patrick.net

BoomAndBustCycle says

Just be grateful this is basically a dry run for a far worse pandemic in a few years.

Agreed.

But I'm afraid the virus that will get us is the one we don't see coming. It's probably gonna cause bleedin' from the eyes or an unquenchable hunger for live human flesh rather than a cough and a headache.

Onvacation says

BoomAndBustCycle says

Trump downplaying the concerns of healthcare workers is shameful. If 2-3% of otherwise healthy nurses and doctors die from being overly exposed to this virus that's on poor logistics.

Really? Trump is responsible for the (hypothetical) deaths of health workers that die from the Corona virus? If I were a health care worker I would be responsible for my own safety. And Trump can't be blamed for the lack of gloves and masks as much as the people that allowed so much of our economy to be outsourced to China and other polluting slave labor countries.

Agreed that was pure TDS. Also under normal conditions nurse is one of the best jobs, money and perks wise. If at all the globalist left is responsible for the lack of gear for the brave Healthcare workers. If Trump had been in office the last 20 years we'd be producing many more goods in the US and having far fewer supply chain issues.

If Trump had been in office the last 20 years we'd be producing many more goods in the US and having far fewer supply chain issues.

+1,000

Is this a hoax or what? https://ncov2019.live/data/asia Check out India 1 of the most filthiest, congested, near zero personal space not to mention the raw sewage and feces laden trails with a population of 1,352,642,280. How is this so?

HeadSet says

If Trump had been in office the last 20 years we'd be producing many more goods in the US and having far fewer supply chain issues.

+1,000

And we would be $100000 Trillion in debt after he bankrupted America for the 5th time.... like he did all his casinos.

mell says

Really? Trump is responsible for the (hypothetical) deaths of health workers that die from the Corona virus? If I were a health care worker I would be responsible for my own safety. And Trump can't be blamed for the lack of gloves and masks as much as the people that allowed so much of our economy to be outsourced to China and other polluting slave labor countries.

You enjoy sucking Trumps cock way too much! Yes he’s responsible... they are US citizens... any fucking CEO in America would take responsibility for his logistic failures... but not this moron in chief.

TL:DR - 2 deaths and 1 other confirmed case in my sphere is nothing for this virus. Two deaths and someone with the flu in a months time is pretty typical...

ThreeBays says

You said yourself you knew almost nobody confirmed with CV yet.

Huh? People that I personally know.... The two deaths are friends of friends and I only know of ONE other tested case that's totally alive. 3 total cases.... out of a 2nd level network that reaches easily into the thousands. And I again, I don't know these people at all.

The deaths were a friend's coworker in a large company my friend kind of knew and my babysitter's grandma, of which I've met neither of them. Read better. No one I PERSONALLY know has this. And between my wife and I that's a lot of people.

ThreeBays says

Sadly, lifting the lid would make everywhere look like New York in pretty short order.

There's not much evidence for this. There's demographic, living conditions, transmission rates, etc. 90% of which isn't understood. You don't have to believe me but I have contacts at high levels on the frontline (think Washington State). Yes this kills, but the virus has been amongst us for MONTHS. This thing called spring break happened. We then shut everything down. Where do you think the 18-25 year olds most likely went? Mom and Dad's house after having been in cruise ship like dorm rooms or partying in hotels across the country. Heck some live or stay with Grandma during down times. I sure that had nothing to do with our current spike...

Again, we can all agree it's deadly. The reaction has likely made this thing worse. Probably too late now, but 50+ people just stay home. Under 50 don't see those older than you. Keep up social distancing (the distance from each other aspect), maybe wear a mask if you're inclined, keep good hygiene, stay away from hospitals unless you're completely incapacitated and this would have likely already been water under the bridge with much less economic damage at this point.

Very few people are doing what I've listed above. As someone not reliant on work, I've done my part and only left my home 3 times, for essential items since March 15. So as of tomorrow once per week for a 3 week total.

Cash says

Is this a hoax or what? https://ncov2019.live/data/asia Check out India 1 of the most filthiest, congested, near zero personal space not to mention the raw sewage and feces laden trails with a population of 1,352,642,280. How is this so?

This is after massive Muslims Found Licking both sides of Spoons, Plates in restaurants (there are plenty of videos still online) and spitting on food, currency bills etc to Spread COVID-19 virus and spread throughout the country after international Muslim congregation in new Delhi last week by deifying lock down rule. Muslims are super filthy and spreaders on purpose.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostakovitch says

SHoot all the old people in the face and RALLY!

Always good for practical advice!

The stars on this graph show when national lock downs started.



They lock downs do not look like they changed the arc of the disease at all.

From https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

Patrick says

The stars on this graph show when national lock downs started.



They lock downs do not look like they changed the arc of the disease at all.

From

The problem is that likely many cases already circulated by that time and there's a testing overhang of days if not weeks since the rapid tests were just introduced. While not a big fan I do think the lockdowns are working, CA started way earlier than NY and is relatively flat now. A better way though would be to allow all recovered to go back to work and frolic and tell everyone else who hasn't had it to wear masks if they go mingle and to work. As well as maybe extend the SIP for people over a certain age and high risk groups while hospitals are busy. Also distribute Zithromax and chloroquine to every household to be taken on any signs of covid-19/pneumonia.

Patrick says

They lock downs do not look like they changed the arc of the disease at all.

Compared to what ?

Do you know what an exponential growth graph looks like ?

I guess it does appear to be true that doing the lock down didn't change the future from being what it would have been with the lock down. That's true. .

marcus says

Do you know what an exponential growth graph looks like ?

A hockey stick.

marcus says

I guess it does appear to be true that doing the lock down didn't change the future from being what it would have been with the lock down.

Your logic is irrefutable.

ThreeBays says

These are log based graphs

Good point.

jazz_music says

A year or 2 from now you should get a good fit of this infection history, for example, with a third or fourth order polynomial curve.

We've got some statisticians here.

:
Why not fit it to a logistic model. Isn't that what it is ?

jazz_music says

These are log based graphs. Fixed exponential growth looks like straight lines. Reduction in the steepness of the slope shows the exponent dropping.

I'm not sure if reliving calculus class or getting Corona virus would be worse.

marcus says

:
Why not fit it to a logistic model. Isn't that what it is ?

"Logistic" model? I know what you meant, I just find it funny because I have an MS in Logistics.

:
Yeah, entirely different use of the word. What kind of company do you work for now ?

jazz_music says

Malcolm says

ThreeBays says

These are log based graphs. Fixed exponential growth looks like straight lines. Reduction in the steepness of the slope shows the exponent dropping.

I'm not sure if reliving calculus class or getting Corona virus would be worse.

Three Bays said that, not me

Often it's in statistics that students learn about a log scale graph of an exponential curve being linear, becasue of transformations that are used to do linear regression on graphs that have clear patterns that aren't linear (for example if it is an exp growth or decay pattern)

marcus says

:
Yeah, entirely different use of the word. What kind of company do you work for now ?

When I was in the Air Force, I was taken from the cockpit and sent as a non-volunteer to Air Force Institute of Technology to get a MS in Logistics, even though I already had an MA in Management. I never really used this degree for the Air Force, but since it gave me 18 hrs in Statistics I was able to teach Statistics at Hampton University. I currently manage IT for a 300 vehicle taxi company, which involves an Uber like app with related databases, plus GPS dispatch, cashiering, accounting, and related IP networks and remote systems. What I am most proud of at the taxi company is that I put together a system where a blind call taker can work from home. Originally, I had to make a split headset where an advanced form of "Windows Narrator" read the screen in one ear, while the customer talked in the other ear (we can buy these headsets now). A well programmed IP phone, mods to some proprietary software, plus keyboard shortcuts are used as well. As it turns out, a blind person is now one of out best call takers.

Often it's in statistics that students learn about a log scale graph of an exponential curve being linear, becasue of transformations that are used to do linear regression on graphs that have clear patterns that aren't linear (for example if it is an exp growth or decay pattern)

That sounds like trig or pre-cal. The stats I learned and taught involved stuff like probability, distributions, degrees of freedom, sample sizes, confidence intervals, p-values, and margin of error. We did do linear regression, but that was to determine correlations, nothing to do with graphing, per se.

HeadSet says

We did do linear regression, but that was to determine correlations, nothing to do with graphing, per se.

Well these days a half way serious College Statistics and even an AP Statistics course is going to go a little deeper into linear regression (also known as the line of best fit on a scatter plot). I'm not sure how you teach that without ever drawing a graph. Certainly no text would. In any case, if the pattern of a scatter plot clearly resembles an exponential growth pattern then you can use the transformation x versus logY, or variations, until you get a linear pattern and then you can use linear regression to do predictions.

Just so you know, it's not really so much of a high school topic. Actually it's the most challenging part of a college Stats 1 (or AP Stats) section on bivariate data (scatter plots, linear regression etc), otherwise, a very easy section. You may have chosen to skip it when teaching statistics, to spend more time on the inferential stuff, which I sometimes do, at least compared to what I could do with it. Or perhpas it wasn't there then. Things change, for example what used to always be called the correlation coefficient r is now often called just correlation r.

https://stattrek.com/regression/linear-transformation.aspx
http://www.statpower.net/Content/313/Lecture%20Notes/Transformation.pdf
https://online.stat.psu.edu/stat462/node/85/

The second and third are way beyond what I teach in AP stats, just included to show that, no it's not really a precalc topic, although the simple case were talking about would be totally accessible to them . In precalc you're more usually concerned with other applications of log and exponential functions, in preparation for calculus.

“The IHME model is using New York and New Jersey data and applying it to the rest of the US.

“It predicted that over 121,000 Americans would be hospitalized yesterday (Wednesday) over the Coronavirus, Sean Davis of The Federalist said.

“The actual number? 31,142.

https://canadafreepress.com/article/save-the-western-world-by-booting-ambassador-birx-off-the-corona-virus-task

https://theothermccain.com/2020/04/09/imhe-lowers-covid-19-u-s-death-projection-again-now-down-to-60000/

While MSNBC hosts were busy spreading conspiracy theories, the doomsday forecasters were revising their numbers again:

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) model cited by the White House Coronavirus Task Force lowered its projections for coronavirus deaths in the U.S. by 25 percent from 81,766 to 60,415 early Wednesday morning.

The IHME model has come under withering criticism for vastly overstating projections of regular and ICU hospital beds needed, but its death projections to date have closely tracked with actual data.

Wednesday’s dramatic reverse in the model’s projection of U.S. deaths was made without a press release from IHME explaining the reasons for the reduction. It marks the second reduction in the model’s U.S. deaths projections since April 1, when it forecast 93,765 U.S. fatalities.

On April 5, the death projections were lowered to 81,766.

If a flu season kills 60k per say half-year that would be 330 per day each year during flu season in the US, so on peak days easily 500-700 per day, so not that much different. The difference is there's a vaccine and established meds / care. Once that's the case for Covid-19 it will integrate with the regular flu season statistics and nobody will sensationalize it anymore. Also, should we then do at least a quarter to half of the current lockdown measures each flu season? Certainly not.

thomasdong1776 says

As of April 8th, the Covid 19 virus has risen to be the single leading daily cause of death in America (note NOT year to date or accumulated, but daily).

https://ritholtz.com/2020/04/leading-daily-cause-of-death/

So what?

jazz_music says

ThreeBays says

We haven't seen anywhere near a potential peak day

We haven’t even seen peak liquor sales yet.

How about peak toilet paper sales?

jazz_music says

ThreeBays says

We haven't seen anywhere near a potential peak day

We haven’t even seen peak liquor sales yet.

Clearly....

ThreeBays says

mell says

so on peak days easily 500-700 per day, so not that much different

We haven't seen anywhere near a potential peak day for COVID-19 since we're locked down, which has kept most cities very much lower than they could get. Let's stop the charades.

We have very likely seen the peak. In terms of new infections vs total the rate has been trending down for days now and that's your indicator. Not total new cases per day which will be lagging by a few days or weeks to start their downtrend.

ThreeBays says

mell says

so on peak days easily 500-700 per day, so not that much different

We haven't seen anywhere near a potential peak day for COVID-19 since we're locked down, which has kept most cities very much lower than they could get. Let's stop the charades.

We’ve been flat on new cases for a week and there’s more and more tests going out.

FuckTheMainstreamMedia says

ThreeBays says

mell says

so on peak days easily 500-700 per day, so not that much different

We haven't seen anywhere near a potential peak day for COVID-19 since we're locked down, which has kept most cities very much lower than they could get. Let's stop the charades.

We’ve been flat on new cases for a week and there’s more and more tests going out.

Right you've reached the peak when you have the same amount of new infections as when you had 100k less cases. New cases will stagnate for a while and oscillate within the range of +- 5000 before clearly trending down.

jazz_music says

Booger says

How about peak toilet paper sales

Yes

Shit was exaggerated

You're on a roll!

Well, we've hit over 2,000 deaths per day attributed to this. That's up there with daily deaths from heart disease.

The idiots in LA County just extended the stay in place order to May 15. Cops won’t be able to enforce it. Wonder if Gruesome is willing to send in the national Guard.(they won’t be able to enforce it either).

My guess is it gets retracted. It sure does seem as though the California politicians are trying to crush the california economy.

Fucking idiots. La County officials are claiming if the order is lifted, 96% will be infected by August.

Guy I work with had it, was in close contact for several hours with 5 other employees, and about 80 people working in this wide open cubicle farm.

No one else got it.

Lying assholes.

ThreeBays says

FuckTheMainstreamMedia says

We’ve been flat on new cases for a week and there’s more and more tests going out.

Let us know when you figure out how that tells us what a maximum peak without a lock-down would be.

According to the idiots that run LA County, it’s when the entire county gets it.

https://abc7.com/health/covid-19-la-county-extends-safer-at-home-order-/6093020/

Sad they already removed it from the written article after only an hour. It still says it in the video.

ThreeBays says

What's the 2nd peak going to be if we stop the lock-down?

Who cares?? Yours and others solution is to lock down the ENTIRE populace for maybe the 5% that are vulnerable? The logic behind people that think this way is mind numbing. It makes no sense and everyone that contradicts my point of view has not put forth one logical explanation why just locking down the old and frail won't work.... not one.

I am not kidding. You are going to have family members, friends of friends start killing themselves. Everyone doing the bullshit singing out the window crap is NOT happy. The zoom "hangouts" or whatever service. They're trying to do something to keep occupied. Sitting at home doing nothing kills people. I'm afraid we're going to kill a bunch of productive, younger people because it's somehow easier to put down 100% of the population versus 5%. Whatever. I'll continue to wait for someone to come with an even remotely intelligent argument why I'm wrong.

ThreeBays says

mell says

Right you've reached the peak when you have the same amount of new infections as when you had 100k less cases. New cases will stagnate for a while and oscillate within the range of +- 5000 before clearly trending down.

That's the peak of this suppressed wave. What's the 2nd peak going to be if we stop the lock-down?

Assuming by then 25%-50% have been infected it will be much weaker than the first wave. Using the slower summer months to acquire additional herd immunity is the best course of action. Open up May 1st already.