patrick.net

The flu sickens more than 10 million Americans each year and kills between 5000-50000 or more Americans every year and many more worldwide. Just to put this into perspective. Have a Corona without the virus.

Around 2000 cases, 56 deaths.

That is WAAAAAY higher mortality rate than the flu or any other virus that isn’t behind the walls of a maximum containment facility. That’s almost 3%.

Check out this short video clip explaining the coronavirus. I think this virus is underestimated. The incubation period is 5 days or so. By the time we know about it, it’s days 9-14. I hope our minimal US infected numbers hold, or our government should consider banning all flights from China if it gets worse. I hope I am wrong.

There are some info floating out there in Chinese with the medical staff claiming the actual infected people in China is over 90,000.

www.youtube.com/embed/Nk5P_iRYwTY

This is scary.
I’m gonna be a hermit for a while I think, no crowds for me.

Here’s the article where a nurse treating coronavirus claimed 90,000 people infected.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7929657/Nurse-treating-coronavirus-sufferers-China-claims-90-000-people-infected.html

From the article:

“The news was announced on Saturday as three doctors in Beijing were reported to have been infected with the coronavirus, according to state media China National Radio. Among the three confirmed cases, which were diagnosed on Tuesday and Saturday, two were back from Wuhan and the third did not go there but was sitting next to one doctor back from Wuhan in a meeting in Beijing.”

Sitting next to someone who is infected got him infected. The infected doctor was likely during the incubation period where he showed no sign of fever or whatsoever.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047655/chinas-communist-party-sets-leading-group-handle-coronavirus

Cases in OC CA.

So, who here is stocking up on N95 masks?

Heraclitusstudent says

Around 2000 cases, 56 deaths.

Am I the only one that sees what a huge nothing burger this virus is. 2000 cases for a bug that spread around China, Asia, Europe and America.
That's nothing, not even microscopic in global scheme of things.

HeadSet says

So, who here is stocking up on N95 masks?

Ha was just talking to coworker about putting in an order to Granger, its FOB city around here.

Tenpoundbass says

Heraclitusstudent says

Around 2000 cases, 56 deaths.

Am I the only one that sees what a huge nothing burger this virus is. 2000 cases for a bug that spread around China, Asia, Europe and America.
That's nothing, not even microscopic in global scheme of things.

I'd agree if accurate numbers are being given. This thing has two week incubation period that gives it a long time to move around and spread. Going to cull a lot of elderly and people with other conditions if it goes wild.

Edit: Was wrong incubation only 3days

RC2006 says

Tenpoundbass says

Heraclitusstudent says

Around 2000 cases, 56 deaths.

Am I the only one that sees what a huge nothing burger this virus is. 2000 cases for a bug that spread around China, Asia, Europe and America.
That's nothing, not even microscopic in global scheme of things.

I'd agree if accurate numbers are being given. This thing has two week incubation period that gives it a long time to move around and spread. Going to cull a lot of elderly and people with other conditions if it goes wild.

Edit: Was wrong incubation only 3days

The numbers may be underreported in China but not here, and though it seems highly infectious (mouth and potentially eyes) it still is less infectious than Ebola and the flu. So it seems very exaggerated at this point. It may unfortunately get a lot of older and immunocompromised people in China but can't see it making a dent in the Western world - so far all the patients in the Western world are either stable or doing well. Definitely flight restrictions and quarantines are in order though until we know more.

RC2006 says

HeadSet says

So, who here is stocking up on N95 masks?

Ha was just talking to coworker about putting in an order to Granger, its FOB city around here.

Unless you're in a hospital setting or maybe public transit, very close proximity with bad ventilation masks are a waste. Just avoid crowds and wash your hands at all times, esp. before touching your face. Same precautions as for the flu.

So far the growth is around 60% a day.

Projecting this, it will be a million cases in 2 weeks.

They will ban travels to Asia unless absolutely necessary, ask people to work from home where they can, and maybe close schools.

mell says

RC2006 says

HeadSet says

So, who here is stocking up on N95 masks?

Ha was just talking to coworker about putting in an order to Granger, its FOB city around here.

Unless you're in a hospital setting or maybe public transit, very close proximity with bad ventilation masks are a waste. Just avoid crowds and wash your hands at all times, esp. before touching your face. Same precautions as for the flu.

I was just going to wear one to be an asshole, then use it for bathroom demo.

Heraclitusstudent says

So far the growth is around 60% a day.

Projecting this, it will be a million cases in 2 weeks.

They will ban travels to Asia unless absolutely necessary, ask people to work from home where they can, and maybe close schools.

They should. Most business travel to Asia here from the bay area has already been canceled. It's been growing at a faster rate in China of course since it was undiagnosed for a while and due to the proximity of so many people to each other. It won't reach a million cases if the Chinese numbers are anywhere near accurate.

Of course Zh speculates up to "5MM potential carriers" have left the Wuhan region already. Best quote is this though:

"After Friday's selloff, we imagine investors will be paying close attention to news out of Wuhan as it completely overshadows other 'important' domestic news stories, like the Dems impeachment debacle, or the fact that Bernie Sanders is now on track to win Iowa and New Hampshire."

Anybody care for the impeachment trial? No. lol

China is asshoe!

Booger says

China is asshoe!

best password ever!

Heraclitusstudent says

So far the growth is around 60% a day.

Projecting this, it will be a million cases in 2 weeks.

They will ban travels to Asia unless absolutely necessary, ask people to work from home where they can, and maybe close schools.

Not saying you're wrong at all, but what are your sources? I don't believe shit that comes out of China. They have the tech and knowledge to track this stuff, but I don't trust that they use it correctly, whether intentionally so or by stupidity of who they put in charge of tracking it. My guess is the numbers are vastly underreported and maybe they're catching up with their bullshit.

I also don't trust medical or mortality statistics for any country. Like you voluntarily admit that people have a higher probability of death by living there versus other places.

Two sick now in Socal, now just waiting for the first case here in the Bay Area. With the diversity here and world travel the way it is I guarantee there's someone here with the virus.

https://www.sfgate.com/news/medical/article/Health-officials-confirm-case-of-new-virus-in-15005174.php

May well be spread by eating bats:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7920573/Revolting-footage-shows-Chinese-woman-eating-bat-scientists-link-coronavirus-animal.html

Patrick says

May well be spread by eating bats:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7920573/Revolting-footage-shows-Chinese-woman-eating-bat-scientists-link-coronavirus-animal.html

This is Trump's fault. With the trade war we weren't selling as much grain to China. So they had to eat bats.....

Just wait, someone is going to come out with this if it is in fact determined it's from bats.

I'm Ace Ventura. I think bats are about the only animal that completely freaks the fuck out of me. I wouldn't even want to be near a dead one. I know I'm going to sound like a crazy mother fucker, but I can hear bats and that's ultimately why I hate them. Spine tingling/nails on chalk board.

Fucking Chinese need to leave the fucking wildlife the fuck alone. Stop craving tiger penises, pangolin scales, shark fins, bats, snakes, monkey brains and other disgusting stuff which is neither tasty nor good for you but is popular because of superstitions and/or because it shows that you are wealthy enough to afford to eat this weird shit. Enough of this silliness!

WookieMan says

I'm Ace Ventura. I think bats are about the only animal that completely freaks the fuck out of me.

Me too...Last time I saw one, I killed it with a shovel.

80 deaths (40% increase).
World cases count not mentioned. But 5 in the US.

www.youtube.com/embed/s7OJYtRJY0k

They are like insects, if we came across this it would be completely different reaction.

This virus has a relatively long incubation period during which people are not really sick and don't have fever but can infect others. Given this, how do you track cases that may have spread for some time all over the world, and may be incorrectly labeled as pneumonia of some kind.
If the containment measures are working, we will see a graduation reduction in the reported cases.
If not, we will see new the virus popup in more places and the number of cases jump.

RC2006 says

www.youtube.com/embed/s7OJYtRJY0k

Gross!

Does anyone know what the typical compound growth rates are for viruses, like influenza?

Going from 201 to 1300 in 5 days is a compound daily growth rate of ~45%

I know this is a small data sample, but compound growth at a rate like that is crazy. With that said, I wouldn't be surprised if the flu had growth spurts like that too during peak times in the winter. But to imagine if growth compounded at a rate near this for a few weeks....holy shit.



HeadSet says

So, who here is stocking up on N95 masks?

I ordered some on wed, but they're backordered for 1 more week.

I already stockpile food (few hundred lbs of beans/rice/etc) and some water, so I'm good there. But I think I'm going to start stockpiling other stuff too in preparation of the near future. If this thing really takes off, I want to have plenty of supplies so that I don't need to go out into contaminated retail stores, as well as accept contaminated delivery boxes into my home. I want to get it now/soon while there's no worry about a sick UPS driver, or sick employees making my products. If things got really bad, not only could it be risky to expose yourself to sick people in public, but sick people, or scared people, may stop going to work, which will break down supply chains, making supplies harder to get.

Ima git it while the gettins good.

Ima git it while the gettins good.

Do not forget the bleach.

Today death toll climbs to 106
Confirmed cases in China soars to 4,515

Death toll is only ~30% higher than yesterday. But # of cases up 65% in 1 day from 2,744 yesterday.

Odd there is no talk about a vaccine.

Vaccines will take months - if not a year.

HeadSet says

Odd there is no talk about a vaccine.

Don't think it happens that fast. I'd think months at the minimum. Various biotechs said to be working on it.