patrick.net

Lol, great chart. Don't think I've seen that one before.

You know as usual, this will get shit on? I guess people expect perfection immediately. Things are good for you here if you're not an idiot. We'll wait for the idiots as they start to wake up.

WookieMan says

great chart.

I have about 25 folders of charts, one for each sector, all updated daily. My most favorite one is The World Is Awesome Folder, that I always save for my Anti Central Bank and MMT friends.

Logan Mohtashami says

all updated daily

Do you use Tableau connected to your databases?

Solid effort by the way. All great stuff

CBOEtrader says

Tableau connected to your databases?

No, its almost all government data outside a few sectors that get the reports from the industry itself, so I read the reports and the charts are easy to upload.

Logan Mohtashami says

so I read the reports and the charts are easy to upload.

You update all these manually? Holy shit man thats dedication. I used to scrape publicly databases w Python, then save info in Sql, and connect into Tableau for automated updating for trading charts like this. In practice this may be too much work

CBOEtrader says

thats dedication.

Its a lot easier now than 10 years ago, all government data agencies have twitter accounts and upload the data on release. BLS, DOL, Census, etc etc Social media productivity

Is there a central hub that lists the various govt data agencies?

Could be a good resource to save that link if you want to share?

https://twitter.com/BLS_gov BLS

https://twitter.com/uscensusbureau Census

These two are the big ones

Logan Mohtashami says

Love it. Facts speak for themselves.
Democracies succeed. Communism, dictators, and religions fail.
Science education succeeds, No education, or religious education fails.
...
It's so simple.

so were you all in on Australian real estate?

deepcgi says

so were you all in on Australian real estate?

Ticker symbol MASI

As always, economic cycles and business cycles move together, my inversion call for 2018 is only one piece in a bigger puzzle on when this cycle ends but as always the markets will get ahead of the economic data

Irony of this cycle we are going to have a hat trick here, and maybe under 3 different administrations

- Longest job expansion ever, 94 months (2nd best ever was 48 months)

- Longest bull market ever, ( subject to interpretation) of course but on a duration time-frame not a % return we got that this last week

- Longest economic expansion ever, July of 2019

When the next recession comes and in time it will, don't make the mistake the extreme left and right make every day they breath... it will not be the end of the America and now we have the growing prime age labor force

I'm in utter shock at this point. Comment 17 and there's not someone, without knowledge, taking a dump on something actually researched. @Patrick - we might be moving in the right direction. Good stuff.

WookieMan says

I'm in utter shock at this point

Here let me help you out.

Logan Mohtashami says

I like this graph, A lot.

But I have a question.

Isn't it evidence that Trump and his followers are wrong about globalization ? If GLOBALIZATION HAS BEEN THAT INCREDIBLY GOOD for the world, one might think that a little cognitive dissonance was in order for the diehard Trump fanboys.

Or is it that "we've done our part for the rest of the world, and now it's time to turn inward and save ourselves with some good old fashioned white nationalism ?"

I'm not sure the overall point. Globalization hasn't hurt me. We're a service sector economy and I do quite well it in it. Trump hasn't changed much that has come before him.

The only half way intelligent arguments I've heard in favor of Trump, even if I disagree completely, is that globalization has been a terrible for the U.S.. It has caused huge avg increases in standards of living in the poorest parts of the world, while our real incomes have stagnated.

It gets sillier. We offshore manufacturing etc,.etc, etc,.and Trump is supposedly making America great again by bringing manufacturing back.

Perhaps the growth has been in spite of the downsides: two world wars, many civil wars, and Socialist revolution that have killed millions, and yet, globally, the total wealth appears to raise everyone's standard of living. The biggest factor is the expansion of cheap energy, which has propelled all things forward. To continue the cycle, we MUST get energy and resources more cheaply - and that's from space. The next big revolution. A side benefit should be a decrease in pollution.

Then the issue will be dissipation of the energy - we will have to find a way to radiate the waste heat into space rather than add to the planet's heat burden from using energy. Or perhaps we will need this heat to postpone the next ice age (which is overdue.)

Hopefully by then, we will be a spacefaring civilization, and the earth will just be our cradle. This is far future stuff, but I like the possibilities....

marcus says

globalization has been a terrible for the U.S.

The country couldn't employ over 156,000,000 people if we were an old manufacturing country using technology based in from 1910-1960



Even with this above we are 2nd biggest manufacting country in the world and every nation even trade surplus Germany has had manufacturing jobs fall as a % of the population

Do you think the national debt will cause a major issue? We are 21 trillion and rising a trillion a year? Will we face a collapse? They say China is staring down a debt tsunami too?

lostand confused says

We are 21 trillion and rising a trillion a year?

We are a 125 Trillion dollar GDP and Financial asset country with the reserve currency of the world and the only major economy that has a growing prime age labor force. My bigger worry is that the dollar gets too strong

Japan's debt to GDP is running at 250% and they're borrowing at lower rates than us.

Once Germany, China, Japan, Europe has a major debt blow then we can talk about maybe the U.S. is next but most likely all $$$ come to our bond market and $ even with that

Why is China not on that manufacturing graph above?

Answer: because they are the ones who took it from the rest of the world.

Patrick says

Answer: because they are the ones who took it from the rest of the world.

China vs U.S. not even close, Even China is moving now to a service based economy, China's prime age labor force has already peaked, game is over, the next 30 years will be U.S. dominance over the world

156,000,000 Bad Ass Americans working and 6,800,000 job openings this year.... even manufacturing job openings are at 21st century highs

The reason why manufacturing output is so high in America, it's because of productivity of scale happened in manufacturing

So.... the entire US economy can be played like a cartoon using 20 folders of slides. 156million people working on paper looking bad ass. In reality, these are debt slaves with their income sucked away by rent seekers through house, tuition, medical care and they will never break free from this grotesque “bull market” enabled by the central banks. 156million people are creating wealth and wealth get transferred to the hands of the 1% of the 1% of the 1%.

What about data on Central Bank balance sheets before and after 2007/2008? How have the Central Bank balance sheets affected the markets and employment rates around the world since they jumped 10 years ago? And how has the wage of the middle class worker held up against the cost of his/her housing, travel, food, healthcare?

If you try to argue “data” with Logan, he will bury you, regardless which sector, time frame. The thing is he is trying to abstract reality into data sets and ignore what is real. What’s real is the country has NEVER been this divided, the 1% BS the 99% inequality, the extreme left and right even inflict violence upon each other and he talks about the country like a whole entity and ignore the hatred, anger, insecurity( house, tuition, health care ) and struggle of the mass which are what real people feel in real life. He tries to abstract all of those out and plays a set of cartoon and tell you everything is awesome.

Yes, the S&P is good and it SHOULD be after this much effort by the central banks at the cost of inequality and division of the countries within and internationally. And yet, S&P all time high has little or nothing to do with how people fret about their mortgages, health care and tuitions and for those bills, people drive uber and lyft, be one of the 156million bad ass working people which also include those being employed by Theranos, Tesla, SnapChat etc, those fraud or money losing businesses enabled by the central banks printing.

JZ says

In reality, these are debt slaves with their income sucked away by rent seekers through house, tuition, medical care and they will never break free from this grotesque “bull market” enabled by the central banks.

Medical care is the one department where I'm in agreement. Housing? Too many people mortgage their future to keep up with their friends, family and neighbors. Don't fall into the trap. It's a personal decision.

Tuition. No one NEEDS to go to college. In fact some of my better off and wealthier peers got into trades. Sure there are schools for learning them, but they're generally much cheaper then Liberal Arts junk degree schools.

Debt slaves have made their own bed and likely did it because they wanted to. My wife and I make good money, but I bet I live a substantially better life then say someone in the Bay Area who might make double the income but has triple/quadruple the living expenses. You can make good money anywhere in this country if you're not an idiot (not calling you one), get affordable housing and not be a debt slave. The decision is up to the person not to be a debt slave.

JZ says

In reality, these are debt slaves with their income sucked

Most student loan debt in this country is under 15K

Biggest student loan debt holders in America typically are those with the highest net income earners (excluding stock option capital gain citizens)

Those with very little education and very little skill set don't make money

JZ says

and struggle of the mass

JZ says

central banks printing.

deepcgi says

And how has the wage of the middle class worker held up against the cost of his/her housing, travel, food, healthcare?

Real average hourly wages have had their best decade in many because inflation has been low,



One thing I have tried over the year to explain to people with the data is that we do see a clear divergence between prime age labor force wage growth and the wage growth of those Americans 55 year and older which makes sense because you're well into your work life and your peak earning years are ares 46-54

So prime age labor force wage growth is running at 3.5% currently but 55 plus is 2% roughly trend for some time. We naturally have more older workers so it does taint the total data a tad but a reason why consumption is so healthy and debt expansion is relativity light outside of auto's is that people are making a lot more that the notion all Americans are poor thesis

HEYYOU says

Charts are like polls,only good at the time of publication.
How about all the brilliant patnetters telling me what will happen in a week or month.
What's the best investment on Oct. 1 2018?

OH! No one knows? Thanks anyway!

In the long run, it's always up. Now you know.

marcus says

I like this graph, A lot.

But I have a question.

Isn't it evidence that Trump and his followers are wrong about globalization ? If GLOBALIZATION HAS BEEN THAT INCREDIBLY GOOD for the world, one might think that a little cognitive dissonance was in order for the diehard Trump fanboys.

Or is it that "we've done our part for the rest of the world, and now it's time to turn inward and save ourselves with some good old fashioned white nationalism ?"

Trade is incredibly good for the world. Trump is in full support of zero trade barriers. He just won't support a one sided trade agreement.

Logan Mohtashami says

This is why everyone wants to come to America.........MONEY.

JZ says

So.... the entire US economy can be played like a cartoon using 20 folders of slides. 156million people working on paper looking bad ass. In reality, these are debt slaves with their income sucked away by rent seekers through house, tuition, medical care and they will never break free from this grotesque “bull market” enabled by the central banks. 156million people are creating wealth and wealth get transferred to the hands of the 1% of the 1% of the 1%.

JZ says

If you try to argue “data” with Logan, he will bury you, regardless which sector, time frame. The thing is he is trying to abstract reality into data sets and ignore what is real. What’s real is the country has NEVER been this divided, the 1% BS the 99% inequality, the extreme left and right even inflict violence upon each other and he talks about the country like a whole entity and ignore the hatred, anger, insecurity( house, tuition, health care ) and struggle of the mass which are what real people feel in real life. He tries to abstract all of those out and plays a set of cartoon and tell you everything is awesome.

JZ says

Yes, the S&P is good and it SHOULD be after this much effort by the central banks at the cost of inequality and division of the countries within and internationally. And yet, S&P all time high has little or nothing to do with how people fret about their mortgages, health care and tuitions and for those bills, people drive uber and lyft, be one of the 156million bad ass working people which also include those being employed by Theranos, Tesla, SnapChat etc, those fraud or money losing businesses enabled by the central banks printing.

It's just your perception reflecting myths.
The average person makes a lot more in America, than anywhere else. Ask any immigrant.
People who constantly have financial problems are those who don't know how to handle money.

Patrick says

Why is China not on that manufacturing graph above?

Answer: because they are the ones who took it from the rest of the world.

Logan Mohtashami says

China vs U.S. not even close, Even China is moving now to a service based economy, China's prime age labor force has already peaked, game is over, the next 30 years will be U.S. dominance over the world

156,000,000 Bad Ass Americans working and 6,800,000 job openings this year.... even manufacturing job openings are at 21st century highs

Manufacturing jobs as a percent of all jobs in the whole world will continue to decline as robots and machines replace humans. It happened in agriculture, and it will continue to happen in manufacturing.

Do you have a chart (s) that track(s) the wage/income increases/decreases, adjusted for inflation, of different quadrants of society? Something like lower, middle, upper middle and upper over say the last 20 or so years? and also how many individuals or what % of the country fall into each of those quadrants?

- Longest job expansion ever, 94 months (2nd best ever was 48 months)
DEEPEST job cuts ever in recent history.. A set up for above.

- Longest bull market ever, ( subject to interpretation) of course but on a duration time-frame not a % return we got that this last week
WORST recession in a long time, they named it something.

- Longest economic expansion ever, July of 2019
AFTER digging such a big hole, and creating QE into infinity, we should be seeing global expansion for years yet. It's possible that in 2020 when the feds goal of rate hikes is met somewhere around 2.5-3.0% that we might finally see some pullback in spending as debt obligations become more difficult to service. On the other hand, if fed debt continues unabated into its parabolic curve that may provide insurance against future recessions, government is largest employer. I was at my CU the other day and they had these signs up all over the place, only 18 days left. They were painstakingly printing new signs and putting them up every day. I ask wth is 18 days mean?

Oh, you have 18 days to roll all your CC debt balances into our CC and get x,y,z interest free, for xyz timeframe, blah, blah, blah. Then runup the other CC again.. ROLLOVER.

I think lol, I've got 18 days to go on one hell of a shopping spree or rack up some CC bills, fast etc. I think people are carrying a whole lot of CC debt. They are going to want to purge that at some point in the future. It's only a matter of time before the banks stop letting them keep rolling it over, banks don't necessarily collude but they do run in lockstep. It's just a matter of watching who the bag holders wind up being. I see small institution and CU falling for it so far. In part, greed. This is a great way to protect the larger banks next time a recession does come though. But .. what will be the spark? I don't see it yet, money is to flush right now.

2018
- RECORD HIGH DEBT ALL AROUND, PEOPLE, GOVERNMENT, RE, CC, College debt, etc. - spending power may see a crimp in coming years as wage growth in certain sectors doesn't see growth like it has - i.e. health care industry wage growth.

We know how that ends up from historical perspective. Upside: Debt doesn't matter anymore! Debt forgiveness is the new runner! It's all built on debt!, a must have! Dow 30,000 coming! Inflation running right next to it, frog simmering happily in his hot tub currently at lukewarm.