patrick.net

tatupu70 says

No, that's not right. The want/need is there already, there just wasn't a product currently available to meet that want/need. If you want to nitpick, the original comment should have been

How an someone want something that they don't know exists because it doesn't exist? That doesn't make any sense. People had no idea they wanted velcro for example. They certainly didn't need velcro (strippers might be an exception) Zippers and buttons worked just fine. Once they saw it they said oh this works better and a fortune was made.

bob2356 says

How an someone want something that they don't know exists because it doesn't exist?

It's a bit of a theoretical exercise, but the demand is there even if the product isn't. Would I buy a flying car if it existed for $5K. Damn right. At that price, there would be large demand. Even though the product doesn't exist.

Companies do focus groups all the time to get information on what demand exists for products that haven't been created yet. Often before they spend on R&D.

Don't think so.
You do not know what operational/comfort parameters would exist for such a vehicle. what if you had no control, completely automated...what if the crash rate was excessively high along with the fatalities since you would be airborne...what if you had to be strapped into a cockpit with no room for comfort due to weight restrictions....what if what if what if????

there's no guarentee there would be any demand for such a vehicle....

tatupu70 says

It's a bit of a theoretical exercise, but the demand is there even if the product isn't. Would I buy a flying car if it existed for $5K. Damn right. At that price, there would be large demand. Even though the product doesn't exist.

tatupu70 says

It's a bit of a theoretical exercise, but the demand is there even if the product isn't. Would I buy a flying car if it existed for $5K. Damn right. At that price, there would be large demand. Even though the product doesn't exist.

Why wander off into flying cars? Go back to velcro. There was a perfectly adaquate existing product that met all existing demand. Velcro just supplanted some of the demand. If never invented it wouldn't have mattered, buttons and zippers would have simply had a bigger market. So the need wasn't for velcro, it was for clothing closures. A lot of products, velcro being one, get invented by accident. No focus group involved.

beershrine says

There is no capitalist myth Thunderlips, capitalism is everywhere you look small and big, Liberals hate it or say they do to try to gain political ground...no way jose...we see right through them.

How does this liberals hate it thing work, other than I said so?

bob2356 says

Why wander off into flying cars? Go back to velcro. There was a perfectly adaquate existing product that met all existing demand. Velcro just supplanted some of the demand. If never invented it wouldn't have mattered, buttons and zippers would have simply had a bigger market. So the need wasn't for velcro, it was for clothing closures. A lot of products, velcro being one, get invented by accident. No focus group involved.

Just thought it illustrated the point easier. Same focus group--would you buy a clothing closure product that was easier and cheaper? I think most people would say yes.

No argument that things get invented by accident. My point is only that there can be and is demand for products that don't exist.

SoftShell says

Don't think so.

You do not know what operational/comfort parameters would exist for such a vehicle. what if you had no control, completely automated...what if the crash rate was excessively high along with the fatalities since you would be airborne...what if you had to be strapped into a cockpit with no room for comfort due to weight restrictions....what if what if what if????

there's no guarentee there would be any demand for such a vehicle....

First off--guarantee. I would think the grammar Nazi would be able to spell.

Second-- Your post is ridiculous. Sorry, next time I'll post every operational condition..

Hillary is defining the election debate. IT is an absurd statement, but she will use questions about it to launch in to her attack on trickle down economics and how much of a failure it's been.

Mish can try deny the extent to which supply side nonsense has contributed to the wealth gap. He's like to pin it on unions. I don't think that's gonna fly.

Tat manifests advanced stages of Keynesian Kool Aid poisoning.

The dynamic of improving one's situation is organic to man. Nullifying this dynamic by saying it is nothing more than an exploitation of the "group" is just more Keynesian Kool Aid.

This video is one of the Wogster's favorites, he asked me to link this:

The group can be counted on to turn things to shit.

http://www.youtube.com/embed/TRXcaWVr_uI

indigenous says

What about the guy who invented Gopro Camera, Steven Spielberg, or any of the celebrities, rockbands, Elon Musk, Richard Branson, Ross Perot.

The rest are mostly service providers, not small inventors who introduced a household product. ET and Kiss aren't products made by inventors in their garage.

Honey, go get the ET and turn on his heartlight - it's too dark in the closet to see my shoe collection.

Well, maybe Gene Simmon's tongue is the creation of a mad scientist in his garage lab.

Call it Crazy says

Never heard of the Pocket Hose?

Nobody invented that - I was born with one

thunderlips11 says

The rest are mostly service providers, not small inventors who introduced a household product.

As usual you jump over the important to examine the trivial.

indigenous says

As usual you jump over the important to examine the trivial.

I think "Household Product" commonly means a physical item, not a movie or group of musicians.

I never heard of Motley Crue or Indiana Jones -- or for that matter Virgin Airlines -- referred to as a "Household Product".

thunderlips11 says

I think "Household Product" commonly means a physical item, not a movie or group of musicians.

Again the defintion of a product is something people will pay money for.

indigenous says

Again the defintion of a product is something people will pay money for.

But not "Household Product"

thunderlips11 says

But not "Household Product"

What?

indigenous says

Yeah I used to like this sort of speech when I was a Glibertopian.

Now I see what an asshole this guy was.

Destroyed a building for which he was the hireling designer, because he despised the changes in "his" work. Completing ignoring the real owners, the financiers, and all the workmen.

Randism is sociopathy.

Vicente says

Now I see

Au contraire it is just advancing myopia

indigenous says

thunderlips11 says

But not "Household Product"

What?

thunderlips11 says

I can't think of one household product recently that was invented and brought to market by small inventor entrepreneurs.

thunderlips11 says

I can't think of one household product recently that was invented and brought to market by small inventor entrepreneurs.

Ok, No George Foreman grills, none of the QVC stuff, no Ronko pocket fisherman, none of the crap in that magazine that has a ton of that crap, none of those fabulous kitchen appliances, none of those helpful devices at home depot, laser levels, etc etc

Me thinks you are holding onto to your ideology a little too tight.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

She is the apotheosis of humankind.

You are confusing, I thought Lizzy Warren was?

For a second I thought you were Dan's backup patnet user until i realized there was no bulleted list in your comment.

thunderlips11 says

Honey, go get the ET and turn on his heartlight - it's too dark in the closet to see my shoe collection.

indigenous says

No George Foreman grills, none of the QVC stuff, no Ronko pocket fisherman,

I think this is a stretch. QVC? C'mon. Show me one person who doesn't have teased hair that buys anything on QVC. And Foreman didn't invent his Grill and besides that product was introduced 20 years ago.

thunderlips11 says

I think this is a stretch.

Au Contraire you are the grasping at straws...

thunderlips11 says

indigenous says

No more Horatio Algers?

Indignenous, Horatio Alger was a pedophile priest, who abandoned his pastorship just before he was to be held to account for "Despicable Acts" with Children.

All his stories were about some poor kid who gets graced out of poverty by being adopted by a generous man.

indigenous says

What about the the guys who started Google, Apple, Microsoft, Hewett Packard they started small.

You should read about Bill Gates. He wasn't an everyday kid from a middle class family. He was an attendee of a private school so wealthy he could lease time on a mainframe - something that didn't exist for 99.9% of kids in the 1960s.

There's only one way for an upstart, to become rich (at least the lower, starting rich) without those connections ... prop trading. Yes, the story of Jesse Livermore of the greater Boston area, was a regular Joe, who knew how to make trades, and later, a small fortune on Wall St.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jesse_Lauriston_Livermore

Unfortunately, he'd killed himself, due to family & other personal issues, I mean nobody's perfect, but the fact remains that he knew how to make money.

At my company, we also have a prop trader, who's clearly a rainmaker. I suspect that when this gig is over, he'll be retiring to the tune of $100M.

Rin says

There's only one way for an upstart, to become rich (at least the lower, starting rich) without those connections ... prop trading.

I'm sure you have read about this guy

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/72756316-michael-burry-profiled-bloomberg-risk-takers.html

Not everyone has his or your rainmaker's ability.

I will disagree that it is the only way to get rich, although a relative term.

Becoming a public servant seems to be a sure fire way to make millions.

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indigenous says

Rin says

There's only one way for an upstart, to become rich (at least the lower, starting rich) without those connections ... prop trading.

I'm sure you have read about this guy

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/72756316-michael-burry-profiled-bloomberg-risk-takers.html

Not everyone has his or your rainmaker's ability.

But that's just the point. If these guys went into ordinary IT, medical school, etc, the most they'd do is perhaps be in middle management or a surgeon. Thus, the Jobs and Gates of the world aren't like these prop traders. The fact that they can work the dealbook and with relative consistency, allows them to garner even more capital, to make a small fortune.

Rin says

There's only one way for an upstart, to become rich (at least the lower, starting rich) without those connections ... prop trading.

Yep. That is the best way to *aim* for a 7 or 8-figure yearly payout. Then again, most will fail, just like any other business.

Looking at our MD friends, even if they become "successful" they will still be miserable.

Rin says

But that's just the point. If these guys went into ordinary IT, medical school, etc, the most they'd do is perhaps be in middle management or a surgeon. Thus, the Jobs and Gates of the world aren't like these prop traders. The fact that they can work the dealbook and with relative consistency, allows them to garner even more capital, to make a small fortune.

Don't forget about the peter principal, anyway Jobs & Gates are entrepreneurs (unless you work for the government), that is my point.

As far as leveraging their position after they get connected, yup but you have to do the other first.

BTW is it possible for a retail investor to invest in the carry trade?

indigenous says

BTW is it possible for a retail investor to invest in the carry trade?

Possibly, your retail FX broker will pay you the yield difference. However, the rates may not be so good, and that can wreck your risk/reward.

If you trade FX futures, the "carry-trade" component has been mostly priced into the derivatives.

Anyone playing the volatility carry-trade? Like the near-consistent contango in the VIX futures?

NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE

Thanks,

I was reading on Zero Hedge that there the Yen is likely to drop.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-31/most-important-chart-investors-flashback-and-why-usdjpy-120-now-coming-fast

indigenous says

I was reading on Zero Hedge that there the Yen is likely to drop.

Against what currency though? USDJPY is hardly a carry trade.

If you do something like NZDJPY you need to be extremely careful.

Peter P says

If you do something like NZDJPY you need to be extremely careful.

That is what I was thinking.

I think retail investors get hammered with too many fees, to use the margin appropriately, to make a carry trade worth one's time.

Rin says

I think retail investors get hammered with too many fees, to use the margin appropriately, to make a carry trade worth one's time.

Worse yet, the retail forex bucket shops may even play games on you. Well, some are better than the others.

Thanks,

Any other avenues for the retail investors to benefit from the likely devaluation of the Yen?

indigenous says

Thanks,

Any other avenues for the retail investors to benefit from the likely devaluation of the Yen?

Well, there is the 6J futures, the FXY ETF, and spot forex.

However, do understand that you are *trading*, as opposed to expressing an opinion or belief. It is a brutal game.

Oh, there is a myriad of Yen ETFs and ETNs. Do your research carefully.

There are not a lot of viable retail options to directly trade pairs like NZDJPY other than spot forex.

Peter P says

However, do understand that you are *trading*, as opposed to expressing an opinion or belief. It is a brutal game.

There are 2 aspects one is the theory i.e. MMT, Ks, Austrians, the other is following the data. 2 different things.

And Thanks.

This was pointed out as many Austrians were predicting inflation because of the QEs. OTH Mish pointed out that is was not all that much as the total credit market was around 60 trillion which actually created deflation at the time as credit contracted in 2008

indigenous says

There are 2 aspects one is the theory i.e. MMT, Ks, Austrians, the other is following the data. 2 different things.

Regardless of theories, other things are far more important: entry, exit, position-sizing.