Thread for orphaned comments

45558 cloud15 2014 Apr 23, 9:23am

To hold or to sell is the questions now

45559 cloud15 2014 Apr 23, 9:27am

I'm thinking to to cashouts/helocs from these homes and invest that money in some stock/bonds/etfs which go up when we hit recession. Haven't done that research yet. Even if take money out of these properties at 5% and I only make 3% on these investments then I would be happy to pay this 2% insurance.

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Strategist 2014 Apr 23, 9:35am

cloud15 says

I'm thinking to to cashouts/helocs from these homes and invest that money in some stock/bonds/etfs which go up when we hit recession. Haven't done that research yet. Even if take money out of these properties at 5% and I only make 3% on these investments then I would be happy to pay this 2% insurance.

Bond funds go up in recession.

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Heraclitusstudent 2014 Apr 23, 9:38am

Strategist says

Bond funds go up in recession.

Depend which recession. If you're Greece they don't.

45562

Strategist 2014 Apr 23, 9:40am

Heraclitusstudent says

Strategist says

Bond funds go up in recession.

Depend which recession. If you're Greece they don't.

Yeah, because they can't print their own money.
We can keep printing till hell freezes over.

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Heraclitusstudent 2014 Apr 23, 9:53am

cloud15 says

I'm thinking to to cashouts/helocs from these homes and invest that money in some stock/bonds/etfs which go up when we hit recession.

This is how I would see that:

When you invest you get a return about 4% 'free of risks' meaning you can capture the economic growth, and you can be reasonably certain it will happen - on average.

Then you can get better returns, but these better returns also mean more risks. Meaning you may get a better return or you could blow up.

To short the market is to bet against its natural growth of 4%. On average you lose 4%.

So if you borrow money from the bank at 4% you just give away what would be the risk free part of your return, and this leaves you with the risks. Now if you bet against the market on average you lose an additional 4%.

During this time the bank is making 4% while taking no risks at all.

The same applies to people who have a mortgage but still invest savings, instead of paying back their mortgage.

But of course it's just me.

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Heraclitusstudent 2014 Apr 23, 10:03am

Strategist says

Yeah, because they can't print their own money.

We can keep printing till hell freezes over.

I'm thinking what were treasury bond returns in 1974?
We are trained to think of recessions as deflationary. Sometime the other thing happens.

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hanera 2014 Apr 23, 10:43am

bubblesitter says

Thanks to AAPL and GOOG. :)

AAPL shot up $41, AH. Congras.

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Ceffer 2014 Apr 23, 10:58am

I want to tell them what a nice man he is and what good taste he has for choosing Dennis Rodman as his personal goodwill ambassador.

So he doesn't send his black belt assassins to kill me for not worshiping him.

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hanera 2014 Apr 23, 11:05am

Visited a few open houses in SF, Cupertino and San Jose. Prices of condo have suddenly rocketed since late Jan. For example, the condo below was sold for
10% above asking & zillow's guesstimate.

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/20517-Cedarbrook-Ter-Cupertino-CA-95014/19624933_zpid/

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Strategist 2014 Apr 23, 11:12am

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

Ceffer says

Why doesn't he just collect his toe jam and let it mold in the closet. Same exact result.

I know. Right? Because he is an ASSHOLE! of epic proportions and has a whole country to fuck around with.

Here's the North Korean consulate email address: dprkembassy@hotmail.com

What should we tell them to do with Kim the dictator for life?

He is the greatest leader the world has ever known. Just ask anyone in North Korea.

45569 cloud15 2014 Apr 23, 11:27am

Call it Crazy says

Heraclitusstudent says

The same applies to people who have a mortgage but still invest savings, instead of paying back their mortgage.

The one thing you're missing with that idea.... Equity in a house is non-liquid, you can't pull it tomorrow if you need it for an emergency. And, if your house value drops, you'll never be able to HELOC back it out.

Savings that are invested are more readily available, if needed....

That's exactly what aim saying pull the equity /cash out today into my checking account at today's inflated values . Then invest that money in something which can earrn 2-3% normally but those investments go up when we hit the recession. So in affect I would be loosing money at 1-2% on my investments but if we hit the recession in next 2 years my investments go up and then I can continue to support the houses I own at 50% of today's rents ( hedging with my own money for assuming 2 years of recession ).

Heads I win, tails I don't loose :).

Still thinking, or may be I will sell one house next year.

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Heraclitusstudent 2014 Apr 23, 11:54am

Call it Crazy says

Savings that are invested are more readily available, if needed....

Yes that's true for 1y or so of living expenses.
Having this setup, I wouldn't do an heloc to try to short the market.

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Shaman 2014 Apr 23, 11:54am

Dennis Rodman is an Obama plant tasked with learning how to make a nation love him while fucking it savagely in the ass.

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SFace 2014 Apr 23, 12:08pm

cloud15 says

That's exactly what aim saying pull the equity /cash out today into my checking
account at today's inflated values

It's a line of credit, which means you can move it around wherever you please. Just don't buy a yacht or something. One of the greatest thing we did in the last cycle was took out a 200K line of credit at prime - .75% back in 2005. That HELOC was a ridicolous 2% or so and you can see how borrowing at 2% when returns are north of 10% was a gift from the bank.

You won't get those terms now, maybe prime + 0.75%, but it is handy when you need it. How else can you borrow 200K or more at 3.5%. Just open a line and leave the credit available. When things look to top out, take that cash as the banks can't get it back if you pay the interest. If the economy tanks, prime rate tanks as well.

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JH 2014 Apr 23, 12:30pm

Everyone: please take out helocs today and invest in stocks. I will purchase your homes in 10 years at reset. I'm excited about the resets coming over the next 2-3 years. Another wave in 10 years would be nice.

45574

Strategist 2014 Apr 24, 1:51am

Call it Crazy says

HELOC Resets Could Force Lenders to Rework Loans Once Again

Once again, homeowners are beginning to see their monthly payments go up, this time because their home equity lines of credit have reached the 10-year mark and are resetting. Instead of requiring just interest payments, the second lien becomes fully amortizing and the borrower has to pay both interest and principal each month for the first time.

It is going to be painful for many borrowers who could see their monthly mortgage payments go up by $400 or more, according to Horvath, an executive vice president for Springboard Nonprofit Consumer Credit Management Inc. in Riverside, Calif.

â€œJust when you think you are climbing out of it, and then you got these adjustments,â€ he says.

He is not taking into account that many homeowners could just get another HELOC. With rising home values it should be easier.

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New Renter 2014 Apr 24, 1:54am

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

Houses are too cheap. No one can have any respect for a shack that can't command a few million dollars in valuation.

For a modest fee I can value any property of your choosing at whatever you feel your property is worth.

Of course my fee is a small percentage of that valuation... Gotta provide the proper inventive to get the numbers right after all.

45576 dublin hillz 2014 Apr 24, 2:18am

There's definitely tangible and specific effect from the fed - the federal funds rate has been stuck at 0.25% for over 5 years now. That rate directly affects the interest rates that banks pay on savings accounts and also CDs. Since savings/CDS are considered risk free investments, it affects the valuation of other asset classes and makes riskier investments more attractive than they would have been otherwise. For example, T dividend yield is currently 5.27% which appears to be attractive when savings accts are paying 0.1%. However, if savings accts were to pay 3.75%, that 5.27% yield from T don't look as good anymore so prices for T shares would have to fall for dividend yield to rise and maintain the spread vs risk free vehicle.

45577 clambo 2014 Apr 24, 5:51am

Slightly off the subject...

Do you remember those ads on cable TV that were incessant for Ditech?
"Release the equity in your home. Take a vacation, pay off credit cards, buy a boat!" etc?

I have not seen any of those ads in years. Why not I sometimes wonder.....?

Actually, I don't wonder but I like the phrase.

One reason people aren't going to be selling/moving is that they're among the 50% Alt-A/Sub prime people (losers) who can't qualify for another mortgage probably, and they're probably also underwater, or treading water with the water up to their nostrils. I don't really know but it's a thought.

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JH 2014 Apr 24, 5:55am

clambo says

One reason people aren't going to be selling/moving is that they're among the 50% Alt-A/Sub prime people (losers) who can't qualify for another mortgage probably, and they're probably also underwater, or treading water with the water up to their nostrils.

There are two additional problems:
1. Housing is expensive again. So why sell? To move up? Leads us to...
2. Typically move-up buyers have equity. Even though one's house is no longer underwater, there is likely not enough equity to make a significant downpayment.

45579 anonymous 2014 Apr 24, 6:05am

So if the fed is only there to help the poor, by making operating costs cheaper, by lowering interest rates from 1.1% down to 1.0%, the govt only exists to screw the poor by making operating costs higher via taxes.

Welcome to bizarro world

45580 EBGuy 2014 Apr 24, 7:32am

clambo said: Do you remember those ads on cable TV that were incessant for Ditech?
"Release the equity in your home. Take a vacation, pay off credit cards, buy a boat!" etc?
Have you seen the ads Wells Fargo has been running lately (I think they debuted on YouTube in the last week or two). From what I can tell, they are encouraging people to take out loans to "pursue their dreams" which includes:
1. A music career
2. A motorcycle purchase
3. A kitchen remodel
Here we go again.

45581

HydroCabron 2014 Apr 24, 8:46am

Every time one of these Conservatarians says something like this, or, like much of Ron Paul's old team or Zimmermann's fan club president, turns out to be a white supremacist, it's pure coincidence.

The Democrats are the real racists.

45582 EBGuy 2014 Apr 24, 8:52am

I cribbed this from a posting by anon2 on Socketsite. Looks like IPO unprofitability is approaching levels not seen since the heady days of the dot com bubble (1999-2000). Check it out at http://bear.warrington.ufl.edu/ritter/IPOs2013Statistics.pdf (see page 12). Profitable IPOs in 2014 so far is 13% of all offerings.

45583 dublin hillz 2014 Apr 24, 9:27am

His comments were probably taken out of context, he was probably referring to those slavs in eastern europe, aka russians and ukranians, the ultimate wiggas.

45584

HydroCabron 2014 Apr 24, 9:39am

I'm totally against airstrikes - yes, drones too - on Bundy and his minions. But that would be an appropriate and proportional response to insurrection.

But this needs to be dealt with the same way George Washington dealt with the Whiskey Rebellion, which is military force.

By the way: How do all those "patriots" sit out there and pose with their weapons all day? Don't those people have jobs?

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HydroCabron 2014 Apr 24, 9:42am

I had to run down to the DMV.

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HydroCabron 2014 Apr 24, 9:49am

I would also add that I am opposed to torturing Bundy, as is often done to traitors. And I do not countenance the use of artillery or heavy armor against his compound.

The use of an A-10 Warthog, firing delightful bursts ("BRAAAAAP!") of its 30mm Gatling gun at the Ranch buildings, would also not be appropriate, I think. And execution by hanging for treason would be premature at this point.

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Bigsby 2014 Apr 24, 10:55am

Hmmm, I wonder who forgot to take their medicine today.

And what has this got to do with the constant crap you post about Sandy Hook, Boston, 9/11....?

Oh, and whilst you are at it, feel free to post up the links to where I have supported zionism. I'll be waiting.

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smaulgld 2014 Apr 24, 11:03am

A few minutes researching the racism of democratic and republican politicians will pull scores of horrific examples

try Democrat Lyndon Johnson's rationale for the Civil Rights act "â€œIâ€™ll have those XXX voting Democratic for the next 200 years.â€

or some of Republican Abe Lincoln's views on African Americans "repatriation to Africa!"

Google comments by Democrat Woodrow Wilson (re-segregated Federal workers) and Republican Richard Nixon on Italian Americans (they smell different) or Democratic Speaker of the House and Former Klansman! Robert Byrd

Politicians are nasty people and its misguided to think either party does not have a slew of racists among their ranks.

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