patrick.net

I was thinking about this the other day: If any of you were active on some of the original housing bubble blogs circa 2003-2004 or so, if you were to read a thread like this you would see almost the exact same language and arguments being made. The fact that this blog and a few others seem to slowly be coming back to an increase in debates about actual real estate and not the plethora of endless liberal versus conservative diatribes shows that we have probably come full circle and the cycle is now starting all over again: There are the same arguments being made by the deniers and the believers. And so here we go again.

I recall an old saying back in the good ole' bubble days: If people are talking about a housing bubble, then the bubble started well before then.

marcus says

What a frickin idiot.

New Rule: Anyone is allowed to advocate for one (1) wackaloon conspiracy theory on the Internet - Kennedy, moon "landings", whatever.

If advocacy of a second such fable becomes known, the following steps shall be taken:

1) Said idiot shall be declared an ASSHOLE, with notices to that effect broadcast over the air and posted on the Internet

2) All Internet access to any domicile known to house said ASSHOLE shall be revoked as long as the ASSHOLE is known to inhabit said domicile

3) The ASSHOLE shall be licensed as a realtor in all 50 states, and a photo of said ASSHOLE placed on a Prudential Real Estate office wall in each state. Bus-bench ads, advertising said ASSHOLE's face, together with an offer of realty services shall also be purchased in the ASSHOLE's neighborhood.

Bigsby says

It's precisely because they were new sites that they could be changed. Barely anyone had visited them. They had less than 200 likes. The people who had created them decided to use them for another purpose. Exactly how many millions of people use facebook? And you think it is strange a couple of people repurposed their pages? You who believe some of the most outlandish conspiracy nonsense going and that you constantly peddle on here think THAT is strange. Give me strength.

Come on man...it's not just Facebook. You obviously didn't read the whole link. There were websites where this happened too, and it's indisputable because the date stamp is when the article is posted and it's tracked in the URL itself. See here:
http://fellowshipoftheminds.com/2013/01/16/guide-for-how-to-talk-to-children-about-sandy-hook-pre-dated-the-massacre/

Once again...even if there's a "glitch", how could this happen for the same event in about 5-6 separate instances? It's ridiculous.

I love this tidbit. CNN shows video of a swat team running into Sandy Hook, but it's not even the same location...they showed some random scene of guys running into a building that's not Sandy Hook elementary school.

http://fellowshipoftheminds.com/2013/01/22/cnns-live-aerial-footage-of-police-running-into-sandy-hook-was-of-another-school/

bgamall4 says

Zionism has, according to the translator of the plan, Israel Shahak, the power over the US press. The goal is to weaken the US, and the housing bubble was crucial to that. The goal is to weaken the US, steal the wealth, and disarm the Americans.

The weaker Americans are, the stronger the neocons/Yinon Zionists are. Shahak's predictions of main stream media control over the conversation is true with 9/11, Sandy Hook, and with regime change in the middle east which we bought into in the Iraq War with no clue about the origin of the motive.

Yinon wanted regime change in Iraq back in the1980's, and the neocons adopted the plan and finally came to power with Bush/Cheney.

It is the banker/neocon/yinon zionist/mainstream media cabal at work.

Shit, I almost spilt my coffee on my laptop. Thanks for the laugh though. Damn, you are one crazy SOB.
Mind, I think you still need to expand on the role of Sandy Hook in all of this as it got rather lost in your laugh out loud mix of conspiracies.

Whatever. Like I said, those who do not learn from history are prone to repeat it. The fact that people are already talking about a housing bubble means we have already been in one for some time. As I mentioned in another post, this thread is EXACTLY like the very same conversations being had circa 2003-2007, and the very same outcome will happen as well. Its not a matter of if, but how long this one will take to play itself out. It almost feels nostalgic. Its been awhile since we've seen these " There is no bubble!" type of arguments.

There's no sense in continuing this conversation if you won't even acknowledge what is accepted history and fact.

edvard2 says

And as currently seen with today's new bubble, much of that same sort of action is happening again

No it's not. Underwriting standards are good. Appraisers aren't lying. Mortgages aren't being securitized to anywhere close the same degree.

None of the same action is happening now.

tatupu70 says

No it's not. Underwriting standards are good. Appraisers aren't lying. Mortgages aren't being securitized to anywhere close the same degree.

None of the same action is happening now.

So I suppose we can add you to the list of deniers then. Good. That way it'll be like the good ole' days with the two sides arguing. Makes for good housing bubble blog content.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

A real bear is long yams.

or honey

bgamall4 says

debyne says

I love this tidbit. CNN shows video of a swat team running into Sandy Hook, but it's not even the same location...they showed some random scene of guys running into a building that's not Sandy Hook elementary school.

http://fellowshipoftheminds.com/2013/01/22/cnns-live-aerial-footage-of-police-running-into-sandy-hook-was-of-another-school/

Yeah, the plants and the landscaping is totally different than Sandy Hook, lol. What a bunch of idiots. CNN was the station that paraded neocon warmonger after neocon warmonger on saying that Obama's bombing Syria would not be enough and we would need troups on the ground. I hate CNN.

And do you think the part that he circles in the other school looks like the one on CNN because I must say that I fail to see the resemblance?

I would suggest reading this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_bubble

Definition:
"An economic bubble (sometimes referred to as a speculative bubble, a market bubble, a price bubble, a financial bubble, a speculative mania or a balloon) is "trade in high volumes at prices that are considerably at variance with intrinsic values".[1][2][3] It could also be described as a situation in which asset prices appear to be based on implausible or inconsistent views about the future.[4]"

But a few key pieces from it are things like this:

"According to the explanation, excessive monetary liquidity (easy credit, large disposable incomes) potentially occurs while fractional reserve banks are implementing expansionary monetary policy (i.e. lowering of interest rates and flushing the financial system with money supply); this explanation may differ in certain details according to economic philosophy. Those who believe the money supply is controlled exogenously by a central bank may attribute an 'expansionary monetary policy' to said bank and (should one exist) a governing body or institution; others who believe that the money supply is created endogenously by the banking sector may attribute such a 'policy' with the behavior of the financial sector itself, and view the state as a passive or reactive factor."

I had mentioned this very thing in a previous post.

"Simply put, economic bubbles often occur when too much money is chasing too few assets, causing both good assets and bad assets to appreciate excessively beyond their fundamentals to an unsustainable level. Once the bubble bursts, the fall in prices causes the collapse of unsustainable investment schemes (especially speculative and/or Ponzi investments, but not exclusively so), which leads to a crisis of consumer (and investor) confidence that may result in a financial panic and/or financial crisis"

As seen with current affordability indexes, appreciation has indeed been excessive and hence unsustainable in regards to the aforementioned index.

"Popular among laymen but not fully confirmed by empirical research,[7][8] greater fool theory portrays bubbles as driven by the behavior of a perennially optimistic market participants (the fools) who buy overvalued assets in anticipation of selling it to other speculators (the greater fools) at a much higher price."

As seen in this and other posts we definitely have "Perennially optimistic" investors whom just like the last bubble were present on forums such as these, whom never- ever for a moment even whispered the word " bubble" and over time were proven wrong.

bgamall4 says

First attack the messenger. You are well trained, you dog.

You posted what you posted. Is that my fault? It was a gem.

bgamall4 says

Second, the connection of Sandy Hook in this is the general attempt on the part of the cabal to weaken America as a whole. Stealing from America through the housing bubble and wars in the middle east goes along with disarming America. Weakening America makes Americans more dependent on mainstream media and less educated and discerning.

Shahak predicted the Zionists would come after America and he predicted that the press would do the Zionists bidding.

And that is a very close second. You think Sandy Hook weakened America as a whole? How did it do that? It's the sort of event that brings a country together (albeit for a short time and with the exception of the conspiracy nuts out there who would no doubt run a mile from any social contact with others).

And let me guess, America would be more educated and discerning if only it tuned in to Bgamall's go to conspiracy websites instead of the usual media outlets. Let's just say it's the sort of 'education' that any sane person would be best served giving a wide berth.

Oh, and just out of curiousity, exactly how did the instigators of this grand zionist plot manage to rope in so many thousands of every day Americans, from very young children to OAPs, in this amazingly convoluted supposed scheme of theirs?

Look at this asshole, he thinks he can mind read people over the internet and determine if theyre mad or not? lol

SubOink, i'm not mad at you. i think you are an overwhelmingly pea brained nobody. you come on here barking bout having a 30 year mortgage like its a great achievement to someone who has had a paid off house for over a decade in one of the most desirable areas of san francisco, and unwittingly make yourself look like an idiot. why would that make me mad? it brings me great amusement to see you looking and acting like a dumb asshole

lol

The man changes his mind more than Ross Perot having a senior moment.

Call it Crazy says

Check out the date of the article in your link...

Whoa - Good catch!

A pre-dated article is a sure sign that Yanni Zionists planted this disinfo, but cui bono?

House prices always fall when the economy grows at a 4% annual rate and unemployment is falling.

Rates are up! mortgage apps are down! Recovery is just around the corner!

edvard2 says

Its fallen to levels the lowest in over four years, and in major metros like SF,
LA, NYC, Boston, and so on, those affordabilty numbers are far, far worse.

Edward - your point is taken about terrible affordability (per your link, SF is only affordable to 14% of the middle class). Yet, if you want to know if that constitutes a bubble, its important to note how affordable or unaffordable SF is, relative to its long term average. I.e. has SF been perpetually unaffordable or is this a new condition?

In point of fact, trulia does (first link to your link) measure the long term affordability, and determine overvalue/undervalue relative to long term fundamentals.

http://trends.truliablog.com/2013/08/bubble-watch/

Thus, their conclusion SF (which has a long history of being unaffordable to the middle class) is a mere +4% overvalued relative to long term fundamentals.

So yes it is overvalued by 4%, but again, that has little to do with affordability. Yes, SF is affordable to only 14% of the middle class, but that is (per Trulia) only 4% above its long term average of perpetual unaffordability to the vast majority the middle class.

Iwag says

Look at this asshole, he thinks he can mind read people over the internet and determine if theyre mad or not? lol

SubOink, i'm not mad at you. i think you are an overwhelmingly pea brained nobody. you come on here barking bout having a 30 year mortgage like its a great achievement to someone who has had a paid off house for over a decade in one of the most desirable areas of san francisco, and unwittingly make yourself look like an idiot. why would that make me mad? it brings me great amusement to see you looking and acting like a dumb asshole

lol

ok then...tell us how you really feel...

:)

thats better, quiet and subdued suits you

glad i could help

Yes, thank you for all the help. I do want to make you aware of a spelling mistake on your name. Take the I and the G and replace it with a T.

Now go on and fix it.

You are welcome!

you can't brag about having a mortgage anymore so i guess this is the natural progression for your type

flat lined prices in concord, fact

lies, lies and more lies

why dont you just claim 3,000% gains

no one believes you anyway, you know that right?

oh thats a lie and you know it. we know for a fact that you care and care a lot

someone who has 16000 post on a forum definitely cares

Is there a recovery or not?

This is my last chance before I'm priced out forever. Where have I heard that before?

Is this just for california? Or does this apply to texas, florida, georgia, pennsylvania, ohio, michigan, oklahoma, kentucky, nebraska,maine, louisiana and south carolina as well?

Last chance? LOL. Like, there will be no more suckers in the future. Very funny!

Yup, those welfare rolls just keep growing.

The market here is fairly sewn up. You either have the desirable property or you'd better be willing to pay a premium for the few that come up for sale. I've no idea if or when this state will change. This place is nuts.

Here's my (somewhat) contrarian take. As Ivy Zelman noted, it's different this time: "In many ways, the current recovery is unique in that price was pulled forward to the beginning of the cycle, versus an accelerating trend in prior rebounds". This frontloading is due to the Keynesian fantasyland we've been living in. We now begin the slide (sideways) to oblivion as you gotta pay the piper at some point for the (economy saving) stimulus.

Interesting. For someone who wants to try and deny there is a bubble, you sure are pushing a bubble awfully hard. Classic tactic of trying to goad people into buying houses via little scare tactics...

Iwag says

you can't brag about having a mortgage anymore so i guess this is the natural progression for your type

I can't ? Why?

bgamall4 says

Yeah, the plants and the landscaping is totally different than Sandy Hook,
lol. What a bunch of idiots. CNN was the station that paraded neocon warmonger
after neocon warmonger on saying that Obama's bombing Syria would not be enough
and we would need troups on the ground. I hate CNN.

And, FYI, the CNN anchor of numerous shows, Wolf Blitzer, is a former employee of AIPAC( the zionist lobby org funded by Israel)!! Why didn't you know that?

It's all starting to come together now and make no sense.

What's happening in SFBA is that with low inventory, the technocrats get first dibs. A couple both working as google software engineering for example can easily make 240K base and with bonuses/options, over/under is 300K. With inventory being so low, naturally they will get first dibs. And their "bus routes" are not limited to S.F. In fact, there's a stop for dublin/pleasanton....I know several people in my development who "ride the wi-fi bus"....as long as tech sector is strong and inventory is paltry, they will price the lower income earners out. The downside to some people being well compensated is that they utilize their relative power index to reduce the standard of living of their competitors. I don't see sfba house prices lessening unless tech sector experiences massive layoffs.

I don't know about saying that this is the last chance to buy but I don't think that houses are going to get dramatically cheaper in the short term. If price fall slightly due to higher interest rates, the cost for the non cash buyer is not going to decrease.

Ducky said: The large price gains in the beginning of the cycle are the result of a large overshoot to the downside.
I don't disagree. But banks had tremendous holes in their balance sheet so the Fed gave as much help as possible to keep them afloat by pulling even more demand forward. You ARE an example of this. And so is Roberto. He went all in when he saw the writing on the wall (one of his great Pat.net posts). Hard money lender didn't come through so he raided his retirement accounts, because he knew, in the end, he could refie into a conventional loan. You guys ain't unique. Pkennedy and Eman loading up on their 4 Fannie loans per person. This put a floor on prices and then poured gasoline on the uptrend. Add in the big boys buying houses for their funds (many of them ultimately dumping the securitized rental streams into the market). You also have the highly leveraged mREITs to sop up the loans. This allows banks to continue to patch up their balance sheets and stay afloat.
That said, the trend lines are ominous.

I don't get it.

Cash’s dominance is a sign of the fact that it’s more costly and hard to get financing.

3/4 of cash sales are investors, why do investors need financing if they already have access to cash?

Why is financing more costly now?, interest rate is at a record low.

I remember hearing someone say something like that in 2006. It was along the lines of "buy now or be priced out FOREVER".