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Team Logan vs Team Depression Serfs


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2016 May 21, 6:26am   33,882 views  260 comments

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I want names and everyone to pick their side and I want to save this thread for when the next decade comes I want us all to remember those who bet against this country

#Economics

The days of running your false economic theories on this site are over

Pick a side and Let this war begin because the recession timeline isn't that far off ... We will see how your 1929 thesis holds up

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78   _   2016 May 21, 2:10pm  

tatupu70 says

And why would Gen X get clobbered, but boomers didn't?

They got impacted by the Housing bust more than any generation. Net worth nixed, a very high % had to tap into 401K and savings

Shifts with demographics with each economic cycle

M's who the oldest is now in the 30's are up to bat ...

If you want a good live census website this one has all data live

http://www.census.gov/popclock/?intcmp=home_pop

79   _   2016 May 21, 2:13pm  

tatupu70 says

Nope--that doesn't really explain it.

Demographically in this cycle ages 17-29 were massive as well as ages 49-65

Writing an article about this and with housing starts and why it's hard to get to the 50 year average of 1.5 million

Sometime people forget that population growth is one thing but in reality, prime age labor force growth is the real key

And as always, we had good growth in 1980's and 1990's but this did peak out short term in 2007 and it's only slowly growing again

80   tatupu70   2016 May 21, 3:49pm  

Logan Mohtashami says

They got impacted by the Housing bust more than any generation. Net worth nixed, a very high % had to tap into 401K and savings

That doesn't answer my question. The question was WHY? Since you won't answer I'll tell you. They weren't hit harder, they were just more likely to have bought at the top and not have enjoyed as much of the run-up. So, it just seems to you like they were hit harder.

81   tatupu70   2016 May 21, 3:50pm  

Logan Mohtashami says

Demographically in this cycle ages 17-29 were massive as well as ages 49-65

Writing an article about this and with housing starts and why it's hard to get to the 50 year average of 1.5 million

Sometime people forget that population growth is one thing but in reality, prime age labor force growth is the real key

And as always, we had good growth in 1980's and 1990's but this did peak out short term in 2007 and it's only slowly growing again

Once again--that's nice, but it has nothing to do with the topic at hand. The original question that you failed to answer was how does demographics explain the income and wealth inequality we see today?

82   tatupu70   2016 May 21, 3:55pm  

fyi--I can explain it very easily. And I can post all the graphs if you'd like me to, but they've all been posted before.

Increasing globalization and automation have created structural unemployment. This drives wages down and increases corporate profits. Owners get much richer while labor gets poorer or the lucky ones who have jobs tread water.

I can post inequality charts, corporate profits charts, real wages charts, et. al.

It all fits.

83   marcus   2016 May 21, 4:00pm  

It's not extreme to understand that U.S. Capitalism is broken.

Does it being broken mean we're all becoming serfs immediately ? Of course not. It's maybe even good for the market in the short term.

If it weren't broken the stock market might be lower than it is now. Go figure.

Even some of the 1%ers and many reputable economists have acknowledged the problem with the wealth disparity. It's obvious to anyone with a brain that this is a huge problem. Money isn't being invested in infrastructure or in education. Team logan wants to live of the residue of past successes and to hell with the long term future.

84   _   2016 May 21, 5:04pm  

tatupu70 says

I can post inequality charts, corporate profits charts, real wages charts, et. al.

Bring those to Dinner ;-)

85   _   2016 May 21, 5:07pm  

marcus says

Team logan

I have said this time and time again,

Low educated, Low skilled Americans need federal intervention, not state, Federal as the $ can be bigger, that isn't a very capitalist thing to say

My contention has been always. If everyone is supposed to be broke outside the 1% then the real poor don't get the help they need.

I could care less about the middle class, the data shows the poor are the ones that need help, but we don't push that agenda pushing fear, do it out strength as Bernie Sanders says, we are the wealthiest country in the world, some of programs are so small to do. :-)

86   MisdemeanorRebel   2016 May 21, 5:31pm  

HydroCabron says

tatupu70 says

How is pointing out issues with the US economy and desiring to get them fixed Anti American?

It is when "leftists" do it.

Hmmmm, I seem to remember being accused of anti-Americanism for pointing out various problems by somebody recently...

87   marcus   2016 May 21, 5:34pm  

Okay, maybe I stand corrected about team logan.

Logan Mohtashami says

I could care less about the middle class

Well, the middle class is shrinking, 2 average sort of jobs aren't really enough to support a family any more. That's messed up. meanwhile corporate profits and the profits of the wealthy are exploding. There is no mechanism to address this. It's not as simple as higher taxes.

Meanwhile there are movements to privatize prisons, and public education, as if the problem is that somehow profits to executives in education will somehow make education more effective. That's not how it works for higher education ? Why should it for high school or elementary ?

How is it that we could afford to provide nearly free public college education 40 years ago, and now even the least expensive public universities cost tens of thousands per year ? All the cost that the government used to subsidize is now pushed on to the consumer. That's just plain stupid considering that the consumer of education is a future tax payer.

88   _   2016 May 21, 5:37pm  

marcus says

Well, the middle class is shrinking,

because more people are making 100K, yes you're right

89   _   2016 May 21, 5:38pm  

marcus says

That's not how it works for higher education ? Why should it for high school or elementary ?

All for free college but also add skill set training camp centers to help people upgrade into the 21st century again, really pushing for the poor here, College educated Americans base pay in 2015 median was 48K-54K not bad for a kid

90   Y   2016 May 21, 5:43pm  

This is damning evidence...

Logan Mohtashami says

tatupu70 says

lol--

Humans when they resort to that typing language (lol) internally know they have been beaten

91   tatupu70   2016 May 21, 5:43pm  

Logan Mohtashami says

because more people are making 100K, yes you're right

100% incorrect, as usual. It's not because more people are making 100K. It's because more households have two incomes.

92   _   2016 May 21, 5:50pm  

tatupu70 says

100% incorrect, as usual. It's not because more people are making 100K. It's because more households have two incomes.

College educated Dual Income = over 100K yes in coastal cities it's over 200K

This is why you shouldn't worry about the middle class because they're making more money

Focus on the poor

Those who never graduated High School, Never went to college, have a drug problem

Why are you guys worried about people who are buying cars, buying homes, having sex and making babies

93   tatupu70   2016 May 21, 5:58pm  

Logan Mohtashami says

College educated Dual Income = over 100K yes in coastal cities it's over 200K

This is why you shouldn't worry about the middle class because they're making more money

Focus on the poor

Those who never graduated High School, Never went to college, have a drug problem

Why are you guys worried about people who are buying cars, buying homes, having sex and making babies

I'm just focused on trying to correct all the BS you are posting on here. You were 100% incorrect that more people are earning 100K in 2014 dollars now. I can't tell if you are purposely misleading or just don't know any better.

94   _   2016 May 21, 6:04pm  

tatupu70 says

I'm just focused on trying to correct all the BS you are posting on here

Please show in this chart where Americans all of Sudden became a third world poor people

Honestly, you're making a great thesis for South America, you have the wrong country..

How in the world did Americans buy 100 Million cars and 40 Million homes if everyone is so poor in the last 8 years

Plus, if you think America's economy is the worst you really must hate the world

Fallacy of Logic is great here ...

Hence why retail sales, car sales and home sales are all at cycle highs and please don't make me post 80 years of consumption charts again

95   tatupu70   2016 May 21, 6:06pm  

Logan Mohtashami says

Please show in this chart where Americans all of Sudden became a third world poor people

Please show me where I ever said America is a 3rd world country.

Logan Mohtashami says

Plus, if you think America's economy is the worst you really must hate the world

I don't think America's economy is the worst and I have certainly never said that.

96   _   2016 May 21, 6:07pm  

tatupu70 says

Please show me where I ever said America is a 3rd world country.

There we go ... Ok ... Now that we have cleared the room of Americans not being dirt poor

Where on this chart did we become poor

97   tatupu70   2016 May 21, 6:07pm  

Logan Mohtashami says

Fallacy of Logic is great here ...

All on your end. All you can do is make strawman arguments. That I'm un-American. Or hate America. Or think America's economy is the worst in the world.

Just try to stay on topic and we can have a good discussion.

98   _   2016 May 21, 6:09pm  

tatupu70 says

strawman arguments.

Just give me a timeline on this chart where we lost it as a country

99   tatupu70   2016 May 21, 6:09pm  

Logan Mohtashami says

There we go ... Ok ... Now that we have cleared the room of Americans being dirt poor

Where on this chart did we become poor

I've already told you the problem with that chart multiple times. Again--are you purposely being obtuse or are you being disingenuous?

The biggest problem is inequality. That chart shows the whole country so the gains of the 1% mask the real problem.

100   _   2016 May 21, 6:11pm  

tatupu70 says

The biggest problem is inequality

You want Rich people to have less wealth, that would imply if the 1% just fell out the planet you have no issue with anything else then correct

101   _   2016 May 21, 6:12pm  

For a country of 322 Million working 154 million that looks pretty good in 2016

102   tatupu70   2016 May 21, 6:15pm  

Logan Mohtashami says

You want Rich people to have less wealth, that would imply if the 1% just fell out the planet you have no issue with anything else then correct

It depends on what you do with their wealth after they fall.

103   _   2016 May 21, 6:17pm  

tatupu70 says

It depends on what you do with their wealth after they fall.

104   _   2016 May 21, 6:23pm  

Photograph of an unknown man during the Depression c.1932

105   _   2016 May 21, 6:24pm  

Do you guys and gals agree with me on this, people just dressed better back then even very poor men had coats and dressed properly ...

106   marcus   2016 May 21, 6:33pm  

The best thing about being a permabull is you will catch all the bull markets.

And also if you're in the business of selling securities how are you going to profit from the opinion that there's a 50% or better chance of a major downturn ? Better to just not go there. Am I right ?

107   marcus   2016 May 21, 6:38pm  

Logan Mohtashami says

College educated Dual Income = over 100K yes in coastal cities it's over 200K

This is why you shouldn't worry about the middle class because they're making more money

Okay, if that's your definition of middle class, then I guess you're right. 50 years ago, middle class was a painting contractor and a stay at home wife. Twenty years ago it was two 30k service sector jobs.

108   _   2016 May 21, 6:41pm  

marcus says

The best thing about being a permabull is you will catch all the bull markets.

Slow and Steady wins the race, long term portfolio, I only invest $ each month, could care less what the economic cycle tells me 25 year from now I will collect.

The real trick is having the capacity the investment each month and maintain your current debt to income ratio and liability cost in check

Cycles come and go but recession for long term investors are just entry points at lower levels, 20 years I will make it more conservative.

109   _   2016 May 21, 6:42pm  

marcus says

30k service sector jobs.

You seem like a reasonable man, can you see what I am trying to say :-)

110   tatupu70   2016 May 21, 6:57pm  

Logan Mohtashami says

Wow--who is preaching fear now? That response is more typical of CIC or indig-I would have expected better of you Logan.

111   tatupu70   2016 May 21, 6:59pm  

Logan Mohtashami says

And you see no problem with that chart? Really?

112   _   2016 May 21, 7:01pm  

tatupu70 says

-I would have expected better of you Logan.

You're the one who said what happens to their wealth when they fall

Most Americans even my darkest Marxist wanna be friends believe in property ownership... only a few tea leaves hippies even question the notion of rent and mortgages.

Old school Socialism died a long time ago and even great families of the dark Russian empire love the mob life too much to keep any glimmer of hope alive

113   _   2016 May 21, 7:03pm  

tatupu70 says

And you see no problem with that chart? Really?

No, I don't, manufacturing sole economy is a dying business and all the countries that held to that thesis are really having issue.

Now, I do give credit to the Chinese for getting the memo on this and trying to move to a service sector jobs

154 Million working and we are still the 2nd biggest manufacturing country in the world

Look at the battle against poverty globalization did

114   _   2016 May 21, 7:08pm  

What happened to me

40 years old listening to Beethoven - Moonlight Sonata, drinking mineral water, writing an article about demographic economics and housing, posting charts of poverty decline, fighting Gold bugs on twitter...

Not what I thought in my 20's ;-)

115   tatupu70   2016 May 21, 7:09pm  

Logan Mohtashami says

Most Americans even my darkest Marxist wanna be friends believe in property ownership... only a few tea leaves hippies even question the notion of rent and mortgages.

Old school Socialism died a long time ago and even great families of the dark Russian empire love the mob life too much to keep any glimmer of hope alive

And consider me among that club too. Last I checked the US had property ownership in the 1960s. That's the US economy I want.

Complete with rent, ownership, capitalism. So, please try again.

116   marcus   2016 May 21, 7:10pm  

Also, with respect to your demographics argument. In the mid sixties, say 1966, looking forward at that time, wasn't the next 15 years going to see a HUGE HUGE increase in the 25 to 54 demgraphic ? The oldest boomers were then about 20. Markets are forward looking. Why did the staock market go into s secular downturm for 16 years.

I'm not saying it's because of the boomers. But if your theory is mostly built on that, it does refute it fairly well. It seems like the real boom was after the economy had finished absorbing the baby boom.

117   _   2016 May 21, 7:10pm  

Any you guys and gals like art, I post historical photos timeline to history and historical art work each night

Any favorites you guys or gals have?

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