patrick.net

Threats from Iran to Israel:

https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/30/middleeast/iran-israel-analysis/index.html

Hossein Salami, a senior Revolutionary Guard commander, issued a harsh warning during Friday prayers, seen as a key signaling tool for the Iranian regime.
"I say this to the Zionists, we know you very well. You are very vulnerable. You have neither depth nor backing. Your mischief has increased. Listen and be aware any war that might happen, rest assured will bring about your disappearance."

---------
he he he he he. I love it. Muslims have a knack with their choice of words when delivering threats.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/israel-benjamin-netanyahu-iran-secret-nuclear-files-deal-deadline-trump-project-amad-latest-a8329961.html

Mr Netanyahu, who met for two hours over the weekend with US secretary of state Mike Pompeo, referred to a secret Iranian nuclear project, codenamed “Amad”, which he said had been shelved in 2003,.

Mossad discovered files about a project that ended in 2003??????? WTF? This is a joke right? Was that why bush offered to negotiate directly with iran over it's nuclear program in 2005? Because no one knew iran was working on a nuclear program? ROFLOL.

Oh right another BOMBSHELL that is going to put hillary/obama in jail.

More bizarre threats from Iran. Folks, you can't make this shit up.
----
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/953435/world-war-3-Iran-threatens-US-Syria-airstrike-tensions-rise

‘We will hit you back’ - Iran THREATENS US after Syria airstrike as World War 3 fears rise

The Iranian leader directly threatened the US in a warning not to take further action against Iran, stating: "If these countries are wise, they won't get involved in a conflict against Iran.

“But, if they enter a war with Iran, they will certainly be struck down and defeated.
----

bob2356 says

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/israel-benjamin-netanyahu-iran-secret-nuclear-files-deal-deadline-trump-project-amad-latest-a8329961.html

Mr Netanyahu, who met for two hours over the weekend with US secretary of state Mike Pompeo, referred to a secret Iranian nuclear project, codenamed “Amad”, which he said had been shelved in 2003,.

Mossad discovered files about a project that ended in 2003??????? WTF? This is a joke right? Was that why bush offered to negotiate directly with iran over it's nuclear program in 2005? Because no one knew iran was working on a nuclear program? ROFLOL.

Oh right another BOMBSHELL that is going to put hillary/obama in jail.

Why did you cut off the quote in the middle of the sentence Bob?

oh shit, are we on the brink of nuclear destruction again? I hate being on the brink. If they can impeach trump, will we get off the brink?

Strategist says

"I say this to the Zionists, we know you very well. You are very vulnerable. You have neither depth nor backing. Your mischief has increased. Listen and be aware any war that might happen, rest assured will bring about your disappearance."

Could anybody "rest assured" while waiting for their "disappearance"?.

CovfefeButDeadly says

Why did you cut off the quote in the middle of the sentence Bob?

He works for the Iranian Secret Service.

And where did Mossad get the files from?

You see, once upon a time, relations between Israel and Iran were really good. Even after the Revolution, there were some in the Revolutionary Guard who had been former Officers of the Shah.

When fighting Iraq, Iran needed replacement Mirage, F-4, and F-5 parts. Israel was already switching to F-16s. So some former Shah generals who had previously worked with the IDF reached out for help. In the 80s, the Israelis were more fearful of Saddam than the Ayatollahs; they bombed Saddam's nuclear enrichment facilities. So they arranged to have spare parts for F-4 Phantoms delivered to Iran. Israel did this with the blessing of the US, too. BOTH Saddam and Khomeni were enemies: one was friendly with the Soviets, one implacably anti-American that had overthrown "our guy" the Shah.

Some communication channels have never closed.

That's how Mossad got the files. It's time for the Ayatollahs to go, everybody agrees, and even the rural hicks are feeling economic hardship like never before.

Between the Trump, MbS, Sisi, and Bibi.

The MENA has been in a Socialist Dictator/Islamist rut for decades. It's ending in front of your eyes, right now. Here is a message from the future:
www.youtube.com/embed/yM25-lz1Yms

Soon you will look behind you and see Bowman.

CovfefeButDeadly says

Why did you cut off the quote in the middle of the sentence Bob?

Because what has been released so far by the Israelis doesn't support that work continued on this project. So far they have admitted they have documents from 2003, not after.so how does Netanyahu determine the work on this project continued? Watch Netanyahu's video,. If they have documents to support this then post them or don't make the claim.

We knew about the programs and shouted about it long and loud. If iran's nuclear program was such a big secret ih 2003 then why did bush publicly announce he wanted to negotiate about the iran nuclear program in 2005? Waiting for an answer still. and waiting and waiting.

Releasing a bunch of stuff everyone knew about already then saying look what secrets we uncovered doesn't impress me that much. It's a good political stunt so far. The usual slavish trump devotees certainly ate it up though.

Strategist says

"Iraq had no nukes

... because Israeli bombed the shit out of their reactor.

You do realize what Bibi said? He said Iran had (past tense) a program to build a nuclear and yes they lied about it. Everybody knew this, Israel now has the proof. Iran violated the nonproliferation treaty they had signed. Why do you think there is an "Iran" deal? What Bibi didnt say was that Iran now has (present tense) a program to build a nuclear weapon. Due to the deal, which is imperfect, but better than nothing the world has a view to what is going on on the ground through an inspection process. OK, So go ahead Trump, get rid of the the current agreement because Obama What's your plan B? B for Bolton plus McCain Graham and the other neo-cons? Opps there goes the Nobel. As best said by the his ex Sec of State and current chief of staff a moron and an idiot. Stupidity is not a plan.

People forget that Iran was denying their goal was to build a bomb in the first place. This is proof that's total bullshit, in their own words.

People forget that military installations are off limits to inspections.

People forget that the oversight provisions weaken over time.

People forget that there was an Oil for Food program with Saddam. Which is impoortant because...

People forget that Europeans, the most Moral Nations, love to find loopholes in Sanctions and trade dual-use tech with rogue nations. Which is why they're fighting for the deal.



If it's a nothing burger and old news, why is Iran lashing out and the Europeans in full whinging mode, while Obamabros have seemingly taken a vacation from the public forum (that won't last long, just until they come up with talking points)?

People forget that Iran was denying their goal was to build a bomb in the first place. In fact, Iran lied about ever pursuing a nuclear weapon program This is proof that's total bullshit, in their own words.

People forget that military installations are off limits to inspections.

People forget that the oversight provisions weaken over time.

People forget that there was an Oil for Food program with Saddam. Which is impoortant because...

People forget that Europeans, the most Moral Nations, love to find loopholes in Sanctions and trade dual-use tech with rogue nations. Which is why they're fighting for the deal.

People forget there are no restrictions on ballistic missile development by Iran in the deal. What's the point of ballistic missiles without a nuclear warhead? They aren't accurate enough for anything but NBC payloads.



The documents literally discuss shutting down "Project Amad" but to restart it at a later date, when the US is distracted elsewhere. The goal is gain at least Five 10KT Nuclear bombs.

If it's a nothing burger and old news, why is Iran lashing out and the Europeans in full whinging mode, while Obamabros have seemingly taken a vacation from the public forum (that won't last long, just until they come up with talking points)?

Strategist says

Just bomb their nukes and be done with it.

And the reason why they haven't attempted to do this again is:
https://www.cnn.com/2012/03/13/world/meast/israel-iran-attack/index.html

Israel hit one target each in Iraq and Syria, but Iran's nuclear assets are spread over multiple sites in different parts of the country. One is buried under concrete. Another is dug into a mountain. Surface-to-air missiles and electronic warfare systems protect them all.

They also are significantly farther away from Israel than the targets in Iraq or Syria.

And they may not be the only sites Israel would need to destroy to achieve its goal.

Bombing Iranian nuclear facilities would be "very complicated," said Ephraim Kam, deputy director of Israel's Institute for National Security Studies.

"It is a very large-scale operation, much greater than the one carried out in Iraq 30 years ago," said Kam, a former colonel who served with an intelligence research division in the Israeli military.

Israel would most likely attack Iran with fighters jets -- the F-15I and the F-16I -- rather than missiles fired from submarines, Kam and other experts said.
"In order to create proper damage to the nuclear plants, you need extremely accurate weapons," Kam said. "I don't know that the missiles are accurate enough."

The Israeli fighters lack the range to reach most of the likely targets in Iran, so Israel would also need to put tanker aircraft into the sky, said Douglas Barrie of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.

Israel has at least seven KC-707 tankers that it could use for airborne refueling, Barrie said.

It also has at least four KC-130H tankers, versions of the giant Hercules aircraft, but is not likely to use them because their slow speed means the jets would need to slow down to link with them, wasting fuel, he said.

The strike aircraft would carry bunker-busting GBU-28 bombs -- 5,000-pound bombs to "go after hardened and buried sites," Barrie said.

Each F-15I could carry up to three bunker-busters, he said, depending on whether they are configured to carry the maximum number of bombs or the largest possible amount of fuel.

The American military has an even larger bunker-buster, the 30,000-pound GBU-57, but there's "no indication the Israelis have requested that weapon" or that Israel has the B-2 or B-52 bombers needed to deliver it, Barrie said.

Like other experts, he based his analysis on the assumption that if Israel mounted an attack, it would do so without American help.

There would be at least four primary targets, said Emily Chorley, a nuclear expert at Jane's: the Natanz and Fordo nuclear enrichment plants, the Esfahan uranium conversion facility, and the Arak nuclear complex.

Esfahan and Arak are above ground and are "relatively vulnerable to aerial attack," she said.

But Natanz, in the center of the country, is buried under 33 feet of earth and 6 feet of concrete, Chorley said, making it "very hard to penetrate."

Fordo, near the holy city of Qom, is "even more difficult" because it is deeply buried in a mountain, she said.

Dropping a bunker-busting bomb on Fordo actually might make it less vulnerable, Chorley said, since collapsing the entrance without destroying the facility would protect it from further bombing.

"It's questionable whether Israel is capable of destroying it in an air-launched attack," she said.

"Just getting Natanz and Arak without getting Fordo wouldn't be worth the risk," she argued, since Fordo is enriching uranium to higher levels than the other sites.

All four targets are protected by S-200 and Hawk surface-to-air missile batteries, said Chorley's colleague, Jim O'Halloran, a specialist in land-based air defense.
Israel would have at least two secondary targets as well, Chorley predicted -- the Tabriz and Imam Ali missile bases in the west, "to prevent a retaliatory missile attack" on Israel.

It also could try to strike the controversial Parchin military base east of Tehran, which inspectors with the International Atomic Energy Agency have been trying to visit, Chorley said.

Israel also might target the Bidganeh military base, which suffered a mysterious explosion in November. That would bring the number of potential targets to eight.
Iran's single declared civilian nuclear reactor probably is safe, Chorley said.

An attack on the Bushehr reactor would risk spreading nuclear contamination, and could mean killing Russian personnel at the Russian-built facility, infuriating Moscow.

Israel has three potential routes of attack, according to Jane's and other experts, assuming its fighters do not fly all the way around the Arabian Peninsula. Jane's says the Israeli Air Force does not have enough refueling capacity to travel that distance.

The northern route would go through Turkey, with which Israel has tense relations. The southern route would go through Saudi Arabia, which fears its rival Iran getting a bomb but is openly hostile toward Israel.

The central route is the shortest. It runs through Jordan and Iraq. Jordan and Israel are at peace, but there's no guarantee Jordan would formally give Israel permission to fly over its territory.

Iraqi air defenses, meanwhile, "cannot prevent violations of sovereignty," said Charles Hollosi of IHS Jane's. That makes it the "most likely location for air refueling."

Israel will need to decide what altitude its planes would fly at on the way in. Flying higher would protect them from the defenses of the countries they fly over, but will expose them sooner to Iranian radar.

"You're going to be in the cockpit three hours-plus before you get to the target unless you go the central route," said Barrie, the International Institute for Strategic Studies' senior fellow for military aerospace in London.

He doubts the Iranians would be able to detect them coming that far away.

"I don't imagine them having two hours' notice. The Israelis will be desperate to give them as little notice as possible.

"They will try to ensure their aircraft remain below their radar as long as possible," he said. "If you're in an Israeli fast jet you don't want it to be anything like a fair fight."

Barrie noted the Israeli military's success in attacking a suspected nuclear site in Syria in 2007.

"The Israelis, with a mix of electronic warfare and electronic attack, degraded Syrian air defenses to the point where they didn't see the strike package coming in," he said.

"Can the Israelis pull off tactical surprise the way they did with the Syrians in 2007? Going after three or four strike targets is much harder," he said.

Iran's air force has American-made F-14 Tomcats acquired under the shah's regime, which ended in 1979, Barrie said, as well as Russian-made MiG-29s. On paper, they are not a match for the Israeli planes.

"Israel remains the pre-eminent air force in the region -- well-equipped, and they have trained long and hard," he said.

"The Iranians are at an obvious disadvantage in terms of the age and quality of the equipment they have, but they also train hard and will be motivated," Barrie said. "I would be surprised if the Israelis are underestimating the Iranians."

It's expensive to pay Iran for termination of Iran's nuclear program, with unreliable end result.
It's cheaper to pay Israel for termination of Iran's nuclear program, with much more reliable end result.

willywonka says

Let’s keep nukes out of the Middle East.

Way too late. Israel has had nukes since the 60's.

Is there anything positive remaining from Obummer's legacy? History will not be kind to this weak leader and he will likely be forgotten in a few decades.

Don't be Afraid.

Something Wonderful Will Happen.

zzyzzx says

Israel hit one target each in Iraq and Syria, but Iran's nuclear assets are spread over multiple sites in different parts of the country. One is buried under concrete. Another is dug into a mountain. Surface-to-air missiles and electronic warfare systems protect them all.

They also are significantly farther away from Israel than the targets in Iraq or Syria.

And they may not be the only sites Israel would need to destroy to achieve its goal.

Bombing Iranian nuclear facilities would be "very complicated," said Ephraim Kam, deputy director of Israel's Institute for National Security Studies.

Just use Tomahawks.

About that screwing...

Europe Sets Up Payment Vehicle For Iran Trade To Sidestep U.S. Sanctions

After months of deliberations, European countries have set up the special payment channel to handle trade with Iran that would allow transactions with Iran, including oil, as the European Union (EU) still works to salvage the nuclear deal with Iran, German broadcaster NDR reported on Thursday.

Germany, France, and the UK have created the payment channel—

‘Instrument in Support Of Trade Exchanges’ (INSTEX)—which will be an alternative channel for transactions with Iran. INSTEX will be based in Paris and managed by an experienced German banker, while the UK will chair the vehicle’s supervisory board, according to the German broadcaster.

Months before the U.S. sanctions on Iran’s oil returned, the EU pledged to create a new payment system, the so-called special-purpose vehicle (SPV), that “will assist and provide reassurance to European businesses wishing to continue trading with Iran, mitigating the effect of re-imposed US sanctions, in accordance with European Law.”

The idea behind the SPV is to have it act as a clearing house into which buyers of Iranian oil would pay, allowing the EU to trade oil with Iran without having to directly pay the Islamic Republic.

Still, the bloc had been struggling for months with the set-up of such a vehicle because no EU member was willing to host it for fear of angering the United States, the Financial Times reported a week before the American sanctions on Iran returned.

The EU hoped that the payment mechanism would be legally in place by the time the U.S. sanctions on Iran returned, but the vehicle was not expected to be operational until early this year.

This week, on Monday, Germany’s Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said that the vehicle “will be registered, it has not yet been registered, but I would say that the implementation of our plan is imminent,” the AP reported.

The French Foreign Ministry told CNN on Thursday that a joint statement regarding the payment vehicle would be sent out later in the day when the foreign ministers of the EU meet in Romania’s capital Bucharest.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Europe-Sets-Up-Payment-Vehicle-For-Iran-Trade-To-Sidestep-US-Sanctions.html

Perhaps the reference about being screwed is what happened to the Dotard when he met with Kim. The Art of the Non-Deal once again.

Kim lied about his nukes and the Dotard is still in love with him and wants to meet again so he can reduce sanctions on North Korea and for his part Kim will just have to agree with a mind numbing series of photo ops and go heavy on the flattery and ego stroking for the Dotard.

For all you wanna be bomb droppers on the forum Iran is taking full advantage of the distraction in Venezuela so hold off on the celebration of their demise and how badly they were supposed to be screwed.

willywonka says

Let’s keep nukes out of the Middle East.

Might want to keep an eye on goings on in KSA - just sayin.

MisterLearnToCode says

Something Wonderful Will Happen.

Is this the work around the EU is putting in place to circumvent the Dotard's sanctions ?

Kakistocracy says

Europe Sets Up Payment Vehicle For Iran Trade To Sidestep U.S. Sanctions

Yep, just like they did with Saddam and everybody else. We pay and we deal with all the problems, so they have no incentive not to cheat.

Sanctions are designed to achieve compliance w/o bombs or boots on the ground. By circumventing the former the fucking morons are inviting the latter. Or, at the very minimum, massive explosion of nuclear states. After all, if fucking mad ayatollahs hell-bent on destroying a whole country of Israel and not even hiding it are considered to be suitable for owning nukes in 10 years, why democratic and peaceful countries like Japan or Ukraine should be denied? And can you really make a straight-face argument for denying nukes ownership to SA
after you enable nuclear Iran? Can't really use "they are religious fanatics" argument anymore.