patrick.net

DILLIGAF says

Au Revoir - I must attend to more fear mongering with the local populace.

Go ahead and sell all your shares. Buy some gold or land or whatever you think is a good investment. I’ll continue buying stocks every month based on the fact that historically for the last 500 years stocks has had the best performance of any investment. Let’s compare in 5 years who has done better.

"This is going to be a terrible year. We all agree with that. Now, we can debate whether earnings are going to be down 30% or 40%, but they’re going to be down a ton. The real debate should be about what will happen over the next three, four, five years. How much of this damage is permanent? And how much is transitory? That’s a healthy discussion to have. And when you have the discussion, what happens is, you discover that there are some businesses where the damage is permanent. The cruise-line business. It’s never going to go back to a pre-crisis valuation for good reason. But I’ll make it broader. I think infrastructure businesses [airlines and telecommunications], especially ones with a lot of debt, are going to be permanently marked down after this crisis because people have learned that these companies are very fragile. They are not designed to live through a crisis like this one."
-NYU Professor Aswath Damodaran

https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-to-value-stocks-according-to-nyu-professor-aswath-damodaran-51593082800?mod=bol-social-fb&fbclid=IwAR0Y3vizJPfqy8e88CXbAzAfFjX1vuXQAXroJ4lzQEJG8VS0kmBDWTK91wI

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DILLIGAF says

Spending too much time at Disneyland ?

Bankruptcy you say ? Kind of expensive to file for someone out of work and struggling to put food on the table or keep housing of some fashion.

But one can dream...

All you Chicom , Russian, Antifa, Democrat, etc. trolls need to check out what the fuck is going on in the Florida panhandle. Its fucking packed, you knuckleheads.

It was a fucking zoo at Walmart in Panama City Beach, FL today with all the tourists not only from fucking reliable source states of Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky and Tennessee, but I saw license plates from New York, New Jersey and Illinois as well as Missouri.

Go look at the web cameras at https://www.visitpanamacitybeach.com/webcam/

Look at places like Sharkeys, Schooners and Pineapple Willies. The wait to get a table is at least 1.5 hours !

.....

Here's another Florida Location. I scrolled back about 5 hours ago which is 5pm EST - not a table to be had.
www.youtube.com/embed/nKrm68n7I_8

South Padre Island, TX - scroll to this afternoon to see the Beach Jam Packed.
www.youtube.com/embed/QqgSVV36wNI

Sorry Blue Staters, come on down and live a little. The only thing you have to lose is your DeBlasio-Pritzker Chains

Who got fucked coming out of 2008, renters and cash holders. Whose gonna get fucked this time or the next time, renters and cash holders. Why? Because the Fed, MMT and politicians know only one thing INFLATION.

Housing is just another asset like gold, bitcoin, etc. that acts as an inflation hedge. Housing is very local and you need to know what you're doing, but if you think the Fed is going to double or triple the debt and assets are going to go down then your not playing the game right.

And if your betting on the whole "50% crash, then I'll buy", good luck, I'm sure you have been waiting for 15 years and are probably just risk adverse and will never buy.

Just to expand on inflation, I was watching the 1991 film Point Break last night and in the movie before the last bank robbery, Utah was ordering food for him and his partner, 2 meatball sandwiches, 1 tuna sandwich and 2 lemonades, $7.30.... That's one coffee these days. Just like grandma said bread was $.05, inflation is a bitch and very real. Even if you're a constant crash person you'd better be in assets of some kind or else you're fucked long term i.e. just like all these rioters that own nothing, are disenfranchised, and are getting eaten away by inflation.

ad says

All you Chicom , Russian, Antifa, Democrat, etc. trolls need to check out what the fuck is going on in the Florida panhandle. Its fucking packed, you knuckleheads.

I'm on a St. George Island page (east of PCB as you probably know). You practically can't even get a vacation rental. People are begging on FB to see if there's been summer cancellations and a week opens up.

When you stop an entire industry, cruising, those people still want something to do. At any one time there were probably 20-30 ships cruising out of the US, with likely 80% American passengers. Probably at least 40k Americans cruising per week. They can't do that now. Where does that money go? American tourism. Not Canada, Tortola, Antigua, St. Lucia Aruba, Mexico, etc. Our spring break cruise got cancelled and we have $7-8k back in the vacation fund. The people that spend are more flush with cash than the doomsday people keep pumping.

If you like traveling domestically I'd get your plans in place now because prices are going to go through the roof on hotels, rental car, VRBO, etc. Europe is planning on keeping a US to EU ban in place I heard till at least August. The amount of money due to no one having less of it, for the most part, is going to be funneling back into America this summer instead of foreign travel. And yes, we lose foreign tourist, but we'll easily make that up.

thomasdong1776 says

Russian President Vladimir Putin secretly offered a bounty to Afghanistan militants for American soldiers they killed — and Donald Trump knew about it.

Look up Mujaheddin. Putin knew about it.

find an article without a paywall.

without reading lemme guess, "anonymous" sources say Orange man bad?

Onvacation says

thomasdong1776 says

Russian President Vladimir Putin secretly offered a bounty to Afghanistan militants for American soldiers they killed — and Donald Trump knew about it.

Look up Mujaheddin. Putin knew about it.

Hasn't everybody known about this, its been going on since the 70s between Russia and the US. But Orange man bad.

Dholliday126 says

Who got fucked coming out of 2008, renters and cash holders. Whose gonna get fucked this time or the next time, renters and cash holders. Why? Because the Fed, MMT and politicians know only one thing INFLATION.

Housing is just another asset like gold, bitcoin, etc. that acts as an inflation hedge. Housing is very local and you need to know what you're doing, but if you think the Fed is going to double or triple the debt and assets are going to go down then your not playing the game right.

And if your betting on the whole "50% crash, then I'll buy", good luck, I'm sure you have been waiting for 15 years and are probably just risk adverse and will never buy.

Just to expand on inflation, I was watching the 1991 film Point Break last night and in the movie before the last bank robbery, Utah was ordering food for him and his partner, 2 meatball sandwiches, 1 tuna sandwich and 2 lemonades, $7.30.... That's one coffee these days. Just like grandma said bread was $.05, in...

1) Very good post, DHolliday.

2) What is your view on government-reported inflation like CPI ?

3) I checked https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/
It shows an annual inflation rate of 1.8% over the last 11 years, and a 2.2% rate since January 2000. The S&P 500 grew 5.9% since January 2000 to present day with dividends reinvested.

4) https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-price-median-annual-income-ratio/

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Nothing is for free.

.

ad says

Utah was ordering food for him and his partner, 2 meatball sandwiches, 1 tuna sandwich and 2 lemonades, $7.30.... That's one coffee these days. Just like grandma said bread was $.05, in...

I would estimate in the Florida panhandle it would cost $7 per sandwich and $2.50 per lemonade. Total cost $26 not including 7% sales tax (6% to Tallahassee and 1% to county).

However, that $7.30 was paid in LA, as in Los Angeles not Lower Alabama land. So how much would it cost in LA today ? I guess at least $40.

That means as far as annual inflation of 6% or 0.06: $7.30 x (1.06)^30 = $41.90

So food inflation in LA has averaged annually about 6%.
.

Why did we go take a shit on Afghanistan if it's been a Terd that hasn't flushed in 80 years?

Approximately 137? ok...I think the whole articles premise dies with the fact that you have to round to get to that number. And h, c, & epsilon are constants that are reported in metric units, a human construct.

It's like me saying 1/(4(pi)(epsilon)) is equal to 8.99 x 10^9. We can round that 8.99 coefficient to 9 and WOW!!! It's EXACTLY 9!!!

Fake news.

https://twitter.com/ODNIgov/status/1277079117234651141

I would agree, food is probably 6%, housing 10%, schooling 12%, and medical premiums 15%.

The government's 2% is notorious for counting stuff you dont need to live or you buy every 10 years like computers, TVs and clothing.

So basically if you're some risk adverse person sitting in cash and renting you're losing average 8% of your purchasing power every year.

....

DILLIGAF says

Probably be busier for the 4th of July - there are short games and long games. Personally I opt for the long game, better to wait long than marry wrong. Not hitching my outlook to what happens at the beaches or tourist destinations. There are far bigger things thrashing about in the economy.

That is why I think the S&P 500 needs to be 20% below its 52 week peak for another 6 months. The index needs to be discounted that much to account for the slow down.

...

Dholliday126 says

The government's 2% is notorious for counting stuff you dont need to live or you buy every 10 years like computers, TVs and clothing.

Listen I've seen the graphs put out by the gov, if you're telling me inflation is 2% you're drinking the koolaid.

But for sake of argument let's say it true. That means over the last 10 years you have 20% less purchasing power unless your own assets or get good raises every year, even with 2% you're fucked

.

Food inflation by year.

I think for LA (as in Los Angeles and not Lower Alabama) probably would be double the restaurant food inflation rate for the nation.

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/food-inflation-in-the-united-states/

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https://www.gkigroup.com/story-three-entrepreneurs-quit-early/

Most people give up just when they're about to achieve success. They quit on the one yard line. They give up at the last minute of the game one foot from a winning touchdown.

Ross Perot

Maybe they are paying Trump a cut of the bounties. It's the only explanation.

As of lately, nobody deserves greater benefit of the doubt than deranged leftoid presstitutes!

Fortwaynemobile says

any people seen walking around outside the arena during the rally were in fact illegal immigrants from Mexico.

Yep.

Yeah, another "reset" won't look good, if it happened. Speaking of which: what kind of Putin's cock ornament it makes Obama with his 2008 "overload"?

I can just see them, covered in tats, breathing through your dick while they juice themselves with hypos full of Bill Gates Patented Eugenics Vaccine.

I know, I know when G W Bush left office we were winning the war in Afghanistan. When Obama left office we were winning the war in Afghanistan. What's up with this Trump presidency?

www.youtube.com/embed/9CZl8kHWGYk

Every country that reopened went through this, but the deaths never spiked.

Huff and Fluff

Pretty sad when Russian Collusion Truthers are posting magazine covers from 2 years ago pretending that their Coup attempt hasn't totally failed.

socal2 says

Pretty sad when Russian Collusion Truthers are posting magazine covers from 2 years ago pretending that their Coup attempt hasn't totally failed.

facts don't matter for them

thomasdong1776 says

Either he knew and chose to do nothing, or he didn't know because he couldn't be bothered to do his job.

He didn't know because it was such bullshit, the Intel Agencies didn't tell him.

If the President was briefed on every piece of intelligence, he wouldn't be able to do anything. In fact, it would be impossible even if he never slept to hear all of it.

Actually, McEnany was right when she called for NYT Pulitzers to be withdrawn over their "Russian Collusion" type stories.

DILLIGAF says

Russia’s ambassador in Warsaw, Alexander Alexeyev, said he was “deeply outraged”

So? He can go and fuck himself.

I like this idea. When we re-erect the monuments that were torn down, we should throw in one like this- depicting similar American events, to go alongside it.

DILLIGAF says

“Anyone who expects this President to find out something important by reading does not know Donald Trump

While I realize this is humor, from all reports it is accurate. Trump doesn't read. That is simply fact. It is said that his briefings had to be short and that it helped if visual aids were used to make the point.

Its also true that he has no interest in doing the, "nuts and bolts" of the job he was elected to do. We all know what his interests are; money, golf and adulation and in the past
(maybe still) women. So let's not try to make him out to be something he isn't.

Did he know or didn't he know is kind of irrelevant, he simply isn't interested in such matters.