patrick.net

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375

Covid-19: four fifths of cases are asymptomatic, China figures indicate

New evidence has emerged from China indicating that the large majority of coronavirus infections do not result in symptoms.

Chinese authorities began publishing daily figures on 1 April on the number of new coronavirus cases that are asymptomatic, with the first day’s figures suggesting that around four in five coronavirus infections caused no illness. Many experts believe that unnoticed, asymptomatic cases of coronavirus infection could be an important source of contagion.

A total of 130 of 166 new infections (78%) identified in the 24 hours to the afternoon of Wednesday 1 April were asymptomatic, said China’s National Health Commission. And most of the 36 cases in which patients showed symptoms involved arrivals from overseas, down from 48 the previous day, the commission said.

China is rigorously testing arrivals from overseas for fear of importing a fresh outbreak of covid-19.

Tom Jefferson, an epidemiologist and honorary research fellow at the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said the findings were “very, very important.” He told The BMJ, “The sample is small, and more data will become available. Also, it’s not clear exactly how these cases were identified. But let’s just say they are generalisable. And even if they are 10% out, then this suggests the virus is everywhere. If—and I stress, if—the results are representative, then we have to ask, ‘What the hell are we locking down for?’”

Jefferson said that it was quite likely that the virus had been circulating for longer than generally believed and that large swathes of the population had already been exposed.

https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=238773

The only people who should be under "shelter in place" orders are those with one or more of these listed conditions; nobody else has any reason to be so-constrained. Everyone who has such a condition knows they do.

Then there was last night's Laura Ingraham show with an ICU doctor as a guest. He's had a decent number of patients wind up on vents with this virus. Every single one was overweight or obese and either diabetic or pre-diabetic.

Every
Single
One.

He's now started at admission treating all with hydroxychloroquine and Zpak and since starting that program immediately on admission says he has not had one wind up on a vent.

Anecdote? Yes.

Is 100% success unacceptable without a "double blind" study? May I remind you that to do such a study you have to kill people since you will consign some number of people to not get the drug and they will wind up on vents and die!

Why would any sane human being not want that count to be zero? If you do not instantly demand this happen across the medical system everywhere in the United States you are a murderous monster and deserve a Nuremberg-style outcome when we're done with this -- and as God is my witness you're going to get one too.

Are there any "Healthy At Any Size" screamers left or are you all on vents with most of you dying? Would anyone like to argue about the facts on this any more? I've only been on this kick since 2011 raising hell about it. I was on that track to become either diabetic or pre-diabetic and obese as well. I no longer am. Gee, that was a choice. Guess what -- it now has dramatically lowered my risk of winding up dead when, not if, I get this virus.

I do not owe you literal imprisonment in my home because of your voluntary choice.

But even for those who didn't make that choice we have options. We have an apparently effective treatment. We know what it is. It won't work for everyone but it sure looks like it works for almost everyone. If we use it that way then poof goes the "overload" claims and thus also poof goes any and all justification for "shelter in place", "lockdowns" and all other manner of bull****.

New evidence has emerged from China indicating that the large majority of coronavirus infections do not result in symptoms.

The fact that the evidence "comes from China" makes it suspect. I would prefer to see the results from South Korea, Japan, England, or Italy when those results are taken from mass testing that includes non-symptomatic people. The Chinese may have a motive in putting out "80% no symptoms" and thus "the virus has been around longer than suspected." By putting out these "facts," the Chinese can say CV-19 has been all over the world for some time, and only was noticed in Wuhan first.

Italy tested a whole small town and found that 50% to 75% of infected people there showed no symptoms. So it's consistent.

This is getting to be a real threat to our civil liberties:

https://twitchy.com/sarah-313035/2020/04/03/is-this-really-about-the-virus-anymore-crazy-footage-of-paddle-boarder-arrested-for-violating-california-stay-at-home-order-by-being-alone-on-the-ocean-video/

Italy tested a whole small town and found that 50% to 75% of infected people there showed no symptoms. So it's consistent.

Excellent! I would like to see research done on any correlation on items like age, smoker, overweight, etc on those who get symptoms and those who do not. They may find more good to know stuff similar to the ibuprofen discovery.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/after-mocking-trump-promoting-hydroxychloroquine-media-acknowleges-might-treat-coronavirus

Aren't most if not all viruses chinese in origin?
In this case calling it "the chinese virus" lacks specificity.
Patrick says

Numerous outlets including CNN, Buzzfeed, and The Washington Post have called the illness the “Wuhan coronavirus” or the “Chinese coronavirus.” But since President Donald Trump started calling it the “Chinese virus,” some of the same outlets have warned that such a name constitutes racist language.

Hausmeister T says

Good god this slob is part of the problem. Too dumb to clean up your fucking hands before making a meme? Fucking gross ass fingernails. This hand looks like AIDS.

Vermont Cutting Off Supply Chain: Big Box Retailers Ordered to Cease In-Person Sales of Non-Essential Items.

https://accd.vermont.gov/press-releases/agency-commerce-and-community-development-directs-%E2%80%9Cbig-box%E2%80%9D-retailers-cease-person


I’m not one to be an alarmist, but this shit can bubble up to be some kind of civil war. If you take a bunch of people that are largely fine, tell them there’s a vague illness out there that’s basically the flu, put them out of work, try forcing them to stay home, and then cut off all their supplies, they’re going to riot at some point.

Plywood will soon be deemed non-essential items .. dem constituents are entitled to their 65" big screens and $150 sneakers in times like this

WookieMan says

Fucking gross ass fingernails. This hand looks like AIDS.

Mine look worse on the regular, but I’m a mechanic so that’s natural.

Anecdotal reports from the front lines:

Jogged by a testing station around 9:30 am and it was completely empty. SF/CA got this as long as LA gets it under control. SF currently has about 500 cases for their roughly 1MM population.

Ant in Italy in her 70s had fever and cough for weeks and tested positive, but no pneumonia. After they gave her Zithromax she recovered instantly and has been fever free for almost 14 days. BF of similar age was admitted to the hospital with beginning pneumonia but also is recovering after getting Zithromax. Most have blood type 0 which may help according to initial studies.

Old people without masks or trash bag armor, who are being screamed at in Walmart, have died of stress heart attacks. They are being counted as Covid-19 deaths.

Shaman says

WookieMan says

Fucking gross ass fingernails. This hand looks like AIDS.

Mine look worse on the regular, but I’m a mechanic so that’s natural.

Oh my finger nails get nasty too. If I'm going to make a meme or take a photo that was likely sent to other people, I'd at least clean up as best I can. That was more of the point. It was literally the first thing I noticed before reading what the meme was about.

The vast majority of the CA cases are in LA, 35% of total. The rest is doing relatively OK. SF grew by 6% yesterday, so curve is flattening more rapidly now in the bay area.

The initial dose of the virus seems to be very important:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/these-coronavirus-exposures-might-be-the-most-dangerous/ar-BB122vLd

The importance of viral dose is being overlooked in discussions of the coronavirus. As with any other poison, viruses are usually more dangerous in larger amounts. Small initial exposures tend to lead to mild or asymptomatic infections, while larger doses can be lethal.

From a policy perspective, we need to consider that not all exposures to the coronavirus may be the same. Stepping into an office building that once had someone with the coronavirus in it is not as dangerous as sitting next to that infected person for an hourlong train commute.

This may seem obvious, but many people are not making this distinction. We need to focus more on preventing high-dose infection.

Patrick says

This is why I was thinking that we should see growth in deaths drop before growth in total cases. But that's not what the experts say will happen. In any case you can watch the number of deaths, if you think that increased testing causing exaggerated numbers of new cases.

Probably only increased testing of asymptomatic cases would cause hat he's suggesting.

Patrick says

Italy tested a whole small town and found that 50% to 75% of infected people there showed no symptoms. So it's consistent.

That seems to bear out locally as well:

Europe continues to decline in cases, Spain had lowest deaths since March 26. The US leftoid lamestream media are still dooming and glooming the shit out of orange man bad!s country cause they hate America and are rooting for deaths and recession.

7% growth in SF yesterday. Probably still mostly backlogged testing coming in. Backlog reduced from 60k to 13k tests for CA. So in the coming days the increases for CA will become more representative as the backlog vanishes.

Since the Democrats want to load these stimulus bills with their political agenda, Republicans should put Voter ID in the next one.

There was a pop up testing clinic that started here Friday. For $75 you can get a test now no questions asked which will see if you’ve had it already, or maybe are getting over it, in 15 minutes. They also offered a currently sick test which takes 2 days and cost $125. They did it out of your car in a large drive through line. The line was ridiculously long, lots of nice cars full of people who probably had health insurance. But testing just hasn’t been available. So people are willing to pay out of pocket to know. The testing center said they found 30 cases in 3 hours the first day.
On a personal note: I got the antibody test and nope I have not had the Rona. Something to look forward to I guess! Not.

Shaman says

There was a pop up testing clinic that started here Friday. For $75 you can get a test now no questions asked which will see if you’ve had it already, or maybe are getting over it, in 15 minutes. They also offered a currently sick test which takes 2 days and cost $125. They did it out of your car in a large drive through line. The line was ridiculously long, lots of nice cars full of people who probably had health insurance. But testing just hasn’t been available. So people are willing to pay out of pocket to know. The testing center said they found 30 cases in 3 hours the first day.
On a personal note: I got the antibody test and nope I have not had the Rona. Something to look forward to I guess! Not.

Told ya ;) We have the tents at major hospitals. Jogged by one yesterday and it was empty but it may have been busier later that day. Those AB tests are good they should enable people with proven ABs to return to work and play asap.

Shaman says

There was a pop up testing clinic that started here Friday. For $75 you can get a test now no questions asked which will see if you’ve had it already, or maybe are getting over it, in 15 minutes. They also offered a currently sick test which takes 2 days and cost $125. They did it out of your car in a large drive through line. The line was ridiculously long, lots of nice cars full of people who probably had health insurance. But testing just hasn’t been available. So people are willing to pay out of pocket to know. The testing center said they found 30 cases in 3 hours the first day.
On a personal note: I got the antibody test and nope I have not had the Rona. Something to look forward to I guess! Not.

Do you have a link or ad or something?

The media has people so twisted that people were calling me an idiot and much worse when I said everyone will be able to get tested starting sometime late in April and that will really crush this because positive people will know to completely quarantine. I’d like to be able to let these mouth breathers know how horribly wrong they were.

Idiots really as they thought that President Trump caused the lack of tests.

Not really, but where are you based? This was Orange County at the Westminster mall off the 405, 9AM-12PM in the parking lot every day now I think.

CovfefeButDeadly says

Idiots really as they thought that President Trump caused the lack of tests.

It was the legacy FDA and CDC bureaucracies which insisted on banning all non approved tests at the start which was everything they hadn’t developed and they hadn’t developed anything yet that worked or was in any way efficient. Trump has been working to cut through that red tape and expedite matters, dragging the needle dicks along by their scrotums to get their jobs done.

The tests they are giving at the mall parking lot are from China. The doctor in charge there got FDA acquiescence if not approval to run these tests.

French test:

https://www.lemonde.fr/planete/live/2020/04/05/coronavirus-aux-etats-unis-trump-annonce-une-periode-qui-va-etre-vraiment-horrible_6035613_3244.html

Le coronavirus en direct : plus de 520 nouveaux morts en Italie, le bilan quotidien le plus bas depuis plus de deux semaines

Les nouveaux chiffres de la mortalité en Italie, où le bilan total frôle les 16 000 décès, laissent espérer un ralentissement de l’épidémie. Dans les autres pays d’Europe, comme en Italie, les autorités craignent un relâchement du confinement.

Let's see, maybe this:

The coronavirus directly: more than 520 new deaths in Italy, the lowest daily balance in two weeks

The new numbers for the mortality in Italy, where the total number of deaths is 16,000, lets one hope for a relenting in the epidemic. In the other countries of Europe, like in Italy, the authorities consider a relaxing of confinement.

Now an online translation to check it:

Coronavirus live: more than 520 new deaths in Italy, the lowest daily toll for more than two weeks

New figures for mortality in Italy, where the total toll is close to 16,000, suggest that the epidemic will slow down. In other European countries, such as Italy, the authorities fear a loosening of containment.

OK, "consider" was a mistake in translation, darn. Should be that authorities fear a loosening of containment.

https://spectator.us/many-people-covid-19-dont-even-know/

That is the point made by Tom Jefferson and Carl Heneghen of Oxford University’s Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, who did not mince their words when they wrote on the center’s website last Monday: ‘Lockdown is going to bankrupt all of us and our descendants and is unlikely at this point to slow or halt viral circulation as the genie is out of the bottle. What the current situation boils down to is this: is economic meltdown a price worth paying to halt or delay what is already amongst us?’

In reaction to the latest data from China, Jefferson goes even further. Noting that the data sample is very small, and thus there is room for some doubt, he tells the BMJ: ‘And even if they are 10 percent out, then this suggests the virus is everywhere. If — and I stress, if — the results are representative, then we have to ask, “What the hell are we locking down for?”’

At the minimum let those that recovered or tested positive for antibodies go back out right away. There's no use for those peole to quarantine at all. Then let the 60 and younger non high risk people out given they wear face masks whenever possible.

Shaman says

Not really, but where are you based? This was Orange County at the Westminster mall off the 405, 9AM-12PM in the parking lot every day now I think.

Ok.