rin says

This Tesla EV fandom thing is what?

I think Tesla appeals to those who are environmentally conscious, and do not want a hybrid like a Toyota Prius and are willing and able to lay down at least $35,000 for an all-electric car. I don't see gas going up to $4 a gallon with the way fracking is occurring in the USA.

There are enough consumers to support Tesla, but can Tesla improve its financial strength enough ? Its Altman Z score is very bad, and points to a large chance for Tesla's bankruptcy (sans some major breakthrough with battery technology).

AD says

Rin says

This Tesla EV fandom thing is what?

I think Tesla appeals to those who are environmentally conscious, and do not want a hybrid like a Toyota Prius and are willing and able to lay down at least $35,000 for an all-electric car. I don't see gas going up to $4 a gallon with the way fracking is occurring in the USA.

There are enough consumers to support Tesla, but can Tesla improve its financial strength enough ? Its Altman Z score is very bad, and points to a large chance for Tesla's bankruptcy (sans some major breakthrough with battery technology).

Tesla isn't the "environmental hero." At this point, the Prius is a competitive car on its own merits: very low involvement & drama, very low cost of ownership, low driving & ownership effort; (now) profitable without subsidies. The Prius gives meaningful MPG improvements over conventional cars. For the battery expenditure of a Tesla, we can put 5 or more Priii (Priora ... Greek?) on the road. Therefore, at the current state of batteries, the Prius is the environmental hero.

I wonder what would happen if Toyota created a new car with 150 HP electric power, rear wheel drive, and 225mm summer tires. Sure, the result might "only" get 40 MPG, but you'd have a car that would hit 60 MPH in 5 seconds and handle a lot better. You'd still only need a 50 to 100 HP ICE, as that's all you need when cruising at 80 MPH on the highway.