patrick.net

Deaths are all that matter.



F'CCP - You got a link to those graphs? I'm interested in what the data is and does it account for aging population? As boomers age, more people are going to die annually than the previous year. Basically, is this what naturally would have happened? The graphs look like gross deaths and not an average. Basically we could see another peak every year for the next 20 years that coincides with flu season as boomers pass and even older people pass.

WookieMan says

F'CCP - You got a link to those graphs?

It's from FT: https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441

I still think "attributed deaths" is garbage and the only meaningful number is excess deaths.

Maybe this explains the difference...

The US obesity rate is 36.2%.
https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/29-most-obese-countries-in-the-world.html

Obesity rate in Europe, by country (top 15 shown):

https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/the-fattest-countries-in-europe.html

It's mostly woo with a shit track record of predictions.

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1990s the economy was on a roar just given by the velocity of money.

But notice it has steadily decreased since then despite major market upticks like 2003 to 2007, and 2010 to 2020.

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NoCoupForYou says

It's mostly woo with a shit track record of predictions.

Indeed. The markets are best understood as a graph of rich people’s feelings. Dog their heels or (if you can) stay one step ahead of them. They determine the market, not economic forces or whatever. It’s all about the rich people and how their feelz are doing.

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There is less risk of inflation with a drop in velocity of money.

Notice despite all the Federal Reserve quantitative easing and zirp (zero interest rate policy) that the velocity of money has not recovered to the 1990s level.

That is one reason why I never thought the Fed policies would lead to major inflation. The money never trickled down and never was like sending out stimulus checks or other government checks.

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NoCoupForYou says

Glad to see non-Whites are so mentally healthy. Probably because the therapist doesn't want to get a beatdown for telling them they have a mental condition, and they wouldn't collect the hourlies, anyway, like with neurotic whites.

DILLIGAF says

Psychopathy is typically diagnosed using a 20-item checklist called the Hare Psychopathy Checklist. This list features questions that gauge common traits such as a lack of empathy, pathological lying, and impulsivity (among many others).

That explains black thugs.

jazz_music says

Yeah, so is every other country in the world handling COVID better than the United States.

Did you not look at comment #5?? Maybe you have him on ignore I suppose, so graph quoted below. The graphs in the image show 9 out of 20 (excluding the US) countries doing worse, with another 3 basically similar if you factor data error of 2%. So we're in the middle with our handling of it at worst. Take out the Northeast (NY, NJ, MA, etc.) and the rest of the country is handling this extremely well.

We're not the best, but the claim is Europe and now you with every other country handling it better. It's literally right there for you from FuckCCP's comment. Our country is also one of the few that's mostly counting deaths with COVID as COVID deaths. Versus say German counting deaths caused by COVID. So a person maybe had cancer or some other ailment that was close to killing them anyway. We count that as a COVID death in most states, whereas other countries don't. This is why FuckCCP posted the graph, because actual COVID death counts are not the same everywhere. And China lies. Easy to hide 1M deaths with 1.4B people.

FuckCCP89 says

We're not the worst versus Europe or all the other countries per your claim. There are more overall deaths. There is a pandemic. But it's not as big and scary as it's being made out to be and we aren't remotely the worst country dealing with it.

I’ve seen hard drug addiction turn people into psychopaths. When they’re jonesing for that hit, they’re capable of damn near anything.

Otherwise psychopaths are out there and I’ve run into them more than a few times. I had a boss who would have tested high on that scale, and he almost made me quit before I decided to fight back and got him demoted. Once he no longer had any power he was neutered and mostly kept to himself until he retired. Good enough for me.

Shaman says

I’ve seen hard drug addiction turn people into psychopaths

Or it could be that the psychopathy is what turned them to drug addiction in the first place.

NDrLoR says

Shaman says

I’ve seen hard drug addiction turn people into psychopaths

Or it could be that the psychopathy is what turned them to drug addiction in the first place.

Nope. It’s usually childhood trauma that sends people into addiction behaviors. Although enough trauma as an adult will help that along as well.

Addiction has a strong genetic link, but it is diffuse. You can't diagnose underlying psychosis or personality conditions until the person is clean and sober for at least 6 months to a year. Sometimes they clear up partially, sometimes completely, and sometimes there always was an underlying personality disorder.

Probably best just to treat them as if they have the personality disorder/psychosis because most don't sober up, anyway, if they are true addicts. Addiction is mostly irreversible and eventually fatal. Sporadic sobriety tends to be the trend, with 96 to 98 percent dying addicted. It is a terminal illness.

Recovery 'experts' like to hold out hope greater than that, but then, there are huge resources in the recovery industry that cause diagnosis tainted by secondary gain. The handful that do recover have to really want it, and have to be highlly motivated, which does not describe the vast group of committed addicts.

There is usually a spectrum between users, who can be occasional chippers all the way to the physically and emotionally dependent, and true addicts.

That TV Dr. Drew who likes to be the smug guru type had the show 'Celebrity Rehab', and when it was clear his 'celebrities' were dying relentlessly, and you saw what sociopathy they were engaged in around their drug use, he had to cancel the show. For some reason, they just weren't listening to all of his TV wit and wisdom

TrumpingTits says

Now it is ppl 29 and under. The idiot protesters, looters, rioters and spring breakers.

And they'll live. We've clearly started figuring out who it kills and how to protect them. So cases are going to skyrocket as we open up. Deaths I think will start trending sideways and hospitalizations slightly up, but I don't think it gets worse than the original peak.

Which means we shouldn't have to shut down again in my opinion because nothing was ever overwhelmed. And assuming antibody resistance, cases at some point will plummet with a small bump in the fall/winter with people aging into death in 80% of the cases anyway. With no vaccine it's twice as deadly as multiple strains that have vaccines for flu. It sucks, but the over reaction is staggeringly stupid.

DILLIGAF says

followed by a ‘Nike swoosh’ recovery that won’t return the level of output to the prior fourth quarter of 2019 peak until early 2023,” writes UCLA Anderson Forecast senior economist David Shulman

Wow...he can see into the future...He even made graphs.

Shit, graphs and numbers. Here, have some others:



V Shaped Recession.

Tim Aurora says

The US, by contrast, began opening up within three weeks after its peak, and our decline has been much less rapid.

Its called flattening the curve, or do you not remember april?

Sadly, the data given in this post appears to support my own conclusion from a week ago.

https://patrick.net/post/1333113/2020-06-18-stocks-i-m-out

"Water powerty crisis"? Who the fuck comes up with this shit?

Charles Hugh Smith? Seriously?

Is this poster just al alt account of HEYYOU?

DILLIGAF says

Attack the OP author and OP poster - ignore reality, try and distract from the contents of the OP

CHS is a known entity: he's never been right about anything. If you are just discovering his "wisdom" - have fun. Just not put your money where his mouth is.

In Tucson, Arizona, another drought affected city, the number of low income residents facing unaffordable bills doubled to 46% between 2010 and 2018 – as the average bill increased by 119% to $869.

$75/mo is not "unaffordable." And that $75/mo is the "average" for all users, not just the poor. The poor would have significantly lower bills than the more affluent who water the lawn.

PeopleUnited says

Is this poster just al alt account of HEYYOU?

Could be.

DILLIGAF says

Sums up the reality of TDS sufferers.

How could a poor person have a water bill more than 20 a month? My house with two small lawns, greenhouse, and dozens of fruit trees and all sorts of shit never goes above 35 in the summer in LA. A person in an apartment or really small house with no lawn should be next to nothing.

RC2006 says

A person in an apartment or really small house with no lawn should be next to nothing.

Most apartments include water into rent because they don't even have separate meters for every unit.

I've never had a separate water bill when I was renting apts.

My water bill in Suisun runs $18 for two months and usage matters little.

FuckCCP89 says

RC2006 says

A person in an apartment or really small house with no lawn should be next to nothing.

Most apartments include water into rent because they don't even have separate meters for every unit.

I've never had a separate water bill when I was renting apts.

That's why this seems like bs water is cheap. People still spending $1.00+ for bottled water one of the biggest scams.

FuckCCP89 says

PeopleUnited says

Is this poster just al alt account of HEYYOU?

Could be.

It's not. I don't recall HEYYOU ever posting a gif.

Can't remember previous user names, but you can tell when he/she is back when the "What are you listening to tonight" thread starts getting a bunch of comments from them again. Which is fine. I don't agree with some stuff posted, but it's mostly fine.

I'm more of an original content guy and then use links or images to prove or show the point you're making. I like to see what non paid for thoughts are. Hence why I stick around here.

My water bill for the year costs less than the new iPhone. I guess no one can get that either this year?

In blue states the water bills have gone up the most dramatically and that’s due to pensions of workers and hiring of too many people and also punitive pricing to try to save the fucking smelt or whales or whatever.

Just Democrats being themselves and hating on the working poor. Vampire mother fuckers!

I find this OP useful for explaining our current economy. Sorry folks, this shit is going to get real.

Radiation means ionization that starts at way higher frequency that is at ultraviolet NOT at 5G.

RC2006 says

That's why this seems like bs water is cheap. People still spending $1.00+ for bottled water one of the biggest scams.

Bottled water is a joke. You can get your basic beer (not talking craft beers) here in IL for ~.50 per can which is mostly water with other ingredients that costs more to produce. No reason a 12oz bottle of water should be that much when you also factor in additional licensing requirements and fees for producing alcoholic beverages. And I'm not some green movement guy, but the plastic bottles are awful.

Shaman says

I find this OP useful for explaining our current economy. Sorry folks, this shit is going to get real.

The content is usually good. I'm usually a gut instinct guy and look at what is going on around me type person. I live by a train and a decent sized, but non-commercial airport. I haven't heard the frequency of trains drop. Can't see how many cars are attached, but frequency is the same. Airport has the usual number of corp. jets sitting out. Lots more flight training going on for sure.

We'll see how this all balances out. One of my gut instinct indicators is a local lumber yard. That's one area of concern as you can physically see how much they have on hand when driving by. It's probably 50% less, but that could be for other reason. Most businesses in my area are operating as normal for the most part and are busy.

Besides my SIL who worked at a restaurant, I don't believe I know anyone that has been laid off. This won't be smooth and I don't think we're going to recover to the previous economy quickly. I just think it's not going to be as bad as some are predicting. July is going to be the month to watch as if I recall correctly, isn't that when the $600/wk for UE goes away?

TL;DR: Buy Luxembourg Opera Gold Rounds!