patrick.net

all bubbles crash eventually, Canada is in a MASSIVE real estate bubble and the longer it goes on the harder it will crash. Bubbles can go on for years without crashing so your data is virtually pointless. When the bubble will crash is something that is impossible to predict...it could be next week, it could be 4 years from now. As I said the longer it goes on the worse the outcome when it eventually crashes.

deepcgi says:
"All bogus, manipulated, speculation-driven, fiat disaster."
Let's keep this between you & me.

It is nice that Canadians can continuously overpay for housing.

I just renewed my lease here in Austin. Paying 1550 per month for 2600 nice (but slightly strange) square feet. :-).

RR is one of the best public school districts in the country. Elementary school is across the street. The crossing guard for the kids stands at the end of my driveway - although the girls have to walk across the playground to get to the entrance. Oh well.

The interesting thing though is that a nearly identical home only one lot away went up for rent for 2200 several weeks ago. There's been a big jump for a lot of people. It's why the current family is moving out.

Why did MY landlord not hit me with a huge jump in rent? Why are they allowing a bail-out of lease clause in the event of employment troubles? Because the real world isn't always as the numbers would lead you to believe. Imagine renting out a home for 4 years and the carpets are still spotless to the point where they wouldn't need a cleaning if you needed to rent it tomorrow. Imagine tenants who spot maintenance problems like pros, do all of the homework on repairs, pay rent early and keep the yard looking better than the neighbors who own.

Rare to impossible? Nope. You're just charging too much. Give a good deal to the most qualified.

Now if my current LL had played hardball and raised my rent 700 f-ing dollars a month, I would have been happy to let him know that i've always had enough cash to buy a home in this neighborhood outright, and would be happy to pass the place along to the Manson family who just answered his Craigslisting.

Reminds me that I've always liked the song Helter Skelter. Paul McCartney inventing Heavy Metal. How cool is that? Might be a good anthem for the new Bastille Day.

monkframe says

Jeez, I'm sure glad the upper classes have so many arguments.

Not sure how you classify the upper classes. Is it the top 1%, 5%, 10% or 20%? A lot of Bay Area families fit the top 10% and easily fit the top 20%, but that doesn't mean a whole lot around here with those 6-figure household income.

E-man says

We got a good deal. If we put it on the market now, PK believes we can sell it for $575k.

corntrollio says

That price seems very low for $2800/mo in rent.

Sorry, I missed your response earlier. I agree. I thought it was high too, but PK hasn't been wrong before with his numbers. He's extremely good at what he does, and he knows how much people are willing to pay.

The 1st place we bought for $117k at the courthouse steps, put $15k into renovation and rented for $1,550/month to a software AAPL engineer. I thought the max we could rent it for was $1,350/month while PK said it was $1,700/month. Since this was our 1st unit together, we met in the middle and listed it for $1,550. We had 29 inquiries on the 1st open house. Lesson learned. PK was right. I let him handle all the numbers after that. This was in early 2012.

We bought the 2nd place for $155k, spent $18k on rehab and rented for $1,750 to an IT manager at PWC.

3rd place bought for $150k, spent $2k on rehab and rented to a government employee at $1,650/mo.

4th place bought for $210k, spent $15k in rehab and rented for $1,950/month to a nurse at Samaritan Hospital. This place is identical to the 2nd property, but we bought it 10 months later. Apparently, prices have gone up a lot. The same units in the complex are selling for $325k now.

5th place bought for $265k, spent $4k in renovation and rented for $2,200/month to a Stanford employee.

6th place bought for $315k, spent $35k in rehab and rented it for $2,800/month to a gymnastic coach.

All properties were acquired over 1.5 years. If I had more partners, I would have been able to acquire even properties. There were deals that PK and I had to pass due to money constraint at the time. Now, there are hardly any deals to be had.

deepcgi says

One of the reasons the crash is so apparently coming is that even the dovish Fed hold-outs are are now warning of the dangers of stopping the tapering of QE. 9 figure per day sums have been propping up your favorite. "markets" for years and years.

Explain to us one more time which fundamentals are going to replace the 85 Billion dollar per month goose, as it is slowly reduced to nothing but a fowl dinner for two.

We already had the crash, and now it's over. We are in a slowdown, but still a recovery mode. The Feds pumping more money into the economy bodes well for real estate. Either as a recovery, or inflation.
Why do you even feel real estate cannot sustain itself without the $85 billion? Did they have fed intervention for the last 50 years? Real estate did pretty well, right? People need houses to live in, and with a rising population, we need more houses.
Housing is a necessity, don't underestimate it's value.

Bellingham Bill says

Land value comes from more than the natural amenity of location or just its natural productivity (ag or mineral), it is largely driven by what commercial, governmental, and cultural amenities are accessible in the local community.

Thats the reason Natural Gas enriched land far far from large cities which was cheaper had better value regardless of any amenities. It has made Billionaires out of low income familes. Old Jed Clampet is a rich ole right...

Bellingham Bill says

Germany is an exception I guess, maybe France too.

Japan is still hella expensive, 20+ years into their crash, with very marginal (for Tokyo) subdivision land with minimal utility service going for $1M an acre.

Both had their bubble...and wont repeat the mistake... as far as Japan, the high cost has driven job losses moving jobs overseas. Too expensive to design and manufacture in Japan/ You wont see "Made in Japan" anymore.

Is we learning yet?

might one day... when we find realtors spiking prices....

Ontario moves to protect consumer in real estate deals

http://www.thestar.com/business/real_estate/2013/04/18/consumer_minister_moves_to_protect_consumer_in_real_estate_deals.html

Ontario’s consumer services minister is moving to outlaw “phantom offers” and boost home sellers’ ability to negotiate a la carte payments for services rendered by realtors.

The proposed legislation, which realtors say is really just a repeat of protections that already exist in Real Estate Council of Ontario (RECO) regulations, would also step up prohibitions against so-called “phantom bids.”
All offers on a property would have to be presented in writing, rather than just verbally, so that bidders and their agents would have hard proof of the real competition they face for a property. The listing agent would be required to keep a record of each offer in case there are complaints later from losing bidders.

Some realtors have called for greater transparency in the bidding process, one citing a case last year where her clients bid $90,000 over the asking pricebid $90,000 over the asking price on a nearly million dollar home, under the impression there were other bids. When their agent found out later they were alone, the sellers agreed to accept $45,000 instead.

Strategist says

where the fuck were you?

Working on a very very long Merger and Integration project at work.
Its done now! Thank god ! Im not the young guy I was once...

thomaswong.1986 says

Strategist says

where the fuck were you?

Working on a very very long Merger and Integration project at work.

Its done now! Thank god ! Im not the young guy I was once...

LOL. You know how your comments can be interpreted?
I was working on having sex with the secretary, but the damn viagra took a long time to work, and "Its done now! Thank god ! Im not the young guy I was once..."

Strategist says

LOL. You know how your comments can be interpreted?

I was working on having sex with the secretary,

LOL! ah.. if only!

thomaswong.1986 says

Too expensive to design and manufacture in Japan/ You wont see "Made in Japan" anymore

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/XTEXVA01JPM664S

or in real dollars:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=AoB

Bellingham Bill says

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/XTEXVA01JPM664S

The downfall of "Made in Japan". Welcome to the global supply chain.
Not even your former employer can claim.. "Made In Cupertino"...

Bellingham Bill says

or in real dollars:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=AoB

in any graph, there is no clearity to source and final assembly...
its all global, not country of incorporation.

thomaswong.1986 says

Not even your former employer can claim.. "Made In Cupertino"

Never was, even the Fremont factories were glorified final assemblies, all the parts were really made in SE Asia and Japan.

But it is true that Japanese labor can't compete all that well with Chinese, since Chinese still do a day of factory work for an hour of Japan's factory wage.

Twenty-one-year-old Bai Yaojie, a Foxconn worker, says he isn’t impressed. “Sure, wages are higher here than in my hometown, but I have friends and family back there,” says Bai, a native of Gansu province who earns more than 2,000 yuan a month.

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-05-01/chinas-young-male-factory-workers-change-the-assembly-line

100 yuan a day = 1600 yen / hr, about the factory hourly wage in Japan if you count their non-permanent labor force.

Back when the yen was 300 to the dollar, the Japanese were working for peanuts like the Chinese are now.

thomaswong.1986 says

there is no clearity to source and final assembly...

certainly; one would have a very hard time finding imported goods in Akihabara in the 1990s when I was there.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/XTIMVA01JPQ188S

imports quadrupling in 20 years.

Call it Crazy says

KCAL9’s Bobby Kaple reports that Sen. Mark DeSaulnier, D-Concord, introduced a bill to test out the vehicle miles traveled (VMT) tax because the state’s gas tax was no longer bringing in the revenue it used to due to people driving more fuel efficient vehicles.

Everyone wants to live here. No one wants to live or move anywhere else.

Every wonder why so many have left already ???

Miike says

We already pay for roads with the hundreds of other taxes we pay.

No you didnt... your paying for the State Employees salary and retire and the other extreme ... paying for illegal aliens ( aka Foreign Citizens).Perhaps we should sent the bill to Mexico and have them pay for their citizens.

Bellingham Bill says

Never was, even the Fremont factories were glorified final assemblies, all the parts were really made in SE Asia and Japan.

After 1985. Make no doubt about much of the mfg be it hard drives or motherboards to chips were made in the Santa Clara in the 80s and later in Colorado in the 90s. I know, I audited them back then when I worked at Arthur Young.

Bellingham Bill says

But it is true that Japanese labor can't compete all that well with Chinese, since Chinese still do a day of factory work for an hour of Japan's factory wage.

Maybe or maybe not. China is doing what Japan did as many thought the Japanese had lower wages. But in reality it was selling and dumping products below costs just to drive the competition out of business. China is big in dumping below its own cost to mfg. Why do it if your costs are already lower ? or are they !!!

Sometimes the yield is so bad... it costs more. Cost Absorption on spoilage. Will be fun as the Accounting Scandals surface from Chinese
companies in the not to distant future.

Keep tapping your heels together and saying "It's not the Fed. It's not the Fed. It's not the Fed." Eventually, you'll find yourself in Kansas. Yep, fly-over country. Sorry about that part.

Bellingham Bill says

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_taxes_in_Canada#International_comparison_.28personal_income_tax.29

claims Canadians pay 20-30% in tax, compared to 12-30% in the US (married couples with kids and a mortgage do have very low taxes here in the US).

Wiki doesn't i(and really can't) include state income taxes even almost all states have them. Or the fact schools, fire, and police in Canada are included in the 20-30% instead of paid out of property taxes. Or health care is paid out of the 20-30%. Paying the average 18-22,000 (depending on your news source) a year in health insurance for a family of 4 knocks the shit out of your tax savings in the US for the average wage of 44k. Or universities are subsidized and much cheaper. It's not a direct comparison.

What's happening in Canada is that their market is sort of like the California and New York markets: There is a lot of it being propped up by foreign investment. Basically there is no such thing as a never-ending bubble and some level of a rational market will ultimately prevail.

Bellingham Bill says

Never was, even the Fremont factories were glorified final assemblies, all the parts were really made in SE Asia and Japan.

Ironically some of the "most American" cars ands trucks are Japanese brands. The Avalon, Camry, Accord, Tundra are all vehicles with as high as 75-80% domestically produced content. My Tacoma truck which was made in Fremont is about 60% domestically produced content.

So, are you saying that USA market will go bust in 2017 but Canadian market will never crash? No prediction for Canadian market crash?

Who gave George and the original citizen's militia the right to take you good loyalists citizenship away from the King (Queen) ??? Yet, you.....as well as we.....call him, in all reverence, the "Father of our Country".

If grown me with guns stopping cars scare you......don't go out on the highway. They're out there everyday.....scared little boys, picked on in school, now trying to get even.......and make a name for themselves for career advancement. The more of you they either put away or kill........the higher their rank, the higher their pay.

Personally, I prefer a cattleman or ordinary people to be armed. Their income isn't normally a motivating factor like it is with over zealous little boy cops. And before you reply.....admit you rarely get out of the house (apartment) beyond your very small comfort zone. Me..........47 states so far. Color be damned. It's the uniforms that scare hell outta me. Let them give up their guns.....if you contend I don't need mine. I may need mine. The new "George" might just call on a few good citizens.........to emulate the originals. It's high time we take the Neanderthal blood sacrificers out of our government and their leeching, greedy hands out of our national treasury.

Then Neanderthal's demise need be final.

bob2356 says

People overseas I've talked to about it think American suburban sprawl is
horrifying and can't believe we allow it.

Suburbia is unavoidable in united states. For example in SFBA, do u really believe that we can fit everyone either in S.F or san jose? It will be a nightmare, as congested as Panama City, Panama.

bob2356 says

The land value is because Australia and Canada and others have chosen to not embrace American style endless suburban sprawl.

It's not about what type of housing. It's about not building enough to meet the demand. If the supply was as large as the demand, prices *couldn't* go up more than inflation.
If you want to stop sprawl, you have to find a way to build enough apartments in cities. Clearly this is not happening.

bob2356 says

There's nothing evil, it's a societal choice that they are willing to pay for. The extra cost in housing is heavily offset by not having to extend expensive services, (water, sewer, electric, trash, roads, police, etc., etc.) endlessly.

It is evil, as unaffordable housing forces 30 yrs old people to live with their parents, forces young couple with kids in 1 brd apartments, etc...
This is hugely detrimental to quality of life.

And all this for what?
This is not about sprawl.
And any economic gains are short term.

Miike says

sounds like california..

Its the Beatles.

Call it Crazy says

FortWayne says

And they want more taxes? Over my dead body!

They might tax that too....

Don't give them any more ideas!!!

Heraclitusstudent says

It's not about what type of housing. It's about not building enough to meet the demand. If the supply was as large as the demand, prices *couldn't* go up more than inflation.

If you want to stop sprawl, you have to find a way to build enough apartments in cities. Clearly this is not happening

Developers build what will sell. If that is high end condos instead of low end apartments then that's the price of living in a free market. Are you advocating having government decide what housing will be built and where? That didn't work out very well in eastern europe and russia at all.

There are lots of cities with tons of apartments, I lived in Oklahoma City which has always had one of the lowest apartment occupancy rates in the country and it sprawls forever. Memphis, Vegas, Orlando also have tons of empty apartments and tons of urban sprawl. Obviously supply meets demand or there wouldn't be lots of empty apartments. Yet sprawl goes on and prices go up. Explain these contradictions.

Heraclitusstudent says

And all this for what?

This is not about sprawl.

I give up. If urban boundries aren't about sprawl what are they about? Your post, so what's the answer? I await with baited breath.

You have to pay for things. A lot of you seem to think that you're under the weight of a massive tax burden when in actuality tax as a % of GDP is close to the lowest of any OECD country. Perhaps you shouldn't be so averse to those who can afford it (including corporations) paying a bit more. Would it be so bad if that then resulted in better roads, schools, healthcare...?

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

Dan8267 says

The bottom line is that the Second Amendment isn't in effect today or you could have nukes, biological/chemical weapons, land mines, RPGs, and tanks.

And fighter bombers. No American is safe from tyranny without one.

Correct, as well as ANY armament.

bob2356 says

Developers build what will sell. If that is high end condos instead of low end apartments then that's the price of living in a free market. Are you advocating having government decide what housing will be built and where? That didn't work out very well in eastern europe and russia at all.

There are lots of cities with tons of apartments, I lived in Oklahoma City which has always had one of the lowest apartment occupancy rates in the country and it sprawls forever. Memphis, Vegas, Orlando also have tons of empty apartments and tons of urban sprawl. Obviously supply meets demand or there wouldn't be lots of empty apartments. Yet sprawl goes on and prices go up.

First are we talking of Canada? Memphis is one thing, but do we suffer from high prices in Memphis? I doubt it. If every place was like Memphis, we wouldn't talk about high prices.

Then if we have plenty of supply, why are prices super high, by historical standards, in cities like Toronto, or SF in the US. Answer: we have for sale very limited inventory, i.e. very limited supply. Builders build only limited supply in spite of super-high prices.

Further, I don't know Canadian suburbs, but go to San Ramon/Danville, a suburb where there is space to build, and prices are still super-high. And rent prices are high too. But builders are not building massively there either, is spite of space and high prices.

So my point is clear: this is not about sprawl or not, apartments or mansions. On aggregate, they just aren't building enough.

And since presumably builders would build provided they make a profit, which they should considering prices, it's not explained only by the reluctance from builders. Authorities are controlling this.

Heraclitusstudent says

Further, I don't know Canadian suburbs, but go to San Ramon/Danville, a suburb where there is space to build, and prices are still super-high. And rent prices are high too. But builders are not building massively there either, is spite of space and high prices.

So my point is clear: this is not about sprawl or not, apartments or mansions. On aggregate, they just aren't building enough.

And since presumably builders would build provided they make a profit, which they should considering prices, it's not explained only by the reluctance from builders. Authorities are controlling this.

There is too much NIMBYism and too many reluctant planning departments all over the Bay Area that don't allow more building. There is plenty of land here, but you can't build on most of it. In the San Ramon/Danville area, there is tons of space, but the NIMBYs complain about increased traffic every time someone wants to build 40 housing units -- I got mine, you can't have yours.

WOW! The UNtrustworthy are certainly in control of what information is apparent to the people!

Say hey! This was in the Wall Street Journal on March 30, 1999. Note "... how much it will buy."

Holy cow/interesting/compelling ...!

And where is it up to date??? Right here ... see the first chart shown in this thread.
Recent Dow day is Monday, May 12, 2014 __ Level is 105.5

WOW! It is hideous that this is hidden! Is there any such "Homes, Inflation Adjusted"? Yes! This was in the New York Times on August 27, 2006:

And up to date (by me) is here:
http://patrick.net/?p=1219038&c=999083#comment-999083

WOW! The UNtrustworthy are certainly in control of what information is apparent to the people!

And "ThePublic Be Suckered"
http://patrick.net/?p=1230886

gsr says

But Japan did not have such a quick rebound in real-estate prices.

ain't that the truth.

I was expecting that pattern for the US, too, but forgot that we're different here.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=Avt

demographic difference

we were a lot more committed to our housing bubble, too. Japan's was vexatious, in that they weren't able to pull trillions OUT of bubble valuations like we did, and want to do again, nor were the Japanese able to just 'walk away' / 'jingle mail' or that HAMP principal modification BULLSHIT that we did in our aftermath.

If anything they have an oversupply of housing now, and with falling population and general deflation in everything, rents have no way to go up over there apparently.

Story is different here!

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CUUR0000SEHA

bend over America, you're going to get it good and hard from The Man this decade and next.

Dan8267 says

It means precisely that the people must have access to all weapons the government has. This made sense in the 18th century, but doesn't in the 21st.

The best soilders in WW1, WW2, Korea and Vietnam to today were those who were crack marksmen... Sg York comes to mind for one!

So I say good practice makes a good soilder...

fast forward today...

no matter.. no need to practice on a real $mega million F16 Falcon,
when you can do the same on a Computer Simulator anyway...

so the answer to your question is its already happened !

corntrollio says

There is too much NIMBYism and too many reluctant planning departments all over the Bay Area that don't allow more building.

I suggest you drive across much of Milpitas, Fremont and No San Jose...

Lots of new development going up... no end in sight!

If that gets filled than there is much more land in So. San Jose...

As far as SF prime... Think Santa Rosa doesnt have land.. think again !

AverageBear says

I wish Obama was as zealous in protecting our southern boarder, as Harry Reid's zealousness for running ranchers off of federal land (for the sweet-heart deal to sell the land to the Chinese for a solar farm; the deal being brokered by Harry Reid's son)..

Bundy is selling his land to chinese in a deal brokered by Reid's son? When did that come up?