patrick.net

AllTruth says

(Logan the permabull)

This is why ... reading is a good thing

Nazi didn't read... that was a problem

Remember, math, facts and data matter..

Jan 2016

As predictable as the Sun rising, the Drama last Friday sent the Recession Bears into over drive once again.

Well, time to man up, time stamp your 2016 Recession Call now.

I say no, can't have a Job Loss Recession or 2nd Great Recession as some have been calling ....while

- Fed rate hike cycle barely started ( No Inflation) to fight

- LEI is still tracking positive

- Unemployment claims are low ( Not over 300K) and you need to see 323K with breath, not just mining and oil companies.

Once you get falling LEI, Claims rising and Fed Rate Hike Cycle going, then you have something, but it's not there yet

#Economics
#Investing
#Housing

2016 Economic Time Stamp Here, with my own model to know when the Recession Red Flag needs to be waived
http://loganmohtashami.com/2015/12/28/2016-housing-economic-predictions/

https://patrick.net/Time+Stamp+your+2016+Recession+Call+Now

Ironman says

Nope, MORE straws are being piled on the camels back, it's only a matter of time

I have changed my mind on that. Logan makes the point that the US will never pay off it's debt and the US is the reserve currency of the world. So the debt is irrelevant.

If the US loses the reserve currency status that will be the end of the US.

But that is not going to happen for the foreseeable future. The US does have the biggest GDP and that is not going to change overnight.

I am concerned about the erosion of the American work ethic and culture jeopardizing the US economy.
No doubt this is from the encroachment of government on the market place.

OTOH the encroachment of the military on the American and other economies is equally disruptive.

indigenous says

I have changed my mind on that. Logan makes the point that the US will never pay off it's debt and the US is the reserve currency of the world. So the debt is irrelevant.

If the US loses the reserve currency status that will be the end of the US.

Even countries that do not have the luxury of being reserve currencies, pile on debt for ever.

indigenous says

If the US loses the reserve currency status that will be the end of the US.

This is the thesis that I call

Can the Boy band economies over lap the U.S.

You have to be kidding me.. that's my reply to all the Anti American Bears ...

Euro, Yuan, Yen... really.... that is the best case to bring down America

Rag tag economies with massive demographic issues

I hope all of you are alive for the next 20 years to realize how worthless your economic rants are...

Rookies...

Our wealth is bigger than all the countries total GDP

Spare me. Why is England NOT the ruler of the world anymore? Things change. China is setup to take over that position at some point.

indigenous says

Why is England NOT the ruler of the world anymore? Things change

England didn't have the mass immigration boom over the decades like America has... it's an island ... limits

We own this world and we are about to flex our muscles when the world gets very very old at the same time

We are the biggest economic freak of nature in history and it's due to our people!

For now, but if the government overreach continues sooner or later the perpetual money machine will come to an end.

MMR says

Ironically, both of those guys hate him.

I don't buy it as I don't buy the rants on this page.... you people give away how smart you're by certain words... fake ranting for the sake of conversation.. that I get why

On another note... Reading

Today's Job Report and the Reality Of The Job Market In America ( Education Matters)

https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/09/02/united-states-job-market-reality/

indigenous says

OTOH the encroachment of the military on the American and other economies is equally disruptive.

Healthcare being 18% of gdp is a problem because it cannibalized other sectors. On an aggregate level, sick people can't produce

MMR says

Healthcare being 18% of gdp is a problem because it cannibalized other sectors. On an aggregate level, sick people can't produce

Government encroachment.

JOLTS-overview

"In summary, the economic cycle is getting old and we are going into, possibly, the longest economic expansion on record. The one caveat is that employment cost is rising and if prices can’t be raised or revenue doesn’t grow, then the expansion may slow. I would mark this a key data line to look at moving forward into 2017-2019."

Your JOLTs chart is my favorite, Logan. What do you use to determine if rising labor/wages is likely to translate into consumer demand at this late point in the cycle? Consumer demand is more important to me than corporate profit margins considering how much free cash corporations are sitting on.

Ironman says

hopefully mommy and daddy will help bail him out

Not gonna happen.
Mom and dad are investing a ton of money in a hotel in Florida.
The only state so far that has a confirmed case of an infected mosquito.

Wonder which industry will suffer the most?

Also, there is a MAJOR sea rise issue in Florida. I have some contractor buddies and they are being run off their feet repairing water damage. Last time I was there, about 2 years ago, one of the major boulevards in Miami had huge sections underwater. No storm... just underwater.

"I have swampland in Florida I will sell you cheeeep" has never been so true.

neplusultra57 says

What do you use to determine if rising labor/wages

ECI wage inflation tracker data ..

Economics is equilibrium.. real wages are at all time highs, the median income is taken out off context because it's tied to employment to population metrics

Shorter term duration 3 month and 6 month are picking up rather than the 12 month tied to claims and jolts

Logan Mohtashami says

Economics is equilibrium.. real wages are at all time highs, the median income is taken out off context because it's tied to employment to population metrics

How do you figure? That chart says the that all time highs were in 2003

indigenous says

How do you figure? That chart says the that all time highs were in 2003

This is Wage growth 3 month and it's always growing

One of the biggest mistakes I see people do and this comes from a lot media sites as well

YoY Growth is not a total growth chart...

This is the real wage growth X out Transfer payments

This was always the case... You're all programmed to believe other wise and the chart above shows constant growth

I mean to me it's crazy to think this way but I can see how people can be confused because they see a lower trend data curve and they believe it has gone negative

This is why it's always better to listen to data miners than ideological ranters

Give me a break, I glanced at that chart.

Point taken though.

Maybe it is better to listen to both. Because there are lies, damn lies, and then their is statistics.

indigenous says

Give me a break, I glanced at that chart.

I see this everywhere and a lot bears try to make this out to be something that it isn't... Huge problem for them in this cycle and it really falls back to their lack of education in terms of reading data properly.

For example home prices are always growing post 2012 but the YoY growth is less that the peak year and that doesn't mean that prices are declining

That is the best way to explain because people get confused all the time with that

They really believe wages are lower than in 2000, not even close, it's even a real stupid thesis to even have.

But People get confused about the median income chart all the time, even so called experts

My biggest mistake in talking about wages before is that I should have explained in more detail that chart above ... I assumed people had a better grasp of how demographic economics work and that was a big no no ... will never make that mistake ever again

Logan's cool.

indigenous says

Which states are going to be growing the fastest?

Sure as hell isn't California.

So your a Hirsute Annalist now?

MMR says

Which states are going to be growing the fastest?

The fastest job growth is in the South and West -- but not in California or Texas

Tenpoundbass says

So your a Hirsute Annalist now?

In all honesty

A lot of these sales and starts estimate from economist and analyst where way to bullish early on the cycle. So people have taken notice to my work over the years and the slow and steady call on demand and housing starts.

This cycle

- soft demographics
- No more exotic loans
- major delay in household formation

So, not that it's almost 2017, we are getting near my 20202-2024 time frame, so this cycle was a whiff for the more extreme bullish people, so they wanted a perspective from the people that called the sales/start demand curve properly.

Plus, the recessions bears also need a lesson in economics as well.. Between the PMI Bears, Inflation Bears, QE bears, etc etc, we have never seen an economic cycle that has had more terrible recession calls than this one.

A lot Anti Fed, Pro Gold, Extreme left and right wing thinking, very unsophisticated economic theories.

Break down economic equilibrium in relationship with to housing economics

So far, only on this panel.. I really want a shot a Anti Federal Reserve Panel group! Either way I am going to have a say with that group.. Can't wait! Plus First time in Texas too

HOSTED BY

TONI MOSS, CEO, AMERICATALYST LLC and EUROCATALYST BV

TIM SKEET, Senior Advisor, INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS ASSOCIATION | ICMA

FEATURING

DOUG BENDT, SVP of Research and Product Development, RENTRANGE

MARK FLEMING, SVP and Chief Economist, FIRST AMERICAN FINANCIAL CORPORATION

LOGAN MOHTASHAMI, Senior Loan Manager, AMC LENDING GROUP

ALLAN WEISS, Founder and Chief Executive Officer, WEISS RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH

http://www.americatalyst.com/content/2016-americatalyst-fast-forward