patrick.net

Heraclitusstudent says

Logan is just projecting trends on graphs

Exactly right, I am projecting living human being graphs that have never showed any indication of a deflationary spiral

Great Recession was a household debt bubble on the most over leveraged household debt on non capacity owning debt.

This can never happen again with our regulations in place not to mention you can't create a debt bubble in a light demographic patch.

This cycle might last another 4 years, which means we will be in a expansion still when we are supposedly going to crumble has a country in 2018

If we didn't have the 90 million M's you could come up with a deflationary spiral thesis

However, that isn't the case....

Census live population website
http://www.census.gov/popclock/?intcmp=home_pop

Let me get this straight the guy who says deflation "never going to happen, I've got charts", posts two graphs showing a trend line hitting 0% based on falling inflation from 1980 on. (The graph shows, if the trend continues, it touching 0 in late 2016 early 2017 ... for those that can draw a line.)

Edit: Also for those playing along at home, second graph, mark WWI and WWII on those graphs. As the saying goes, "history doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme."

Rew says

That's why they will vote Trump.

Southern and Mid west Conservative Whites who always vote Republican are voting for Trump and he is still going to lose big to one of the most hated politicians of all time

For the first time Republicans are losing educated White Men

GOP with White College Men
'60 +32
'68 +17
'76 +22
'80 +32
'88 +30
'92 +10
'96 +21
'00 +23
'04 +20
'08 +14
'12 +21
'16 -2 (post 10/6 avg)

Rew says

That's not how Japan's deflation began (asset bubble pop made on paper wealth disappear), nor is it how Germany is hitting deflation now.

Both are two oldest countries for a mature economy of size

You guys should pick on Europe and Japan and then some of your radical deflationary thesis would make sense

If Trump follows through with appointment of judges that uphold the constitution he will limit his own authoritarian powers significantly. So the talk about dictatorship is unwarranted and should he saved for a Clinton presidency.

What if Hillary shoots down a Russia plane? She's shown absolutely no grasp of cascading effects while Secretary of State, or her Iraq War vote.

Our next Secretary of State if illary wins the election.

Hillary's no more likely to start a war than Trump. He sounds like a dove one day and a hawk the next. It all depends on his mood and which way the wind is blowing. Russia doesn't want a war anymore than we do. She's worked with Putin before, and will likely do fine in negotiating with him again. She at least understands that the outcome hinges on getting support among allies in Europe to sanction Russia again more-so than pulling out her dick, squinting her eyes, and having a showdown with Putin. Putin is taking advantage of the fact that Obama is a lame duck to flex his muscles.

Thunderlips Russian Agent 0069 says

Ah, it's when elections are certified now.

I think that this was pretty well understood at the time. Wallace prefaced the question by saying that Trump has been claiming that the election is rigged. Wallace wanted Trump to say if he would be complaining about a rigged election and instigating his supporters to reject the results. Last I checked, results, means final results. Here's a video of the question. Watch Hillary's face light up as she watches him step in shit. The followup question states that one of the prides of this country is the peaceful transition of power, because the election loser always concedes to the will of the people no matter how hard fought the campaign. Even with that as context, Trump will not say that he will accept the election results. Hillary can hardly contain herself while she lets him hang himself.

www.youtube.com/embed/cP0G4vJ5OMw

Deaths from lifting up 1000000%

It's going to be a Twatocracy. That is, when it isn't a ChickWithDickocracy.

YesYNot All Pussy are Rigged says

I think that this was pretty well understood at the time. Wallace prefaced the question by saying that Trump has been claiming that the election is rigged. Wallace wanted Trump to say if he would be complaining about a rigged election and instigating his supporters to reject the results. Last I checked, results, means final results.

Most people don't think of a 2000 Contested Election when they hear "Results". They think of staying up late Tuesday Night and having a winner announced. There is no "The Word Results uttered in a Debate Always Refer to the absolute final count weeks later" rule in debates.

It was a Pre-suasian Attempt to bait Trump into giving an unqualified yes, so when we go to the 2nd Wednesday in October because Ohio and/or Florida tallies are within a hair's breath, slightly favoring Hillary, the Oligarch Media can press Trump to accept it as it is and not fight. And if he does fight and a recount shows he won, say he went back on a promise before he even became President.

Daddy says Thank you.

Rew says

Ranina practicing the artful Trump comeback.

Rew says

You would get it with Clinton or Trump, as neither has anything on the table to address it. Closest to actually looking like they might do something in this ballpark was Bernie.

Bernie was a hand out on steroids guy, that doesn't get economy moving. It works in short term, long term it's just debt and next generation is fucked paying the bill. We can't do that. We either grow market share, or we go not here nor there (like we are now). What I liked about Bernie is that he was honest, a man of the people. I didn't agree with his methods, but I liked him. He had the courage and heart to speak his mind, and work for the people of this country.

errc says

thanks to Trump voters. There are real issues that intelligent, free thinkers are prioritizing this cycle.

Having these two clauses even in the same county is really funny. Thanks for that.

errc says

The Clintons and their voters, ensconced in hate,

LOL You're a little bit deaf, aren't you? Huh? Never mind.

I don't see the big deal, either. Questioning the results isn't a declaration of war. Refusing to concede while things are looked into isn't a power transfer by force. There have been unprecedented leaks about all kinds of crazy stuff. People have admitted to plots to commit electorate fraud in this very election. This isn't a delusion. It may not make any difference if the spread is big enough, but it should still be investigated and the conspirators punished.

There is a problem everyone seems to miss. The next president could be a Democrat or Republican.
How can this slip by people?

Election fraud has always been a strong part of American history. Remember that it's election fraud, not voter fraud. It's not the voters committing fraud. It's the government officials and election personnel.

It's pretty sad that America is one of the worst examples of "American" values. Most western nations are more American than America.

When Obama took office in 2009 employer-provided premiums cost $13,375. Today they are $18,142. Thanks, Obama.

Back before Obama care ramped up, the monthly premium for a family of 4 was around $300-350 I believe.

Last time I checked, it was closer to a grand.

What a joke.

Just to give you idea of the income levels in scale and why a growing prime age labor force with this much income power can't have a deflationary collapse

per-capita adjustments

Newspaper columnist and TV pundit Charles Krauthammer is a bought and paid for right-wing shill. He has no principle except for pandering to and serving the rich and powerful through his relentless propaganda work. CK complaining about a "campaign of seemingly boundless cynicism" must qualify as the ultimate irony. Or is he just being sarcastic about himself? Without even knowing it?

The Republican party has lost control of the masses they were trying to fool into thinking that the Republican overlords cared about them. It has worked since 1966 or so, I think (keyword: southern strategy). That's 50 years of successful agitprop.

PS: A bit unsure what the photo is all about. I might agree that CK is the seed of satan, but still.

Oh the Kraphammer, his schtick is saying negative shit. He doesn't support anybody. He hasn't muttered a posttive word in his whole career. EVER!

Tenpoundbass says

Oh the Kraphammer, his schtick is saying negative shit

Tenpoundbass says

He hasn't muttered a posttive word in his whole career. EVER!

So you love him, right ?

The world is bigger than Northern California

I know you guys carry over economic theories based on the lives on people in San Jose and San Francisco

That's the worst way to look at Marco data trends when carrying into the thesis of a Great Deflationary collapse when consumption levels are at all time highs

We are not Japan ... a lot American bears both conservative and liberal keep on bringing up the Japan thesis with us... it's not even close

We don't run our entire economy on devaluing the Yen

Tenpoundbass says

He hasn't muttered a posttive word in his whole career. EVER!

CK is bitter that he didn't get to marry into a wealthy family, like his younger brother(*), NY Times columnist and socialite Thomas Friedman. Therefore, Tommy-boy gets to play the happy-go-lucky open-minded Republican, while Charlie gets to be the stern disciplinarian.

(*) Not really, but they seem like a good pair

justme says

CK is bitter that he didn't get to marry into a wealthy family,

Or maybe he's just bitter because he hasn't been able to jerk off for decades.

Even with all that

2016

highest home sales, highest mortgage buyers

Back to 1998 levels but still growing in a light demographic patch

Disposable income continues to increase in real terms.

https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2016/09/30/real-disposable-income-per-capita-in-august-remains-unchanged

I've seriously considered quitting my job, and going back to full time self-employment because of all the healthcare nonsense.

Reason being, you can shelter the majority of your income in pre-tax investments and business write off's - claim a total income of like $15,000 for the year, and get free health care, thanks to our current dumbass president.

Where as before the obamacare mess, any small biz owner could afford a MUCH BETTER policy than the garbage offered now, for like $300/mo.

Even the Philippines ditched Obamacare

Charles Krauthammer was against, vaguely supportive, and now against Trump again. He closes considering Paul Ryan or Ben Sasse, two Country Club GOPe elites.

And their long record of successful leadership, hahaha. He's pretty much been in the same boat since he ditched being a democrat, he's an Establishment Cheerleader and has been for years.

If Americans haven't been made Cynical by the Iraq War, shoddy Katrina Response, the Financial Crisis, the Bailout, the failure to re-regulate Wall Street, the sleepwalking to WW3 in Syria, they were hopeless.

I'm glad Americans are cynical: We have the worst elites in the world, enervated and weak and stupidly callous. Whenever I think of the Elite, I think of pompous, stupid Tom Friedman. They need a wake-up call.

I'm glad we have gotten past denial, anger, bargaining and are on to depression. Come on, she'll be pretty much exactly like her husband and we got through the 1990s just fine - good economy, no stupid wars. Here's what I expect from President Clinton (who at this point we can say will surely win - HUGE SIGH OF RELIEF):

1) Two or three solid supreme court appointments. Look at Ginsberg and Breyer for how they will likely decide cases
2) Some positive executive signing statements
3) Solid appointments to federal bureaucracies (whom the Republicans will try their best to sabotage)
4) Absolutely no legislation of any kind. The Republicans are in full scorched earth mode and will remain so until/unless the American people completely disempower them like has happened in California

Ironman says

Approved hikes 93%: New Mexico

WTF????????????????????????????

It's all Obama's fault!!!

This country needs an enema and Trumpligula is the jackal narcissist to get it done!

bdrasin says

good economy, no stupid wars

Slowly deteriorating economy, possibly recession in 2017 to get it out of the way early before reelection

Stupid wars

If Hillary gets in we can expect record levels of fraud.