patrick.net

Trade renegotiation with China is still ongoing:

Sept. 7, 2018

President Trump threatened China with another round of punishing tariffs on Friday, saying he was prepared to tax essentially all Chinese goods imported into the United States if Beijing did not change its trade practices.

The threat comes as the administration prepares to move forward with another round of tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports, including many everyday consumer products like electronics and housewares.

The economy is great.
Consumer confidence is high.
People are buying a lot of stuff.
Most stuff is made in China.
Thus, the trade imbalance intensifies despite tariff pressure.
It’s not rocket science.

Hey Leon, what do you think of the 2.9% annualized wage gain, the 200,000+ jobs created in the US last month, or the 50,000+ Canadian jobs LOST last month?

#Winning

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Hey Leon, what do you think of the 2.9% annualized wage gain, the 200,000+ jobs created in the US last month, or the 50,000+ Canadian jobs LOST last month?

I hope the wage growth continues and isn't a one month blip. But 200K jobs is nothing to brag about--I would hope you would expect more.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Hey Leon, what do you think of the 2.9% annualized wage gain, the 200,000+ jobs created in the US last month, or the 50,000+ Canadian jobs LOST last month?

The war on Canada is clearly defeating China.

And why would I cheer a loss of jobs in Canada?

LeonDurham says

And why would I cheer a loss of jobs in Canada?

Because Trump doesn't like Trudeau. What other reason is necessary?

LastMan says

The war on Canada is clearly defeating China.

It is. The Canadians have been using NAFTA rules that are from before China was a major trading power, to help the Chinese circumvent US Tariffs by assembling from Chinese parts brought in from Vancouver, then exporting the finished product as a tariff-free "North American Product".

The new deal with Mexico just eliminated that with a 75-85% NAM parts rule, and Canada had better sign on to the new program or face the consequences.

LeonDurham says

And why would I cheer a loss of jobs in Canada?

Nothing about cheering - it's about "Who would win the Trade War". Right now the Trade War doesn't seem to be hurting the US with Job Expectations thoroughly beat to the positive last month. I thought a trade war would hurt the US?

A massive net importer can't really be hurt to bad in a trade war, but the net exporters can.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

what do you think of the 2.9% annualized wage gain

I think it great save for the fact it is being offset by increases in the CPI of.....2.9% July 2017 -July 2018 # treading water.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/10/us-cpi-july-2018.html

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

The new deal with Mexico just eliminated that with a 85% NAM parts rule, and Canada had better sign on to the new program or face the consequences.

From what I've read, Canada is good with the NAM parts rule and other automotive related aspects of the US / Mexico deal. Assuming that Canada is actually importing Chinese goods and exporting them to the US, it doesn't change the fact that China will still have a massive trade surplus with the US.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

A massive net importer can't really be hurt to bad in a trade war, but the net exporters can.

True, and Trump is well aware of our excellent leverage over the Chinese. If we stop buying their stuff, maybe we have to pay more for domestically made substitutes, but that also leads to new jobs in the US. They on the other hand face massive social unrest if their factories stop employing people.

Our factories have mostly been closed already because of the shift to China. Re-opening them is not such a loss.

rdm says

I think it great save for the fact it is being offset by increases in the CPI of.....2.9% July 2017 -July 2018 # treading water.

Is that worse than Obama's average net wage gain over a 1980-2000 base line?

LastMan says

From what I've read, Canada is good with the NAM parts rule and other automotive related aspects of the US / Mexico deal. Assuming that Canada is actually importing Chinese goods and exporting them to the US, it doesn't change the fact that China will still have a massive trade surplus with the US.

Nope, it was the biggest sticking point. But that's been apparently been replaced by Diary and Telecoms, which Trudeau says is Non-negotiable. It changes daily.

Here's an interesting short video by Ezra Levant on Trudeau and why he may have decided to pull a "I meant to do that" game. Not 100% in agreement, but some good facts and points here.
www.youtube.com/embed/_pI-9LRnvT0

Highlights: See the State Controlled Media defend Trudeau at all costs at the CBC and call his strategy "5D Chess"
See the Canadian Government try to explain away the Court's total ban on Pipeline Construction as a "Step Forward"

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Is that worse than Obama's average net wage gain over a 1980-2000 base line

I don't know but I was expecting Trump to MAGA and we get projected deficits in the trillions and no increase in the average purchasing power of American workers (so far). I do like the higher stock market that he no longer claims credit, knowing full well there will be a deep correction or bear market at some time for which he will be blamed. But let's be honest, Presidents get the blame and credit for the economy of which they don't have as much impact on as is commonly attributed. They are a factor, but with some possible exceptions not generally determinative.

rdm says

I don't know but I was expecting Trump to MAGA and we get projected deficits in the trillions and no increase in the average purchasing power of American workers (so far). I do like the higher stock market that he no longer claims credit, knowing full well there will be a deep correction or bear market at some time for which he will be blamed. But let's be honest, Presidents get the blame and credit for the economy of which they don't have as much impact on as is commonly attributed. They are a factor, but with some possible exceptions not generally determinative.

Increased wages begins by shutting down the unfair trade, powered by Outsourcing (itself ONLY possible due to low Tariffs) and mass immigration (to make sure there is never a scarcity of workers to create competition and thus raise wages). So it's ongoing.

It's gonna be a while, but things are already looking up.

It’s not so much that China makes a lot of or goods as it is that China is an untrustworthy trade partner. China steals all technology it can, and then starts making “Chinese” versions of the product at a cheaper rate. It also puts roadblocks and bureaucratic hassles in the way of our own exports just to make it expensive or inconvenient to send goods West across the Pacific. This is the thing Trump is putting to a halt. We’ve opened our markets for decades to Chinese trade and they haven’t reciprocated. It’s time for some quid pro quo and Trump is making it happen. This will strengthen our economy further as our exports are more fairly treated by China’s government.

Trump never wanted to shut down trade with anyone. He wants a fair deal, and actually has advocated for free trade with the world. As long as we can fairly trade the products we make and keep our service jobs from being outsourced, Americans will have plenty of jobs to do! The world is a big place and most countries would want to buy something from us if their governments would get out of the way.

Patrick says

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

A massive net importer can't really be hurt to bad in a trade war, but the net exporters can.

True, and Trump is well aware of our excellent leverage over the Chinese. If we stop buying their stuff, maybe we have to pay more for domestically made substitutes, but that also leads to new jobs in the US. They on the other hand face massive social unrest if their factories stop employing people.

Our factories have mostly been closed already because of the shift to China. Re-opening them is not such a loss.

No, it's actually not true at all. Net importers will import inflation in a trade war.

I've long been in favor of increasing tariffs but let's not pretend that policy doesn't come with some pain. We can and will be hurt. It may lead to more jobs here or it may lead to more Federal revenue from the tariffs. Time will tell.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Increased wages begins by shutting down the unfair trade, powered by Outsourcing (itself ONLY possible due to low Tariffs) and mass immigration (to make sure there is never a scarcity of workers to create competition and thus raise wages). So it's ongoing.

It's gonna be a while, but things are already looking up.

Not really--one month does not a trend make.

The jobs created trend is the same as it's been since 2012 and the real wage trend is worse.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Nothing about cheering - it's about "Who would win the Trade War". Right now the Trade War doesn't seem to be hurting the US with Job Expectations thoroughly beat to the positive last month. I thought a trade war would hurt the US?

Trade wars hurt everyone, at least in the short run. But the war hasn't even started yet really. Let's see in 6 months.

LeonDurham says

And why would I cheer a loss of jobs in Canada?

It's all Trudeau's fault!!!

If we detach emotions from facts, what we have as a residue is that despite Trump rhetoric, trade deficit overall is among the highest it has ever been. May be it is a fluke, but may be it is result of Trump's policies. It is also understandable that any policy will not be instantaneous. I think we all have to wait for a year or two to see how this pans out.

I suspect however that it is not a fluke, given that a lot of energy needs are now covered with shale hydrocarbons and US extraction of oil/gas is at its highest levels. That should bring deficit down, but it is increasing.

LeonDurham says

Not really--one month does not a trend make.

The jobs created trend is the same as it's been since 2012 and the real wage trend is worse.

From the NYT, of all places:

The headlines for the August job numbers released this morning are nothing but good. Employers added a robust 201,000 jobs, the unemployment rate remained at the rock-bottom level of 3.9 percent, and wages grew the fastest they have in nine years.

There’s no doubt that this is the best economy in quite a long time for American workers, who by a wide range of measures can find a job more easily than they have in a decade …

But the fact that higher pay raises are finally showing up in the data is another piece of evidence that employers are coming up against the limits of the labor force. Just maybe, after years of trying every recruitment technique other than raising hourly pay, employers are starting to turn more to that option.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/07/upshot/jobs-report-economy-needs-workers.html?smid=tw-upshotnyt&smtyp=cur

More importantly:

Rural employment grew at an annualized rate of 5.1 percent in the first quarter. Smaller metro areas grew 5.0 percent. That’s significantly larger than the 4.1 percent growth seen in large urban areas that recovered earlier from the Great Recession, according to an analysis by the Brookings Institution’s Metropolitan Policy Program of a separate set of Labor Department data released on Wednesday.

In the past year, the economy has added 656,000 blue-collar jobs, compared to 1.7 million added in the services sector. But the rate of growth in blue-collar jobs is speeding up, while service-sector job growth has hovered around 1.3 percent over the past year.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/09/09/under-trump-jobs-boom-has-finally-reached-blue-collar-workers-will-it-last/?utm_term=.aea0b5df80ba

The "Recovery" has finally hit Middle America, or I should say, the Trump Recovery.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

From the NYT, of all places:

yes, lol, when the NYT says something you agree with, it's no longer fake news. I forgot.