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Lex on US Housing Market


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2006 May 24, 2:59am   15,813 views  186 comments

by Randy H   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Homebuilders
Readers of the FT will be familiar with the (newly expanded) Lex Column. Today's featured an interesting little bit on US housebuilders, and its relation to the US housing market.

Feeling sorry for the builders does not come naturally to most homeowners. But as US households worry about the value of their dwellings, they might spare a thought for those even less fortunate. Since July last year, shares in US homebuilders have lost over a third of their value.

Things have been most painful at the top end of the market. Shares in Toll Brothers, the luxury homebuilder, have more than halved. Over the past few months, the question for most investors has changed from whether there will be a slowdown, to how bad things could possibly get.

The column goes on to mention:

  • Signs of significant inventory overhang in many regions
  • Speculative buyers trying to unload holdings
  • Owners hoping to upgrade increasingly finding they cannot sell their old homes for the prices they need/expect.
  • Nonetheless, builders have not significantly slowed new building efforts

Toll is considered a bellwether indicator. Why? Because it markets upscale homes to a sophisticated clientele. Sentiment has grown so negative on Toll that their recent guidance further cutting earnings forecasts actually triggered a relief rally. The market capitalization of Toll is less than the value of all its land and inventory.

Or is it? The problem is that the only potential buyers for construction projects in-progress are other builders, who are similarly depressed for the same reasons. This kind of "vicious circle" is hard to break and usually causes an overshooting of reasonable valuation.

But before you jump in to buy undervalued REITs or homebuilder stocks, keep in mind that this may just be the beginning. The entire sector is trading at about 5.5 times ever shrinking earnings estimates. But (and this is a big but), direct costs are skyrocketing, general inflation is increasing, rates are rising, and industry consolidation is probably nowhere near done. Lex's conclusion: it will be increasingly difficult for these builders to defend returns as capital costs soar. Result, more downside probably left.

Why on earth do we even care? We're sure to hear from at least one Troll that "New Home Starts" don't matter, or that homebuilders aren't relevant, or that "sales of existing homes" is the only game in town. My answer: perhaps, this time, everything is different and we've entered a great new economic paradigm where leading indicators no longer lead. Or, the correction is well underway.

--Randy H

#housing

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43   edvard   2006 May 24, 6:59am  

You aught to see the house my brother owns. It's this teeny 2 bedroom deal built after the war. The kitchen houses the fridge, oven, microwave, washer, dryer, and everything else that's of that nature. The washer buts right up next to the oven. The bathroom has dining room fixtures screwed to the walls. The living room has this huge window that all the world can see right through.
but... he paid 46k for the whole thing, and he's 5 years younger than me!

44   Joe Schmoe   2006 May 24, 7:00am  

WWII,

It's actually a ship's wheel. You know, for the "nautical" theme. The glass lightbulb enclsoures look like fog lamps. You'd love it.

They also have these giant wooden salad spoons affixed to the dining room wall. They like Aztec sculptures. Picture a totem pole made out of Aztec dieties with a spoon or fork on one end. Those things are family heirlooms that will never be sold. I've seen a lot of kitsch in my time, being from the blue collar Midwest and all, but nothing tops those salad spoons.

45   astrid   2006 May 24, 7:01am  

Randy,

Nothing wrong with lots of bathrooms.

Numerous members of my family (who've moved out of the old abode and into 2+ bathroom apartments) have dramatically changed their behavior. Reading and talking on the phone has become the norm, and they're showering daily now as opposed to bimonthly.

Though, the lack of first floor bathrooms is another one of my complaints about McMansions. Most of the smaller ones have only a half bathroom for the entire first floor, which means that on the rare occasion when the owners might entertain some people on the first floor public rooms, the guests have to trek to the private second floor bathrooms just to relieve themselves.

46   Randy H   2006 May 24, 7:05am  

Joe Schmoe,

I was going to add a counter criticism that you covered. Tract homes quite often are more wasteful per land usage than McMansions. Most McMansions are not replacements within existing communities, but new developements. New developments inevitably have smaller lot sizes, and more inhabitable square footage on that land. There are lots of 2BR homes on tracts that have massive back yards and detached garages. A McMansion on 70% of the lot space can support 5BRs.

This is problem with comparative qualifying statements like too wasteful.

True also about the evolution of Brownstones and Graystones. In Chicago, pretty much all the Northside B/Gstones were SFHs when built. Over the years they converted to 3/4 family dwellings. When people in Lincoln Park started to buy those out and restore them as SFHs there was a holy hissy fit from the urban environmentalists about wasteful consumption, etc. I always found it funny that these same people showed up to oppose "Six-Pack" developments, which were condos of 6 units laid lengthwise across 2 city lots, usually replacing dilapidated row homes in gentrifying neighborhoods. Urban NIMBYism: call whatever you don't fancy "wasteful".

47   astrid   2006 May 24, 7:05am  

goober,

Ugh, sorry. At 18 I was going through my existentialist crises and doing all I can to avoid the light and other people :) Economics and critiques of American consumerism would have been the farthest thing on my mind.

48   Peter P   2006 May 24, 7:07am  

The house where I spent the first 8 years of my life had one toilet for 2 kids and 7 adults. I’ve lived most of the next 10 years with 2 adults and one bathroom. We managed, somehow.

Wow. I can use two toilets myself.

Most of the smaller ones have only a half bathroom for the entire first floor, which means that on the rare occasion when the owners might entertain some people on the first floor public rooms, the guests have to trek to the private second floor bathrooms just to relieve themselves.

A half bath ought to be enough for floors without bedrooms.

They should also build homes with a dedicated cat litter room. It needs a cat door and a powerful, energy-saving, long-running exhaust fan.

49   Randy H   2006 May 24, 7:08am  

The giant salad spoons in my grandparent's house had distorted 'pa and 'ma faces painted on them. Always gave me nightmares, along with all those damned little figurenes hiding in every single damned nook & cranny.

50   Randy H   2006 May 24, 7:10am  

Goob,

Tread lightly on the personal provocations. Thanks.

51   edvard   2006 May 24, 7:12am  

Joe,
Our house had yellow appliances. Actually, I guess they were "autumn gold".To continue the theme, we had metallic gold carpet, yellow painted walls, and get this- the exterior was chocolate brown. My grandmother had those same huge wooden spoons in the kitchen. she later gave them to me, which I used as "decoration" inside my clubhouse. She also had these freaky looking pictures hanging up in the hallway. They were velvet paintings of precious moments looking children walking to go fishing. There were also lots of glass chickens in the kitchen. They were sort of abstract and painted strange colors- like green and orange. One of my friend's uncle had this plastic outhouse that sat on their toilet. If you opened the door to it, a little plastic clown would piss all over you. Hilarious.
It's funny to think about that stuff because out here, the stuff sells for a MINT. The ugly fake hide lamps shaped like flying saucers, figurines, and fake vinyl furniture all sell for oodles. Back home, people give it away. I've thought there aught to be an "import" business to ship it out here for all the yuppies to slobber over and buy. I'll be stinkin' rich!

52   astrid   2006 May 24, 7:15am  

Randy,

I hope I've established to your satisfaction that I'm not anti McMansions and McMansion-dwellers (cough in Mill Valley cough), I just think they're a very imperfect solution.

McMansions do use less land than older houses. But given that they give their owners basically no usable lot, the builders would do better just to build large 2 garage townhouses and insert good sound insulation between the houses.

BTW, I do agree with you that NIMBY zoning codes and zoning boards bear much of the blame for many of these unhappy solutions to a real need for more and better housing.

53   Randy H   2006 May 24, 7:15am  

ww2,

I can set you up with a nearly inexhaustible supplier of those goods if you're serious. All you need are a couple of retired garage-sale hounds in the Ohio/Indiana borderlands.

54   astrid   2006 May 24, 7:18am  

Randy,

It's fine, goober likes to poke fun at how young I am. But I'm probably just 2 or 3 years younger than Peter P and WWII. Hell, I'm even older than Conor.

WWII,

And you say IKEA was bad taste! ;)

55   Randy H   2006 May 24, 7:21am  

For the record, I do rent a McMansion in Mill Valley. I emphasize rent.

I've never lived in one of these before. I can sum up the positives:

* Plenty of bathrooms.

I can sum up the negatives:

* Tacky and cheap.

Hey, the rent is way below my theoretical PITI - tax deduction + alternate investment return - inflation - expected appreciation.

(All our pipes just started humming and whistling a couple of weeks ago too; oh the joys of renting from a clueless Specuvestor).

56   astrid   2006 May 24, 7:23am  

goober,

BTW, my main problem with kids is non of those things. I just can't justify their costs v. their potential utility. If my boyfriend ever hit it big in hedge fund management, I'll be happy to conside 2, 3, or even 4 kids.

57   Randy H   2006 May 24, 7:23am  

OFGS, you're making me feel ancient. And I'm not even a Boomer, just on the leading edge of X.

58   edvard   2006 May 24, 7:25am  

Randy,
While I don't rent a Mcmansion, the house I rent is pretty old( 1916) but was more recently renovated. The only bad thing about is the shower, which is a sheet plastic liner that I've had to caulk several times already. If I ever get my own place, this will be the only place I'll spend the money. Tile all the way- either that or vintage stuff. The plastic sheeting has got to go.

59   astrid   2006 May 24, 7:27am  

(disclaimer: his IB higher level math 7 notwithstanding, my boyfriend profess absolutely no interest in money management, corporate law, management consulting, or anything else that would result in big money -- it's pretty much a hopeless situation)

60   astrid   2006 May 24, 7:32am  

Randy,

I know, that's why I said dweller;) Sorry. If I was in your situation, I'd do exactly the same thing.

61   astrid   2006 May 24, 7:34am  

PS - Randy, that's not my job anymore. That's Conor's job.

62   Randy H   2006 May 24, 7:38am  

If I was in your situation, I’d do exactly the same thing.

I'm not sure I would. But I'm existential about such things.

63   HeadSet   2006 May 24, 7:45am  

I don't have a problem with McMansions, it is just a style of home like Victorian or Colonial. Many 1900 era Victorians around here (VA) are McMansion sized, 3,000 sqft or more. They seem to be quality built, but that may be from original construction or from renovation.

If someone has saved his money and wants the benefits of lots of space, I see no problem. I just have a distaste for a McMansion Heights whole neighborhood of fiscal fools pushing a facade of wealth, inhabited by the couple so stretched out financially that wife yells at husband for wasting money on a candy bar. No problem with a new Expedition though.

64   StuckInBA   2006 May 24, 8:04am  

Oh. so this is "McMansions are not bad" thread. Just a few threads ago they were bad.

I like McMansions. I do not like the 40 year old floor plans in Cupertino at all. In every such house the first thing you notice after entry is kitchen ! There is nothing pretty, classy etc about these plans.

I need big kitchen, big bathroom and a big room for a big TV. Rest is too subtle for me.

65   HeadSet   2006 May 24, 8:05am  

Astrid says:

The house where I spent the first 8 years of my life had one toilet for 2 kids and 7 adults. I’ve lived most of the next 10 years with 2 adults and one bathroom. We managed, somehow

In the '60s when we were at my grandparents house in central VA, we had to take a bath in a steel tub with well water heated in a kettle on a cast iron stove. The toilet was an outhouse 50 yards from the house. However, nothing beats the fresh eggs we gathered from the henhouse, or the fresh veggies from the garden (no pesticides). Also, nothing beats the taste of water from that well. We also used kerosene lamps since they did not get electricity until the 70s. None of us live like that today, of course, but the place was great fun during extended family gatherings.

66   astrid   2006 May 24, 8:08am  

SP,

I don't completely agree with you. I know people who can afford the "real thing" but chose not to. Sometimes, it's just not efficient to spend $100K on a deck, even if you're extremely wealthy. If a knock off Gucci bag will satisfy the social pressures without spending the money on a real Gucci bag.

67   HeadSet   2006 May 24, 8:12am  

SP,

Do you still smell like elephant piss?

Cheers!

68   astrid   2006 May 24, 8:13am  

Headset,

My first home was not a matter of eccentric grandparents. The house I lived in didn't get indoor plumbing until the late 1970s. Even now, there are legal residents (as opposed to slum dwellers) in Shanghai who don't have indoor plumbing and are forced to use waste buckets and public latrines.

I guess I have a tendancy to mildly mock Peter P's (and maybe my own) sybaritic tastes and expectations.

69   astrid   2006 May 24, 8:14am  

SP,

Good grief, did you memorize all the Monty Python episodes?

70   HeadSet   2006 May 24, 8:14am  

SQT says,

I live in what some here would refer to as a stucco $hitbox, but frankly I like it. It’s almost 2000 sqft with an excellent floorplan.

Who would call that a $hitbox? That sounds like a practical, desireable home. Especially if it is paid for or has a low financial drain.

71   edvard   2006 May 24, 8:17am  

There's something to be said for imitation and the " real thing" For example, one of my hubcaps came off my toyota truck. It is 11 years old, and the dealership wanted $75 PER HUBCAP! So.. I went to Kragen and bought a box of 4 fake plastic chrome hubcaps for $30. Ghetto. Nothing else describes the way my truck looks now. Anyone can tell that those "rims" on my truck are cheapo plastic. It doesn't feel or look cool at all. That's the same way I feel about fake wood and cheapy interiors on some of these massive houses.

72   HeadSet   2006 May 24, 8:18am  

Astrid,

I hope you don't think I was implying you had eccentric grandparents. I assumed your grandparents lived how they lived for the same reasons mine did - economics.

73   astrid   2006 May 24, 8:21am  

SQT,

As long as a home provides value to its owner and/or resident, it's fine. There are huge multi-million dollar homes in Jackson Hole that gets use 2 weeks a year, but if money is no object and the primary value is to boast of a Jackson Hole home, then more power to them.

What I object to is that general uselessness of houses built btwn 2000 and now. They sell an imagine of high quality and high class but are actually poorly designed and shoddily built. Their owner will quickly discover just how quickly those two facts will conspire to deflate the value of their house.

74   astrid   2006 May 24, 8:24am  

Headset,

At least you got fresh vegetables and eggs. We had food rationing for the entire time I was in Shanghai. ;)

(to SP, ugh, sorry. Last time, I promise.)

75   HARM   2006 May 24, 8:24am  

I'm fairly agnostic on "McMansions" as a contemporary style/class of tract homes, however one chooses to define them. However, depending upon the specific builder/location, there is some valid criticism out there in terms of poor construction quality, needless use of sub-par materials and inefficient use of space, poor design issues, etc. That said, the main issue to me isn't the style of housing being built, it's the insane valuations and financing used in this part of the country.

There are some viable alternatives out there for non-rich hard-core D-I-Y types who want a truly custom-built house, without having to pay $millions to have a world-famous architect build the thing for you: straw-bale, adobe, rammed earth/cobb, etc. The possibilities are limitless, assuming you have the necessary skills, time and willpower to see it through (which few people have).

76   Peter P   2006 May 24, 8:26am  

I like McMansions. I do not like the 40 year old floor plans in Cupertino at all. In every such house the first thing you notice after entry is kitchen ! There is nothing pretty, classy etc about these plans.

I need big kitchen, big bathroom and a big room for a big TV. Rest is too subtle for me.

Same here. I like a big master bathroom with tub, separate shower, and separate toilet stall. If I cannot spin around freely with my arms fully extended, the bathroom is too small.

77   astrid   2006 May 24, 8:30am  

SP,

Very few people in this world are truly indifferent to cost and most of the world does hold some value for perception of prestige. Thus, I do not discount such behavior outright but measure for durability of such perception under duress.

If we go solely by actual usefulness of goods, most luxury goods makers would go bankrupt very quickly.

78   astrid   2006 May 24, 8:32am  

SQT,

It just sounds like you found a home you're happy with, and that's really more important than anything else.

79   astrid   2006 May 24, 8:34am  

Peter P,

One of these days I will create a thread called "build the perfect house for Peter P." You just wait!

80   Peter P   2006 May 24, 8:34am  

If we go solely by actual usefulness of goods, most luxury goods makers would go bankrupt very quickly.

True. I enjoy luxury food very much. But it gets turned into human waste just as quickly as normal food. :(

Perhaps I should condition myself into hating good food.

81   Peter P   2006 May 24, 8:37am  

Maybe there is something to Feng Shui.

Absolutely.

82   astrid   2006 May 24, 8:38am  

Peter P,

I think my analogy would be for you to trick your mind into believing that PB&J sandwich tastes like toro and $2/lb hamburger tastes like Kobe beef.

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