patrick.net

https://smaulgld.com/housing-recovery-law-small-numbers/

Ages 17-29 don't buy homes Ages 49-65 don't buy homes. The very fact that this was missed by almost everyone still troubles me.

No need to be troubled. The troubling fact is those 25-54 are not working asa percentage as much as they used to and that includes those aged 30-48.

No one is missing anything that only Logan sees!

14

smaulgld 2016 May 30, 12:54pm

Strategist says

Hell no. He became mean after losing an argument.

"an" argument- which one

15

smaulgld 2016 May 30, 12:56pm

Re "BIGGEST RISE IN 8 YEARS!!!!

The law of small numbers- 8 years ago new home sales were low too

16

_ 2016 May 30, 12:58pm

http://www.census.gov/popclock/?intcmp=home_pop

The troubling fact is those 25-54 are not working asa percentage as much

I counter than thesis with this

We are near full employment

We are only missing 2.8 million Americans from the peak of the previous cycle in terms of prime age labor force growth

Out of those 2.8 million, a lot of them have given reasons why they don't work.

Pretty much if you're not working after 8 years in this cycle, it's you not the economy.

These aren't home buyers anyway, renters at best

New Home Price inflation is a function of 4 decades of building bigger and bigger homes

1,500 median sq foot in 1975 to 2,500 + median sq foot in 2016

You have limits when you only build to the high end

DHI and some other builders have tried this market, but I don't see that being a big fact until the next decade when you get massive supply of proper aged Americans

Demographics matter

Census live population chart is the best chart for you guys to go see what I am talking about

17

smaulgld 2016 May 30, 12:59pm

We are near full employment

You and St.Louis Fed President Bullard seem to believe that, reality indicates otherwise

18

smaulgld 2016 May 30, 1:02pm

Those with student loans for the most part are not those 49+
Rather they are those in their prime home buying years 30-48
That can't be dismissed with false "full employment" palaver
But I guess that's where Socialist Slob Sanders comes in to forgive student loans and give free 'helt care and collige' to everyone-paid for by 'dah won pahsent in dis cundree'

19

_ 2016 May 30, 1:03pm

You and St.Louis Fed President Bullard seem to believe that, reality indicates otherwise

Unemployment Claims are at 43 year lows

Job Openings are at 16 year highs with 5.8 million Job Openings

For years the demographic prime age labor force growth data numbers was showing this to be true soon and that day has come

20

smaulgld 2016 May 30, 1:07pm

Unemployment Claims are at 43 year lows
Meaningless stat because
-the economy was not doing well 43 years ago 1971-72. Does it mean we are doing as well as during high unemployemnt, high inflation 1971-72 times?
-fewer people attached to the labor force means few people to get fired
-long term unemployed run out of benefits and can't reapply

The job market is good in select parts of the country-the people that think the economy and labor market are doing well for the most part live in those areas
LA, SF, Boston, NYC- the ones driven by finance, real estate
The rest of the economy is in the toilet but the stock jockeys and real estate pumpers don't see it- it's not their world

It's very easy to get a part time job today- I know many who have two of them
Companies that dont want to pay obama care have set up multiple shifts for part time workers
This brings down the unemployment rate and claims and makes it look like lots of jobs are being created
Its shuffling labor around to make it look like there is "full employment"

21

_ 2016 May 30, 1:12pm

154 Million people working

With the world slowing down since 2011 and a oil + commodity crash and it did nothing to change the curve here in America

For a country of our size with 322 million people

Demographics and the U.S. Dollar matter where other countries are at the mercy of the dollar

Why China is so desperate to get out of it's export economy and into a service one

22

smaulgld 2016 May 30, 1:17pm

Another reason there are low jobless claims
I've seen this dynamic- someone with two part time jobs either gets fired or hates one of their partime jobs they go and get another part time job
They never file a claim AND they count as a new job created and if they leave voluntarily it makes the labor market appear "dynamic"

23

smaulgld 2016 May 30, 1:18pm

Why China is so desperate to get out of it's export economy and into a service one

Excatly everyone would rather consumer than produce- but someone has to do the work!
China will eventually outsource to SE Asia and Africa

24

_ 2016 May 30, 1:23pm

I've seen this dynamic- someone with two part time jobs either gets fired or hates one of their partime jobs they go and get another part time job

They never file a claim AND they count as a new job created and if they leave voluntarily it makes the labor market appear "dynamic"

Near 2 decades low here

25

smaulgld 2016 May 30, 1:32pm

Near 2 decades low here

The statisitc above is in total workers, not as a percentage of the labor force.
Since the labor force has shrunk the number with two jobs will also have shrunk

I have seen dozens of employers shift their ENTIRE work force to part time- with only a full time manager.
It's true some of the workers only have ONE part time job, when they used to have one fuil time job

But someone is peddling fiction when they claim there are plenty of full time well paying jobs- ie more today then before the Great Recession

If the economy/job market was firing on all cylinders an ignoramus like Sanders wouldn't be attracting crowds and a neo nationalist like Trump wouldn't be either
People would just want "FOUR MORE YEARS' of the same- clearly they don't

26

_ 2016 May 30, 1:59pm

#1

There is no deviation of trend here, outside the one time in 2007 where prime age labor force did peak and declined

and we had a uptick of the Elderly

See to someone who doesn't track data for a living, the false narrative economic theory might sound plausible

But to those who actually do track for a living but don't have a ideological spin, we can easily pin point the flaws in the economic theory that is trying to be sought out

27

smaulgld 2016 May 30, 2:00pm

I see something different re median household income- from your friend Bullard's St. Louis Fed

US. Bureau of the Census, Real Median Household Income in the United States [MEHOINUSA672N], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MEHOINUSA672N, May 30, 2016.

28

_ 2016 May 30, 2:01pm

The statisitc above is in total workers, not as a percentage of the labor force.

cute...

29

_ 2016 May 30, 2:02pm

I see something different re median household income- from your friend Bullard's St.. Louis Fed

That data point moves with employment to population metrics if you channel the data line going back years to employment to population wages they track each other

30

_ 2016 May 30, 2:03pm

Again

It's cute, but it only works on people who aren't versed with economic data, please, test me here I have a ton of more charts to prove your economic theories wrong...

I only require you to speak

:-)

31

smaulgld 2016 May 30, 2:06pm

Those wonderful "full time" jobs are not helping as household income is IN DECLINE while Home Prices RISE

That is the simple reason fewer homes are being sold

US. Bureau of the Census, Real Median Household Income in the United States [MEHOINUSA672N], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MEHOINUSA672N, May 30, 2016.

32

_ 2016 May 30, 2:07pm

Let me make it easier for you guys

Here is the Table 1. Median usual weekly earnings of full-time wage and salary workers by sex, quarterly averages, seasonally adjusted

right here =------> http://www.bls.gov/news.release/wkyeng.t01.htm

33

smaulgld 2016 May 30, 2:08pm

That's a nice change from the selfies - Thanks!

34

_ 2016 May 30, 2:09pm

Go pull charts of the LFPR for 25 to 54

Ok 81%

Due to Demographics you naturally get a uptick

Final data lines correlates .. shocking .. right with the census data and demographics

35

_ 2016 May 30, 2:10pm

That is the simple reason fewer homes are being sold

Which tracks employment to population metrics... shocking how that works, isn't it?

36

_ 2016 May 30, 2:11pm

Logan feels working full time at Home Depot making $15/hr is awesome, e

If that's all you can do, that's all you go do then

37

smaulgld 2016 May 30, 2:13pm

Somehow, Logan feels working full time at Home Depot making $15/hr is awesome, even though that same worker use to have a job paying $30/hr with full benefits. Hey, the government stats tell us UE is at 5%, so every thing is great and tons of people will be buying new houses on their new $15./hr wage..

People are doing so well that we don't need free collidge and helt care in dis cundree. We don't need no stinking money from dah won pahsent we can take care of ourselves!

38

smaulgld 2016 May 30, 2:14pm

That is the simple reason fewer homes are being sold

Which tracks employment to population metrics... shocking how that works, isn't it?

Higher new home prices and fewer people with income to buy them- yes simple- no chart or selfie required to explain

39

_ 2016 May 30, 2:16pm

Higher new home prices and fewer people with income to buy them- yes simple- no chart or selfie required to explain

Shocking how this stuff works

40

_ 2016 May 30, 2:18pm

One of these days, you guys are going to remember my demographic economics and then it's going to make sense

Outer band limits can be discussed both positive and negative

But not the core thesis ...

That's kind of how economics works

If you theories were valid we would see much lower bands of economic output.. especially in this cycle...

Which I have said since 2010, was going to be weak... but you guys are taking it to a much darker place...

41

_ 2016 May 30, 2:20pm

And that's the problem with your skewed narrative... you just want to count "bodies" employed versus reality on the ground.

I do feel sorry for a high school drop out working at Home Depot, or a non college educated America working at home depot and a non trade show Skill American working at home depot

But ...

They're working and if they were in a lot other countries they wouldn't be working at all...

42

_ 2016 May 30, 2:21pm

Back to the cute thesis

43

smaulgld 2016 May 30, 2:32pm

Back to the cute thesis

The chart you posted above shows those aged 25-54 have fewer part time jobs which makes sense given they are less attached to the labor force in general as the chart below shows:

This 25-54 age group is not working as much,
their incomes are not rising,
they have over a trillion in student loan debt (nearly half in default) and
new home prices are at all time highs, so fewer new homes are sold.

No amount of posting endless charts and ridicule will change that.

44

_ 2016 May 30, 2:39pm

There you go.. I wasn't referring to the high school kid or non-educated... but you refuse to read and learn.

Who do think is working at these jobs

College 2015 Grad median pay is 48K-54K...

45

_ 2016 May 30, 2:42pm

See the %, do you now get why I find this thesis to be strange

It moves with employment to population metrics

Look at the % gaps, I mean you're basically saying America is a failure because

The last remaining high school drop outs, high school grads, and those who are drug addicts and criminal active aren't working full time jobs?

Because the rest are working

Again, you guys are versed in the data and now you're making my points for me

This is all you guys got about how pathetic America is ..

Try harder than that ....

46

_ 2016 May 30, 2:48pm

Back to the cute thesis, look at all these job openings???

Where the hell are these last remaining Americans not working??

Might it be that prime age labor force growth has something to do it...

47

smaulgld 2016 May 30, 5:40pm

There are many EXPERIENCE workers at Home Depot (business people, experience contractors, etc.) who are working there

I know a few-they don't make it to a chart

48

smaulgld 2016 May 31, 3:32am

The question remains unanswered. New home sales remain abysmal. Why? If there is a supposed roaring economy with full employment and rising incomes why hasn't that translated into new home sales?

Nothing to do with no wage growth, massive student loan debt overhand/defaults, low labor participation rate among 25-54 year olds and all time new home prices?

49

_ 2016 May 31, 5:17am

massive student loan debt

Majority of Student loan debt is under 14K

30% of all student loan debt are from college drop outs and the average balance their is 9K

40% of total Student loan debt are from Grad students and trust me on this ... you don't need to worry about Grad Students, they will be fine

50

Strategist 2016 May 31, 5:26am