patrick.net

Prior to the COVID lockdowns the unemployment rate was 3.5%.Today the unemployment rate is 11.1%. Including those who have part time jobs, but want full time jobs it is 18%. For July 23% of renters did not make their rent payment (this is about 25 million people), and this was through no fault of their own. They were working prior to government mandated lockdowns.


1. All individuals are responsible for their own actions alone. No one is responsible for anyone else's action.


As a society, we should at this point embrace a certain amount of socialism so as to not economically displace 25 million people. To have the Fed and Federal government bail out the rich and well connected, but let the commoners face homelessness would disintegrate the country. The BLM protests were quaint as very few people died. There is no telling the number of people that could be killed if we just let things take their course.

Misc says

For July 23% of renters did not make their rent payment (this is about 25 million people), and this was through no fault of their own

Your logic doesn’t add up. Unemployment with the added Fed money is more then most people were making before they lost their jobs. So the reason rent wasn’t paid wasn’t due to lack of income.

A better guess would be that rent wasn’t paid because currently evictions are suspended. I personally know people skipping their mortgage payments for this reason.

I don’t see how socialism helps here. Government caused this problem with unnecessary shutdowns and suspension of evictions. Why keep digging the hole with another government program?

Misc says

For July 23% of renters did not make their rent payment (this is about 25 million people), and this was through no fault of their own.

Why did 23% not make their rent payment? I keep hearing these stats and most the time no one links anything. If you're laid off you're still making $2,500/mo plus normal UE benefits. Plus you likely got the full $1,200. A family of 4 could have gotten $3,400. Divide that over 3 months and it's $1,133/mo, plus $2,500/mo, plus whatever UE benefits for a family of four. And if both adults got laid off that $2,500/mo is now $5,000/mo.

Then account for not being able to travel early on. You're just buying groceries for the most part. Little to no eating out. No entertainment/sports. Basically you're spending way less.

If you're not paying rent, it's because you're a deadbeat or gaming the system because you know you can't get evicted. Median family income is around $60k. These benefits are as good if not more if both are unemployed than normal pay for over half the country. August will be the real month to watch. I think some of these stats being tossed around are pure BS.

For those who were not making enough to qualify for Unemployment, those who had their hours cut but not terminated, or those who hadn't the 6 months of employment with their employer to qualify for unemployment the situation is dire. In most cases it takes more than one income to afford a rental unit in most cities. Therefore, if even one person is in these categories (along with the illegals) rent is not paid.

https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/july-housing-payments

If millions of families are facing homelessness, you ignore these statistics at the peril of the nation. I don't think 25 million people are trying to game the system by intentionally not paying rent.

More socialism is called for the lower echelons of society because they understand that the Fed just bought up 4 trillion dollars of worthless bonds to bail out Wall Street, the banks, and large corporations. Added to that is the $560 billion given to the well connected through the PPP program. So, yes, they can see the socialism for the rich quite well.

Misc says

For those who were not making enough to qualify for Unemployment

You're talking a tiny percentage of the population. 23% of renters not paying with only 11-18% unemployment that you mention, doesn't add up. I'd guess 80% of those on UE have worked the 6 months and or have made enough to qualify. They have the money. It was a survey of 4,000 renters through a survey monkey email. I'm skeptical of how they collected the data and that they have accurate information. Never even heard of apartment list.com and I previously working in RE for 14 years.

I'm just not seeing or hearing of anyone missing payments. At 23% someone would have hit my family up for cash or asked for help. Or asked friends. Hasn't happened.

Misc says

those who had their hours cut but not terminated

It's an employment agreement. There are two parties. Don't accept the cut in hours and they'll have to lay you off or fire you and you collect UE. Being fired for not accepting less hours does not hurt future employment for the most part. It's easily explainable with the current situation.

Watch August, but there's really no valid argument that 98% of the population cannot afford rent over the last couple months. The stimulus and UE benefits are clearly linked to the median family income. Government workers haven't been laid off. You're talking about restaurant workers and retail workers. If they worked for 6 months at an employer they are almost certainly making more money right now. There's no excuse for 23% of renters to stop payment outside of panic and hoarding cash with current UE levels.

Independent contractors can even get the $600/wk bonus. They can easily qualify for loans as an IC too and stay afloat. The math doesn't add up from my end. I question everything at this point.

The time for appeasement is before violence occurs. If it is done after violence takes place, there is never enough to quell the uprising.

Oh, as a ballpark number for a 330000000 population, with about 65% of that in the workforce the difference between the 11.1% rate and the 18% rate is about 15 million working part time that want full time jobs. You ain't gonna make rent with a part time job and you don't get unemployment.

Misc says

As a society, we should at this point embrace a certain amount of socialism so as to not economically displace 25 million people.

I agree. What I meant by responsibility for your own actions is that there is no collective guilt. Belonging to any particular race should not get you any blame or credit.

But Americans do have some responsibility to take care of their fellow Americans.

Patrick says

But Americans do have some responsibility to take care of their fellow Americans.

Yes and no. I lean more towards no. I've lived well within my means. My house payment is less than 5% of gross income. I could easily go out and get $600k house here in IL and look like the king of stupidity. I could easily go out and get a $60k boat and take it out every weekend during the summer. None of my money is inherited. I've worked for it and saved. Making stupid choices is an individual trait. It has nothing to do with anyone else.

I have no interest in continually bailing out deadbeats and losers that don't try or in current times are criminals. Outside of illness, disability and old age, nothing is holding back anyone in America here legally. Nothing beside pure laziness and excuse making. We should be protesting to open back up so those people never lost their jobs. Not the 20 black people that got killed by a cop in a year. We all know it was wrong. It has nothing to do with race though. Absolutely nothing. Instead millions are unemployed over the common cold.

Stop the excuses. How about people ask themselves why they didn't save up 6 months for an emergency exactly like this current situation. It's not the governments job to come in and give you UE benefits and stimulus checks. Especially because you didn't save and likely didn't pay a dime in taxes anyway. I now have to pay for it with increased income taxes down the road when I'm already paying $40k in just Federal taxes. It's bullshit. Stop the excuses and man/woman up.

WookieMan says

Outside of illness, disability and old age, nothing is holding back anyone in America here legally. Nothing beside pure laziness and excuse making.

Word.

Exactly. I said "some" and those were the things I was talking about: illness, disability and old age.

Patrick says

Exactly. I said "some" and those were the things I was talking about: illness, disability and old age.

That's the way I understood it. I just went off on a rant because I do take care of my fellow Americans monetarily already and pretty well for a non-1%'er. Donate time and give to charity. Yet we have these morons tearing down statues, complaining about not having money because they didn't save along the way while paying $0 in federal income taxes. It triggered me to be honest. I'm getting sick of it.

And the whole BLM thing. I've yet to see one person say it was right about the Floyd situation. The cop has been charged. Move on. Stop making excuses with made up phrases like "systemic racism" and the likes. Stop killing each other and cops won't go to your neighborhood! We have one cop on duty in my town and fall back on my county during late night hours. We maybe have a couple DUI's and one or two break in's annually. That's it. 2,280 people. There's not a chance you could get away with that in a city like Chicago. Something is systemic, but it's not racism.

Eric Holder says

WookieMan says

Outside of illness, disability and old age, nothing is holding back anyone in America here legally. Nothing beside pure laziness and excuse making.

Word.

If you are lucky enough to be born in America and have 2 parents, you pretty much won life's lottery and are provided advantages and opportunites that was not available to 98% of humanity through history.

WookieMan says

Something is systemic, but it's not racism.

Agreed. It's systemic indoctrination to hate.

The hate cult is pushed in the media, schools, corporations, most of government.

They literally seek to destroy the family, a stated goal of BLM: "We disrupt the Western-prescribed nuclear family structure"

the Leftist Bolsheviks will continue their reign of racism and terror until the law is enforced or they destroy the rule of law. They cannot be reasoned with, they cannot be shamed. They can only be held to account for their lawlessness.

Misc says

More socialism is called for the lower echelons of society

Define socialism. If you mean free clinics, soup kitchens, and dormitories for those down on their luck paid for by taxes, I'm with you. If you mean confiscating wealth from the productive in the name of equity, I'm against you.

The safety net should not be a comfortable place to live and it definitely should not be a multigenerational home.

Patrick says

But Americans do have some responsibility to take care of their fellow Americans.

Free clinics, soup kitchens, and dormitories. It is not fair to the producers to have to compete with the takers via welfare and subsidized housing. It is definitely not fair to the productive to incentivize children out of wedlock.

Onvacation says

If you mean confiscating wealth from the productive in the name of equity, I'm against you.

Too late for that. Half the damn country doesn't pay any meaningful amount in taxes. As in $1k or more. 20-30% of citizens in this country will never pay federal taxes. Yet reap benefits they paid nothing for. One of the few things Mitt Romney was right on.

This is yet another thing that the Georgist land-value tax would fix.

https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Georgism

There should be no tax on income, because that discourages work.
There should be no tax on sales, because that discourages commerce.

There should be a single tax on land (and radio spectrum as a more abstract kind of land) because:

1. No one created land. Taxing land does not discourage "land production".
2. It's simple. Everyone can immediately understand it.
3. It's fair. If you don't want to pay a lot of tax, don't own a lot of land, or land in high-value areas which demand more services. But everyone will have to pay something.
4. It's impossible to evade. Everyone has to live somewhere within a country, and that place will have to pay the land value tax.
5. It is the best possible tax for the economy, discouraging only excessive land holding and not discouraging work or commerce.

This is great. There is an asian dude Antifa keeps harassing because they think he's Andy Ngo. They are like, you are antagonizing us because you are asian and look like him.

https://twitter.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1282904145247248384?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1282904145247248384%7Ctwgr%5E&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fthepostmillennial.com%2Fwatch-antifa-harass-asian-man-for-looking-like-andy-ngo

www.youtube.com/embed/RSc9mMzKKsA

WookieMan says

If you're laid off you're still making $2,500/mo plus normal UE benefits.

Where do you get these numbers? I help recently unemployed people find health insurance daily. I promise the average unemployed is making a fraction of this figure.

Theres a larger % of people w no fucking money than almost any time in memorable US history. I expect a market crash in october as empirical results start to match the direness of the situation.

CBOEtrader says

Where do you get these numbers?

From the only two people I personally know that are unemployed out of maybe 150-200 in my social network. And not FB social network, I'm talking about people that would 100% attend my wedding and that I communicate with at minimum monthly via phone/text/email.

The two are inlaws as well that I physically see on a weekly basis. They both are getting $600/wk. My MIL is only getting maybe $200/wk of normal UE. SIL is getting about $250/wk of normal UE from the state. They both got the $1,200 and SIL got the extra $500 for her son. I help my MIL with her accounting and have access to view her accounts. She 100% is getting what I state.

CBOEtrader says

I promise the average unemployed is making a fraction of this figure.

It's harsh, but it's likely the reason they are unemployed. They're too lazy to go through the UE process or are not educated enough on it to go get it. It takes time and patience to navigate the system in most states. I had the opportunity to get it after being laid off 2-1/2 years ago and said fuck it. Wasn't worth the time and my wife makes great money.

As an IC, I have a real estate license that I still have active, I could have gotten the $600/wk myself even though I earn other income. I've been taught all this by my SIL who frankly is ghetto and has figure out how to legally game these systems. Just takes a lot of time and knowledge of the system, which I admittedly don't know. This SIL is the one who fucked over baby daddy and destroyed his ankle monitoring bracelet knowing he'd go back to jail and the government would pay child support. She brags about this stuff.

CBOEtrader says

I expect a market crash in october as empirical results start to match the direness of the situation.

I don't doubt this could happen at all. Most people I know are in northern IL, but some in other states. I'm personally not seeing the direness from who I know and I know of people getting the stimulus and UE checks. The bad is happening, but I'm just personally not seeing it. Probably a blind spot for me I guess. There's for sure going to be some correction. The major index valuations just don't seem logical. But who knows. I don't have access to information that could point to a quick recovery for some reason.

Anecdotal, but at the Cab Company I work for, we have a few telephone operators and drivers who refuse to come back to work until the $500/week or so benefit runs out. Boss was tempted to mention this to the gov, but in reality such complaints will likely be ignored right now. If a company cuts a worker's hours to part time, that is doubly bad for the worker since it prevents UE benefits. Therefore, employees who get their hours cut are somewhat forced to quit.

WookieMan says

They both are getting $600/wk. My MIL is only getting maybe $200/wk of normal UE. SIL is getting about $250/wk of normal UE from the state. They both got the $1,200 and SIL got the extra $500 for her son

I sell a LOT of obamacare. Almost everyone who uses obamacare does so BECAUSE their income and family size qualifies them for subsidies to pay for the insurance (thank obama for that handout to blue cross).

I am not an expert at unemployment benefits, BUT it appears that unemployment insurance from govt is = a % of full employment income. Seems to be about 60% of employed income up to a maximum of about $800/week. The $600 per week bonus is currently planned to end in august, i think. So yeah, many many clients currently making more in unemployment than their previosu jobs. HOWEVER, theres a LOT of part time or restaurant or contract or previously unemployed who either get very little or nothing in unemployment. These people see that $600/wk as their last potential lifeline into a coming famine. Hard to know if these people cant or simply wont pay rent.

Then what about the investors? My landlord isnt a rich guy. He's a normal middle class dude who invested his savings into 3 townhomes, which he uses for income. Who pays him if his rentors dont pay? What about all those business owners with ruined businesses? Who is paying their rent/mortgage/college tuition for the kids?

I know a lot of people are financially fine through this and some (like myself) are seeing business increase. My business is exploding as I am fully digital in my sales and i sell health insurance :) Many, many others arent fine though.

Nv moratorium for business rents ended this month and residential rents are dure again Sep 1. Watch for evictions and foreclosures to pop in Sep. Expect the market to start falling around the middle of Sep as the numbers roll in. (*tin foil hat on*) ...and id expect the powers that be to follow through with the crash for political reasons. (*tin foil hat off*)

Its a speculative forecast, nothing i'd bet the farm on... but im looking for my best leverage bet to take advantage of this crash possibility.

CBOEtrader says

These people see that $600/wk as their last potential lifeline into a coming famine. Hard to know if these people cant or simply wont pay rent.

Agreed. Which is why I've been saying August will be interesting along with September reporting. Lots of unknowns.

Trust me, I'm not some cheerleader saying things are fine. I'm just personally not seeing it and know a few people making bank right now due to the bonus. The struggle has to be real in the high COL areas I assume. So I'm sure rents are rough in those areas. Living in a small town and knowing the restaurant owners, they're all fine. They shut down for a couple months and then started take out and have since opened up fully as no one is enforcing distancing. No one is missing rent here. Big cities where costs are higher, probably a problem.

The markets definitely don't seem logical. But that's also why I don't pay attention to them too much. It can make you crazy.

WookieMan says

Which is why I've been saying August will be interesting along with September reporting.

Arent you an investments advisor of some kind?

Are the rich people holding their shit together or no? I dont talk to many rich clients these days. My clients are almost all between $15k and $115k/year type families.

Misc says

Prior to the COVID lockdowns the unemployment rate was 3.5%.Today the unemployment rate is 11.1%. Including those who have part time jobs, but want full time jobs it is 18%. For July 23% of renters did not make their rent payment (this is about 25 million people), and this was through no fault of their own. They were working prior to government mandated lockdowns.


1. All individuals are responsible for their own actions alone. No one is responsible for anyone else's action.


As a society, we should at this point embrace a certain amount of socialism so as to not economically displace 25 million people. To have the Fed and Federal government bail out the rich and well connected, but let the commoners face homelessness would disintegrate the country. The BLM protests were quaint as very few people died. There is no telling the number of people that could be killed if we just let things take their course.

Dude, don't waste your time on this site. Years ago it was a helpful, informative site filled with renters, buyers, and landlords discussing the economic impacts of the housing markets excesses. Patrick was a cool dude with valuable economic insights that helped people make smart decisions.

Every time I've stopped back here in the past 5 years it has decayed further and further...it's pretty sad. Patrick's deep state antifa bullshit is scary--I can't believe he is on here inciting violence against people who dislike Trump. This circle is growing smaller by the day as not only our country but the rest of the world recognizes the peril Trump is bringing on his country.

@Patrick: you are better than this, dude...I've seen your posts here for years...I cannot believe what I'm reading from you today.

Violent BLM cultist beats police with a club:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8527275/NYPD-COD-three-cops-injured-attacked-protesters-Brooklyn-Bridge.html

NYPD hunts protester who beat a Chief of Department and three other officers with a cane during a violent brawl on the Brooklyn Bridge - while critics demand a response from Bill de Blasio

At least four officers - including the city’s highest ranking uniformed cop, Chief of Department Terence Monahan - were hurt and 37 were arrested
In surveillance footage a protester is seen swinging a long object down at the heads of a group of officers from a walkway as they attempt to arrest someone
Photos of the aftermath showed a lieutenant with a bloodied face, a detective holding a bandage to his head, and an officer helping another to dress a wound
Mayor Bill de Blasio, who earlier this month slashed NYPD funding by $1bn, has yet to speak about the incident, despite being active on social media
Elsewhere in Manhattan Wednesday, a marked NYPD van was broken into and torched as police hunt for four suspects

... 'Where is the outrage?' asked NYC Scanner on Twitter. 'The NYPD Chief of Dept along with 3 other officers were brutally attacked today, some needing the hospital, yet [Mayor de Blasio] has tweeted ELEVEN tweets since the incident (7 hours) - all of them about police reform - and not ONE tweet condemning the attack.'

JH says

deep state antifa bullshit is scary

Hella scary.

JH says

Patrick was a cool dude with valuable economic insights that helped people make smart decisions.

@Patrick: you are better than this, dude...I've seen your posts here for years...I cannot believe what I'm reading from you today.

Maybe you should be more concerned that the Democrat party has turned bat-shit crazy and has caused sensible moderates like Patrick to be appalled by it?

I know lots of smart dudes in California that have been red-pilled over the last few years by the crazy SJW'rs and Marxists that have taken over the Democrat party. Bill Clinton couldn't get elected in today's Democrat party.

Watching the Democrats single-handedly turn beautiful cities like San Francisco, LA, Seattle and Portland into absolute shit of homeless and lawlessness while they target Conservatives has an impact on one's views. Funny how that happens!

socal2 says

Watching the Democrats single-handedly turn beautiful cities like San Francisco, LA, Seattle and Portland into absolute shit of homeless and lawlessness while they target Conservatives has an impact on one's views. Funny how that happens!

www.youtube.com/embed/suYKgcLGhtw

socal2 says

Maybe you should be more concerned that the Democrat party has turned bat-shit crazy and has caused sensible moderates like Patrick to be appalled by it?

I know lots of smart dudes in California that have been red-pilled over the last few years by the crazy SJW'rs and Marxists that have taken over the Democrat party. Bill Clinton couldn't get elected in today's Democrat party.

Watching the Democrats single-handedly turn beautiful cities like San Francisco, LA, Seattle and Portland into absolute shit of homeless and lawlessness while they target Conservatives has an impact on one's views. Funny how that happens!

Thank you @socal2

I could not have said it better myself.

I'm a centrist, a moderate.

The left has become ultra-intolerant and violent.

Patrick says

socal2 says

Maybe you should be more concerned that the Democrat party has turned bat-shit crazy and has caused sensible moderates like Patrick to be appalled by it?

I know lots of smart dudes in California that have been red-pilled over the last few years by the crazy SJW'rs and Marxists that have taken over the Democrat party. Bill Clinton couldn't get elected in today's Democrat party.

Watching the Democrats single-handedly turn beautiful cities like San Francisco, LA, Seattle and Portland into absolute shit of homeless and lawlessness while they target Conservatives has an impact on one's views. Funny how that happens!

Thank you @socal2

I could not have said it better myself.

I'm a centrist, a moderate.

The left has become ultra-intolerant and violent.

I think my story is similar. I was a Democrat. But I cannot be anymore, party that destroyed my state, utterly hates me for my skin color. It’s insanity.

The Dems used to represent labor. Now they team up with Big Corporate to offshore jobs and flood the country with cheap illegal scab workers. The Dems even abandoned the White working class in the early Obama era planning to replace those voters with a collection of non-White voters and LGBTQ. As collateral damage, Black working class were abandoned as well.

"On Wednesday 22-year-old black male Joshua Hayes traveled a few miles outside Indianapolis to Brownsbury, a neighboring community. Joshua Hayes stopped his car, got out and started shooting at the first people he saw – two white males working at a cemetery.

One victim was hit, and fell in the road. Shooter Hayes walked up to him and shot him three times point blank in the chest killing him. Hayes then chased the second man down shooting at him and hitting him. Joshua Hayes then approached the wounded man, and as his gun was pointed at the second victim’s head, a man sitting in his car (which was hit by bullets) witnessing all of this and a concealed carry weapon holder, got out of his vehicle and shot the shooter dead.

Police later determined the shooter and the victims did not know each other, and this was 100% random.

The intent was to kill as many people as possible presumably – but that never happened because that with the CCW permit stopped him.

Of course, this did not make any national headlines. Just like the like the young white mother Jessica Whitaker who was shot in Indianapolis by Black Lives Matter protesters."

@FuckCCP89

The MSM are beyond garbage at this point. They're just as evil as the perpetrators of these actions, perhaps more-so. By engaging in biased reporting on such a scale as this, they warp the opinions of their viewers, whipping them into this state of TDS, where they view Trump as the Anti-Christ and all white people as "supremacists", to the point where these lunatics are actually murdering people. It's not hypothetical. It's not theoretical. It's very real.

They then have the gall to accuse Trump of "inciting violence". Always projecting. Always.

There needs to be another HUAC to bring these Marxists out of the shadows and into the light for the public to see who they are and what they've been doing. Until these people are removed from positions of power, things will only get worse.

FuckCCP89 says

Of course, this did not make any national headlines

I added it here:

https://patrick.net/post/1333832/2020-07-13-end-leftist-violence

Going to keep on adding them as leftist keep on murdering people.

Another murder obviously by violent leftists again:

https://patrick.net/post/1333927/2020-07-18-men-s-rights-activist-attorney-shot-and-killed-outside-home-in-san-bernardino-county