patrick.net

Excerpt:

Third, Mueller has found evidence that Trump was compromised by a hostile foreign power during the election. In his plea deal, Cohen revealed that Trump had repeatedly lied to voters about the then-candidate’s financial ties Russia. While Trump claimed during the campaign to have no business dealings with Russia, he was negotiating a wildly lucrative business deal not simply with Russian businessmen, but also involving with the Kremlin itself. Trump’s team even reportedly tried to bribe Russian President Vladimir Putin by offering him a $50 million penthouse.

Worse, Russia not only knew that Trump was lying, but when investigators first started looking into this deal, the Kremlin helped Trump cover up what really happened. That made Trump doubly compromised: first, because he was eager to get the financial payout and second because Russia had evidence he was lying to the American people—evidence they could have held over Trump by threatening to reveal at any time.

Since the president’s embarrassing performance at the Helsinki summit with Vladimir Putin—when he kowtowed to a foreign adversary rather than stand up for American interests—there has been open speculation about what leverage the Kremlin has over him. Now we know at least part of the picture, raising the specter of what other information Putin has, and how he is using it to influence Trump’s policy decisions.

Fourth, we know that Trump has engaged in an increasingly brazen attempt to cover up his actions: installing a political crony to head the Department of Justice by potentially illegal means in an effort to shut down the investigation; using his former campaign chairman and convicted criminal Paul Manafort to find out information about Mueller’s investigation; and even appearing to offer Manafort a pardon if he helps him obstruct the Russia probe. These may be components of an obstruction of justice case, but they also provide strongly circumstantial data points as to how serious Trump himself views the allegations of collusion being levelled against him.

marcus says

Mueller is coming for Trump. Believe it.

No he is not. Nothing will ever happen -- and not because Trump is a Saint Protector of Failed Hair Care Products and Savior of Blue Collar America.

It is all a Dog and Pony show to entertain and rile up electorate.

We'll see. I'm not saying there will be a conviction of Trump for a crime, while he's still President. But grounds for impeachment are certainly there. I sort of hope they don't. But the grounds are there.

I can imagine a Trump resignation, followed by Trump trying to build his right wing media empire - which is what he wanted to do in the first place, when he fully expected (and wanted) to lose in 2016. Perhaps a deal in which he resigns in exchange for not having to go to prison ?

marcus says

Perhaps a deal in which he resigns in exchange for not having to go to prison ?

That benefits neither R's nor D's, so it is unlikely. For D's, harping ORANGE MAN BAD, WILL GET INDICTED TOMORROW constantly is the best strategy so that their electorate is riled up and votes. For R's impeachment of their Pres (even though Trump is not much liked among R establishment) is bad, so they will not go for it as well.

If I just believe hard enough, if I just preen long enough, if I just emote crazy enough I will cause Trump to get impeached?

What, no DailyKos diatribes. You know, there are deplorable, uneducated, ignorant and biased Hillary voters, as well.

Why are you quoting a propaganda news site?

BTW, if you watched CNN or MSNBC last night, particularly the lying congressman Ted Lieu, you got a VERY false narration of what the memos said.

You do understand that, correct?

If there really was language in the memos linking Manafort's and Cohen's actions to Trump and collusion with the Russian government, don't you think CNN and MSNBHeehaw would have prominently displayed those excerpts on screen? Certainly FOX does that when theres a smoking gun...they show excerpts of documents all the time.

Because that didn't happen last night, you REALLY should question why Ted Lieu and Jeffrey Toobin are flapping their gums, yet don't prominently display the text that prove their point beyond any doubt.

And in the absence of such, you probably should think that what they are saying isn't true.

You have critical thinking skills. Lets see you use them.

For Democracy sake Marcus you better hope those evil bastards don't succeed in doing to Trump what everyone at this point knows needs to be done to Obama, Clintons, and most of Obama's cabinet and some of GW's as well.

The only way they'll pull this off is by actually draining the Swamp. They and Mueller would be a hero. This wont end well for America if it goes just one sided.

You're an educated man can you admit that?

Or is everything Trump is "accused" of fine as long as Your side doing it?

marcus says

I can imagine a Trump resignation,

You have quite an imagination... While we are on the subject of your wild imagination, do you also imagine Hillary as president?

WineHorror1 says

If I just believe hard enough, if I just preen long enough, if I just emote crazy enough I will cause Trump to get impeached?

I think Oprah said that's all it takes.

Tenpoundbass says

You're an educated man

You mean a person that memorizes stuff and follows orders?

Nothing is going to happen. The only thing so far is that Trump maybe violated campaign violations by paying Cohen to pay Stormy Daniels. Grey area, esp. if Trump can prove he's paid attorneys to pay off Hobags at other times.

And if the House impeaches over a campaign finance violation, It's a wristslap no matter what. He'll be told to be more careful next time by the Senate and that will be the end of it.

It also came out that Cohen lied about making deals with Russia, but Trump didn't. So the Russian Collusion is now proven Bullshit with no evidence.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/michael-cohen-lied-about-dealing-with-russia-but-trump-didnt

No matter how much Leftists squawk about "Individual-1" aka #OrangeManBad.

Tenpoundbass says

Or is everything Trump is "accused" of fine as long as Your side doing it?

OH so that's going to be what you're going with ?

"Obama and the Clintons were just as bad, if not worse. Remember how Hillary caused Benghazi, and she had her own email accounts for some of her emails ? How dare you libtards think that just because everything about Trump screams dirtbag on nearly a daily basis, that it compares to all of the made up stuff about Hillary that Brietbart and FOx have programmed me with ! Lock her up damn it !"

Okay. That's about what I expected from TPB. Is that what the rest of you are going to say too ? "It's just how politicians are." ?

marcus says

But as the story comes out over the next several weeks, you might be called upon to explain more than ever before, all the Trump attributes you are willing to overlook.

Explain to whom? Nobody that hates Trump is willing to listen and those that like Trump don't need an explanation.

marcus says

Mueller is coming for Trump. Believe it.

So is/was omarosa

marcus says

Trump Cucks: You should start thinking about how you're going to defend Trump.

Marcus I just want you to remember this post you made calling everyone a Trump Cuck, when next time you whine about how people call you names and you get hurt and blame the moderation. Just want to point it out to you and your beautiful, gorgeous, amazing double standard. And am bookmarking this too for when you need to be reminded. :)

Mueller is a pesky horse fly buzzing around the racehorse president.

Talking to people, domestic, foreign, or martian in a campaign is not a crime.

I was very happy when Putin sent me a $100 PayPal to vote that day; Oh you guys didn't get it? Too bad.

marcus says

Trump Cucks: You should start thinking about how you're going to defend Trump

With his amazing record, Trump does not need defense at all. The question is, how will you attack him when you got nothing on him?
Rumors don't count.

"About to happen, any day now!" says bewildered, foaming at the mouth, Democrat voter.

HEYYOU says

Trump can't be impeached for being a lying,draft dodging,sexual sicko,adulterer?

@HEYYOU, can be impeached does not mean will be impeached. Those are light years apart. Remember, only serfs are punished for crimes while feudal masters and rulers of UNIVERSE! are given a bonus and a promotion after screwing over another batch of smerds.

CovfefeButDeadly says

You have critical thinking skills. Lets see you use them.

I think you’re giving Marcus way too much credit.

What happened to Trump-Russian Possible Collusion?
Or Stormy?

Now we're on to a minor Campaign Finance violation, if it is one at all, at best?

Didn't Obama "misplace" $375,000?

Mueller to wrap up investigation in about a month

Roger Stone was the last desperate attempt to find something, anything, but at least will have the purpose of hopefully intimidating Republican Activists.

There's nothing, no secret evidence, no nothing. After Mueller's case is busted, there's no longer anything to secretly hope for.

@Patrick can we keep this thread nice and safe, part of the permanent record?

MisterLearnToCode says

@Patrick can we keep this thread nice and safe, part of the permanent record?

Can we do the same with this one ?

http://patrick.net/post/1313225/2018-01-19-explosive-shocking-and-alarming-fisa-memo-set-to-rock-dc-end-mueller-investigation-

Then everything will be balanced - one from the left and one from the right.

Late june through august. not now.

HEYYOU says

Having a little trouble understanding, "Trump can't be impeached.."

MisterLearnToCode says

Grey area, esp. if Trump can prove he's paid attorneys to pay off Hobags at other times.

Hillary knew about Stormy and Trump.

She kept it to herself because she thought it would motivate the deplorables to vote.

MisterLearnToCode says

Patrick can we keep this thread nice and safe, part of the permanent record?

@MisterLearnToCode What kind of safe do you mean? Of course all personal insults should be flagged.

Patrick says

MisterLearnToCode says

Patrick can we keep this thread nice and safe, part of the permanent record?

@MisterLearnToCode What kind of safe do you mean? Of course all personal insults should be flagged.

I think he means people who will go back and delete stuff they claimed in this thread after the Muellar investigation drops a big nothing in March.

Goran_K says

I think he means people who will go back and delete stuff they claimed in this thread after the Muellar investigation drops a big nothing in March.

And did I call it, after Judge Sullivan postponed stepping in the Flynn flaming Shit Bag Mueller put on his door.

I said Judge Sullivan didn't want to be brought up on ethics charges when this era gets revisited by impartial eyes. So he was giving it a three month postpone to see how the Mueller investigation wraps up. And what's in Trump's thousands of sealed indictments. I used to think was just bullshit. But even the Judge for the Manafort re-sentencing, and now just today the Cohen hearing in Congress has been delayed. It seems the jig is up and these activist Prosecutors and Activist partisan Judges are suddenly getting cold feet doing Liberal's for pay Political bidding. Suddenly it's not fashionable for Judges to say "Fuck Trump!" from the bench.

marcus says

Mueller is coming for Trump. Believe it.

At what point can @Marcus admit he was wrong?

How fast can a blind rat find the cheese?

Patrick says

@MisterLearnToCode What kind of safe do you mean? Of course all personal insults should be flagged.

Goran_K says

I think he means people who will go back and delete stuff they claimed in this thread after the Muellar investigation drops a big nothing in March.

I mean if somebody can't delete the OP, or key posts, so it remains no matter what?

What Washington Republicans Really Thought of Trump’s State of the Union Address. They know they are completely and utterly screwed.

I honestly have no idea how most of Donald Trump’s supporters throughout America reacted to his State of the Union address last night. Maybe they loved it. Maybe they thought he threw too many bones to the Democrats. Frankly it’s very hard, and probably impossible, for me to get inside their heads.

But it’s a lot easier to judge how members of the GOP who were in the House chamber felt about the speech. It was right there for all of us to see on TV. And the overwhelming sense I got was that they didn’t like much of what they heard. In fact, I can’t remember a State of the Union address that was so tepidly received by members of the president’s own party.

Sure, there were moments when GOP lawmakers stood and applauded vigorously, at a few points even chanting “USA! USA!” But those occasions were remarkably few. And I don’t recall the cheering from the GOP side of the aisle ever being sustained and energetic.

Instead, time after time, Trump’s crafted rhetoric and policy proposals were met with pro forma standing and limp clapping from Republicans, whose facial expressions alternated between polite nodding and cringing discomfort. In the cutaways to Mitch McConnell, the Senate leader was conspicuously restrained, even for him. The section on trade was, not surprisingly, poorly received by GOP members. The parts about pulling troops out of Afghanistan and Syria were met with crickets. And what struck me as most significant was the awkward near-silence with which Republicans greeted Trump’s bizarre warning that the economy would be jeopardized by “investigations.”

I know that Democrats have been beside themselves with fury at the craven willingness of congressional Republicans to support and enable Trump over the past two years. I share that feeling.

But if you live in Washington and interact with professional Republicans, as I do on occasion, you know that nine out of ten can’t abide the man. Few of them will say say so publicly, and that reticence will probably continue, at least for a while.

But last night they gave themselves away. In their demeanor and body language, Washington Republicans let us know that they know they are completely and utterly screwed—and that the next two years are going to be miserable for them.

https://washingtonmonthly.com/2019/02/06/what-washington-republicans-really-thought-of-trumps-sotu-address/

Impeachment hedge runs through Saudi Arabia

What’s the best way to play the impeachment of the U.S. president? That’s a question that investors are pondering as Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation into Donald Trump’s ties with Russia, and other stuff, finishes up.

Democrats, who now control the House of Representatives, appear eager to use Mueller’s findings to commence a process of defenestration. Fund managers, including so-called “macro investors” who make large bets on currencies and interest rates, have a few ideas to trade what might happen next – the most intriguing of which runs through the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

There’s little consensus on how measures to oust the president by constitutional means would affect financial markets. Putting aside their own political biases or personal views on Trump’s stewardship, investors don’t have a clear answer from history for how to position their portfolios. The two historical antecedents of the past half-century offer conflicting messages.

If there’s anything to glean from the two situations (Nixon and Clinton), it’s that broader economic conditions have more influence than politics on equity returns. In Nixon’s case, some of his other policy decisions, such as withdrawal from the Bretton Woods Accord, ending the convertibility of the dollar; and geopolitics, including the Yom Kippur War and corresponding OPEC oil embargo for America’s support of Israel, mattered more than impeachment or resignation.

Similarly, the booming economy of the Clinton years encouraged investors to ignore the political investigation into the Democratic president’s personal infidelities. American GDP grew by more than 4 percent annually in the last two years of the 20th Century, thanks to the first internet-fueled investment boom, leading to a rare federal government fiscal surplus.

Investors still need to consider hedging their bets.

The chances of an impeachment by the House are greater than zero. Betting markets, like those monitored by PredictIt, forecast a near-30 percent chance of it happening before 2020. That’s in line with informal polls conducted by Breakingviews at Predictions events last month. Some 80 percent of attendees voting in New York in January gave impeachment a 30 percent or higher probability.

The bottom line comes down to whether the economy and corporate earnings would continue to grow. If two-thirds of the Senate approved removing Trump, economic policy would pass to an administration led by Vice President Mike Pence. He’d likely pursue a traditional Republican agenda of lower taxes and minimised regulation – not much different from the Trump administration. All things being equal, that might help stocks.

On the other hand, the looming effects of Trump’s loose fiscal policy could lead to higher interest rates, which might dampen growth and corporate earnings. Hence there’s no clear direction one way or the other to posit from a Trump impeachment. Or as one investor explains cynically: “all the smart people who have been busy saving in the world are all going to have a different view on the U.S. economy.”

Which leads to Saudi Arabia. If there’s one stark difference of opinion between the president and legislature, it’s in their approach to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. In December, a vote to end military aid for the kingdom’s war in Yemen, and to blame MbS for the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, received 56 votes in the Republican-led Senate, an unusual rebuke to the White House. Last week, the House voted 248-177 in favor of a similar motion.

Trump will oppose any bill that crosses his desk. And neither chamber mustered sufficient support to override a presidential veto. But it illustrates how crucial – even existential – the president’s support is for MbS. A weakened or impeached Trump would remove the last protection Saudi currently enjoys from the wrath of Congress. That could allow legislation such as the current bill, and additional sanctions, to become law.

How Riyadh would respond is hard to say. In the past it has weaponised the price of oil, primarily by cutting production. Even if that didn’t happen, opponents of MbS could be emboldened to try to depose him, potentially disrupting oil production. Though the United States is a major energy producer, the higher oil prices that would arise from either outcome would hurt consumers, dent profits, slow the economy and hurt the stock market.

Hence the play. One-year options to buy West Texas Intermediate Crude at $100 a barrel currently cost about a quarter of one percent. At an average price this year of around $52 per barrel, they’re way out of the money. A return to three-digit oil following a Saudi supply shock, then, would deliver a massive return. True, chaos in the kingdom would have lots of other knock-on effects, as would an abrupt end of the Trump presidency. But even in bedlam there’s money to be made.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-politics-breakingviews/breakingviews-cox-impeachment-hedge-runs-through-saudi-arabia-idUSKCN1QA1NG

d6rB says

marcus says

Mueller is coming for Trump. Believe it.

No he is not. Nothing will ever happen -- and not because Trump is a Saint Protector of Failed Hair Care Products and Savior of Blue Collar America.

It is all a Dog and Pony show to entertain and rile up electorate.

I don't want to harp too much on this, but please see above.
NOTHING WILL HAPPEN.

marcus says

Mueller is coming for Trump. Believe it.

Don't stop, Believin'
Hold on that Feeeeeelin'