patrick.net

thunderlips11 says

And polls don't measure who is actually going to vote. The population might prefer somebody by 7%, but then 9% of them don't show up.

Trump has already surpassed Romney by hundreds of thousands of votes, and he's on track to surpass the number of Primary Voters for George Bush and create an all-time record for Republican Primary Votes.

The Democrats, on the other hand, are way down in primary participation over past Presidential Elections, even though Bernie voters seem to be jazzed.

In 2008, many voters went ape for Obama with enthusiasm. In 2016, nobody is going to go apeshit over Hillary

I agree with this--enthusiasm is Trump's best hope. The question is whether the Cruz/Rubio/Kasich voters will go the polls for Trump or not.

Trump and Bernie are the ones with voter headroom.
I think Hillary has maxed out. Anyone that would vote for Hillary now are admiting that they don't give a crap about none of the daming evidence toward her.
Those voting for Bernie, aren't in love with the fact that he's a socialist, they like that he is not HIllary. If she beats out Bernie, Trump will take away more votes from him than she will.
And Cruz and Kasich has a few that will go to Hillary rather than vote for Trump.

It's going to be a tight race. It might be another 2000 where just 4 votes decides the winner, in November.

I don't think Hillary is going to get a grassroots movement out to the polls, where the line wraps around many blocks and the pols has to stay open until midnight.

I think Hillary's general ection totals, will be about the same as her Primary numbers has been.

Now Trump keeps saying he's won more percentage wise, but the reality is, Hillary has actually had more Primary votes than anyone. If these numbers were being used to decide the winner, then Hillary would be the President after the primaries.

My hope is Trump breaks off Bernie, Cruz, and Kasich's numbers to make up the 10% deficit that Hillary has over him.

Otherwise he loses. I hate to say that, but that's the truth.

If Hillary doesn't have voters waiting in the wings and Trump takes supporters from those that dropped out, then he will win, if not count on a Hillary presidency.

Unless Obama hates Hillary so bad, he's waiting until after the primaries, to sick his prosecutor guard dogs on him. I wouldn't put that past him.
Then when she's out of the way, the DNC could just install Joe Biden as the Democrat surrogate candidate.
If they time it right, just a few weeks for the election. They might be able to catch the election while they were running Biden's name up the flag pole, and he was the high before the lull.
If they do it too soon, he might peter out before the election. So I would expect Hillary getting served with papers late September to early October, Putting Biden in mid October, that gives him two weeks to pull the wool over the voters eyes, before they get voters remorse.

tatupu70 says

I agree with this--enthusiasm is Trump's best hope. The question is whether the Cruz/Rubio/Kasich voters will go the polls for Trump or not.

At least 90% of them will. The ones who won't will sit out.

Tenpoundbass says

My hope is Trump breaks off Bernie, Cruz, and Kasich's numbers to make up the 10% deficit that Hillary has over him.

Trump is absolutely going to get most of those unaffiliated voters who couldn't vote in the closed primary states because they weren't a registered D or R. Those numbers are probably huge, and potentially big enough to give Trump a win in plenty of states. I suppose one could look at some of the closed primary states to see where their general election vote totals generally are and compare them to the primary totals to see what the numbers of non-affiliates voters are and guess how many more potential votes for Trump there are in those states.

Ironman says

Hillary looks like she has 2 M more actual popular votes right now than Trump.

Democratic Primaries have higher participation overall than Republican ones.

Ironman says

Plus, many of the primaries were closed, so the Indy's weren't able to have their voice heard. How will their votes enter into the mix?

zzyzzx says

I suppose one could look at some of the closed primary states to see where their general election vote totals generally are and compare them to the primary totals to see what the numbers of non-affiliates voters are and guess how many more potential votes for Trump there are in those states.

That's true as well. I wonder what is the split on life long independent voters like my self, that switched parties to be able to vote in the primaries.
vs those that say... "If Trump makes it to the election I'll vote for him."?

For all those folks on here that think Trump doesn't have any skeletons that Dems will exploit in the general election:

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/04/donald-trump-2016-campaign-biography-psychology-history-barrett-hurt-dantiono-blair-obrien-213835

Worthwhile reading.

And what do insiders think of a general election makeup?

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-november-insiders-222598

“There is positively no way for Trump to win in Pennsylvania,” said a Republican from that state.

“Trump cannot and will not carry Ohio,” a Republican from that state insisted. “He will do well in Appalachia and in the Mahoning Valley but he will get killed in the rest of the state. The danger for the GOP is losing Rob Portman which is a very real possibility under this match-up.”

Added a Florida Republican, who like all participants was granted anonymity in order to speak freely, “Trump is grinding the GOP to a stub. He couldn't find enough xenophobic, angry white Floridians to beat Hillary in Florida if he tried.”

tatupu70 says

For all those folks on here that think Trump doesn't have any skeletons that Dems will exploit in the general election:

Unlikely. He's been a public figure and tabloid regular for around 30 years, or most of his adult life. His weddings, divorces, interventions, etc. have all been well documented.

The real news is that there are hundreds of thousands fewer Hillary voters in the 2016 Dem Primaries than in 2008. Big Enthusiasm Gap.

Ironman says

I was comparing head to head votes at this point in time. TPB said Hillary had more than Trump, but if you look at total votes cast on the Repub and Dem sides, the total Repub votes exceed the Dems by 3 Million, but they've been diluted by all the candidates.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_vote_count.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/republican_vote_count.html

Thanks - I didn't realize this. This is really really bad news for the Hillary crowd, and the RCP Rep one doesn't include Rubio and Carson voters.

thunderlips11 says

The real news is that there are hundreds of thousands fewer Hillary voters in the 2016 Dem Primaries than in 2008. Big Enthusiasm Gap.

Agreed--the problem for Trump is that he will bring as many Dems to the polls to vote against him as Hillary does to vote for her. Trump will generate the enthusiasm on both sides.

"I don't have anything against Mr Trump, but I firmly believe he will be the death of the GOP, and possibly the nation as we know it."

Let's see....

Corrupt GOP...check

Corrupt Demo's...check

Corrupt POTUS...check

Corrupt SCOTUS...check

Corrupt Congress...check

Corrupt DOJ...check

Un-constitutional laws....check

Protesters waving "We Need Socialism" signs....check

Americans confused about which bathroom to use...check

Hitlery not in Prison...check

Corrupt Banksters not in prison....check

NSA Police State...check

My labor stolen by the government....check

I guess I would have to say: I'm looking forward to it!

GO TRUMP.........BURN IT TO THE GROUND

tatupu70 says

Agreed--the problem for Trump is that he will bring as many Dems to the polls to vote against him as Hillary does to vote for her. Trump will generate the enthusiasm on both sides.

Assuming that those who say they prefer Hillary aren't just kinda apathetic voters who are just going along with the rest of the School Office, but when it comes down to it, they'll stop and bring Boston Market home and Netflix away instead of going by a polling station.

We'll know more after the Conventions. I suspect a lot of Bernie voters will have a problem voting for Crooked Hillary, the poster child of Money in Politics.

ChapulinColorado says

GO TRUMP.........BURN IT TO THE GROUND

I'm with you. We couldn't really do much worse than our current crop of sociopaths ... I mean leaders.

thunderlips11 says

Crooked Hillary, the poster child of Money in Politics

She defines crooked politician in a way unequaled since Tammany Hall.

Trump has so much material to work with, he's like a kid going to Disneyland! He can focus on a new scandal each and every day until Election Day and never hit the same scandal twice. Hillary's baggage could sink a battleship!

Trump is going to put Hillary's face next to the definition of nafta and run against that.......And probably win.

Because Trumps right- NAFTA is the worst trade agreement signed anywhere by anyone. What business does the American government have enriching Mexico? How does that help the US taxpayer in any conceivable way? Oh but it helps our corporations right? Only, they're ours one day and the very next day are just so happy to point out that they were really international all along and we're just a bunch of backwards hayseeds to have believed otherwise.

Ever notice that Clintonite Reactionaries have nothing to say other than "Trump, baaaaaad. Drumpf, Small Hands."

What are Clinton's accomplishments? What bold stance did she take when it was unpopular or difficult to do so? What policies is she planning on changing or implementing?

Well, shes a woman, and the Clinton namesake. Thing is, Slick Willy doesnt seem so popular these days, or else we'd be seeing more of him.

The most obviously simple solution is everyone should vote Sanders

Doubt we will have that option ...

DieBankOfAmericaPhukkingDie says

Just because I sit to pee doesn't mean I don't like to KILL! KILL! KILL! KILL! Oh, fuck, Rosie, catch me!

LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!
A-pork-a-lips-now.... you have me rolling!