patrick.net

Paul Krugman was on CNN advocating he Swedish equity-based rescue model. Go Krugman!

EBGuy pointed out what I think is the most underreported story of the day: The huge expansion of the Fed balance sheet.

Suze Orman is running arund on CNN like a headless chicken, trying to scare up support for the rescue bill. God, that b*tch is annoying.

I am so fucking sorry my horseshoe hair wearing friends.

tinyurl.com/3f5wzw

man, just when you thought it couldn't get worse. But hey, there are still those fond memories of woodstock.

oh, go fuck yourselves boomers.

There's nothing wrong with a Wall Street bailout as long as Wall Street pays for most of it, esp since they're going to reap the most benefits. To SNMR: It's ridiculous to argue that we need this particular bailout simply because some economists and barrons say we need some type of bailout. And why does the money have to go to Wall Street? $700 billion mailed directly to taxpayers would have a much greater impact on Main Street than this ridiculously one-sided bill. Thank goodness congress voted against it. Unfortunately my CA rep McNerney chose to ignore his voters. So, I just registered to make sure there's one more vote against him on election day.

I had another nightmare. In this nightmare, the current crisis lasted for more than two years and all the world's major currencies collapsed. The Central Banks of every nation gathered to announce our economic salvation: one world electronic currency. The evolution from barter, to metal coins, to paper reserve notes, to paper draft checks, to electronic money was complete. The leaders rejoiced and exclaimed that one universal currency required more than a central bank - it required one world government. Then I awoke in a cold sweat, grateful to be alive. In Stockton - where my mundane concerns are drive-by shootings, home invasion robberies, or being dragged from my car and beaten to death.

are you suggesting that Fed has already started printing since it has less than $300B on its balance sheet?
I am suggesting that they will use the same means they used last week (injection from the Treasury) to fund the new TAF expansion (as they wouldn't have any Treasuries left for OMO if the rest were sold off). This is where they got it from last week (and, all things being equal, the same till that would be funding the Paulson Plan, right). From last week's H.4.1:
On September 17, the Treasury Department announced the Supplementary Financing Program. Under this program, the Treasury
issues marketable debt and deposits the proceeds in an account at the Federal Reserve that is segregated from the Treasury General Account. Or as the bake sale link (treasry(dot)gov) from my previous post says (just to be really clear): The program will consist of a series of Treasury bills, apart from Treasury's current borrowing program, which will provide cash for use in the Federal Reserve initiatives.

EBGuy,

When will they be done with these nonsense stats that cost TOO much to collect? End it now so we can all rest in our non information (save the FED $$$).

Oh wait they make those $$$ so how much does it really cost?? Nada, nothing, zilch.

Anna Eshoo (D, Palo Alto) voted for the bailout. I just sent her an e-mail expressing my disappointment. They are just going to reshuffle the pages and put this to another vote really soon. Bush is going to make a plea tomorrow at 5:45am. I want a return of "sane lending practices", not a bailout.

Anna Eshoo (D, Palo Alto) voted for the bailout. I just sent her an e-mail expressing my disappointment. They are just going to reshuffle the pages and put this to another vote really soon. Bush is going to make a plea tomorrow at 5:45am. I want a return of "sane lending practices", not a bailout.

I am SO done with this place!

Yes, you are correct, our democracy will last no more than 48 hours. Enjoy it while you can!

The leaders rejoiced and exclaimed that one universal currency required more than a central bank - it required one world government.

World government? Dream on. :)

Don't worry. We will have WW3 before that happens.

On a lighter note-

Whatever happened to the good ole days?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gvaY4AMd-js

Oh it was Dream on or Dream weaver?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5WrD-fAzx4

EBGuy,

sure, they are tapping into the Treasury. But who, WHO are buying these T-bills? As far as the July report can tell, foreigners are fleeing T-bills. The retail Americans don't have that much patriotic dollars left.

I say the 770 pt crash is rather staged.

Look at Nikkei and Hong Kong, the drop is significantly smaller.

I agree with Krugman. I think the nationalization of the banks is exactly the way to go. None of this equity warrant nonsense. Let it fail. Take it over. Make 'em all federal employees until they are spun out.

One of the articles I loved about BoA taking on Meril was the CEO stating he will not bay Wall Street wages, he is paying banker maret rate. There is a man who knows who has the power.

When will Congress wake up and reaise who has the power? Banks need us to buy their garbage more than we need to bail them out. We can always get them in BK anyway. Time to peddle another plan.

Bayrenter1 - yea. I think McNearney knows he is a 1 termer. His party fed him to the wolves and he is gone. Remember, Pombo was voted out for his close ties with Abramoff. Well, I would rather vote fo Abramoff himself after that terrible partisan vote! The 11th distric was HUGELY anti-bailout.

Duke.

I think public (i.e. government) purchases of senior, preferred, voting, convertible stock does not necessarily count as nationalization, unless the public ends up holding a majority of the voting power. But that may be a fine distinction, I can agree.

I will support a plan that requires any rescue to take the form of senior, preferred, voting, convertible stock. But as always, the valuation of the companies and their debt is key, and the law must nail down a tight system for evaluating the price the public should pay for their share.

justme,

Deal.

Wow - that was easy. Why is this so hard in Congress?

Paul Says:

> On a lighter note-
> Whatever happened to the good ole days?

Rember when we had a large number of posters telling us we were crazy and real estate would never drop in value?

Case Shiller out.
SFO at 156.88.
Down 1.85% for July.
Down 24.81% YOY.
Down 28.16% from Peak.

I am now chosing a rate of 1.5%, and I show an equilbirum to normal BA prices in Nov. 2009 if there is no market overshoot.

This means we have 35% to go.

Even with a bailout, I think we WILL overshoot though. Either because the recession will be bad, or because the 'cure' of a bad bailout will be worse.

Also, part of my model presumes the BA appreciates at 4.25% per year - or about 1% faster than inflation. Sadly, we are not seeing tha kind of wage increases. So, if my model fails, it is too optimistic.

Please recall that at its peak, SF was 108% of normal.

Here's a link to a messageform that will send your thoughts about the bailout bill to all of your representatives, including Bush and Paulson.

http://congressorg.capwiz.com/congressorg/issues/alert/?alertid=11987806

I think a bailout will eventually happen, no matter what. Maybe in some modified form, but politicians want attention and it would be very hard for them not to be seen doing "something". Even if that something turns out to be counterproductive.

I have faith that our politicians will take this recession and turn it into something worse.

Still, it was heartening to see them do the right thing, if only momentarily.

If you wanted to know the whole simple story of how we got into this mess, here it is.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NU6fuFrdCJY

Please pass this around if you liked it.

"i would prefer a bailout rather than a depression."
So would we all. But that is a false dichotomy. Don't lend money to a compulsive gambler, don't through good money after bad.

Hey, use the Justme/Duke plan.
We recapitlaized the banks, preserved equity and debt, and actually put money to work that will fund the current need for credit.

Still, it was heartening to see them do the right thing, if only momentarily.

Or perhaps there were merely confused by the Mercury retrograde.

http://www.dailypaul.com/node/65539

Excellent speech by Thaddeus McCotter.

"There are no necessary evils in government. The Treasury to you, gentlemen, is closed."

So there are non-clowns other than Ron Paul. I stand corrected.

Guys, just an observation but the currency isn't collapsing. It is getting stronger. Money is starting to be worth something again. I look at this as a good thing. Look at gold and oil. Oil is falling consistently now, and gold jumped again due to the panic but is now back on a decline in balance with the gain of the dollar. I know people starting to buy houses literally with cash around the country. It is a new day, but we've got to think differently now than our parents did.

If we expect them not to rob us, we need to put something more permanent in place, and this means having a leader.

TOB, I agree. GWB has absolutely disappointed us.

Guys, just an observation but the currency isn’t collapsing. It is getting stronger. Money is starting to be worth something again.

Yes. I was chatting with a friend yesterday... dollar-euro parity is not impossible in the next few years.

This is because Europe sucks more.

Not investment advice.

Would LOVE to see more discussion on the video posted above. I came here to post it.

Can anyone provide insight into it's veracity?

tinyurl.com/3f5wzw

FormerAptBroker Says:
September 30th, 2008 at 6:42 am
Paul Says:
> On a lighter note-
> Whatever happened to the good ole days?
"Rember when we had a large number of posters telling us we were crazy and real estate would never drop in value?"

Yesterday I was in a room with some very scared 'former?' millionaires. I smiled internally as one said "Who could have seen this was coming?"

Who could have seen this was coming?

Yes... ;)

Who could have ignored the writings on the wall?

Malcolm,

Of course the dollar is stronger. We just saved $700 billion :)

The only thing we have to beware of is falling into a deflationary spiral... but Ben won't let that happen. They'll print money to balance it out.

The important thing about continuing to vote down the bill is the message behind it... that we will protect our currency.

This has been posted many times here, but I think it is important that we remember:

"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issuance of their currency, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."

-- Thomas Jefferson

TOB
What is that Bernanke quote? Where? When? Context?

How is this analysis:
1. Market is too crazy to be into. Deleveraging means we are ALL just waiting for the other show to drop. The death sprials of the hedgies and badly managed banks make the ride too hard for investors.
2. Bonds look bad as they may pop. If no rescue, we move into the phase of more than just equity stake holders getting wiped out, we move into debt-holders getting wiped out.
3. Treasuries look bad as massive holders of Treasuries may be dumping them to solve their own need for cash. Why buy a 0% T-Bill when you can get China's 5% bill below par?
4. Cash looks good as it is a realtive safe haven until we figure out which way all of this is going to break. I mean, inflation losses stink, but it seems to be a smaller loss than anything else.
5. In theory, gold should have been good but the momnertum plays by the big boys makes those waters to dangerous to swim in.

So - the dollar is strong as it is seemingly the safest store of value in these uncertain times. And with everyone wanting them, we are rallying the dollar.

Once the BailieMae bill is passed, dollar will fall then move back to reflecting ecnomic fundamentals. Which may be bad for Europe.