patrick.net

When are robots going to replace consumers? The human ones we have now are very ineffective at spending money and buying houses.

mmmarvel says

Strategist says

I know what multi variable regression and calculus is, because I did the shit. Like you said, not once, ever, did I have a need for it.

But wasn't it cool to learn/finally know that you actually COULD divide by zero?

I never learnt that part. Must have been sleeping in math class as usual.

Rin says

monkframe says

But I don't see people addressing the basic problem: What happens to all the humans who can't get a job because technology has automated and/or replaced it?

What you don't seem to understand is that the heads of corporations, don't care about these cultural and macroeconomic issues. Their concern is their bottomline and their golden parachutes.

There seems to be this nonsensical notion that corporate execs care about maintaining a particular number of employees. Sorry, but that's just not the case.

What's going to happen in reality, is that the dystopia will kick in, before the politicians decide to go for the long term welfare state.

Oh, I understand that very well, it's just their insanity and stupidity as they megaphone it to the rest of us that I was noting.

Jaron Lanier has interesting things to say about this subject of automated jobs replacing the masses in employment. He even has a proposal that seems very reasonable: That we be paid in micropayments for all the data being collected (stolen) on us every day we live.

New Renter says

Yet despite all this talk of automation replacing human workers you can still walk into just about any pharmacy in America and have your prescription filled by a human staff. The technology to replace these workers already exists, the human workers command high salaries, the need for 24/7/365 mistake free, high security performance high, yet still there are very few robot pharmacists out there.

WTF?

The large mail order pharmacies probably work this way. your neighborhood pharmacy can't be setup to to huge volume like that

CMY says

The future of business will eventually eliminate production jobs, all the way down to stocking shelves.

Where one should be focused over the next twenty years:

-Engineering

-Marketing / Design

-Legal

-Plumbing / Electrical

-Care / services / therapy

-Research

Forget middle management and working your way up the Peter Principal org chart. If you are not skilled in one of the above it'll be a very bumpy ride.

Wrong wrong wrong!

Young peole need to focus on what society actually values, not what it pays lip service to. This of course is to be attractive, preferably an uberhottie. This is the bare minimum needed for the REALLY lucrative professions:

Golddigging (there is no faster path to wealth than marrying rich!)
Celebrity
Sales

Don't let the dissapointment of what you were born with set you back, modern cosmetic dentistry and surgery can work miracles.

zzyzzx says

New Renter says

Yet despite all this talk of automation replacing human workers you can still walk into just about any pharmacy in America and have your prescription filled by a human staff. The technology to replace these workers already exists, the human workers command high salaries, the need for 24/7/365 mistake free, high security performance high, yet still there are very few robot pharmacists out there.

WTF?

The large mail order pharmacies probably work this way. your neighborhood pharmacy can't be setup to to huge volume like that

Why not? A robot pharmacy would likely have a breakeven point measured in at most couple years at most over a human run one. Probably less.

New Renter says

Sales

That's exactly where I'm at today.

When I'd started in this hedge fund work, I was in the quant/IT support side for our prop trading algos, developing point-in-time risk analysis tracking with taxable audit trails. You might say that that was a "real" job in a BS sort of way, as it's far removed from industrial R&D.

Then, as funds flowed in and auditing protocols were finalized, I was spending more and more time, yakking with clients, to help sustain and grow the business.

Today, that's nearly 100% of the my job.

So yeah, Sales! Sales! Sales! I'm not the Wolf but perhaps, a Bobcat of Wall Street :-)

Strategist says

mmmarvel says

Strategist says

I know what multi variable regression and calculus is, because I did the shit. Like you said, not once, ever, did I have a need for it.

But wasn't it cool to learn/finally know that you actually COULD divide by zero?

I never learnt that part. Must have been sleeping in math class as usual.

No point is staying awake for those university classes as that theoretical convergence of the denominator towards zero, is based upon continuous function where dx - > 0 and then, you have an analytical solution for a derivative.

Real world data is discretized, in the 1/2, 1, 5, 15 min demarcations and thus, the denominator has to convergence upon a low noise threshold, for the result to be applicable, otherwise, it's just a random blip.

And that's all I can say, the rest is all voodoo.

mmmarvel says

But wasn't it cool to learn/finally know that you actually COULD divide by zero?

Is that what you learned ? You're wrong. It's also still true that multiplying by zero always gives you zero. This is why dividing something other than zero by zero is absurd. (but 0/0 is undefined too - possibly only by human agreement since anything close to zero divided by itself is 1).

I'm guessing you made some strange inference about a false deeper meaning of a removable discontinuity or something along those lines.

Rin says

New Renter says

Sales

That's exactly where I'm at today.

When I'd started in this hedge fund work, I was in the quant/IT support side for our prop trading algos, developing point-in-time risk analysis tracking with taxable audit trails. You might say that that was a "real" job in a BS sort of way, as it's far removed from industrial R&D.

Then, as funds flowed in and auditing protocols were finalized, I was spending more and more time, yakking with clients, to help sustain and grow the business.

Today, that's nearly 100% of the my job.

So yeah, Sales! Sales! Sales! I'm not the Wolf but perhaps, a Bobcat of Wall Street :-)

There you go - working in "hedge fund work" will completely remove any sense of reality. You won't even have to drink.

Rin says

I never learnt that part. Must have been sleeping in math class as usual.

No point is staying awake for those university classes as that theoretical convergence of the denominator towards zero, is based upon continuous function where dx - > 0 and then, you have an analytical solution for a derivative.

Real world data is discretized, in the 1/2, 1, 5, 15 min demarcations and thus, the denominator has to convergence upon a low noise threshold, for the result to be applicable, otherwise, it's just a random blip.

And that's all I can say, the rest is all voodoo.

You are worse then my professor. Have mercy, please.

monkframe says

There you go - working in "hedge fund work" will completely remove any sense of reality. You won't even have to drink.

"For the love of Money! Money! Money! And the fever getting higher

Desire, desire, desire, desire"

-Bono U2

http://www.marshallbrain.com/robotic-nation.htm

mmmarvel says

Strategist says

Most people cannot even add.

Sure they can ... just let me get my calculator out here. Wait, the calculator has been replaced by this app on my phone so ... what was the question? Oh yeah, so now I have the app loaded up, what math problem did you have again?

It's harder to use the apps then to add. Most people can't read either.

Rin says

http://www.marshallbrain.com/robotic-nation.htm

Seattle will be the first to have a massive robot invasion. They are doomed.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101714388

Strategist says

Rin says

http://www.marshallbrain.com/robotic-nation.htm

Seattle will be the first to have a massive robot invasion. They are doomed.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101714388

California is next.
Move over MMMARVEL, I'm coming to Texas.

Strategist says

Seattle will be the first to have a massive robot invasion. They are doomed.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101714388

Psyche'd, as minimum wage laws are enacted, the rise of robots will accelerate. Soon, they'll be no more jobs and we'll have every man, woman, and child on welfare.

Rin says

Strategist says

Seattle will be the first to have a massive robot invasion. They are doomed.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101714388

Psyche'd, as minimum wage laws are enacted, the rise of robots will accelerate. Soon, they'll be no more jobs and we'll have every man, woman, and child on welfare.

The teenagers will have a different minimum wage. I was more concerned about that. The school drop out rate is too high, and teenagers getting a job is too difficult. We don't need the crime.

Strategist says

The teenagers will have a different minimum wage. I was more concerned about that. The school drop out rate is too high, and teenagers getting a job is too difficult. We don't need the crime.

I think we're doomed, as a society. There's lots of unemployment in the 16 to 25 year old age bracket. Thus, gangs will grow and there will a lot of petty crime, as time goes by.

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Rin says

So yeah, Sales! Sales! Sales! I'm not the Wolf but perhaps, a Bobcat of Wall Street :-)

Remember the Turing Test?

Strategist says

Rin says

Rin says

Again it's a 10 to 1 compression ratio of former human jobs to future human jobs.

Is no one worried? Or has everyone accepted my prognostication?

The compression ratio in agriculture has been 40:1, from 80% of the population to 2%. The result was new industries, like movies and professional sports; i.e. leisure industries.

Nope, no worries.

By the time it happens, I will be with Pamela Anderson, Britney Spears and Madonna.

Exactly! New jobs for fine-tuning conversation skills of robots that mimic the bimbo bombshells. Wouldn't you want to have a personal hottie that looks just like PA, BS or M, yet can blow you like a fat chick, and pass the Turing Test? BTW, did the originals ever pass the Turing Test?

Reality says

The compression ratio in agriculture has been 40:1, from 80% of the population to 2%. The result was new industries, like movies and professional sports; i.e. leisure industries.

The next wave is no more human labor. Everyone will be living in a VR simulation and be b*ning models, like Raquel Welch & Sophia Lorens, living in their fantasies.

Rin says

The next wave is no more human labor. Everyone will be living in a VR simulation and be b*ning models, like Raquel Welch & Sophia Lorens, living in their fantasies.

What makes you think we are not already in one? What makes you think you are so lucky as to be born exactly to experience the change-over? What if the real change over already took place long long time ago, and everything you know is mere simulation? and why? Did something go wrong?

Reality says

Rin says

The next wave is no more human labor. Everyone will be living in a VR simulation and be b*ning models, like Raquel Welch & Sophia Lorens, living in their fantasies.

What makes you think we are not already in one? What makes you think you are so lucky as to be born exactly to experience the change-over? What if the real change over already took place long long time ago, and everything you know is mere simulation? and why? Did something go wrong?

Very simple, as I lay back on my coach, I should be feeling Raquel's b**bs, smothering my face. Well, it doesn't seem to be happening quite so automatically.

So, until that happens, I know that I'm living in the precursor era, before all of us, get what we want in a VR matrix.

Reality says

Rin says

The next wave is no more human labor. Everyone will be living in a VR simulation and be b*ning models, like Raquel Welch & Sophia Lorens, living in their fantasies.

What makes you think we are not already in one? What makes you think you are so lucky as to be born exactly to experience the change-over? What if the real change over already took place long long time ago, and everything you know is mere simulation? and why? Did something go wrong?

Interesting, calling this phenomenon " compression ratio"
The compression ratio is dynamic and tends towards a limit of zero.
All industries and all occupations would have the same limit - zero.

Reality says

Remember the Turing Test?

Why do we need a Turing test? If something, which looks like let's say Marilyn Monroe, goes up to me and says, "I want, your c*ck, inside me", she'd flunk the Turing test, as it's clear that no such phenomena would ever occur with a real human, however, it would definitely pass my test :-)!

Rin says

Reality says

Remember the Turing Test?

Why do we need a Turing test? If something, which looks like let's say Marilyn Monroe, goes up to me and says, "I want, your c*ck, inside me", she'd flunk the Turing test, as it's clear that no such phenomena would ever occur with a real human, however, it would definitely pass my test :-)!

Dude, it's clear you wanna hump something with circuits. Just build yourself a love robot and be done with it!

Strategist says

Seattle will be the first to have a massive robot invasion. They are doomed.

Strategist says

Move over MMMARVEL, I'm coming to Texas.

Sorry, no room. However, Illinois or Michigan look like they might have room (or houses) to spare. Sorry, borders here are closed.

Rin says

The next wave is no more human labor. Everyone will be living in a VR
simulation and be b*ning models, like Raquel Welch & Sophia Lorens, living
in their fantasies.

And somehow, deep down, I get flashbacks of how humans were portraited in the movie Wall-E. Sitting in comfie chairs, sipping on big gulps, watching everything via virtual; meanwhile they are fat as pigs and pretty much unable to accomplish even menial tasks that require any kind of physical effort.

Strategist says

All industries and all occupations would have the same limit - zero.

Which you can then divide by. And you thought calculus was a waste of time.

mmmarvel says

Strategist says

Move over MMMARVEL, I'm coming to Texas.

Sorry, no room. However, Illinois or Michigan look like they might have room (or houses) to spare. Sorry, borders here are closed.

Never stopped the Mexicans.
Maybe the "border closed" sign should be in Spanish.

Grocery stores tried these kiosks. They work pretty well except that every 10 minutes or so, an idiot comes by and shows the system isn't, er, idiot-proof. The idiot doesn't know how to use a bar code, or won't click on the screen after they use their credit card, etc. So many stores yanked them out and went back to old fashioned checkout clerks.

Then there's the cost of maintaining the machines and keeping them up to date. As the IT sector discovered, those guys cost money. So they sought to import a million from India. And then we get healthcare.gov or as it's also known as: Error 404.

There's ALWAYS a need for labor. Don't let anyone fool you. The problem is that the oligarchs want CHEAP but also SKILLED labor (or at least labor that pretends to be skilled.) Democrats need new voters as working and middle class whites flee the genocidal policies of the left.

PolishKnight says

There's ALWAYS a need for labor.

That's cause software is still in the prior paradigm of the 80s/90s. Understand this, many Fortune 1000 firms still use Oracle Forms, the biggest joke for a front end GUI, where the default validation is still the tab function. So wherever you go, you'll find that an entire form is rejected, if ppl don't tab around between their entries. The lazy developers seldom change Oracle's default behavior. This is basically the world of the old MVS mainframe type of stupidity. So if that's corporate America, I wouldn't expect anything more from a checkout kiosk.

But fast forward to a time where robots pick up the groceries for you. Then, no more kiosks, no more checkout counters. It's then either a curbside pick or a home delivery.

Rin says

many Fortune 1000 firms still use Oracle Forms, the biggest joke for a front end GUI

Oracle APEX is much better.

zzyzzx says

Rin says

many Fortune 1000 firms still use Oracle Forms, the biggest joke for a front end GUI

Oracle APEX is much better.

Good to know, as something's got to replace that legacy garbage.

Rin says

Is no one worried? Or has everyone accepted my prognostication?

Just because accountants and possibly actuaries (although I question the latter more) are somewhat superfluous in certain contexts (which really seems to be your chief example) doesn't mean that every job is. Carl Frey and Michael Osborne at Oxford who studies this suggest that accountants are indeed at very high risk, but other high paying jobs such as chemical engineers or dentists are not -- they created an index that evaluates various jobs for automation, and towards the top are telemarketers and Patnet's favorite, realtors:

http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21594264-previous-technological-innovation-has-always-delivered-more-long-run-employment-not-less

In addition, the article points out that previous technological innovations has usually resulted in higher employment and higher wages after a period of adjustment.

People are made for work. If a job becomes so easy that one person can do it instead of ten, that frees up labor for different jobs that can tackle problems that were heretofore out of reach because of technical or workforce requirements. All that's really required for this to continue is a functioning system of economic rewards for productive labor, security, and resources.

As far as accountants go: I think they are a long long way from being obsolete. Auditors will always be needed to go over company and government finances. A good auditor will justify many, many times their salary in cost savings. A poor auditor will save at least ten times their wage. Why would you not hire someone with a productivity so high?

corntrollio says

high paying jobs such as chemical engineers

I've actually studied applied chemistry/chemical engineering and a lot of that training is based upon designing unit operations, primarily distillation towers. Aside from the day-to-day maintenance & retrofitting of such facilities, a lot of that design work has been computerized. That's reduced the actual need for ChemEs, dramatically since the 80s. Today, with the resurgence of the energy sector, they are primarily hired to help support fracking operations and transport but many alternate engineers: mechanical, civil, petroleum, geologist, etc are also involved there. The US has not build a new refinery since the late 70s. I'm hearing that there are plans on the drawing board but that's from a design firm, which had shed up to 80% of their headcount since the mid-80s. If these go through, great, some jobs for a decade but then what?

As for dentistry, that's heathcare and much of ancillary healthcare is about having ppl around. I think no one wants to enter a clinic and not see a PA or nurse but a machine. And lower paid dental hygienist are actually eating away at dentist's business over time, performing the routine fillings and cleanings, as not everyone needs a root canal or bridge, every quarter.