patrick.net

socal2 says

If Musk gets his battery giga-factory going as planned, I'd think Tesla will have a massive advantage compared to the other big auto-makers for the next several years.

Tesla will end up selling the batteries to other automakers. Tesla cares are mostly a proof of concept that they might abandon at some point.

Just two trading days into the new year, shares of Tesla were already down nearly 10 percent. According to Vertical Research Group’s Gordon Johnson, this is only the tip of the iceberg for what’s to come.

Johnson has an $88 year-end price target on the stock, which means he believes the automaker will lose 70 percent of its value in the coming year. For perspective, the average analyst price target for the stock is $334, according to FactSet.

“If you take the Q3 numbers and you annualize them, I think Q3 is going to be the high-water mark for Tesla. I don’t think they’re ever going to reach that level of earnings again,” he said Thursday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.” “If you look at what the stock’s trading at, you’re talking about like you know near a 100 times multiple on those earnings, and the company is clearly not growing at that level.”

Because Tesla sells its cars directly to consumers rather than going through the traditional dealership approach, Johnson argues there could be some discrepancies in how its inventory is being reported. He also believes there will be massive cancellations after the government subsidy for electric vehicles was slashed in half.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/03/wall-streets-biggest-tesla-bear-says-stock-will-tank-70-percent-in-2019.html

TSLA is way too volatile. It was 300 then dropped to 200s then went up to 370 os so then again dropped. Market is crazy right now.

Tesla is our only dog in this fight. GM is like my addict friend who will mortgage the future for a quick fix. Chrysler – FIAT, enough said. Ford, they will ek out an existence with F150. The fall back plan is government bail out.
Tesla is being attacked on all fronts. The luxury cars will put up a fight. The KorChinPans are going to fight them for battery dominance. They have to invest huge $ in China, probably building the Y there. The last thing they need is to hemorrhage cash flow. They have no choice, it is the biggest EV market. Now they are going to fight the BYDs on their own turf. It's only hope is to innovate out of it.
What I am certain of, despite what each Chinese EV makers are saying publicly. “Tesla is in a different market segment than us, we can coexist.” BS. Whoever wins the low and mid end, game over.

zzyzzx says

This is a good prank to pull on the kids when they're in the car. You move it to their seat and let it rip. ;-)

kt1652 says

Tesla is our only dog in this fight. GM is like my addict friend who will mortgage the future for a quick fix. Chrysler – FIAT, enough said. Ford, they will ek out an existence with F150. The fall back plan is government bail out.
Tesla is being attacked on all fronts. The luxury cars will put up a fight. The KorChinPans are going to fight them for battery dominance. They have to invest huge $ in China, probably building the Y there. The last thing they need is to hemorrhage cash flow. They have no choice, it is the biggest EV market. Now they are going to fight the BYDs on their own turf. It's only hope is to innovate out of it.
What I am certain of, despite what each Chinese EV makers are saying publicly. “Tesla is in a different market segment than us, we can coexist.” BS. Whoever wins the low and mid end, game over.

It's ironic to see our own folks wanting our own American company to fail especially the loser short sellers on seeking alpha. They couldn't invent or create anything positive to contribute to the society. They want to benefit based on someone else's failure. What a bunch of losers.

DASKAA says

SunnyvaleCA says

DASKAA says

Substitute Tesla for Amazon, electric cars for online retail and legacy car companies for brick-and-mortar retail giants

Do you realize that Benz, Daimler, Porsche, and many others had hybrid-electric cars well before Musk was even born?

Um, no, they didn't. First hybrid was Prius and Mask was already adult and millionaire. First German hybrid didn't appear till 2010 iirc. And hybrid-electric is not the same as full-electric. It's a cludge at best. Besides, if these guys are ready to eat Elon's lunch, why BMW's electric offers suck so much and the rest don't have anything at all (well Daimler did have a fully-electric offering based on .... drumroll... Tesla drivetrain).

Starting in 1900... here you go:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lohner-Porsche
http://www.paicehybrid.com/tag/1906-mercedes-mixte/

And both cars were also available as electric only.

SunnyvaleCA says

DASKAA says

SunnyvaleCA says

DASKAA says

Substitute Tesla for Amazon, electric cars for online retail and legacy car companies for brick-and-mortar retail giants

Do you realize that Benz, Daimler, Porsche, and many others had hybrid-electric cars well before Musk was even born?

Um, no, they didn't. First hybrid was Prius and Mask was already adult and millionaire. First German hybrid didn't appear till 2010 iirc. And hybrid-electric is not the same as full-electric. It's a cludge at best. Besides, if these guys are ready to eat Elon's lunch, why BMW's electric offers suck so much and the rest don't have anything at all (well Daimler did have a fully-electric offering based on .... drumroll... Tesla drivetrain).

Starting in 19...

Amusing, but irrelevant, factoid.

Tesla cuts 7% of its workforce, and Elon Musk sees a ‘very difficult’ road ahead.

Tesla is cutting its full-time staff headcount by about 7 percent, as it ramps up production of its Model 3 sedans, CEO Elon Musk said Friday.

In an email to employees, Musk said the company faces a “very difficult” road ahead in its long-term goal to sell affordable renewable energy products, noting the company is younger than other players in the industry.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/18/tesla-to-cut-its-workforce-by-around-7-percent.html

Electric-car maker Tesla Inc. will cut approximately 7% of its full-time workforce and warned that Q4 profit won’t meet the performance of Q3, CEO Elon Musk said in an update Friday.

Musk said Tesla TSLA, -9.04% faces a tough challenge of “making our cars, batteries and solar products cost-competitive with fossil fuels,” and that the company’s products are “still too expensive for most people,” according to the update on the company’s blog that was emailed to all employees.

The job cuts follow a 9% staff reduction in June.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-warns-on-q4-profit-cutting-jobs-to-pull-down-model-3-price-2019-01-18

Elon Musk kills the Tesla referral program, suggests it hurt margins.

Tesla Inc. TSLA, -9.20% Chief Executive Elon Musk announced on Twitter late Wednesday the end of the Silicon Valley auto maker's referral program, which involved awards such as a $1,000 credit, Tesla merchandise and products, and months worth of free Tesla's "supercharging" over several iterations. The program officially ends Feb. 1, Musk said. In response to questions tweeted at him, Musk said there were no plans to create another referral program, and suggested it was hurting margins. The program added "too much cost to the cars, especially Model 3," Musk said.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/elon-musk-kills-the-tesla-referral-program-suggests-it-hurt-margins-2019-01-17

Musk announced the job cuts, the first since June, in a memo to employees. Musk is hoping to sell the Model 3 at $35,000. Late last year he debuted a "low-cost" Model 3 with fewer advanced features that debuted with a price tag of just $45,000). He added that the company had "no choice" but to reduce its work force after it increased by 30% last year. The company will retain "only the most critical" temporary workers as it seeks to find a way to lower its head count and ramp up production at the same time.

(Yes, that always helps companies, sell at a lower price, that always makes for better profits!! He'll just make it up in VOLUME!!!!!) (Plus, everyone knows you get better productivity from LESS staff).

They also follow a lowering of Tesla's Q4 profit outlook, according to the Street (this comes after the company earned a surprise profit in Q3, albeit a paper profit that was contingent on the company using "every trick in the book").

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-18/tesla-lowers-q4-profit-guidance-unveils-plans-cut-7-work-force-stock-slides

aahhhhhhh, but that accelleration!!!!!!!

$315.49/sh -31.82 (-9.16%)

Told ya so. Books were "legally" cooked as much as possible for the recent "surprise profit" quarter. Let's wait for next q numbers.

zzyzzx says

Tesla will end up selling the batteries to other automakers. Tesla cares are mostly a proof of concept that they might abandon at some point.

Yes, and that's a sustainable business model as well.

Tesla has $920 million in debt that’s coming due — and it could wipe out a large chunk of the company’s cash.

Tesla has a billion dollar debt coming due, and it could wipe out nearly a third of the company’s cash if the stock price doesn’t improve.

About $920 million in convertible senior notes expires on March 1 at a conversion price of $359.87 per share. But Tesla’s stock hasn’t traded above $359 for weeks. If the shares are about $359.87, then Tesla’s debt converts into Tesla shares. If not, Tesla will have to pay the debt in cash.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/18/tesla-has-920-million-in-debt-thats-coming-due-could-affect-cash.html

Hey, but look at that accelleration.....

Anyone know how well a Tesla does as a paperweight?

Well, that is certainly painful...

MrMagic says

Well, that is certainly painful...

DASKAA says

From a stock trading "investment" view TSLA was a big success, esp. for early adopters of its stock, no question. However the market gets more wrong then people tend to think, and as a company success has been modest. They cranked out pretty good cars, luxury EVs, but for a very high price and debt. Doubtful they can sustain, that's why the price is correcting now. Let's wait til next earnings.

I was picking up one thing at the Palm Beach Gardens, FL Whole Foods and outside there were guys with a Tesla offering rides or etc.

Funny; if that car were so popular they wouldn't be putting them in parking lots and paying guys to get people to check them out.

DASKAA says

SunnyvaleCA says

DASKAA says

SunnyvaleCA says

DASKAA says

Substitute Tesla for Amazon, electric cars for online retail and legacy car companies for brick-and-mortar retail giants

Do you realize that Benz, Daimler, Porsche, and many others had hybrid-electric cars well before Musk was even born?

Um, no, they didn't. First hybrid was Prius and Mask was already adult and millionaire. First German hybrid didn't appear till 2010 iirc. And hybrid-electric is not the same as full-electric. It's a cludge at best. Besides, if these guys are ready to eat Elon's lunch, why BMW's electric offers suck so much and the rest don't have anything at all (well Daimler did have a fully-elect...

"First German hybrid didn't appear till 2010 iirc." I can understand you not remembering correctly. You weren't born yet.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lohner-Porsche
http://www.paicehybrid.com/tag/1906-mercedes-mixte/
The point of the links above above is that all-electric cars and hybrid-electric cars have been around for a century. (Actually, there were all-electric cars 150 years ago.) The battery technology sure has increased a lot, but that's not a Tesla invention either.

You're right that "hybrid-electric is not the same as full-electric." For starters, only one of those systems has been economically successful. Maybe battery tech will improve enough to make full electrics economically successful too. If that happens, then there's still the question of why Tesla's technology and brand name will outpace that of established automakers. Do you really think the established automakers are just sitting back and watching as Tesla blazes into a new market? Do you really think the engineers that pioneered the synergy drive and other systems can't seem to grasp the concepts needed for a simpler battery-only system?

I will agree with you that the BMW i3 is ugly as sin. Also, cheap electric cars are merely "compliance cars" and not desirable like a Tesla. But the ugly and the cheap are at least not losing a lot of money!

Ultimately: If there is an economically viable market, the established companies are going to jump into it. I think the established companies have a lot of other advantages that Tesla won't quickly replicate.

MrMagic says

Anyone know how well a Tesla does as a paperweight?

Poorly, I suppose. However, I know from first-hand observation that the Model X can make a great fire starter. I actually saw the aftermath of the Highway 101/85 crash last year from the vantage point of the 101 northbound on ramp from 85 to 101.

Ppl, I don't get it, this thread is about investments, not about an individual's favorite new car.

When the Boston Celtics were publicly traded, myself and others I knew, who were fans of Larry Bird since birth, didn't buy into them. You can even say that all of the greater Boston area was the Society of Red Auerbach, since pretty much, 90+% of the population were Celts fans.

And here's why ... they were poorly run & were not generating enough income until the company was taken private by new owners and then, between a new GM & President, they re-built and finally started returning to the playoffs, generating revenue (tickets & advertisements), and even got a championship in 2008. Likewise, Tesla needs to go through a similar transformation, for them to become an investable company.

SunnyvaleCA says

"First German hybrid didn't appear till 2010 iirc." I can understand you not remembering correctly. You weren't born yet.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lohner-Porsche
http://www.paicehybrid.com/tag/1906-mercedes-mixte/
The point of the links above above is that all-electric cars and hybrid-electric cars have been around for a century. (Actually, there were all-electric cars 150 years ago.) The battery technology sure has increased a lot, but that's not a Tesla invention either

Nice straw man. Nobody is saying battery in itself was "Tesla invention". And I'm perfectly aware of literally dozens of models of American electric cars sold at the turn on 20 century. It's all as irrelevant to today as Porsche "hybrid" of the same time.

As modern technology stands Tesla is the leader in the field of electric cars. It's simply a fact. It might change next year or next decade but it's a fact now.

Right that plug in hybrids are costly to make and redundant power plants. However, from the ROI pov it makes total sense for a) people that drives a lot (>20k mi/yr), b) has only one car (which by itself makes sense), c) no access to low cost kwh/solar/free charge, d) hates route planning and range anxiety. Hell, I have range anxiety still when I forget to plug in and is low on gas. A couple times. Shite happens: chargers glitches or broken, ICE trucks blocks access, lol, ...I can just drive on gas.
Don't forget, since plugin uses the ICE so little, for me it us <10%, odom at 150,000 mi means the gas engine is only 15,000 mi used. Barely broken in.

Rin is right, TSLA may not be a sound buy-and-hold investment.
Dont buy if you're not willing to lose it all.
My wife lost a bunch of $ because she panicked and sold a few years ago.
Since then, it more than recovered.
I bought an amount that I was willing to lose and t is doing great.
As far as technology, innovation, Tesla is way ahead of the pack.
Why is it that Audi, BMW, Jaguar, MB, GM...come up short in comparison?
Now Hyundai is actually giving Tesla some competition, in the $35K range.
Chinese EV makers, there are >100 of them, is another story.

Reluctance motor in Model3:

www.youtube.com/embed/6fkERTvTDGw

"My wife lost a bunch of $ because she panicked and sold a few years ago.
Since then, it more than recovered."

Man, that's definitely a bummer.

DASKAA says

SunnyvaleCA says

"First German hybrid didn't appear till 2010 iirc." I can understand you not remembering correctly. You weren't born yet.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lohner-Porsche
http://www.paicehybrid.com/tag/1906-mercedes-mixte/
The point of the links above above is that all-electric cars and hybrid-electric cars have been around for a century. (Actually, there were all-electric cars 150 years ago.) The battery technology sure has increased a lot, but that's not a Tesla invention either

Nice straw man. Nobody is saying battery in itself was "Tesla invention". And I'm perfectly aware of literally dozens of models of American electric cars sold at the turn on 20 century. It's all as irrelevant to today as Porsche "hybrid" of the same time.

As mod...

My point is that battery powered cars and hybrid cars have been around for a very very long time. It's not new technology and Tesla hasn't invented some sort of new "killer" technology. Tesla has mind share, for sure. But mind share in one specific area in the short term isn't a guarantee for future market domination (or even market viability).

What does Tesla have that Toyota, Honda, Daimler, BMW, or VW can't also produce? How does Tesla counter those established brand's dealer networks and manufacturing systems? Do people familiar with the "luxury" parts of a Tesla Model S really think they come close to measuring up to a Mercedes S class or even E class interior? I checked out the floor model Model S here in Silicon Valley, and the answer to my eye, nose, and touch it is a resounding no. As for manufacturing and electronics, good luck going against Toyota and Honda (and Hyundai).

SunnyvaleCA says

My point is that battery powered cars and hybrid cars have been around for a very very long time. It's not new technology and Tesla hasn't invented some sort of new "killer" technology.

Nobody claims that "Musk invented electricity" or any such noncense. Lay off already. All Tesla does is better execution of thing called "electric car". Yes, better than Toyota, Honda, Daimler, BMW and VW as it stands now. Just like with ICE cars some do it better than others. Just like it was with steam-powered cars, I'm sure. Tesla dominates the space since 2012 and the mighty Toyota is still catching up. Simple fact. It's been 7 years. Seven years of the same broken clock predictions how they are going to crash and burn TOMORROW and how GM and Toyota will eat their lunch. They still haven't. If this is so easy, why haven't they eaten the fucking Musk's lunch yet? Does BMW have better leather on the shift knob? It's entirely possible. But they can't do "electic car" for shit as it stands now. Their i3 is a sad fucking runabout, not a serius car, but I repeat myself.

Tesla basically proved Rocket Development is a black hole by building a reusable rocket at fraction of the time and cost of competing programs.

Cancel SLS. NASA and USAF will buy from private industry, the same way the buy Trucks for the Vehicle Fleet. Promise $1B on completion of BFR.

I'm sure this is just a minor blip.....

Tesla slashed Model S and X staff in recent layoffs.

Tesla is asking laid-off employees to cooperate in any claims against or by the company, and to adhere to a strict non-disparagement agreement, according to documents attained by CNBC.

Deep cuts occurred in its sales, delivery and Model S and Model X production teams, according to current and newly laid off workers. These people also said that Tesla has suspended night time production of its Model S sedans and Model X SUVs at its Fremont, California car plant.

Two dismissed employees said layoffs resulted in their losing stock options they were promised but had not vested yet. They scored the options as part of seemingly lucrative bonuses during their tenure at Tesla, but were disappointed the shares were worth hundreds instead of thousands of dollars due to the layoffs and vesting schedules.

Which groups were affected

According to an ex-employee who was involved in Tesla’s delivery operations, and a current employee who works for Tesla in Fremont, the layoffs appear to have impacted workers across every department and region from factory workers to recruiters and receptionists. But deep cuts apparently hit Tesla’s delivery, sales and Model S and X production teams.

Laid off workers from the company’s battery plant near Reno, Nevada, and car plant in Fremont, California, as well as one of its delivery centers, say they were walked out by security or by their managers on Friday, some after working a full shift.

Separation agreement details

Among other things, Tesla asked laid off employees via separation agreements to:

Promise not to “disparage Tesla” including the company’s officers, directors, employees, shareholders, agents, affiliates, subsidiaries, and products in any way that’s “Likely to be harmful to them or their business, business reputation or personal reputation.”

Refrain from sharing details about their separation agreement with the public, or with other current or former Tesla employees and contractors.

Cooperate with Tesla in connection to claims against or by the company-- this means laid off employees would share names or correspondence with Tesla if called on, and appear in court or be deposed without the company issuing a subpoena.

Resolve disputes around the separation agreement through arbitration, instead of in a class action suit for example.

Friday’s move marked the second time in seven months that Tesla dismissed thousands of its full-time employees, outside of regular performance review-related terminations.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/23/tesla-layoffs-details-reduced-hours-model-x-model-x-production.html

Tesla stock tanks a day after announcement on store closures, layoffs and first-quarter loss.

Tesla shares slide 8 percent Friday morning.

On Thursday, CEO Elon Musk said he did not expect Tesla to be profitable in the first quarter.

Tesla shares fell 8 percent Friday, a day after the electric car maker said it will be shuttering some stores and cutting jobs to reduce costs.

CEO Elon Musk also said Tesla won’t turn a profit during the first quarter as it works to deliver its mid-size Model 3 sedan at a more affordable price tag of $35,000.

The store closures are part of a push to slash costs as much as possible to ensure the lowest-priced version of the car makes money.

“There’s no way around it,” Musk said on the call.

Musk reversed Wall Street guidance Thursday in predicting a loss for the first quarter, one month after saying he was optimistic the company would be profitable.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/01/tesla-shares-slide-after-announcing-store-closures-layoffs-and-a-loss.html


How soon until he tries to sell them on Amazon?

$294.79/sh - 25.09 (-7.84%)

Tesla is toast; someone may buy it after it goes bankrupt.

In addition to being broke, indebted, etc. Musk is a conman and he is not helping the brand.

According to a recent report by Germany’s Manager-Magazin via Electrek, Porsche and Audi have taken a step back, and may be planning for a new direction after reverse-engineering the Tesla Model 3.

....

The report goes on to say that the companies are concerned their cars are going to be too expensive. While Porsche seems okay with losing money initially, Audi doesn’t want to deal with a loss. The most substantial cost prohibitor is the vehicle’s battery pack, which Tesla is fortunate to build in partnership with Panasonic at its Nevada Gigafactory — the largest battery factory on the planet at this point and growing daily.

Manager-Magazin notes that Audi and Porsche could potentially hold up/push back future production in order to revamp models to better compete with the Tesla Model 3. As the story goes on, Audi’s report even refers to the current Audi e-tron program as a failure (via Electrek):

"The e-tron as the first electric Audi is not only late. It does not reach some target values and has become far too expensive with more than two billion euros in development costs. The approximately 600,000 cars sold for the break-even are now regarded as an illusion."

Not unlike Tesla vehicles (wow it’s hard to build and launch these cars?), the Audi e-tron has continued to be way behind its timelines. We’ve seen much the same situation with the Jaguar I-Pace.



https://insideevs.com/porsche-audi-tesla-model-3-teardown/

jazz_music says

Do you know electric cars have pretty much been perfected since 1938 but the oil companies and their loosely knit coalitions have blocked electric cars from ever becoming mainstream no matter how good they might be, they’re not profitable enough for enough people.

This is simply untrue.

TSLA is in an epic long/short struggle for 18 months.
I had to wait for Mr. Market's tell on the $290B bond payment.
Then Elon Tusk complicated things with the $35K M3.
Online buying is a good long term move - dealerships add no value to EVs, they're $1000/car drag to ICEs.
Must let the dust settle. NTS - short term indicators must turn bullish b4 buying.
More fun than Las Vegas.