patrick.net

Mark D says

whatever happened to that perma-bear theory that rents only go up with income (chart #1)?

wait until the dollar bubble bursts (within 10 years according to my estimate) then watch the rents skyrocket when my mortgage remains the same.

If the dollar bursts, within 10 years, as you say; where will Japan, Europe and China be?

edvard2 says

Clearly you don't given that some platforms that Chrysler used in the 70's and 80's were still being used into the 2000's. The Ford Panther platform was used from 1978-2011, a full 30+ years.

These are rare extreme exceptions for special purpose vehicles, like the the Crown Vic taxi car. There are always old tech special purpose vehicles. If a company's business model consistes of living off those extremely aged platforms selling as new cars, it deserves to go bankrupt at any time. The AMC platforms that you were talking about in your previous post were replaced in the mid-1990's, two decades ago.

Not sure what you mean by "platform engineering is giving way to modular engineering" seeing as how every single current product model car on the planet utilizes some sort of platform. The term "platform" is generic. That would be like someone saying: " Oh yeah? Well frames in houses are now giving way to modular design." So exactly what do you think a "module" is anyway? Curious minds want to know.

Modular engineering in carmaking means major components that are interchangeable and independently upgradable, unlike the previous platform engineering approach. BMW's "flexible manufacturing" led the new engineering approach.

edvard2 says

Lastly, there is hardly an auto manufacture on earth that has not at one time gotten some sort of government bailout. Auto companies are important because they have an enormous economic impact on the countries the exist in and in each instance of those bailouts the decision was made not because of political ideology, but because of picking the better financial outcome of a bad financial situation.

Governments record of picking better financial outcomes is not what I would call great. The makers of horse drawn wagons had an enormous impact in the countries they existed. Should the ones that failed to make the decision to switch to cars have been bailed out? Companies that make bad business decisions should be in bankruptcy. If they can't work out a plan with the creditors to emerge then they should cease to exist.

You guys are all missing the point anyway. The 10.5 billion didn't save GM, it allowed the gm UAW workers to continue to have higher compensation than at the other automakers. Read up on the bailout and who got what. The UAW as a creditor got a very skewed percentage of the bailout at the expense of other creditors. Had the gm workers been cut to the industry average compensation the government wouldn't have lost a dime. That makes the bailout a calculated political play rather than any kind of altruistic concern for workers's jobs. Follow the money.

Anyone (there are many right here on patnet) who thinks that all the bailouts, auto and financial, were done on some kind of carefully considered basis after large amounts of analysis by industry experts needs to read neil barofsky's book. He was the ig for tarp. The amount of fast and loose playing with huge amounts of taxpayers money under paulson and geitner is pretty shocking. There are many times when word handout is more appropriate than than the word bailout. Want even better reading try Billionaires & Ballot Bandits: How to Steal an Election in 9 Easy Steps. Especially the parts about how romney made millions on the bailouts he condemned. and his hedge fund campaign contriibuters made billions. Follow the money.

Reality says

First of all, GM did go bankrupt, for the conventional creditors

True--poor choice of words.

Reality says

Having lost that principle, along with the loss of interest income thanks to FED ZIRP policy, the oldster savers are having less money to spend

The interest income is low but so is the inflation rate. That's what happens during a recession. Oldster savers are not the drivers of an economy anyway.

bob2356 says

Companies that make bad business decisions should be in bankruptcy.

No kidding. Why do people keep arguing this as if anyone disagreed???

tatupu70 says

bob2356 says

Companies that make bad business decisions should be in bankruptcy.

No kidding. Why do people keep arguing this as if anyone disagreed???

Because they aren't, and a whole bunch of them.

Reality says

These are rare extreme exceptions for special purpose vehicles, like the the Crown Vic taxi car. There are always old tech special purpose vehicles. If a company's business model consistes of living off those extremely aged platforms selling as new cars, it deserves to go bankrupt at any time. The AMC platforms that you were talking about in your previous post were replaced in the mid-1990's, two decades ago.

Those were two examples of many others. You are incorrect about some of AMC's platforms as well, with one, for example used in the Dodge Intrepid well into the 2000's. Reality says

Modular engineering in carmaking means major components that are interchangeable and independently upgradable, unlike the previous platform engineering approach. BMW's "flexible manufacturing" led the new engineering approach.

This is nothing new. This in fact has almost always been the case right up to the advent of the auto assembly line. For example, Ford made numerous versions of the "Windsor" family of engines that ranged from V6 and V8 models and in many cases the same components were used. As a classic car owner myself I can attest to this, seeing as how many parts that will fit a 302 also happens to fit the 289, 351, and others.

mell says

tatupu70 says

bob2356 says

Companies that make bad business decisions should be in bankruptcy.

No kidding. Why do people keep arguing this as if anyone disagreed???

Because they aren't, and a whole bunch of them.

Not sure what you are trying to say there...

tatupu70 says

Having lost that principle, along with the loss of interest income thanks to FED ZIRP policy, the oldster savers are having less money to spend

The interest income is low but so is the inflation rate. That's what happens during a recession.

Not the consumer staples, and most certainly not medical expense.

Oldster savers are not the drivers of an economy anyway.

Unemployment takes place on the margins. Oldsters are the biggest net consumers, especially on discretionary spending.

Maybe,soon, we will totally exit both wars on which the Republicans happily enjoyed spending $4-$6 trillion.
Hope you Rep/Con/Teas enjoy dumping this tax burden on your children & grandchildren.
I forgot! We don't have to fund anything.

Cypher this. What % of $4 trillion is $10 Billion?

That's the problem with Keynesian economics, what happens next is a black box for them, they have no clue or idea what the end game is. Well they know, but by then those that create the Keynesian policies have already cashed out and living on an island.
While free markets are left to clean up the mess.

Anything is only worth what someone is either willing to pay, or capable of paying. Right now there's just too many "Willing" to pay high prices.

If home prices drop, then there will be many people who had to take their lumps. If home prices drop and it becomes too expensive to build, then the leaches, roaches and rats that have the natural and manufactured resources out of touch with fundamentals, will just have to pull out those investments as well. And the price becomes based on supply and demand.

If you make drywall, either you'll meet the demand at what ever price, or you'll simply fold and let another innovator take over who can meet those demands for that new set price.

Keynesian love to strike fear in everyone, if their standard of living falls, then all hell will break lose. And 90% of the bastards they preach that shit to, stand absolutely nothing to lose. In fact they would stand more to gain by the reality. As a seat at the Keynesian economic structure table is closed club, that takes an act of congress to get a seat at the table, to sell your solar panels, batteries, wind mills and god knows what all else.

Lets be clear they damn sure don't make things more affordable.

Supply and Demand will have its final say.

edvard2 says

Those were two examples of many others. You are incorrect about some of AMC's platforms as well, with one, for example used in the Dodge Intrepid well into the 2000's

No not at all true. There were no common parts between the premier platform and the lh platform. Castaing used many idea's from the premier like engines mounted longitudinally, but no parts or tooling.

edvard2 says

Those were two examples of many others. You are incorrect about some of AMC's platforms as well, with one, for example used in the Dodge Intrepid well into the 2000's.

If you are referring to Dodge Intrepid (and the LH platform), then you are arguing for me: the buyout of AMC by Chrysler did not end the LH platform.

edvard2 says

Modular engineering in carmaking means major components that are interchangeable and independently upgradable, unlike the previous platform engineering approach. BMW's "flexible manufacturing" led the new engineering approach.

This is nothing new. This in fact has almost always been the case right up to the advent of the auto assembly line. For example, Ford made numerous versions of the "Windsor" family of engines that ranged from V6 and V8 models and in many cases the same components were used. As a classic car owner myself I can attest to this, seeing as how many parts that will fit a 302 also happens to fit the 289, 351, and others.

Nothing is ever new if you look back far enough. Even the electric car pre-dated the gasoline engine. The devil is in the details.

Reality says

Not the consumer staples, and most certainly not medical expense.

Overall inflation rate is low. Some things rise faster than the rate, some slower. That's why it's called a weighted average.

bob2356 says

No not at all true. There were no common parts between the premier platform and the lh platform. Castaing used many idea's from the premier like engines mounted longitudinally, but no parts or tooling.

The LH platform was used on the Chrysler Concorde, Chrysler LHS, Chrysler 300M, Dodge Intrepid. The LH was in fact derived from an older AMC/Renault design. But even if we were to entertain the notion that the LH platform shared little with original, the fact is that the LH platform was used for decades in of itself, which then would back up the previous claim I had made previously that platforms and often components are manufactured for decades on end.

tatupu70 says

Reality says

Not the consumer staples, and most certainly not medical expense.

Overall inflation rate is low. Some things are higher than the rate, some are lower. That's why it's called an weighted average.

How many new computers can an oldster buy and eat?
That's why "weighted average" is meaningless and prone to fraud when weighted by a bunch of bureaucrats.

HEY YOU says

Maybe,soon, we will totally exit both wars on which the Republicans happily enjoyed spending $4-$6 trillion.

Hope you Rep/Con/Teas enjoy dumping this tax burden on your children & grandchildren.

I forgot! We don't have to fund anything.

Cypher this. What % of $4 trillion is $10 Billion?

But we had to go into those wars. Can you imagine what the cost of not engaging in those wars would have been??

Those wars provided tons of jobs and economic activity. Had we not gone to war, the world probably would have stopped spinning.

edvard2 says

The LH platform was used on the Chrysler Concorde, Chrysler LHS, Chrysler 300M, Dodge Intrepid. The LH was in fact derived from an older AMC/Renault design. But even if we were to entertain the notion that the LH platform shared little with original, the fact is that the LH platform was used for decades in of itself, which then would back up the previous claim I had made previously that platforms and often components are manufactured for decades on end.

The buyout of AMC by Chrysler did not abort the LH development. So what's your objection over some better management team taking over GM? in whole or in parts.

Reality says

If you are referring to Dodge Intrepid (and the LH platform), then you are arguing for me: the buyout of AMC by Chrysler did not end the LH platform.

Quite the contrary actually, for if you were to read my previous response then you'd see that while yes- the AMC platform was the basis for the LH platform, that platform was itself used for decades, which further reinforces my previous statements.Reality says

Nothing is ever new if you look back far enough. Even the electric car pre-dated the gasoline engine. The devil is in the details.

Way to try to back out of a previous assertion by making bland and generalized comments. You were previously trying to suggest that "Modular engineering" is something totally new and different from platform design. A platform is a platform is a platform. Its the same as today with electronics in that almost every TV, stereo system, computer, and so on use a chassis to mount the surrounding electronic components and outer casing. You could take a radio from the 1920's and it too will also have a chassis, and just like cars, the same chassis design will often be employed across models. So what you were asserting earlier was sort of meaningless to start with.

Reality says

The buyout of AMC by Chrysler did not abort the LH development. So what's your objection over some better management team taking over GM? in whole or in parts.

Because that option was NOT on the table. At the time of GM's bankruptcy, there were no offers from any other company to buy them. So the option was to either liquidate the company or to keep them from going under.

All I know is that I and probably the majority out there are very pleased that the sort of ideas you seem to be alluding to were not employed. Political ideology makes for very poor economics.

I'll have to invest before I read about anything I'm investing in."

Reality says

How many new computers can an oldster buy and eat?

That's why "weighted average" is meaningless and prone to fraud when weighted by a bunch of bureaucrats.

No, that's why a computer is weighted much, much less than food.

edvard2 says

Reality says

If you are referring to Dodge Intrepid (and the LH platform), then you are arguing for me: the buyout of AMC by Chrysler did not end the LH platform.

Quite the contrary actually, for if you were to read my previous response then you'd see that while yes- the AMC platform was the basis for the LH platform, that platform was itself used for decades, which further reinforces my previous statements

Either:

1. LH platform Gen1 was used from 1993-1997, Gen2 from 1998-2004, so barely 1 decade. or

2. Change of corporate ownership did not put an end to LH platform development.

Either way, your fear of end of the world if GM went bankrupt was quite unfounded.

edvard2 says

Nothing is ever new if you look back far enough. Even the electric car pre-dated the gasoline engine. The devil is in the details.

Way to try to back out of a previous assertion by making bland and generalized comments. You were previously trying to suggest that "Modular engineering" is something totally new and different from chassis design. A platform is a platform is a platform.

I did not try to back out of anything. It's absurd to think just because electric cars were made in 1899, somehow a carmaker today switching from gasoline to electric would not involve tools and engineering approach that are entirely different from what they were doing a few years before the switch.

edvard2 says

. For example, Ford made numerous versions of the "Windsor" family of engines that ranged from V6 and V8 models and in many cases the same components were used. As a classic car owner myself I can attest to this, seeing as how many parts that will fit a 302 also happens to fit the 289, 351, and others

Also not true. The windsor engines were 221 to 351 v8's. There was never a v6 windsor. They weren't at all modular. It was just the same block with bigger bores and longer strokes with a higher deck for the 351.

Ford's current "modular" engine series 4.6 v8 to 6.8 v10 doesn't refer to modular engine design, it refers to the manufacturing process.

tatupu70 says

Reality says

How many new computers can an oldster buy and eat?

That's why "weighted average" is meaningless and prone to fraud when weighted by a bunch of bureaucrats.

No, that's why a computer is weighted much, much less than food.

The ratio is very different for different people. The expense on medicine as percentage of income is much much higher for certain demographics than for others.

bob2356 says

Also not true. The windsor engines were 221 to 351 v8's. There was never a v6 windsor. They weren't at all modular. It was just the same block with bigger bores and longer strokes with a higher deck for the 351.

You are correct and that was my mistake in that there was no V6 windsor. But nevertheless, the Windsor engines covered the 221, 260, 289, 302, 255, and 351. Many parts are indeed totally interchangeable with several of these. For example the engine in my car is a 302 and MANY parts on it that I have replaced were also the same specs as those used for the 289, and even further, some parts from these two engines will also 221 and 260 engines.Reality says

1. LH platform Gen1 was used from 1993-1997, Gen2 from 1998-2004, so barely 1 decade. or

Earlier you were claiming that these platforms were gone in the mid 90's. So now you are more or less changing your story. Reality says

2. Change of corporate ownership did not put an end to LH platform development.

Either way, your fear of end of the world if GM went bankrupt was quite unfounded.

As I said before, change of corporate ownership was not on the table at the point of GM's bailout. Its also over simplistic to paint business transactions the same way because the situation with AMC was TOTALLY different than that of GM. Reality says

I did not try to back out of anything. It's absurd to think just because electric cars were made in 1899, somehow a carmaker today switching from gasoline to electric would not involve tools and engineering approach that are entirely different from what they were doing a few years before the switch.

I didn't say you backed out of anything. All you did was simply make some sort of claim that somehow long-established general manufacturing design was this totally new thing and at the same time claiming that something as basic and technically generic like a platform was obsolete. That makes zero sense.

edvard2 says

You were previously trying to suggest that "Modular engineering" is something totally new and different from platform design.

It is. Read up on it. Comparing modular engineering to common platforms is absurd. It's totally different. Here's an article from motor trend about vw. http://www.motortrend.com/features/auto_news/2012/1202_explaining_volkswagen_mqb_architecture/

bob2356 says

It is. Read up on it. Comparing modular engineering to common platforms is absurd. It's totally different. Here's an article from motor trend about vw.

I think you might want to actually read what modular engineering is about. In general, its about the engineering and design of components, parts, or whatnot on an independent scale in a way so that these components and parts can be used together to make a whole.

So for example, if company "X" makes a certain part in their factory to serve as a component later to be married to say- an air conditioner- which is itself made of 100's of such parts from other suppliers then that is basically an example of " Modular" engineering- aka- parts that are designed independently to work with others to form a design, system, or device.

A classic example is something like a pipe organ. Say that you have a large pipe organ that's made in some shop. Each and every pipe is made separately and if one were to blow air into each one, they each make a tone. But put together in an organ they also work together. These pipes could be used in other organs too ( assuming each manufacture of said pipe were to have them perfectly tuned in advance)

So no- "Modular" engineering is not new, and in the case of auto manufacturing is a well-established practice.

Strategist says

That perma bear theory is crap. Rents are determined by demand and supply, and nothing else. No landlord in San Francisco cares if the McDonald burger flippers can afford rent or not.

Your example does not violate the "perma-bear" model. SF has one of the highest rental demand markets in the country and plenty of high wage earners in that rental demand pool. Rents go up with ALL incomes in that pool.

If the pooled finances of five burger flippers can't match the pocket change of a mid level banker who just needs a crash pad, the banker gets the apartment. Now take that same pad and put it in say Podunk, Mississippi. There may not be many highly compensated bankers around but there are plenty of burger flippers. Perhaps a single burger flipper can afford three such apartments in Podunk.

The real question is why do burger flippers bother to stay in SF.

Strategist says

So what's the solution?

More section 8 probably.

tatupu70 says

Good luck with that. All your neighbors are in the unemployement line that you are unfamilar with. None of them have any money to pay you, despite your admirable attitude.

Let me give an example if you can understand. Imagine a few people stranded in an island. There is no government, there is no corporation. But there is a plenty of land, great weather, and a reasonable supply of trees with fruits. Perhaps there are some wild goats and buffaloes around as well.

According to you, those people will starve to death since they are not getting their paychecks or unemployment benefits. They won't be able to figure out how to survive with available resources

gsr says

Let me give an example if you can understand. Imagine a few people stranded in an island. There is no government, there is no corporation. But there is a plenty of land, great weather, and a reasonable supply of trees with fruits. Perhaps there are some wild goats and buffaloes around as well.

According to you, those people will starve to death since they are not getting their paychecks or unemployment benefits. They won't be able to figure out how to survive with available resources

Actually, that is not at all what I'm saying. How in the world did you interpret my posts as what you wrote above?

If you can find an island with great weather and enough available (free) land, (free) fruits and wild game, to support the current number of unemployed people, please point me in the right direction. I'd like to head there myself.

Reality says

The ratio is very different for different people. The expense on medicine as percentage of income is much much higher for certain demographics than for others.

Of course. Again, that's why they use an AVERAGE.

gsr says

tatupu70 says

Good luck with that. All your neighbors are in the unemployement line that you are unfamilar with. None of them have any money to pay you, despite your admirable attitude.

Let me give an example if you can understand. Imagine a few people stranded in an island. There is no government, there is no corporation. But there is a plenty of land, great weather, and a reasonable supply of trees with fruits. Perhaps there are some wild goats and buffaloes around as well.

According to you, those people will starve to death since they are not getting their paychecks or unemployment benefits. They won't be able to figure out how to survive with available resources

Oh that's rich. I guess next you'll suggest that people could figure out how to live on their own, without constant government direction. Hahaha, like as if people lived before The State was there to micromanage them

errc says

Oh that's rich. I guess next you'll suggest that people could figure out how to live on their own, without constant government direction. Hahaha, like as if people lived before The State was there to micromanage them

What's rich is that people believe the above narrative supplied to them... As if the majority of unemployed people don't actually want to earn a good living. I'm sure it makes it easier to think of them as all lazy, no good, freeloaders, doesn't it?

What's keeping unemployed people that want to earn a good living, from doing so?

errc says

What's keeping unemployed people that want to earn a good living, from doing so?

They aren't able to find a new job? What's your point?

tatupu70 says

Reality says

The ratio is very different for different people. The expense on medicine as percentage of income is much much higher for certain demographics than for others.

Of course. Again, that's why they use an AVERAGE.

The term is called "Average" but has little bearing on the spending pattern of any specific demographic group, and certainly not weighted according to spending patterns of those with substantial savings. . . hence the lowering of interest rate to match inflation rate is little more than a lie, and it's actually an action to enrich the leveraged wealthy at the expense of the middle class. The result is:

1. The would be net-consumer demographic (oldster savers) have little money to do discretionary spending; hence less jobs for the youngsters who would be working for those jobs on the margins.

2. Financial leverage is further encouraged, in fact the financial gambling being goaded on by the FED.

tatupu70 says

errc says

Oh that's rich. I guess next you'll suggest that people could figure out how to live on their own, without constant government direction. Hahaha, like as if people lived before The State was there to micromanage them

What's rich is that people believe the above narrative supplied to them... As if the majority of unemployed people don't actually want to earn a good living. I'm sure it makes it easier to think of them as all lazy, no good, freeloaders, doesn't it?

Earning a good living by filing government papers is just a lot easier for many people than earning a good living by being a productive worker getting the nod from fellow individual consumers. You can't be honestly telling me disability is correlated with economic conditions of the society.