patrick.net

Quigley says

The GOP will pick up 8-10 seats in the Senate and 15 in the House.

Not sure where you're drawing those conclusions from. Odds are good that the Repubs will pick up a couple seats in the Senate, but the House? Not quite.

The anger about the Kavanagh Kangaroo Kourt is real and will drive extra beatings than were already in store for the Democrats. Remember I predicted a red wave in May.
That red wave just got ten feet higher!

The Democrats just marginalized their party for a generation.

Official: Heitkamp is out of the Race for ND Senate. Vows to vote "No" on Kavanaugh.
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1047914985341558785

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Official: Heitkamp is out of the Race for ND Senate. Vows to vote "No" on Kavanaugh.
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1047914985341558785

Heitkamp has been trailing Cramer since like May. The Kavanaugh hearings may have moved the needle infinitesimally but she's been in an uphill battle for at least 2 months before Kavanaugh was even announced.

In all likelihood she knows she's toast and is just voting her conscience.

TwoScoopsOfSpaceForce says

Official: Heitkamp is out of the Race for ND Senate. Vows to vote "No" on Kavanaugh.
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1047914985341558785

Just like that, ND got a GOP senator in November.

Democrats' 2018 "Better Deal" leaves a lot of room for improvement. It seems mainly about adding government programs.

For example, to address absurdly high medical costs, "Prescription drugs that meet a test for an unconscionable price increase will be subject to new investigative and enforcement action by a new “price gouging” enforcer." Nevermind the already absurdly high baseline, and the routine increases: only an "unconscionable" increase will trigger review. And forget about market competition. Repealing the Rx requirement and import restrictions, so that people can shop around and buy what they want from wherever they want, would reduce costs dramatically and quickly, but that is not part of the deal.

I don't see huge numbers of people rallying around creating new government departments. The game plan seems to be primarily TDS, opposing the President and all of his works. That didn't work in 2016, so it seems unlikely to do better in 2018 when he isn't even on the ballot.

I would love to be proven wrong about this, because I do think divided government produces better judicial appointments, and for that reason I would like to see Democrats regain the Senate. I just don't see it happening with the current "deal".

MockingbirdKiller says

She was screwed no matter how she voted. Vote 'yes' and lose her base. Lose her base, guaranteed to lose the election.

Vote 'no', she keeps her base but will probably lose the election anyway. Poll show that 50% of Likely Voters in ND support Kavanaugh.

True. Red State Democrats should really learn a lesson from Manchin (who will probably end up switching parties anyway).

curious2 says

I don't see huge numbers of people rallying around creating new government departments.

What else do Democrats offer besides more Government programs mired by corruption and inefficiency?

Only Progressive Activists, 8% of population, think Free Speech isn't an issue. Only Traditional Liberals (11%) and Progressive Activists (8%) think Hate Speech is more of an issue than Free Speech. Ignore the loud minority.



https://pjmedia.com/trending/80-percent-of-americans-oppose-political-correctness-study-finds/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

https://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/410575-poll-dems-lead-gop-by-13-points-on-generic-congressional-ballot

Democrats hold a 13-point lead over Republicans among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot

That same very biased CNN poll said that 50% of the same people thought the GOP would retain the majority in the House.

haha, that's great

LeonDurham says

Democrats hold a 13-point lead over Republicans among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot

Good. News like this usually lead to less turnout on the "winning" side.

DASKAA says

Good. News like this usually lead to less turnout on the "winning" side.

Maybe. Dems seem pretty energized this time around. Predicting turnout is very difficult, however, so you could be right.

LeonDurham says

https://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/410575-poll-dems-lead-gop-by-13-points-on-generic-congressional-ballot

Democrats hold a 13-point lead over Republicans among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot

Oh also, HRC holds a 13 point advantage over Trump. https://www.cnn.com/2016/10/23/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-presidential-polls/index.html

"The ABC News poll was conducted October 20-22 and includes 874 likely voters. Its margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points."

Ok, so for anyone paying attention. A 12 point lead w a 3.5 % margin of error should almost NEVER result in a Trump victory.

Tell us again about those reliable polls?

What I’m seeing is this. people who’ve sidelined themselves from politics or voting for years or even decades because they don’t believe in the process are having a change of heart. They’re seeing things happen that could have never happened when one of the trained apes who usually run the world were in charge. They see that the Democrats are completely deranged and hostile to regular Americans. They deeply mistrust these Leftists and are ready to cast a vote they haven’t used in years to keep the idiots from getting back in power.
I’m predicting a MUCH larger Republican turnout than anyone expects. And I’m predicting a smaller Dem turnout than expected. It’ll be a bloodbath.

TrumpingTits says

CBOEtrader says

"The ABC News poll was conducted October 20-22 and includes 874 likely voters. Its margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points."

Yeah. Likely voters asked totally unlikely questions regarding the real world.

Was the election on October 22nd?

Democrats will take control of the house, but probably not enough of a blue wave for them to take the senate.

But I am praying that they do, and I hardly ever pray.

I'm betting Democrats lose even more seats. Not certain, just a feeling.

Patrick says

I'm betting Democrats lose even more seats. Not certain, just a feeling.

Yup. Only 3 times in history has the party w newly elected potus gained seats. Midterms lining up to be as historical as 2016 epection.

MSM ignores traditions and attacked trump from day 1. This backfired enormously since Trump circumvented then via twitter and rallies. Whatever negative influence the MSM originally had has turned on them as more red pilled Americans support trump than ever.

Oddly enough it is the left constantly attacking, constantly smearing, constantly oppressing any wrongthinkers that has become Trump's biggest asset.

I’m just wondering what the next step will be for Democrats once the bloodbath of Midterms is over? Will they accept that America hates their stance on practically everything and make some changes? Or will they double down, increase the hate, and get even more radical?
I’m fearing that it will be the latter option. They aren’t sane.

Quigley says

I’m just wondering what the next step will be for Democrats once the bloodbath of Midterms is over? Will they accept that America hates their stance on practically everything and make some changes? Or will they double down, increase the hate, and get even more radical?
I’m fearing that it will be the latter option. They aren’t sane.

I would like to see the sane elements left in the Democrat Party break off and form a new Labor Party. Imagine a Party that is pro worker by curtailing illegal immigration, tariffs on low wage high pollution imports, and supporting private sector unions. May even pull in some Trump supporters and even Trump himself.

Patrick says

I'm betting Democrats lose even more seats. Not certain, just a feeling

I frankly can't make up my mind on this. R's will hold Senate for sure, may be even gain a seat or two, but House is extremely unpredictable. My prediction is +/- same situation as now.

Aphroman says

Goran: go to matchbook.com I’m offering up Ted Cruz vs Beto O’Rourke action, who wants some!

I want some.

How does matchbook work? Are we betting against each other or against the house? I'll only do this if I'm betting against your pocket book. I can bet on odds all day, that's not fun.

or lets just do a gentleman's $500 bet right now. I take Cruz straight up, you take Beta.

Goran_K says

or lets just do a gentleman's $500 bet right now. I take Cruz straight up, you take Beta.

pat.net feature request: current events wager book.

Perhaps we could make bets and the loser has to donate to Patnet in the agreed upon amount?
I bet you a $100 donation to Patnet that there’s a Red Wave this November. That we end up with more Republicans in Congress than before the election.
Aphroman wanna take that bet? Patrick can ban any welshers!

MockingbirdKiller says

Full disclosure to @Aphroman: Democrat running in a Florida district Trump LOST by TWENTY points in 2016 is behind her GOP opponent.

Blew Wave!

cmdrdataleak says

pat.net feature request: current events wager book.

I think this would be a good feature @patrick. Could plug into PayPal.

Right now a lot of people talk way too much shit because it's free.

I'd like someone to talk shit when $500 is on the line.

How about $500 on who gains in the House?

Goran wins if Republicans pick up seats, I win if Dems pick up seats.

LeonDurham says

How about $500 on who gains in the House?

Goran wins if Republicans pick up seats, I win if Dems pick up seats.

I'll do a bet on who KEEPS the house and Senate.

If the Dems recover the house but not the senate (or vice versa) then it's a wash.

But it Dems pick up both (aka Blue Wave), I pay you $500.

If GOP keeps both, you pay me $500.

I'll take bets on this up to $2000 from other people who want to throw their money on the table.

Would you do that bet?

I thought you were predicting a red wave? Doesn't sound like you're too confident.

Interesting re. Hispanics, who are supposed to vote D reliably...but apparently not in TX

A new poll released Thursday morning showed Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz has stabilized his lead over his Democrat challenger, U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke of El Paso.

Fifty-four percent of Texans backed Cruz, while 45 percent backed O'Rourke in the latest Quinnipiac University poll.

The poll also shows Republican Gov. Greg Abbott with a prohibitive lead over his Democratic rival, former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez, 58 percent to 38 percent.

Strikingly, while Valdez and O'Rourke have consolidated support among African Americans, Abbott and Cruz garnered sizable Hispanic support. Cruz had the backing of 37 percent of Hispanic respondents while nearly half of Hispanics surveyed — 46 percent — supported Abbott.

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/10/11/cruz-orourke-poll-senate-texas/

https://poll.qu.edu/texas/release-detail?ReleaseID=2578

LeonDurham says

Doesn't sound like you're too confident.

I'm confident that there will be no Blue Wave, hence this thread.

I'm also willing to put $500 on it. Are you?

"Gaining seats" means nothing. The Dems can gain "1 seat" and you win $500, but the Dems would have no control over the House or the Senate.

I'm betting for CONTROL of both houses (aka Blue Wave). But you seem to doubt it will happen , hence you're not accepting the bet?