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". The Millennial generation will NOT be buying houses anytime soon.
Buying a new home is an old idea
So what time do I come over with the beer?
You missed it, that was yesterday. Today we have rain. There's always the July 4th party, which is bigger. I wonder if Dan will show up this year.
The idea that there is a need for MORE houses for a larger population is bogus.
Still drinking from yesterday's BBQ?
And no, Dan won't show up. He's not talking to us, you know.
Population in 2000 was 282 million and roughly 990K houses were sold.
US Population in 1960 was 181 million and about the sames new homes sold then as now
And no, Dan won't show up. He's not talking to us, you know.
Did you deny climate change or refute Elizabeth Warren's Native American heritage?
And no, Dan won't show up. He's not talking to us, you know.
Did you deny climate change or refute Elizabeth Warren's Native American heritage?
Hell no. He became mean after losing an argument.
Paging Logan... Paging Logan...
Like I have said from the start, this cycle won't have enough qualified home buyers once you exclude cash buyers to have a real recovery.
Ages 17-29 don't buy homes Ages 49-65 don't buy homes. The very fact that this was missed by almost everyone still troubles me. Need to wait for years 2020-2024
Miss Housing Is In Nirvana... the top Wall Street Analyst in housing with her Nirvana thesis confused everyone because she had demographic economics backward and because everyone listened to her in 2013 and 2014, it confused people
Unlike some people who gave a more modest outlook for sales demand
Home Builders, New Homes Sales And The Affordability Myth
https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/01/25/home-builders-new-homes-sales-and-the-affordability-myth/
Last year I had 8%-12% sales growth with some upside if median home prices cooled down which is only a make shift in lower sales price points thesis
But everyone had 24%-41% sales growth because 2014 was the biggest miss in new home sales every recorded in a up cycle, so they over played their 2015 sales estimate
Which lead to this correction
As noted here for 2016 April 23, 2016, the headline was Time For New Home Sales To Show Growth
https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/04/23/time-for-new-home-sales-to-show-growth/
Not talking about the headline blowout number of 619K... that number will be revised down, revisions were all positive in the past few months and that is what really matters.
Slow and Steady until demographics get better, but new homes are very expensive, existing homes much cheaper
and for the record this is what the population to new home sales data looks like in a chart
New single-family home sales are about 4.7% below the 1963 start of this data series. The population-adjusted version is 39.1% below the first 1963 sales and at a level similar to the lows we saw during the double-dip recession in the early 1980s, a time when 30-year mortgage rates peaked above 18%. Today's 30-year rate is around 4%.
Be mindful of the housing inflation thesis but most important of all
Demographic economics matter for housing more than any sector outside of Health Care which is heavy for Older Americans
- No more exotic loans left in this system, lending is back to it's very liberal lending format in a very subsided housing market
Discipline, Discipline, Discipline
On another note Happy Memorial Weekend and remember our fallen
Ages 17-29 don't buy homes Ages 49-65 don't buy homes. The very fact that this was missed by almost everyone still troubles me.
No need to be troubled. The troubling fact is those 25-54 are not working asa percentage as much as they used to and that includes those aged 30-48.
No one is missing anything that only Logan sees!
Re "BIGGEST RISE IN 8 YEARS!!!!
The law of small numbers- 8 years ago new home sales were low too
The troubling fact is those 25-54 are not working asa percentage as much
I counter than thesis with this
We are near full employment
We are only missing 2.8 million Americans from the peak of the previous cycle in terms of prime age labor force growth
Out of those 2.8 million, a lot of them have given reasons why they don't work.
Pretty much if you're not working after 8 years in this cycle, it's you not the economy.
These aren't home buyers anyway, renters at best
New Home Price inflation is a function of 4 decades of building bigger and bigger homes
1,500 median sq foot in 1975 to 2,500 + median sq foot in 2016
You have limits when you only build to the high end
DHI and some other builders have tried this market, but I don't see that being a big fact until the next decade when you get massive supply of proper aged Americans
Demographics matter
Census live population chart is the best chart for you guys to go see what I am talking about
We are near full employment
You and St.Louis Fed President Bullard seem to believe that, reality indicates otherwise
Those with student loans for the most part are not those 49+
Rather they are those in their prime home buying years 30-48
That can't be dismissed with false "full employment" palaver
But I guess that's where Socialist Slob Sanders comes in to forgive student loans and give free 'helt care and collige' to everyone-paid for by 'dah won pahsent in dis cundree'
You and St.Louis Fed President Bullard seem to believe that, reality indicates otherwise
Unemployment Claims are at 43 year lows
Job Openings are at 16 year highs with 5.8 million Job Openings
For years the demographic prime age labor force growth data numbers was showing this to be true soon and that day has come
Unemployment Claims are at 43 year lows
Meaningless stat because
-the economy was not doing well 43 years ago 1971-72. Does it mean we are doing as well as during high unemployemnt, high inflation 1971-72 times?
-fewer people attached to the labor force means few people to get fired
-long term unemployed run out of benefits and can't reapply
The job market is good in select parts of the country-the people that think the economy and labor market are doing well for the most part live in those areas
LA, SF, Boston, NYC- the ones driven by finance, real estate
The rest of the economy is in the toilet but the stock jockeys and real estate pumpers don't see it- it's not their world
It's very easy to get a part time job today- I know many who have two of them
Companies that dont want to pay obama care have set up multiple shifts for part time workers
This brings down the unemployment rate and claims and makes it look like lots of jobs are being created
Its shuffling labor around to make it look like there is "full employment"
154 Million people working
With the world slowing down since 2011 and a oil + commodity crash and it did nothing to change the curve here in America
For a country of our size with 322 million people
Demographics and the U.S. Dollar matter where other countries are at the mercy of the dollar
Why China is so desperate to get out of it's export economy and into a service one
Another reason there are low jobless claims
I've seen this dynamic- someone with two part time jobs either gets fired or hates one of their partime jobs they go and get another part time job
They never file a claim AND they count as a new job created and if they leave voluntarily it makes the labor market appear "dynamic"
Why China is so desperate to get out of it's export economy and into a service one
Excatly everyone would rather consumer than produce- but someone has to do the work!
China will eventually outsource to SE Asia and Africa
I've seen this dynamic- someone with two part time jobs either gets fired or hates one of their partime jobs they go and get another part time job
They never file a claim AND they count as a new job created and if they leave voluntarily it makes the labor market appear "dynamic"
Near 2 decades low here
Near 2 decades low here
The statisitc above is in total workers, not as a percentage of the labor force.
Since the labor force has shrunk the number with two jobs will also have shrunk
I have seen dozens of employers shift their ENTIRE work force to part time- with only a full time manager.
It's true some of the workers only have ONE part time job, when they used to have one fuil time job
But someone is peddling fiction when they claim there are plenty of full time well paying jobs- ie more today then before the Great Recession
If the economy/job market was firing on all cylinders an ignoramus like Sanders wouldn't be attracting crowds and a neo nationalist like Trump wouldn't be either
People would just want "FOUR MORE YEARS' of the same- clearly they don't
There is no deviation of trend here, outside the one time in 2007 where prime age labor force did peak and declined
and we had a uptick of the Elderly
See to someone who doesn't track data for a living, the false narrative economic theory might sound plausible
But to those who actually do track for a living but don't have a ideological spin, we can easily pin point the flaws in the economic theory that is trying to be sought out
I see something different re median household income- from your friend Bullard's St. Louis Fed
US. Bureau of the Census, Real Median Household Income in the United States [MEHOINUSA672N], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MEHOINUSA672N, May 30, 2016.
The statisitc above is in total workers, not as a percentage of the labor force.
cute...
I see something different re median household income- from your friend Bullard's St.. Louis Fed
That data point moves with employment to population metrics if you channel the data line going back years to employment to population wages they track each other
Again
It's cute, but it only works on people who aren't versed with economic data, please, test me here I have a ton of more charts to prove your economic theories wrong...
I only require you to speak
:-)
Those wonderful "full time" jobs are not helping as household income is IN DECLINE while Home Prices RISE
That is the simple reason fewer homes are being sold
US. Bureau of the Census, Real Median Household Income in the United States [MEHOINUSA672N], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MEHOINUSA672N, May 30, 2016.
Let me make it easier for you guys
Here is the Table 1. Median usual weekly earnings of full-time wage and salary workers by sex, quarterly averages, seasonally adjusted
right here =------> http://www.bls.gov/news.release/wkyeng.t01.htm
Go pull charts of the LFPR for 25 to 54
Ok 81%
Due to Demographics you naturally get a uptick
Final data lines correlates .. shocking .. right with the census data and demographics
That is the simple reason fewer homes are being sold
Which tracks employment to population metrics... shocking how that works, isn't it?
Logan feels working full time at Home Depot making $15/hr is awesome, e
If that's all you can do, that's all you go do then
Somehow, Logan feels working full time at Home Depot making $15/hr is awesome, even though that same worker use to have a job paying $30/hr with full benefits. Hey, the government stats tell us UE is at 5%, so every thing is great and tons of people will be buying new houses on their new $15./hr wage..
People are doing so well that we don't need free collidge and helt care in dis cundree. We don't need no stinking money from dah won pahsent we can take care of ourselves!
That is the simple reason fewer homes are being sold
Which tracks employment to population metrics... shocking how that works, isn't it?
Higher new home prices and fewer people with income to buy them- yes simple- no chart or selfie required to explain
Higher new home prices and fewer people with income to buy them- yes simple- no chart or selfie required to explain
Shocking how this stuff works
One of these days, you guys are going to remember my demographic economics and then it's going to make sense
Outer band limits can be discussed both positive and negative
But not the core thesis ...
That's kind of how economics works
If you theories were valid we would see much lower bands of economic output.. especially in this cycle...
Which I have said since 2010, was going to be weak... but you guys are taking it to a much darker place...
And that's the problem with your skewed narrative... you just want to count "bodies" employed versus reality on the ground.
I do feel sorry for a high school drop out working at Home Depot, or a non college educated America working at home depot and a non trade show Skill American working at home depot
But ...
They're working and if they were in a lot other countries they wouldn't be working at all...
Back to the cute thesis
The chart you posted above shows those aged 25-54 have fewer part time jobs which makes sense given they are less attached to the labor force in general as the chart below shows:
This 25-54 age group is not working as much,
their incomes are not rising,
they have over a trillion in student loan debt (nearly half in default) and
new home prices are at all time highs, so fewer new homes are sold.
No amount of posting endless charts and ridicule will change that.
There you go.. I wasn't referring to the high school kid or non-educated... but you refuse to read and learn.
Who do think is working at these jobs
College 2015 Grad median pay is 48K-54K...
See the %, do you now get why I find this thesis to be strange
It moves with employment to population metrics
Look at the % gaps, I mean you're basically saying America is a failure because
The last remaining high school drop outs, high school grads, and those who are drug addicts and criminal active aren't working full time jobs?
Because the rest are working
Again, you guys are versed in the data and now you're making my points for me
This is all you guys got about how pathetic America is ..
Try harder than that ....
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Three Reasons New Home Sales are at 1960's Levels
https://smaulgld.com/new-home-sales/