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Higher inventory in expensive neighborhoods


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2009 Jul 24, 8:03am   2,273 views  6 comments

by P2D2   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

While discussing in another thread I noticed some interesting thing.

While inventory decreased in non-expensive areas (where there are substantial price drop already) in last one year, it increased (or did not drop) in expensive areas. First I looked at Fremont, CA

94536: Current (124), last year (270)
94538: current (93), last year (200)
94539 (more expensive area): Current (160), last year (170)
94555: current (45), last year (113)

Just to verify, I looked at another city - Sunnyvale, CA
94085: current (36), last year (93)
94086: current (68), last year (105)
94087 (more expensive area): current (115), last year (70)
94089: current (24), last year (57)

And it very evident in price trend. Nowadays multiple "price reduced" in expensive zipcodes.

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1   P2D2   2009 Jul 24, 8:26am  

Some additional info about number of sale:
94539: current sale (108), last year (153)
94087: current sale (118), last year (143)

2   justme   2009 Jul 24, 8:36am  

Good data to see. I'm familiar with all of the above zip codes, and I have also used them to benchmark the overall state of the markets.

One observation that I have made is that the local Realtwhores have become much more aggressive about pruning/removing old listings that have expired or otherwise have not sold withing 3-6 months. In my estimation, this phenomenon accounts for nearly the entire drop in the number of listings.

A better way to see what is really going on is to see how many new houses are coming on the market each week, while also noting (as you did) that sales volume is down. That tells the story right there.

Now, in the more expensive areas the agents have not yet gotten aggressive about the pruning, partly because they are still dreaming that offers will eventually come in.

I'm certainly willing to listen to other theories, but this is what I have seen,

3   ch_tah2   2009 Jul 24, 8:38am  

Is that a typo for 94539? Last time I counted on my fingers, I reached 160 before I got to 170. I'm just kidding, I know what your point is.

4   P2D2   2009 Jul 24, 8:52am  

camping says

Is that a typo for 94539? Last time I counted on my fingers, I reached 160 before I got to 170. I’m just kidding, I know what your point is.

That covered too with "did not drop". Difference of 10 nothing but a noise in 160/170 range.

5   P2D2   2009 Jul 24, 9:01am  

justme says

A better way to see what is really going on is to see how many new houses are coming on the market each week, while also noting (as you did) that sales volume is down. That tells the story right there.

Normally I follow free stats from Altos Research.
Sunnyvale: the last chart is for inventory. 7-day inventory dropped in last one month, but 30-day inventory is up. And as inventory dropped in inexpensive zipcodes, it is obvious that rate of 30-day inventory going up due to inventory increase in 94087.

6   P2D2   2009 Jul 24, 9:22am  

zetabeos1 says

Fremont and Sunnyvale are hardly expensive…
suggest you try Saratoga Los Gatos and Woodside

I agree. The reason I quoted those two cities because they have mixed of zipcodes - inexpensive zipcodes and comparatively expensive zipcodes. When people quote data for whole city, often those kind of info get lost.

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