patrick.net

Heraclitusstudent says

It's slowly dawning on me that this thing just isn't going to be stopped.

So?
Heraclitusstudent says

It's more contagious than the flu and no one tries to stop the flu.

So?
Heraclitusstudent says

China tried with draconian measures and still failed.

And?
Heraclitusstudent says

It will just be slowed and minimized. The main problem initially will be the overwhelmed health services.

Not here.
Heraclitusstudent says

Otherwise we will just have to learn to live in a world where you have a small chance of being killed by a cold.

As we always have...

We're all at risk of dying from a multitude of things. You first have to get infected. As of today there something like a 0.0000005% chance of even getting infected. From there you have to die. So we're now talking 0.0000000000000005% of the worlds population (I'm making this up, but probably not that far off). This is so overblown it's not comical anymore.

Fortunately, all Americans get at least 3 weeks of sick time per year, and anyone feeling under the weather, will stay home so as to not spread the disease. Also, our hospitals (based on market fundamentals) have huge capacities of excess staffed beds available to accommodate any local spike in numbers of people needing treatment.

In communist China they could simply order people to obey. In capitalist America...bills must be paid and it will spread quite rapidly and out healthcare system could rapidly become overwhelmed. Hopefully, better weather will make it dissipate somewhat until a vaccine can be made, but yeah expect it to be reoccurring on a somewhat yearly basis.

jazz_music says

According to Harvard's lead epidemiologist yesterday interview on CBS millions will die. Higher risk in the older age group.

No shit. They're more likely to die from a ton of shit. That doesn't make CV some huge problem though. We keep people alive too long just because we want to see them sitting in a fucking chair or bed rotting away. It's inhumane.

jazz_music says

Your estimate is off approximately as follows: 100% * 5,000,000 / 8,000,000,000 = 0.06% ± 0.03% of the world population.

Huh? I admittedly said I was making my percentage up. But are you estimating 5M DEATHS worldwide? We don't even have 100k cases in the entire WORLD at this point. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

That's 0.0000125% having the virus currently. 3,200 deaths currently puts us at 0.000000402% roughly. This is world population. While I exaggerated, I'm substantially closer to reality than whatever your math is.

jazz_music says

That opinion is beyond uncivilized to barbarian and indecent.

Nope. If you're 60+, not you specifically, be happy you made it that long. I have friends that lost kids to regular influenza at the age of 2. They didn't get to live their life. Kids that have cancer and have died. Didn't get to live their life. While I don't wish it upon anyone, I could give zero fucks about old people dying and that will include myself once I get there (if I do). We all meet the same ending. I'm happy that I've made it almost 40 years. A lot of people don't....

theoakman says

We also know that millions of people in the US right now have the flu. 11 have corona virus. Do the math.

I'm amused by people who don't understand exponentials. "0.0000000000000005% of the worlds population"!!!
Now it's 128 in the US.

The Chinese Working Class in an interior city resembling 19th Century Conditions != Typical American Lifestyle.

In fact the typical Bastard Factory in the Inner City lives a far better life with Medicaid, Shower/Bath in their Section 8 unshared with anybody and hot water, hand sanitizers in every supermarket and not infrequently in 711s.

Unlike one cold water tap and toilet shared for 5 families like in China.

It's been re-named the "Pitchfork Virus" and is now endorsed by NHS and Social Security. "A Better World For The Survivors! You, too, basement dwelling MILLXY, can be an inheritor!"

Heraclitusstudent says

theoakman says

We also know that millions of people in the US right now have the flu. 11 have corona virus. Do the math.

I'm amused by people who don't understand exponentials. "0.0000000000000005% of the worlds population"!!!
Now it's 128 in the US.

I understand it perfectly. What will it be by May? Greater growth rate does not outweigh the starting size. There is more than one parameter in an exponential growth function.

theoakman says

Heraclitusstudent says

theoakman says

We also know that millions of people in the US right now have the flu. 11 have corona virus. Do the math.

I'm amused by people who don't understand exponentials. "0.0000000000000005% of the worlds population"!!!
Now it's 128 in the US.

I understand it perfectly. What will it be by May?

This who recover have been outnumbering those who contract it for days now - worldwide. Just counting the numbers of people ever infected does not give you any proper assessment of the remaining contagion. Soon most from the Cruise will have recovered and be released, taking the count down by what, 40 or 50? Even right now most who get sick have a travel history with one of those countries. Unexplained community spread is at what like 10 cases? This is a serious contagious illness but I don't see it turning into a pandemic, neither does the WHO for now.

Even worse with the leftoids we've been hearing how Globull Warming will cause menacing viruses from hotter climates to invade our colder Western nations. While little but some of that happened now it seems we have the opposite situation, a dangerous (likely seasonal cold) virus that could see its spread significantly reduced by warmer weather and Globull warming can't come fast enough to this cold west coast winter. We're finally seeing some spring temperatures but the leftists may hate Globull warming even more now ;)

Heraclitusstudent says

I'm amused by people who don't understand exponentials.

Hockey sticks, right? 100% fact?

An exponential is a geometric, only worse.

jazz_music says

I'm substantially closer to reality than whatever your math is.

You have no basis whatsoever to say that.

You have no basis to say 5M people are going to die from this. I don't care what some Harvard snob says. All our coasts were supposed to be 10' under water by now according to the "scholars." You seem blinded by the idea that EVERYONE has an agenda. Maybe start recognizing that you're being sold shit. This likely will likely cause fewer deaths than your typical influenza strain. Especially in the young where it actually matters.

The old and sick are a fucking drain on the worlds economy outside of medicine. Maybe start to question why this is being hyped up so much with the massive boomer generation susceptible to this virus. Just think about it. The hype.

jazz_music says

Not even president sniffles, das gropenfuhrer.

C'mon Man, Biden ain't President yet.

Ceffer says

An exponential is a geometric, only worse.

The geometrics are coming?!

Put on your safety goggles!

jazz_music says

WookieMan says

I don't care what some Harvard snob says

You will not find anyone better informed to report on the subject. Period.

Not even president sniffles, das gropenfuhrer.

So 40-70% of all people will be infected by this time next year.

One person out of every 1,000 - 2,000 is likely to die from this.

Events will be canceled and schools will be closed, but the virus is likely to not be contained regardless of all that.

That’s why one of the worst aspects is that many cases the symptoms are minimal. The other worst fact is our present inability to test.

Do you ever get tired of being colosally wrong?

I predict that by this time next year most of us will have had corona virus, and gotten over it without much fanfare.

Jazz is actually right... it can’t be contained for long. It’s too fucking contagious and people walk around without symptoms for a week before they get a cough. It will spread

NoCoupForYou says

Trump's USA - proving that border controls are more effective than "I'd like to teach the world to sing, in perfect harmony"

Which BTW, turned into a Coca-Cola commercial ...

www.youtube.com/embed/1VM2eLhvsSM

jazz_music says

One person out of every 1,000 - 2,000 is likely to die from this.

WookieMan says

You have no basis to say 5M people are going to die from this.

So 1 in 1000-2000 out of 400 million is 200,000-400,000 people who may die of this. Chances are that most of them will be elderly on the way out anyway.

Shaman says

I predict that by this time next year most of us will have had corona virus, and gotten over it without much fanfare.

Jazz is actually right... it can’t be contained for long. It’s too fucking contagious and people walk around without symptoms for a week before they get a cough. It will spread

This is a very unlikely scenario unless it is so mild that most cases go undetected and mistake as common cold, but then the death rate is insignificant as in extremely low. Will we evolve and one year or another perhaps get the coronavirus as it may return seasonally? Likely, esp. for younger more mobile people. That will also build up immunity for those to come after us. However for this season a pandemic is currently unlikely, even per WHO. Now they may change their stance if there are new developments, bit so far even in China only a small fraction of the population contracted it (after drastic containment measures).

jazz_music says

Shaman says

So 1 in 1000-2000 out of 400 million is 200,000-400,000

No, that’s incorrect.

The current prognosis is 1 in 1000-2000 members of the human race.

1,000-2,000? Is this a joke? You're talking a 100% difference within the estimate. Just admit this is pure guesswork at this point. It's been around since December at least and we're mid March practically. If it was that contagious we'd have substantially more than 80-100k people infected. Again, only infected. Mostly in China. Check out population densities. You're not acknowledging the hype and relying on Chinese data. 1M out of 1B people should be infected in China alone if this was a problem.

It's not a problem. I think some are showing their age here....

jazz_music says

1,000-2,000? Is this a joke

No, it’s ONE DEAD from every 1,000 to 2,000 humans.

So the joke stands. A range of 1 out of 1,000 to 2,000 is fucking hysterical. Just admit that no one knows that data. Admit this isn't a big fucking deal. Put it this way, let's say it's 10 out of 10,000 to 20,000. That's a fucking 10k variance. That's complete guessing and not statistical data. That's where we're at with this. It's complete bull shit.

WookieMan says

jazz_music says

Shaman says

So 1 in 1000-2000 out of 400 million is 200,000-400,000

No, that’s incorrect.

The current prognosis is 1 in 1000-2000 members of the human race.

1,000-2,000? Is this a joke? You're talking a 100% difference within the estimate. Just admit this is pure guesswork at this point. It's been around since December at least and we're mid March practically. If it was that contagious we'd have substantially more than 80-100k people infected. Again, only infected. Mostly in China. Check out population densities. You're not acknowledging the hype and relying on Chinese data. 1M out of 1B people should be infected in China alone if this was a problem.

It's not a problem. I think some are showing their age here....

lol but age is no excuse - they should be old enough to remember when mad cow disease was supposed to devour a big chunk of the human race according to "epidemiologists" - one of my friends had just gotten back from the UK and ate at a McDonalds there and he was in psychological agony for months and developed neurosis and social anxieties (of course instead of MCD) and such just from those "predictions". Ah yes and Trumps election was guaranteed to crash the stock market.

Oh yes and AIDS was supposed to kill a big chunk of the world population as well since some "epidemiologists" theorized HIV can be spread at the hair dresser or barber (scissors, combs etc.) or bites from flies and other insects, leading to mass panics and mass accusations. Turned out even in unprotected sex the change of transfer was 1 to a few thousand, lesser for anal and the rougher you get. But yeah HIV was another one to doom humanity.

mell says

they should be old enough to remember when mad cow disease was supposed to devour a big chunk of the human race according to "epidemiologists" - one of my friends had just gotten back from the UK and ate at a McDonalds there and he was in psychological agony for months and developed neurosis and social anxieties (of course instead of MCD) and such just from those "predictions". Ah yes and Trumps election was guaranteed to crash the stock market.

Y2K!!!

CBOEtrader says

mell says

they should be old enough to remember when mad cow disease was supposed to devour a big chunk of the human race according to "epidemiologists" - one of my friends had just gotten back from the UK and ate at a McDonalds there and he was in psychological agony for months and developed neurosis and social anxieties (of course instead of MCD) and such just from those "predictions". Ah yes and Trumps election was guaranteed to crash the stock market.

Y2K!!!

Ah yes that one too, the preppers were out in full force there as well! Truth be told, even I expected a few more serious problems and was stupefied by how little went wrong.

And just last week, all polls and papers were predicting a serious Super Tuesday victory for Bernie....

Mutating like a mofo. The bioinformatics here:

https://nextstrain.org/ncov

just_dregalicious says

Mutating like a mofo. The bioinformatics here:

https://nextstrain.org/ncov

Interesting how that plot shows NOTHING in Iran.

Prolly no strain data

More people have had their hair sniffed by Joe Biden than have died from the Corona Virus in the US.

WookieMan says

So the joke stands. A range of 1 out of 1,000 to 2,000 is fucking hysterical. Just admit that no one knows that data. Admit this isn't a big fucking deal. Put it this way, let's say it's 10 out of 10,000 to 20,000. That's a fucking 10k variance. That's complete guessing and not statistical data. That's where we're at with this. It's complete bull shit.

Like every poll too? And the data on amount of homeless? Pretty much all "data" from the MSM.

komputodo says

Like every poll too? And the data on amount of homeless? Pretty much all "data" from the MSM.

Yup, it's almost as if simple math is Chinese to them... lol. Or, like I'd probably guess, they manipulate it with "variables" and "what if" type data to shape the story.

It's like the difference between 1 and 2 doesn't seem all that dramatic. So they use lower numbers, 1k-2k. The difference between say 1M and 2M people dying is astronomical though. It's double the fucking number of deaths by one fucking million. That's not a rounding error or within a typical margin of error.

Been on the phone today, getting lots of event cancellations. People are telling me left and right that the illness responsible for 15-30% of the common cold diagnosis in the United States is like the Fucking Andromeda Strain.

This is why we need the Irresponsible Fearmonging Regulation

Everytime the media mentions a Disease, they must mention the CDC US official death rate or an official CDC statement at the beginning and end of the segment, such as "Less than 1% and almost only among the elderly and severe immune compromised. Just wash your hands and stay home if you're sick" or be fined $10M per incident by the FCC.