patrick.net

Memories are apparently short. People seem to be forgetting that from 2003-2007, the bubble was ALL anyone talked about at dinner parties. I'm starting to hear some of that same talk now. We might be towards the earlier side of a new bubble, but its here for sure and it like all the others will run its course.

edvard2 says

Memories are apparently short.

LOL! and that is the most remarkable part about bubbles... any bubble !

The amount of denial is so blatant..

tatupu70 says

You've got to be kidding me. You've obviously never done a valuation of a stock, bond, or option. It is basic finance--I can't believe you are so ill informed.

In order to do a proper valuation you must ESTIMATE future cash flows. And discount rate. Five people that do a valuation will almost certainly come up with five different answers.

Is it coming back now Thomas?

I just have to laugh when I read this.. to even flunk a simple bond valuation is unthinkable... there are no 5 different answers!

Its remarkable to really see the people here, neck deep in RE, they banked

everything on it..

It goes down... it goes down really bad for these folks... why they are deep in denial !

thomaswong.1986 says

I just have to laugh when I read this.. to even flunk a simple bond valuation is unthinkable... there are no 5 different answers!

Again-there is absolutely no way you are a controller. None. You lack the most basic accounting and finance skills.

Rew says

I'll play!

You add all the total home sale prices up and divide by the total number of sales. This gives you a median home price.

Why they are meaningless: because if you sell a few very expensive houses, or many many more affordable houses, the median will be about the same. So, the median itself doesn't tell us what the market is doing or made up of at all.

You're simplifying this to make a point. Yes- there are indeed overall medians for overall housing markets on a national, state, regional, metro, city,and neighborhood. Likewise there are also median statistics for upper, lower and medium levels of housing: for example, what the average 3 bedroom, 2 bath home sells for in a given neighborhood.

It is the statistical collection of these medians that determine current value of any given area. If that wasn't true then someone could say: " Well, my neighbor's house sold for $250,000... so I'm going to put mine on sale for a Million!" Of course you wouldn't do that: You would price based on studying your local market-aka- what is the MEDIAN that the homes in your area are selling at.

Again- this is super, super basic fundamental economics.

Its important to understand how mathematics and economics go hand in hand.

tatupu70 says

I just have to laugh when I read this.. to even flunk a simple bond valuation is unthinkable... there are no 5 different answers!

Again-there is absolutely no way you are a controller. None. You lack the most basic accounting and finance skills.

Thats OK...I will have a good laugh and continue with my prosperous career...

But I will know YOU couldnt pass the CPA or CFA exam because you cant do a simple Bond valuation problem and you come up with 5 different answers.

thomaswong.1986 says

But I will know YOU couldnt pass the CPA or CFA exam because you cant do a simple Bond valuation problem and you come up with 5 different answers.

I explained how the bond valuation is done and also why different people will get different answers (in the real world). On an exam, there is one answer because all the variables are provided for you. In the real world, when you have to estimate, different people will get different answers.

If you think I'm wrong, please explain why. Otherwise, I'll assume you don't know...

tatupu70 says

I explained how the bond valuation is done and also why different people will get different answers (in the real world). On an exam, there is one answer because all the variables are provided for you. In the real world, when you have to estimate, different people will get different answers.

If you think I'm wrong, please explain why. Otherwise, I'll assume you don't know...

Im not going to explain jack fucking shit cause you dont know how to do a simple valuation of Future cash flow...... your neck deep in RE and like many in denial...

You made your own noose, now hang from it.

tatupu70 says

OK--let me get this straight. Stating the obvious fact that:

People losing their jobs decreases demand

is the same as saying:

GM had to be bailed out because of the risk that employees would lose their jobs??

Where in the hell do you get that???

Um, because that's the subject of this thread. If CL argues that the bailout was necessary to preserve demand, and you chime in and ALSO say that saving jobs preserves demand, then yeah, it sounds a bit like you're arguing in favor of the bailout.

But I guess you aren't; you're just being a disingenuous troll arguing only for the sake of argument.

CL says

In any case, the Obama administration did gently guide them into bankruptcy, as opposed to allowing the entire system to go into a death spiral.

Tell that to the Bondholders about "Gently"... whats that supposed to mean anyway
vs a "Reorganization Bankruptcy"..... how is that a death spiral ?

What death spiral did PG&E go through.. why are they still around ?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_Chapter_11_reorganization

Homeboy says

Um, because that's the subject of this thread. If CL argues that the bailout was necessary to preserve demand, and you chime in and ALSO say that saving jobs preserves demand, then yeah, it sounds a bit like you're arguing in favor of the bailout.

Seems like it might be a terrible idea if the Government is trying to stave off collapse and to contain the damage, that they would just allow an even more costly disaster to simply "take its course."

Further, wasn't allowing Lehman to collapse the previous administration's biggest economic regret? Didn't that cause a whole lot of panic? The free-marketeers suddenly weren't into that creative destruction mantra they spout to get the votes of the rightwing electorate. They're all Keynesians at heart.

thomaswong.1986 says

"Gently"... whats that supposed to mean anyway

Even in the link you provided, Lehman and Wamu were two of the top 4 largest bks in history. If GM were to suddenly collapse, I think it's reasonable to believe that we would have had much longer and painful turmoil. But who cares, as long as we have ideological purity, embraced by a minority!

thomaswong.1986 says

If home prices didnt fall,, how do you explain the large % of homes that sold for a loss?

I never said they didn't fall. They most assuredly did.

edvard2 says

It is the statistical collection of these medians that determine current value of any given area. If that wasn't true then someone could say: " Well, my neighbor's house sold for $250,000... so I'm going to put mine on sale for a Million!" Of course you wouldn't do that: You would price based on studying your local market-aka- what is the MEDIAN that the homes in your area are selling at.

This is a comparative price, NOT a median. Comps ARE important for price determination ... Medians are not.

Both do not tell you anything predictive about market health, bubbles, future etc.

thomaswong.1986 says

Im not going to explain jack fucking shit cause you dont know how to do a simple valuation of Future cash flow...... your neck deep in RE and like many in denial...

You made your own noose, now hang from it.

That's what I expected. You don't know.

Homeboy says

Um, because that's the subject of this thread. If CL argues that the bailout was necessary to preserve demand, and you chime in and ALSO say that saving jobs preserves demand, then yeah, it sounds a bit like you're arguing in favor of the bailout.

Try reading my comment next time and you won't make that mistake.

The subject of the thread is how much the bailout cost the taxpayers. And lost tax revenue is most definitely an appropriate subject for discussion. So you're pretty much 0-2.

If you'd calm down, you might not make that mistake next time...

CL says

Further, wasn't allowing Lehman to collapse the previous administration's biggest economic regret? Didn't that cause a whole lot of panic? The free-marketeers suddenly weren't into that creative destruction mantra they spout to get the votes of the rightwing electorate. They're all Keynesians at heart.

The wealthy are Keynesians at heart, yes, to their own benefit and at the detriment of the middle class.

CL says

Even in the link you provided, Lehman and Wamu were two of the top 4 largest bks in history. If GM were to suddenly collapse, I think it's reasonable to believe that we would have had much longer and painful turmoil. But who cares, as long as we have ideological purity, embraced by a minority!

The rule of law and the free market are not ideological impurities. They protect countries from sliding into poverty and fascism.

I wonder if Ellison has what it takes to be a Thought Leader in an anarcho-cannibalistic economic system.

Rew says
The exact middle between the highest and lowest sold house (Median) isn't very relevant in market prediction or health either. With a median it only takes 1 very low or high priced house to skew the middle. (That actually seems worse!)

Yeah, it has limited use especially when your data is limited.

The graph shows we recently hit an all time high in median prices of new homes sold. I would have thought we have ways to go before we hit that number.

I'll add a few ideas to the mix:

Pirates! There would be no end of desperately poor people lining up to take their shot at the assholes who not only destroyed any shot they had at a better life but convinced them it was their fault. A few knives and AKs is all it takes.

Mines! Nuff said.

Sharks! - Gives me goose pimples just thinking about it - someone call the Discovery Channel!

Now THAT'S reality TV worth watching!

This is insane. While I think some of the intelligence is cooked, to accuse it of being a Zionist plot without any proof is ridonkulous. If anyone staged it, it was likely a Saudi plot since they are supplying the rebels with arms (and I don't even think it is them either).

The Israelis have nothing to gain and everything to lose if Assad is removed from power at the expense of Sunni extremists. Alawite refugees would cause a massive exodus, destabilizing the region even further. Their best scenario is what is happening now, or Assad regaining power, for stability. The devil you know is better than the one you don't.

You give the Israelis too little credit for doing what is in their best interest. (and I think you are really infatuated with this whole Yinon Zionist cabal theory)

New Renter says

There would be no end of desperately poor people lining up to take their shot at the assholes who not only destroyed any shot they had at a better life but convinced them it was their fault.

I dunno: killing the job craters with 50-cal. sniper rifles would increase their security costs, which they would just pass on to us in the form of higher prices for goods and services.

Plus: if there are no job craters, nobody will ever have jobs again!

Not insane. Russia flys a tattered false flag dipped in the insecticide of post communistic populatory excess.
Time for us to wake up and smell the Borscht.

Waitingtobuy says

This is insane. While I think some of the intelligence is cooked, to accuse it of being a Zionist plot without any proof is ridonkulous. If anyone staged it, it was likely a Saudi plot since they are supplying the rebels with arms (and I don't even think it is them either).

Claims that are made without evidence can be dismissed without evidence.

-Christopher Hitchens

How about you expanding on YOUR statement and providing a scrap of evidence for your outlandish claims. I think if the toaster burnt your waffle you would say it was a Zionist plot.

CL says

homaswong.1986 says

"Gently"... whats that supposed to mean anyway

Even in the link you provided, Lehman and Wamu were two of the top 4 largest bks in history. If GM were to suddenly collapse, I think it's reasonable to believe that we would have had much longer and painful turmoil. But who cares, as long as we have ideological purity, embraced by a minority!

Do you see any Painful turmoil when PG&E went into similar Ch 11 reorganization..

How did ALL OF THE Airlines do... did our Airlines also go into Painful turmoil ?

Have you traveled lately ?

CL says

Seems like it might be a terrible idea if the Government is trying to stave off collapse and to contain the damage, that they would just allow an even more costly disaster to simply "take its course.

I can think of much more efficient ways to inject liquidity into the market than forcing market share AWAY from well-run companies and toward a poorly-run behemoth. I don't believe Keynes ever advocated welfare for bloated mega-corporations. His idea was to enact public-works projects and the like.

Companies go out of business, go bankrupt, or restructure all the time, and yet lo and behold, the U.S. economy still exists. Where's Pan Am? Where's AMC? How does the U.S. continue to exist without those jobs?

CL says

Further, wasn't allowing Lehman to collapse the previous administration's biggest economic regret? Didn't that cause a whole lot of panic? The free-marketeers suddenly weren't into that creative destruction mantra they spout to get the votes of the rightwing electorate. They're all Keynesians at heart.

I have no idea what you're talking about. What is a "creative destruction mantra"?

CL says

If GM were to suddenly collapse, I think it's reasonable to believe that we would have had much longer and painful turmoil.

It seems awfully convenient to me that supposedly the only way to stave off "sudden collapse" is to enrich the investor class at the expense of the working class, and the people who gave this advice were members of the investor class. Sorry, not buying it.

Homeboy says

Companies go out of business, go bankrupt, or restructure all the time, and yet lo and behold, the U.S. economy still exists. Where's Pan Am? Where's AMC? How does the U.S. continue to exist without those jobs?

Or even a Delorean.... some bought all the parts and are making them in Texas

life for even a Delorean goes on...so some jobs are actually created..

http://delorean.com/for-sale/

Clearly Russia has no political motives in the region, so we should take what they say at face value.

Also, those first hand videos of 8 year olds panicked in the streets ... darn awesome acting schools in Syria.

The multiple soil sample scientists, they are in on it too. This one is a bigger conspiracy than 911. (snicker)

bgamall4 says

Israel controls much of the US press.

What? The scarier truth is, humans actually have very little control over one another. Thin veil of society and all.

SoftShell says

Not insane. Russia flys a tattered false flag dipped in the insecticide of post communistic populatory excess.

What kind of word salad are you making today SoftShell? Can we get it with croutons?

One thing that gets overlooked is that a large percentage of underwater homeowners seems to lead to prices rising, not falling, because inventory dries up. People can't sell so they stay put.

Zionists made a dingo eat my baby.

Call it Crazy says

tatupu70 says

People can't sell so they stay put.

What if they want or need to sell for a job change or economic reasons but are underwater... Should they short-sell and trash their credit for a job change??

What are these job opportunites you speak of? If you are getting a better job offer somewhere you are in the minority and probably not underwater to begin with.

I have a old co-worker who bought a 2 bedroom condo in 2006 in Los Angeles area for $480k... Its worth about $350k now... He's prob not underwater cause he made a large downpayment... But he's stubborn and refuses to sell until he can atleast break even. Even though his original plan was to move up to a house by now. He's freelancing now so its probably harder to qualify for a new mortgage anyway.

Rew says

This is a comparative price, NOT a median. Comps ARE important for price determination ... Medians are not.

Both do not tell you anything predictive about market health, bubbles, future etc.

No... let me re-explain this in as simple of terms as possible. If you live in "X" area and you have a home to sell, then your agent would take a look at recent sales and given the median of those sales, suggest pricing accordingly. Understand what the term " Median" means: It means that the collective average pricing for a given asset is what can be used to determine an overall basis for value.Rew says

The exact middle between the highest and lowest sold house (Median) isn't very relevant in market prediction or health either. With a median it only takes 1 very low or high priced house to skew the middle. (That actually seems worse!)

Then you must be much, much smarter than all of the economists and banking industry folks who use medians as a predicting factor.

You think the the gas attacks in Libya were because of Zionists. I ask for evidence and the first "proof" you give is that your father was Jewish. I wonder what a psychologist would have to say about that. All that is going wrong in the world is because of my dad!

Homeboy says

Companies go out of business, go bankrupt, or restructure all the time, and yet lo and behold, the U.S. economy still exists. Where's Pan Am? Where's AMC? How does the U.S. continue to exist without those jobs?

Those events didn't occur within the confines of an economic crisis, did they?

Everything that was done has to be viewed in the context of how much the system could withstand at that moment.

I'm no fan of Bush and Hank, but I do believe them when they rejected their free-market ideologies and did what they did, knowing that it would cost them the support of ideologues who believe in "the free market" as a God.

The truth is, we are all interdependent. I wouldn't advise stressing a patient on life support by throwing in unnecessary surgery. The system was in dire shape and is still recovering today.

There were no buyers for a large auto manufacturing firm. There was no great company that would have swooped in to save the day. It would have been more costly and foolish to let a large employer collapse at that juncture.

They did go into bankruptcy, but an orderly one. Are you advocating for a disorderly one?

If the issue was a loss of aggregate demand, wouldn't it have even made sense to INCREASE government employment, rather than austerity? There are avenues in place to get people working easily, who then are consumers, who then shop and pay bills which improves the entire economy.

If the problem is employment and demand, then hire and pay consumers.

dtbristol says

You think the the gas attacks in Libya were because of Zionists.

What gas attacks in Libya? Did you mean Syria?

BoomAndBustCycle says

Call it Crazy says

tatupu70 says

People can't sell so they stay put.

What if they want or need to sell for a job change or economic reasons but are underwater... Should they short-sell and trash their credit for a job change??

The inability to move due to underwater mortgages is a hidden yet enormous drain on the economy