patrick.net

Hey Logan,
We are planning a meet of all So Cal Patnetters. Dec 10. Please read Turtle Dove's original post.

It's all Obama's fault!!!

indigenous says

Not that you will read this:

Demographics and natural economic equilibrium is the story here and around the world not interest rates

Consumption levels are at all time highs, domestic investment isn't in terms of rate of growth

This is a natural process for older countries, their investment are much smaller in terms of economic output the older they get

Unless they're building out for a growing labor force

Building out for a growing labor force, consumption by younger people is the most powerful factor of demographics

Logan Mohtashami says

This is a natural process for older countries, their investment are much smaller in terms of economic output the older they get

Where is this from?

indigenous says

Where is this from?

Me

Strategist says

Dec 10. Please read Turtle Dove's original post.

Thumbs up

Logan Mohtashami says

Me

It would be nice to see some backup on this.

He might be an asshole, but he has a good grasp on how Americans actually feel about the issues. Not that he sympathizes or anything, but he understands the groundswell of public opinion that drives large political movements across America.

indigenous says

It would be nice to see some backup on this.

I just wrote it :-)

As a demographic guy, that is the number one thing I believe in

Labor force growth and the consumption vs domestic investment model.

This thesis is the main reason I said housing starts would never reach 1.5 Million in this cycle as everyone was calling for

https://loganmohtashami.com/2016/09/20/housing-starts-roof-being-tested/

All the housing people earlier in the cycle where using 50 year moving average but weren't adjusting to demographics

Logan Mohtashami says

As a demographic guy, that is the number one thing I believe in

Harry Dent just came out with a new book, he is predicting the apocalypse.

indigenous says

Harry Dent just came out with a new book, he is predicting the apocalypse

He uses demographics to sell Books and his work is based on a zero sum game where everything is a bubble

Why I pick on him a lot, he isn't a true demographic guy in the sense.

NO it does not, overtime politcal lies creates the urge for a bloody revolt

Logan, it's been predicted that technology will be replacing 50% of all jobs within 10-15 years. I don't think anyone can stop progress but what do we do about all those people that won't have a job? Will there be enough new jobs to offset it? Any thoughts?

Be greedy when everyone is fearful and be fearful when everyone is greedy.

I see a lot of greed good time, let's party it's all great out there kind of mood.

I feel fearful now!

I was pretty greedy in 2009. Now I'm scared as hell.

SubOink says

Logan, it's been predicted that technology will be replacing 50% of all jobs within 10-15 years.

Every decade a group of people that says, technology will replace all the jobs in America

Today, the U.S. has 155 Million working Americans and 2016 had the highest job openings print ever recorded in human history in all sector

Laws of demographic turnover, makes the entire discussion mute

It's a flawed thesis from the start, always

For technology displacement there has been millions and millions of new sector jobs created as well

The Automation BS, once used to rationalize the disempowerment of Unions as 'inevitable" is now being used to bullshit away outsourcing.

It's better to have a factory automate, going from 500 employees to 100, but those remaining jobs being well paying engineering and mechanic jobs, than to have no jobs at all.

Mind this data for you all...

Manufacturing is where the displacement technology has really happened ... majority of productivity gains

Today Manufacturing employs 11.3 million people 4th biggest sector in the U.S. but it's less than 9% of the total workforce

I total get why you guys are simply paranoid about the deflationary collapse

It's not your fault to a degree, no training in economic data, so you take cult like variables and push ideological agenda into it

This only works on those who don't track data at all...

Well it's true, not everyone can be good at everything. I mean, even many top notch economists suck at their job. It's staggering how often economists are wrong and still are able to maintain meaningful employment. Maybe they are just biased and in the propaganda business.

Economics is far less of a science than medical or nutritional sciences. Economics is about as scientific as sociology, political science or psychology.

Go buy a bunker if you're this scarred

Goodness... stop with this collapse thesis, its terrible

Logan--

You are legend in your own mind. And only there.

Show me one black swan... that didn't have an economic backdrop explaining the causation

I dare you

I double dare any to do this

Rookies, just simple rookies, you have no training in economics and it shows, even with 70 years of data you're cramming a collapse thesis in less than 18 months

I can't make this stuff up

Logan Mohtashami says

Rookies, just simple rookies, you have no training in economics and it shows ...

You don't see the gorilla do you?

Logan Mohtashami says

Show me one black swan... that didn't have an economic backdrop explaining the causation

Yes, but then I can come up with a reason to explain anything after the fact. "Uhhhhh, it was more sellers than buyers." It's funny to see journalists scramble for reasons for market behavior.

I'm not knocking your reliance on data. That's commendable. And the cool thing is you can change your mind about which data to pay the most attention to after the fact, when the market has a big swing you didn't predict.

You might as well be an Elliot Wave theorist.

Logan Mohtashami says

Show me one black swan... that didn't have an economic backdrop explaining the causation

Show me an option pricing model that doesn't price the way out of the money options in a way that doesn't fit a normal probability distribution. This is becasue the probability of an event of magnitude greater than 3.5 standard deviations from the mean happens more frequently that the math predicts.

A "Black Swan" event is a reference to statistics. It's not about whether you think you can come up with an explanation for what happened after the fact.

marcus says

A "Black Swan" event is a reference to statistics. It's not about whether you think you can come up with an explanation for what happened after the fact.

Exactly

You can't

It's Ghost economic theory

and even if there was such a event, it would be meaningless to the greater good of humans

That's your last grasp hope a deflationary collapse in a strong demographic patch

Wrong country to bet against folks.... Don't you all leave before us Data Miners smoke out your radical economic views in the next decade

This is America.... Not Europe or Japan

Logan Mohtashami says

Today we have 155 Million working people

43 year lows in unemployment claims

You cannot have this ...
http://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2014/ted_20140423.htm

While you also have this ...
http://www.mybudget360.com/cost-of-living-compare-1975-2015-inflation-price-changes-history/

Demand is going to continue to go down for non-essentials.

Edit: and for those trying to cling to middle class dream, of single family home, a kid or two, with good schools and some leasure time ... it's getting extremely difficult. There is an overabundance of labor for good paying jobs.

Logan--

Why do you insist on portraying people who see potential problems in the foundation of the US economy as America haters? Honesty isn't hating.

Nobody has a problem with you using data--that is commendable. The problem is that your reliance on demographics leads you to poor conclusions. And you ignore the clear warning signs, even when they are huge NEON signs. Your mind is closed and you find data to fit your narrative rather than using data to guide your opinion.

It's sad.

Rew says

Rookie who knows that he doesn't know is almost certainly to make more money in markets that economics professor who doesn't know that he doesn't know.

You sound like the second one Logan

Tampajoe says

US economy as America haters? Honesty isn't hating.

Because a deflationary collapse is non sense

You're left wing ideological people from your sentence structures outside of Strat and Ironman

Create false narrative conservative and liberal economic ideological agenda discussions

Theories are terrible, ....

Only reason someone would make up extreme left wing and right wing ideological theories is because they don't know that the middle is strong

He's no professor.

Worry about Europe or Japan... this U.S. collapse in 18 months is silly

Who said 18 months?

It's hard to give an exact timeframe because the Federal Reserve will fight it as long as they can. But if inequality starts rising again, it's a matter of when, not if.

Reading this thread, one might come to the conclusion that Logan predicted the most recent crash. And patnetters just don't get, what with lack of education on the matter.

Funny, because some of us have been around here for well over a decade, and prior to housing peaking in 06, this site was nothing but "what will happen once this whole fraud fueled bubble crashes?"

But dat demographics tho

Logan Mohtashami says

You lost this battle before it ever started because you doubted this country and it's people

American exceptionalism will not avert natural disasters or suddenly right major economic imbalances. Stop with the "Anti-patriotic, you are betting against America" bull-shit. This has nothing to do with how flag wavy someone is.

Core PCE since 90s:
http://www.investing.com/economic-calendar/core-pce-price-index-905

This is not the spending you are looking for.

Yes, per above, the majority of families need two solid incomes now to be middle class.

Logan Mohtashami says

No over investment thesis outside of commercial real estate

Money flooding to safe shelters like bonds, and wow what a market run up in stocks, right? right?

Logan Mohtashami says

155 Million plus workers are simply going to stop spending

You think I need a smart phone and to go to Starbucks every morning? You think I need to buy those Chinese plastic toys at Target for my sons? consumers will spend, but it will just be health, housing, and food ... remarkably ... the things that have stayed consistently expensive or held value. Funny that.

Rew says

Core PCE since 90s:

Exactly and consumption is at all time highs, you just made my point

Dollar strong makes our imports cheaper

Service inflation inflation always rises here

Come on guys, you're better that this, this is kids economic theory on a deflationary collapse

I am sure you know how currency and commodities work