patrick.net

As always if you're not one these epic American doom people

Then I am not speaking to any of you.. and in real life none of you people are... just pretend to be for the sake of debate

Here is 4 minutes of Bernie's Speech from yesterday

https://www.facebook.com/Logan.Mohtashami/videos/vb.783163249/10153794234553250/?type=3&theater

Logan Mohtashami says

I have already saved all the posting here and the other thread so when post recession recovery happens in the next cycle we can show why the extreme left and right have no idea what the hell they're talking about

And I've done the same. I'm guessing they won't be taking your calls on CNBC at that point...

Logan Mohtashami says

If you haven't noticed my theme is making sure all the Great American Recession Bear II people are called out on their Fraud economic theories and just setting it up for the next cycle

If you say so--to me it looks more like your theme is to BS and then try to impress people with badges from your conference or a screen shot of your name on CNBC.

Logan Mohtashami says

people who are ideological agenda driven don't care about discipline they care only about message and in that message they go

You have it backwards there. I pick my ideology based on my economic knowledge. Once I figure out the problem and solution, I find the people who agree with me and will advance the same fight.

Logan Mohtashami says

Drama Queen Sissy Cry Baby Out of Context ....

Out of context? In what context were they used that wasn't calling other posters names?

Logan Mohtashami says

As always if you're not one these epic American doom people

Then I am not speaking to any of you.. and in real life none of you people are... just pretend to be for the sake of debate

I'm not an epic American doom person on this thread either. Only in your strawman of me.

tatupu70 says

If you say so--to me it looks more like your theme is to BS and then try to impress people with badges from your conference or a screen shot of your name on CNBC.

Logan is a wanna be investment banker.

tatupu70 says

I'm not an epic American doom person on this thread either.

Logan assumes that if your are not a super bull that believes in trickle down economcis, you are doom.

Logan's idea of economics is like going to a strip club with a no-touch policy. Lot's of flash, but you can't get any real business done.

Team Logan 4. Team DS 0 The days of this pizza fight betwee the right and left going unchecked is done .... There will be order, math, facts and data from a bin ideogiocal person. I suggest you all deal with it

Logan Mohtashami says

Team Logan 4. Team DS 0

Doesn't the fact that there are 0 people on the Team DS side make you pause and consider that perhaps you are fighting an imaginary battle against no one?

I'm going to start a thread called Team Tatupu against Team Poop on a stick where I maintain that filet mignon tastes better than poop on a stick. And I'll consider it vindication if more people prefer filet mignon. Of course I'm preserving all your posts about food as proof of your beliefs too...

Tell me Team Logan. How does math support an economic model with a currency backed by nothing, all production of physical products shipped overseas, and leveraging to a level unprecedented in history?

I'm not sure you even know what a serf is. They didn't own any land(see property taxes, mortgages), had to give up a portion of their earnings to the owner of the land they worked, or noble who offered them protection(see state/federal taxes, armed forces), and had no voice in who ruled over them(see presidential elections in a "two party" system).

If you want to keep status quo, you are actually advocating for serfdom.

After buying my house 3 years ago, and watching the upswing in the economy and housing for 4+ years, I'm back toward bear. I'll probably convert a good chunk of investment to cash soon. My view also colored by current work I'm doing. YMMV. If we were to list it, our current house price is beyond dumb. My stocks have been up, up, up to nose bleed levels. Looks like it's time to take, while the taking is good.

SOOOoooo ... I guess I'm team "Depression Serf" until wealth inequality equation is smoothed out more, or general profit taking and downward trends occur to sufficient degree to provide room for an upward cycle to start again. An economy based on a lopsided heavy slant toward Entertainment and FIRE won't float for forever. That's what I see America riding on right now. Tech is a maturing market as well and likely not to continue growth explosions for us. See Caterpillar (CAT) for a great American company, which I think is telegraphing things to come (heavy machinery = building demand = leading indicator).

Yes, ra-ra-ra America, but more now then ever before, we are not in economic isolation. Our economic health is tied very strongly to the world economy. I think most Americans are probably in for flat/grey times ahead at the very least.

I don't see many reasons to be hopeful that any major systemic issues are addressed, or pitfalls avoided, in the relative short term. So if we are holding flat, and a bump in the road comes ... that spells down to me. I'll put a time frame of next 4 years around that. If that's being a "perma-bear", well, ok. If my window is too big or too imprecise for you, I kind of don't care. That window is big enough for me to act on smart things right now. It may mean I mis 10% gain cause right now is "bear trap" territory, but I'll gladly mis out on 10%, to save 20-30% loss.

Summation:
- Good run-up seen in past 4 years (house,stocks)
- World economy remains shaky
- US economy appears to have some big imbalances (my faith in the current ability of the American consumer is also low)
- US political scene a total mess

Macro economic trends are based on much more than what is captured in a single graph. At this point I'm likely, maybe irrationally so, more swayed by things that aren't purely market/economic based. I want to see Europe on better ground. I want to see America with less adversarial positions in the international arena. I want to see a US leader that inspires, and unifies, at the helm. That's easily 4+ years away.

NuttBoxer says

Tell me Team Logan. How does math support an economic model with a currency backed by nothing

The US dollar is backed by the production capacity of the US. It garners more confidence than any other currency on the planet.

Hey Logan, what's the score. Rew just defected.

Nobody ever went broke selling too early. - Baruch.

Strategist says

Hey Logan, what's the score

So far no one has made any kind of thesis that Americans are serfs or heading to be serfs or that the 1929 vs 2016 thesis that $$$ being held to high at the top is going to bring down American consumption down do bad that we are going to have a deflationary spiral

Shocking!

tr6 says

Logan assumes that if your are not a super bull that believes in trickle down economcis, you are doom.

Actually no, I just don't believe the Americans that consume are high school drop outs that have a substance abuse, which is the key core thesis for anyone who believes America is heading to Serf Villa Nation

This is usually a tactic done by the left to try to make it seem that life is so bad ...

Where the right spread their hyperinflation dollar collapse non sense

tr6 says

Logan is a wanna be investment banker.

Actually a top 1% on LinkedIn, but don't have any investment banker profile on there

You're all welcome to see

https://www.linkedin.com/in/logan-mohtashami-5167631?trk=nav_responsive_tab_profile

Logan Mohtashami says

Strategist says

Hey Logan, what's the score

So far no one has made any kind of thesis that Americans are serfs or heading to be serfs or that the 1929 vs 2016 thesis that $$$ being held to high at the top is going to bring down American consumption down do bad that we are going to have a deflationary spiral

Shocking!

Those are life time pessimists. Count them as Serfs.

Strategist says

Those are life time pessimists. Count them as Serfs.

1790-2016 Serf thesis ... we need the triangle Pizza Fight to go

Left vs Right and then everyone else

I am really hope I get everyone here to go against my thesis , so far I go the usual suspect from the extreme of both sides but some people are being clever and not talking

Maybe those demographics charts are working, if I can make some MMT people think about demographic economics then I can get the hard left and right to think about it even if they don't want to admit it

tatupu70 says

Only in your strawman of me.

So, this means you're not in Serf thesis then correct? and can I take you away from a 1929 deflationary spiral thesis as well?

Awesome

Welcome to Team Logan!!

Rew says

(my faith in the current ability of the American consumer is also low)

Even with the world slowdown since 2011 .. nada .. nothing, trend has kept pace, even in a light demographic patch

tatupu70 says

Team Poop on a stick

When I take you out to dinner we need to not bring this up ;-)

Logan Mohtashami says

tatupu70 says

Only in your strawman of me.

So, this means you're not in Serf thesis then correct? and can I take you away from a 1929 deflationary spiral thesis as well?

Awesome

Welcome to Team Logan!!

Don't take him Logan. He is a spy.

NuttBoxer says

How does math support an economic model with a currency backed by nothing,

Sure is funny how when the dollar rose it took all those one trick pony economies who export and debase into a dizzy... ask the BOJ about the dollar now

I just bought an another house and will buy more. Even if you bring the Harry Dent's of the world or Peter Schiff's of the world together, one thing is for certain, if America goes down, then the world goes down and there will be no one in a better place. I do not wish to live in fear and will continue on the path that America albeit its problems is still the best place to invest in. What may come or may not come should not dictate continous doom and gloom. Hell, even in depression you can make wealth if you are focused on opportunities than ammo, gold and lake accidents. So stupid there is no word to describe that mentality. I am still on Team Logan and will continue to be on it.

Strategist says

The US dollar is backed by the production capacity of the US. It garners more confidence than any other currency on the planet.

I think the US dollar is actually backed far more in recent years, not by our production, but our huge military spending and political stability. That's kind of been eroding some though.

Manufacturing ...
http://www.businessinsider.com/markit-flash-manufacturing-pmi-may-23-2016-5
Everything sideways and probably some ticks down coming.

Housing starts being goosed ...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/truth-housing-starts-april-2016-160341415.html

If history doesn't repeat itself, but rhyme, what comes next?

Logan Mohtashami says

Shocking!

You find it shocking that people aren't making far flung predictions toward serfdom in the short term? That's kind of a strange expectation to hold. Why would you think that?

Serfs aren't coming, but some sell-offs and a hiccup or two sure are likely at these heights, by my read. USA cheerleading is only going to get you so far, at this point, Logan.

tatupu70 says

badges from your conference or a screen shot of your name on CNBC.

You forget all my Interviews on Bloomberg Financial, remember I have done the U.S. Housing Market Preview for the Up coming year for Bloomberg 2014-2016

Not to mention speaking at the BNY Mellon Stock Conference with Bloomberg as well with Kathleen Hays, some of you market people know who I am talking about

Bad choice of color for T.V. I admit

Rew says

USA cheerleading is only going to get you so far, at this point, Logan

This is why I am keeping this entire thread for 2020 post recession recovery to show that the extreme left if they believe in serfs will be just as wrong as the hyper inflation right

Because you're starting from I need to find flaws about America to fit my economic ideology

Piece by piece name by name ...

All I have to do is wait... nothing less and nothing more for the next recession and recovery stage

This Pizza fight you guys do here Right Vs Left has made you guys way too wild on some of your economic theory...

HadEnough says

I just bought an another house and will buy more. Even if you bring the Harry Dent's of the world or Peter Schiff's of the world together, one thing is for certain, if America goes down, then the world goes down and there will be no one in a better place. I do not wish to live in fear and will continue on the path that America albeit its problems is still the best place to invest in. What may come or may not come should not dictate continous doom and gloom. Hell, even in depression you can make wealth if you are focused on opportunities than ammo, gold and lake accidents. So stupid there is no word to describe that mentality. I am still on Team Logan and will continue to be on it.

I totally agree. I'm not going to live in fear, but I'll take when the taking is good. I don't count myself on team Logan. I have general optimism in America long term, but more pessimism in current markets and trends now though.

It's not most of your fault, not many people track economic data for a living.

So, it's easy to pick pocket false economic theories .... cycles come and go.. picked the wrong country in 2016 time frame to predict doom and gloom

We are going to kick the worlds ass in the next 20 years ...

All that will be left are whispers in the wind in some dark malice Forrest about some doom and gloom over that 20 Trillion Dollar 160 Million Plus Working U.S. economy in the next cycle

No Utopia economy out there... but there is one economy

that has King Dollar and also for mature economy has the best demographics on prime age labor face. The main thing that I believe would keep this cycle tamed is going to change in a few years. 2008-2019 was a light demographic patch year, unlike the 1980's and 1990's

No economy grows great forever, but again.. bad time to get super bearish on the U.S.

We will have a recession but the recovery cycle will happen quickly ...

We have an outside shot to post 11 years of economic growth making this a remarkable cycle of expansion while the world has issue...

We only import deflationary factors, we don't import inflation or recession

#USA

In a few years you will see what I mean once the recession is done.. no deflationary collapse, no breakdown on the U.S. economy

Peter's World collapse wouldn't happen

Dent 2nd Great Depression won't happen

and America will strive on as the best domestic economy world for a country of its size while other country have demographic deflationary factors to deal with!

Logan Mohtashami says

It's not most of your fault, not many people track economic data for a living.

And when they do, they can shockingly get it so wrong, like 2000 (dot come crash) and 2008 (housing).

You could be right Logan, the simple thing is I'm not going to be sad to turn dollar signs on paper/screen into actual dollars and stability for myself and family. I'm about to buy myself a whole world of freedom I've never known. I'll likely be able to change my occupation into something more frivolous, risky, and fun as well.

Logan Mohtashami says

In a few years you will see what I mean once the recession is done..

We aren't in a recession.
I'm not predicting any major crash, I'm just not predicting smooth sailing in the next 4 years. This doesn't read to continue in my mind.

Logan Mohtashami says

We will have a recession but the recovery cycle will happen quickly ...

Wait, what? So you agree? Sell on/before the dip, and buy in the height of the fear, right?
I don't see us in height of fear territory yet. For me, it's profit taking time. Especially with what I'm holding. :)

Logan Mohtashami says

We are going to kick the worlds ass in the next 20 years ...

You mean we will be kick ass for 20 years, continuous, starting now? Or we are going to be in a place in 20 years where we are kicking ass?

I think Logan is a secret bear right now too. :)

Rew says

Wait, what? So you agree? Sell on/before the dip, and buy in the height of the fear, right?

I get it, this is an investment club..

So I threw a few bones out with

HP
UNXL
My biggest and only investment stock MASI
ATEN
and now building a position in TWTR

So, the total market itself.

Look at me in this light, I will give you the economic data breakdown for when the first level recession flag comes up

But the market.. she is old.. but she still has some legs left.

Longest duration period in not breaking into new highs, the strong dollar did it's impact but earnings are coming back.. need to see a break out in Q4 2016 or Q1 because we should get some upside surprises after oil stopped going down and now has a 80% + rally from the lows

Oh dear:

New comment by FP in Team Logan vs Team Depression Serfs:
indigenous says

Hard to say but certainly accurate sentiment on the sign.

Welcome to my ignore list of patent imbeciles.

Why is that the Socialists, the party of the people, are so intolerant?

Just Remember:

Strategist says

The US dollar is backed by the production capacity of the US. It garners more confidence than any other currency on the planet.

NuttBoxer says

all production of physical products shipped overseas,

Also, comparing trash to trash still gives you...

NuttBoxer says

NuttBoxer says

all production of physical products shipped overseas,

It's not true. It's not even a myth. It's a bizarre claim I have never heard before.

Logan Mohtashami says

I get it, this is an investment club..

I'm just an individual. I'm flattered, but I think that ego makes you think you are talking to important people here on PNet. (wink)
Market news is so positive today, my holdings popped out of their little doldrums (just over 4% gain in 6 days). I'm itching to put in a stop loss floor, but think I'm going to wait just a touch more. I think I might see a little waver down and back and don't won't an early sell.

Logan Mohtashami says

Look at me in this light, I will give you the economic data breakdown for when the first level recession flag comes up

Thank you, but it won't help me maximize and protect what I currently hold. I only 'trust' the investment brokers who actually take a cut of the funds they are managing for me. Incentives you know.