patrick.net

clambo says

I know this figure from a source that is not public I was helping someone study
who wants to be in the Nationwide Mortgage Licensing System (NMLS). This is a
new requirement for mortgage originators. She paid for a course and so I can't
provide a link here.

lol--you sound like that old rootvg guy that guaranteed that Romney would beat Obama. He also has secret sources that were in the know....

The data is clear and the percentage of mortgages that are subprime is MUCH, MUCH less than 50%. You are way off.

clambo says

The subject was boring to me but I'm always curious. I was actually shocked to
read the figure that about 1/2 of the mortgages in the U.S.A are sub-prime.

You should be shocked--it's complete BS.

clambo says

I found a reference if interested.

The document was from 2008.

copy/pasting portions that may interest some:

If you can copy and paste then you can link to this mysterious secret document. Like tatapua said complete bs.

This is starting to concern me a little bit. Still early in the spring buying season, so let's hope it's just a pause. I do know they will have to ease off on tight loan requirements, and when that happens all the pent up demand that has been accumulating over the last 6 years will release its energy like a tsunami.
Qualified buyers who postpone their home buying plans will look back after a few years and kick themselves for missing yet another opportunity to buy at bargain prices.
Potential buyers.......you have been warned.

Call it Crazy says

Strategist says

Maybe they finally realized there was no hope, and gave up on you and the bear gang.

Maybe they finally listened to the bear gang and are furiously selling all their crap shacks and getting out before this bubble pops and are too busy to post here...

Something tells me they are on a beach in Jamaica, desperately trying to buy more properties on their cell phones.

Call it Crazy says

Strategist says

Qualified buyers

That, I believe, is the problem...

There aren't enough "qualified buyers" who can afford to buy (or have the down payment/savings) at these rates and prices....

Just lower the benchmark for what makes a 'qualified buyer"
First time buyers will not always have perfect credit or a 10 year job history.
We bailed out the asses of the major banks, now it's payback time.

They are not able to lower the benchmark.

Without a very lengthy post, the actual source of capital is not just banks, and so they have others who determine the rules of underwriting.

What matters today is 1. verifiable income v loan 2. credit score .

With a credit score under 720 you may be waiting a while.

Want to buy with nothing down? Be a veteran.

I copy/pasted the important passages for you.

Tatupu, I am mystified by your attitude but I realize this is the internet.

I have no interest in anyone believing nor disbelieving me, I don't care.

Here's a link. If you forward to pg. 5 you'll see some info.

$2.51 trillion sub-prime+$3.035 trillion Alt A=$5.545 trillion.
Fed total estimate=$9.42 trillion.
The data are as of 2008.
http://www.aei.org/files/2011/02/09/Pinto%20Government-Housing-Policies-in-the-Lead-up-to-the-Financial-Crisis-3-Memoranda-2.5.11-rev.7.25.11.pdf

My "mystery documents" may be more recent,

clambo says

I have no interest in anyone believing nor disbelieving me, I don't care.

Here's a link. If you forward to pg. 5 you'll see some info.

Did you read page 1-3? The guy just made up his own definitions. More grad student publish or perish junk.

Call it Crazy says

, because this spending binge flows through most of the different wage levels...

That's because one of the tenets of capitalism is that money and especially the consumption that it brings buys happiness. There's definitely a significant amount of truth to that - buying stuff and experiences brings satisfaction to our hedonistic ID as opposed to some communist nirvana about "brighter tomorrow."

It's people's nature to not save, it's like entropy increasing naturally.
It takes discipline to save money. It's a decision you must make, there are many outside influences for you to spend all of it.
Ads, females, peers, all may judge you or worse call you a "cheapskate" which these days doesn't carry such a stigma.
I had a yuppie female visit me from Mexico's richest town. She was a bit snobby. I showed her the Capitola Goodwill. She loved some stuff she found and was amazed. I had to buy her another suitcase to take her shit home when she left: Briggs&Riley for $7 ($480 new)

Maybe those 92 million people out of the workforce are part of the problem, and the millions of illegal workers who displaced them are mostly renters.

CaptainShuddup says

If you're single you'll do with out a lot things

True. It's much easier to do without cable TV and at home high speed internet at home when it's just you.

clambo says

It's people's nature to not save

Corrected:
It's stupid people's nature to not save

CaptainShuddup says

in fact married people making between 62K to 96K pay more taxes than singles making the same, or married people making more. In the form of a marriage penalty.

What's keeping them from getting divorced, just to save on taxes? People do it.

clambo says

It's people's nature to not save, it's like entropy increasing naturally.

It takes discipline to save money. It's a decision you must make, there are many outside influences for you to spend all of it.

The problem is that a comfortable living, used to cost a lot less. So today, a guy in that one bedroom condo with a vehicle and a few trips, here and there, is probably already stretched.

But at the same time, once you've developed a setpoint, it's a lot easier to stick with it. Thus, when my bonuses bloomed, upon getting settled in this hedge fund job, I was able to immediately save it all. And thus, I've maintained the "loser" engineering lifestyle, because I was conditioned earlier in life, since my career didn't start on Wall St, like some other ppl who'd gone into this field from the start.

Thus, all my prior fears of losing my job to a layoff and then, being forced to sell or carry two mortgages, etc, are all gone.

CaptainShuddup says

I know find out, because I did my taxes, that in fact married people making between 62K to 96K pay more taxes than singles making the same, or married people making more. In the form of a marriage penalty.

Not completely true. If one spouse makes $96K and the other makes $0, you often pay less than two single people living in a household making $96K and 0. If both of you make $48K each, then it's possible you may be paying more in some cases, depending on income level. The marriage penalty penalizes people when both spouses earn closer to the same amount and when the household income is above a certain threshold, but if you live in perfect 1950s household, you come out ahead.

JH says

It's incredible. Last year the assessment went down by X amount (50%-ish), and the tax rate went up by Y. Amazingly, the tax bill was IDENTICAL!!! To the penny.

It's pretty standard in certain jurisdictions to do the reverse when they do a re-valuation where the value goes up significantly because it's been 7-8 years since the last re-valuation.

Call it Crazy says

More than half of homes currently listed for sale in Miami (62.4%), Los Angeles (57.2%), San Diego (55.3%), San Francisco (55.2%), Denver (52.8%), San Jose (50.9%) and Portland, Ore. (50.3%) are unaffordable by historical standards.

I just moved my mother to a place in Miami. Fortunately, she has a huge pension, about 3x the national median income, so this wasn't a problem. I looked for myself and was appalled.

Prices are absolutely unaffordable for most of the very comfortable families in the top 30%. It's $500k+ for an ancient 2 bedroom with glass everything, Bronx Baroque Style, the old NYC apartment was moved in 1971 and the walls are decorated with Psychadelic Brown Wallpaper that look like DNA Strands. With outdated facilities, no gym but a card playing room, and absolutely no pets, not even under 20 lb.

The newer apartments are somewhat cheaper, but the HOA fees make no sense, $700-900/mo, and they're still maybe 30% higher than the maximum price based on 3-5x income. I assume the HOA fees are because half the condos are empty.

There's also a massive gap between Condos that allow rentals and those that don't (or those that allow rentals only after 3 years of ownership, useless for investors). What's happening is that Grandma wants to sell, but she sees in neighboring, rentals-allowed Condos they are asking half a million, she thinks she can get the same thing for her Bronx-French Colonial Furnished apartment with the Multicolored Astrick wallpaper and 1976 Yellowish-Brown Electric Stove equipped kitchen with that bizarro faux-marble tile.

Also, Granny and/or her babyboomer almost-senior children remember 2007 prices and are insistent on holding out for that.

Yes, there are plenty of Russians and South Americans buying, but they're buying the luxury apartments to launder or hide money. They're not buying the middle-class or upper-middle class condos.

Seriously some of these places are decorated like Liberace on Acid.

One place had a huge gold-framed picture of a Rabbi, sitting between two Fake French Imperial Chairs with blue cushions and of course gold trim - and 3 of 4 walls glass, of course.

Wanting $500k for apartments that have brown and orange kitchens and need about $100k just so you can rest your eyes inside them.

corntrollio says

It's pretty standard in certain jurisdictions to do the reverse when they do a re-valuation where the value goes up significantly because it's been 7-8 years since the last re-valuation.

For sure. In this case, Cook County is so poor that they have just been raising total tax (not rates, necessarily) forever. They know how to play the game when housing is up and they know how to play it when housing is down. Now that it's down, they spike the assessments (even the re-assessments, which we have gotten by request). It's quite a stark contrast to CA where many assessments are sitting WELL below market value. Yet even new assessments (not Prop 13 controlled, essentially) in CA in comparable neighborhoods are paying less real taxes. Cook County is ass backwards.

Another anecdote. Asking $1.449 mil, sold at $1.8 mil. Closed within 15 days.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Cupertino/10587-Randy-Ln-95014/home/1331434

Well, we put in an offer for this apartment building and didn't get it. It closed in 9 days for $130k above list price. Of course, it's not possible according to Patneters.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Redwood-City/436-Clinton-St-94062/home/2021871

The money comes out of the taxes paid by us. This is such bull shit!

CaptainShuddup says

I mean a single guy can time his nightly dinner to coincide with the local bar's happy hour buffet.

Yup! :-)

Very nice statistics. Very informative.

Net Jersey is the place to be in.
Is it a co incidence that blue states take the longest to foreclose?

There isn't any cheese for Blue states,the Red states are eating most of it.

http://wallethub.com/edu/states-most-least-dependent-on-the-federal-government/2700/

Cops.one day, will shoot the wrong person & a family member will go postal. Wonder who they might go postal on?

We are in a drought. They were just protecting and serving.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

The victim's family should be able to behead the cops in public and fuck the bloody gushing stumps.

I don't believe for one moment that these cops acted alone.

Public employees, their pension funds bloated with the ill-gotten lucre that is destroying America, tricked these officers into shooting this man as a way of diverting blame from the Federal Reserve.

The lawn was yellow. It needed iron. Blood is an excellent source of iron, and the gardener was low hanging fruit.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

The victim's family should be able to behead the cops in public and fuck the bloody gushing stumps.

I think you may have made an accidental mistake - you meant to say that the cops should be able to whack the remaining family members and fornicate the blood stumps. Only then will we learn the true meaning of freedom and security.

Interesting number for San Jose. While much of the obvious foreclosure/short-sale activity has slowed, the spectre of more still seems to be out there if the banksters get off their duffs. It's likely this is part of what's depressing the first-time buyer and move-up markets too.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

A jury of 12 anarchists awarded the lawn torturer's family $6.5 million this week

1. The cops weren't prosecuted criminally for murder. Therefore, justice was not served. Nor is there any incentive for cops not to commit murder since...

2. The taxpayers flip the bill. The compensation should have been taken from the salaries and retirement plans of all cops in the guilty police department. Cops tolerate protect the criminal in their ranks. The law needs to incentive the opposite behavior by making the criminal behavior of one cop materially affect all other cops.

3. A human life is worth far more than $6.5 million.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

The victim's family should be able to behead the cops in public and fuck the bloody gushing stumps.

Agreed. Given police behavior any reasonable person would shoot a cop on sight.

Douglas Zerby was finishing up watering his lawn when neighbors, completely brainwashed by the police state, called the cops because they saw Zerby holding what they thought was a gun. It was actually a water hose nozzle.

So what if he had had a gun? Last time I checked, guns were legal. Shouldn't the pro-gun rights people be literally up in arms over this demanding murder charges against the cops and at least involuntary manslaughter charges against the neighbors who reported a false emergency and/or a false crime that led to this man's death?

If guns are legal, there is no reason why a person should not be able to possess on his own lawn. He has the right to sit with an AK47 strapped to his shoulder just watching the traffic pass by.

Not to mention, this guy was white. So it's should be ok to the gun nuts that he had a gun. I mean, if a black man had a gun, I'd expect the pro-gun crowd to side with the police, but this guy is as white as Dennis Leary.

I'm sorry that the market is built on criminal acts, manipulation and artificial inflation, but at the end if the day we have to accept that fact, move on, let prices fall naturally and be done with it.

thunderlips11 says

Also, Granny and/or her babyboomer almost-senior children remember 2007 prices and are insistent on holding out for that.

Yes, there are plenty of Russians and South Americans buying, but they're buying the luxury apartments to launder or hide money. They're not buying the middle-class or upper-middle class condos.

The Boomers holding out for the get rich quick scheme of the housing bubble is part of the problem today.

Also, unless you are a citizen you should not be able to buy here. Period.

It looks like Redfin has stopped publishing Listing Data and Sold Data metrics under Market Trends for individual cities. It was nice to have as its showed month to month and year over year trends. Thankfully, they are still publishing the charts that we all love. Conspiracy theories anyone?

EBGuy says

It looks like Redfin has stopped publishing Listing Data and Sold Data metrics under Market Trends for individual cities. It was nice to have as its showed month to month and year over year trends. Thankfully, they are still publishing the charts that we all love. Conspiracy theories anyone?

I noticed now the listing has old asking price masked too, so can't really tell the asking price history unless you cross check it on zillow.