« First « Previous Comments 29 - 49 of 49 Search these comments
Why is England NOT the ruler of the world anymore? Things change
England didn't have the mass immigration boom over the decades like America has... it's an island ... limits
We own this world and we are about to flex our muscles when the world gets very very old at the same time
We are the biggest economic freak of nature in history and it's due to our people!
For now, but if the government overreach continues sooner or later the perpetual money machine will come to an end.
Ironically, both of those guys hate him.
I don't buy it as I don't buy the rants on this page.... you people give away how smart you're by certain words... fake ranting for the sake of conversation.. that I get why
On another note... Reading
Today's Job Report and the Reality Of The Job Market In America ( Education Matters)
https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/09/02/united-states-job-market-reality/
OTOH the encroachment of the military on the American and other economies is equally disruptive.
Healthcare being 18% of gdp is a problem because it cannibalized other sectors. On an aggregate level, sick people can't produce
Healthcare being 18% of gdp is a problem because it cannibalized other sectors. On an aggregate level, sick people can't produce
Government encroachment.
JOLTS-overview
"In summary, the economic cycle is getting old and we are going into, possibly, the longest economic expansion on record. The one caveat is that employment cost is rising and if prices can’t be raised or revenue doesn’t grow, then the expansion may slow. I would mark this a key data line to look at moving forward into 2017-2019."
Your JOLTs chart is my favorite, Logan. What do you use to determine if rising labor/wages is likely to translate into consumer demand at this late point in the cycle? Consumer demand is more important to me than corporate profit margins considering how much free cash corporations are sitting on.
hopefully mommy and daddy will help bail him out
Not gonna happen.
Mom and dad are investing a ton of money in a hotel in Florida.
The only state so far that has a confirmed case of an infected mosquito.
Wonder which industry will suffer the most?
Also, there is a MAJOR sea rise issue in Florida. I have some contractor buddies and they are being run off their feet repairing water damage. Last time I was there, about 2 years ago, one of the major boulevards in Miami had huge sections underwater. No storm... just underwater.
"I have swampland in Florida I will sell you cheeeep" has never been so true.
What do you use to determine if rising labor/wages
ECI wage inflation tracker data ..
Economics is equilibrium.. real wages are at all time highs, the median income is taken out off context because it's tied to employment to population metrics
Shorter term duration 3 month and 6 month are picking up rather than the 12 month tied to claims and jolts
Economics is equilibrium.. real wages are at all time highs, the median income is taken out off context because it's tied to employment to population metrics
How do you figure? That chart says the that all time highs were in 2003
How do you figure? That chart says the that all time highs were in 2003
This is Wage growth 3 month and it's always growing
One of the biggest mistakes I see people do and this comes from a lot media sites as well
YoY Growth is not a total growth chart...
This is the real wage growth X out Transfer payments
This was always the case... You're all programmed to believe other wise and the chart above shows constant growth
I mean to me it's crazy to think this way but I can see how people can be confused because they see a lower trend data curve and they believe it has gone negative
This is why it's always better to listen to data miners than ideological ranters
Give me a break, I glanced at that chart.
Point taken though.
Maybe it is better to listen to both. Because there are lies, damn lies, and then their is statistics.
Give me a break, I glanced at that chart.
I see this everywhere and a lot bears try to make this out to be something that it isn't... Huge problem for them in this cycle and it really falls back to their lack of education in terms of reading data properly.
For example home prices are always growing post 2012 but the YoY growth is less that the peak year and that doesn't mean that prices are declining
That is the best way to explain because people get confused all the time with that
They really believe wages are lower than in 2000, not even close, it's even a real stupid thesis to even have.
But People get confused about the median income chart all the time, even so called experts
My biggest mistake in talking about wages before is that I should have explained in more detail that chart above ... I assumed people had a better grasp of how demographic economics work and that was a big no no ... will never make that mistake ever again
Which states are going to be growing the fastest?
The fastest job growth is in the South and West -- but not in California or Texas
So your a Hirsute Annalist now?
In all honesty
A lot of these sales and starts estimate from economist and analyst where way to bullish early on the cycle. So people have taken notice to my work over the years and the slow and steady call on demand and housing starts.
This cycle
- soft demographics
- No more exotic loans
- major delay in household formation
So, not that it's almost 2017, we are getting near my 20202-2024 time frame, so this cycle was a whiff for the more extreme bullish people, so they wanted a perspective from the people that called the sales/start demand curve properly.
Plus, the recessions bears also need a lesson in economics as well.. Between the PMI Bears, Inflation Bears, QE bears, etc etc, we have never seen an economic cycle that has had more terrible recession calls than this one.
A lot Anti Fed, Pro Gold, Extreme left and right wing thinking, very unsophisticated economic theories.
Break down economic equilibrium in relationship with to housing economics
So far, only on this panel.. I really want a shot a Anti Federal Reserve Panel group! Either way I am going to have a say with that group.. Can't wait! Plus First time in Texas too
HOSTED BY
TONI MOSS, CEO, AMERICATALYST LLC and EUROCATALYST BV
TIM SKEET, Senior Advisor, INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MARKETS ASSOCIATION | ICMA
FEATURING
DOUG BENDT, SVP of Research and Product Development, RENTRANGE
MARK FLEMING, SVP and Chief Economist, FIRST AMERICAN FINANCIAL CORPORATION
LOGAN MOHTASHAMI, Senior Loan Manager, AMC LENDING GROUP
ALLAN WEISS, Founder and Chief Executive Officer, WEISS RESIDENTIAL RESEARCH
http://www.americatalyst.com/content/2016-americatalyst-fast-forward
« First « Previous Comments 29 - 49 of 49 Search these comments
#IronAssPounder