patrick.net

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nobody-see-bottom-europe-plunging-105922904.html


Nobody Can See Bottom for Europe’s Plunging Natural Gas Market
[Bloomberg]
Vanessa Dezem and Will Mathis
,Bloomberg•February 14, 2020

(Bloomberg) -- As natural gas prices across the Atlantic are flirting with their lowest level in more than two decades, European energy traders this week struck a very bearish tone at a giant industry event in Germany’s industrial heartland.

The global glut of the fuel has seen prices plunge in the U.S., Europe and Asia as a wave of liquefied natural gas hits the market. Associated gas from oil fields in North America also boosted supplies at a time when demand growth is under threat from a slowing global economy and the coronavirus.

Against a noisy backdrop of live music from saxophones and violins to pouring of beer at plush corporate stands at the E-World in Essen, more than a dozen traders, executives and analysts quizzed by Bloomberg were so perplexed by the slump they wouldn’t pinpoint a low. The bearish market was a main talking point at the event, which attracted more than 25,000 visitors from Europe and beyond.

“It is possible that gas prices in Europe will decline even further,” said Domenico De Luca, head of trading and sales at Swiss utility Axpo Holding AG. “There are a lot of bearish signals in the short term,” he said, citing full gas stores and even more LNG supply coming online in the summer.

The European benchmark slumped by almost half last year and has slid a further 27% this year to trade near their lowest in more than a decade. That comes as Asian LNG has never been cheaper and U.S. futures are near levels last seen in 1998.

The coronavirus outbreak added another layer of difficulty for gas shipments as trade patterns shifted with more LNG cargoes heading for Europe as Chinese demand dived. At the same time, the absence of any real winter in the Northern Hemisphere added even more pressure on prices.The mild weather has also left European storage sites almost full, which will translate into record low injections this summer, De Luca said. That means prices could continue to slide until they reach a point where it doesn’t make financial sense to sell into the market.

But those levels still appear some way off. Tor Martin Anfinnsen, a senior vice-president at Norway’s Equinor ASA, said in an interview that the region’s second biggest supplier had no plans to curb supplies.

“If someone is hoping for supply relief from Norway, we will have to disappoint them,” Anfinnsen said in Essen. “We will be the last ones to turn off the taps. We are far away from reducing flows.”Oil prices have also slid this year, another victim of the coronavirus, leading some OPEC members to consider deeper cuts in oil output. The group’s most important ally, Russia, is not so sure, promising OPEC an answer “soon.”

Essen is also the home of RWE AG, Germany’s biggest power producer who will receive almost $3 billion to shut its coal plants by 2038. One result of the cheap gas prices is that coal burn at power stations slumped last year. That’s good for the environment since coal is twice as polluting as gas.

Russian Gas

As the traders in Essen focused on the oversupply, one industry executive on Friday talked up the need for more gas from Russia, the region’s biggest supplier.

Austrian energy company OMV AG helped finance the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which will bring Siberian fuel directly to Germany. It’s being delayed after the pipe-laying company hired to complete it was hit by U.S. sanctions.

“From my point of view, the market needs this additional gas” as domestic European supplies are dwindling, OMV Chief Executive Officer Rainer Seele told Bloomberg Television.

In the meantime, Ewout Eijkelenboom, senior consultant at Kyos Energy Consulting in the Netherlands, thinks that prices could fall until at least the summer.

“It won’t be a straight line, we will see bumps,” he said. “The LNG market is in a cycle where many projects are coming online at the same time and demand is not responding.”



=============


Note the cheap Russian whores like that Rainer Seele fuck still peddling the "need for Russian pipelines" while the market is drowning in NG oversupply.

What does this mean for the Iranian Oil Bourse? Will it still replace the USD in Energy Trades with the CoronaRenMenBi?

NoCoupForYou says

What does this mean for the Iranian Oil Bourse? Will it still replace the USD in Energy Trades with the CoronaRenMenBi?

Yeah, have been reading about this at ZH for ten years now. Soon, very soon all oil trade will be denominated in [rubles], or [dinars], or [kauri seashells], and US of A economy will die a flaming death.

U.S. Says It Has Thwarted $6 Billion Russia-Germany Gas Pipeline

Patrick Donahue and Matthew Miller
BloombergFebruary 15, 2020

(Bloomberg) -- President Donald Trump’s top energy official said he’s confident that Russia won’t be able to complete the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in the Baltic Sea -- and signaled that the U.S. will press forward with its opposition to the project.

Asked about Russian efforts to circumvent U.S. sanctions on the pipeline by completing it on its own, U.S. Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette said “they can’t” -- and dismissed claims that project owner Gazprom PJSC will face only a short delay.

“It’s going to be a very long delay, because Russia doesn’t have the technology,” Brouillette said in an interview at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday. “If they develop it, we’ll see what they do. But I don’t think it’s as easy as saying, well, we’re almost there, we’re just going to finish it.”

The pipeline, which would pump as much as 55 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually from fields in Siberia directly to Germany, has become a focus for geopolitical tensions across the Atlantic. Trump has assailed Germany for giving “billions” to Russia for gas while it benefits from U.S. protection.

Nord Stream 2’s owners had invested 5.8 billion euros ($6.3 billion) in the project by May 2019, according to company documents.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-says-thwarted-6-billion-154551054.html

WARSAW (UrduPoint News / Sputnik - 30th March, 2020) Poland's state energy company PGNiG said on Monday it had won a case against Russia's Gazprom on the price for gas and now had a right to get $1.5 billion back.

According to the Polish company, "Stockholm's arbitration court had made a final ruling in an arbitral case of PGNiG against Gazprom and Gazprom Export regarding the decrease in contractual price for gas delivered by Gazprom under the natural gas sale-and-purchase contract, signed on September 25, 1996.

WOMP WOMP!

Russians reap what they sow!

rd6B says

Yeah, have been reading about this at ZH for ten years now. Soon, very soon all oil trade will be denominated in [rubles], or [dinars], or [kauri seashells], and US of A economy will die a flaming death.

Israel Shamir and Esteban or Papi Escobar or whatever his name is. Total Ayatollah Russia shills.

The pipe layer which was coming from Far East to save the dying Nord Stream 2 project has suddenly changed its destination to Port Said:





Capitulation?

(Bloomberg) -- Natural gas flows from Europe’s biggest supplier slumped after a price rout and with storage sites at above-average levels.

Flows from Russia via the Yamal-Europe pipeline that runs across Belarus and Poland to Mallnow, Germany, slumped to zero Tuesday after a sharp decline since Sunday. Shipments into Baumgarten in Austria, a major European hub for Russian gas, fell by 25% from its 10-day average.

Gazprom PJSC said it continues to use the Yamal-Europe link, with actual volumes depending on client requests. Operators Gascade Gastransport GmbH and Gas Connect Austria GmbH have not notified the market of any currently planned or unplanned works.

“Such a significant reduction in gas transit is primarily driven by weak demand in Europe amid warm winter, high levels of gas in underground storage and demand distortion due to Covid-19,” VTB Capital said in a note.

The European gas market has been watching for signs when key producers Russia and Norway will start curbing flows as an unprecedented glut keep on growing. Prices at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility, Europe’s biggest traded market, plunged as low as 3.365 euros a megawatt-hour last week, or $40.7 per 1,000 cubic meters. Those levels indicate that the economics have deteriorated even for low-cost producers such as Gazprom.

“We note that on average Gazprom pays around $47 per 1,000 cubic meters of transit costs for pipelines other than Nord Stream, including via Ukraine, where the company has ship-or-pay obligations,” VTB Capital said.


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russian-gas-flows-europe-plunge-120744971.html

.

Strategist says

Gassyprom does not innovate. It is dependent on the market only. Just like OPEC.

Its value is based mostly on a commodity. I agree, as Gazprom has to figure out how to become more productive or profitable.

At least it is good news for the German economy which depends a lot on Gazprom for natural gas.

.

Farewell from US Ambassador Grenell: New threat against Nord Stream 2

The United States is preparing further sanctions against Nord Stream 2.

Berlin Richard Grenell did not make many friends in Berlin, but this was never his intention. The outgoing US ambassador did not come as a diplomat, he came as a banner bearer of the America first ideology of his president Donald Trump - and so he also says goodbye.

In the usual undiplomatic tone, Grenell calls on the federal government to fundamentally rethink its policy on Russia. "Germany must stop feeding the beast while not paying enough for NATO ," he told the Handelsblatt. Grenell had already left Berlin on Sunday. He will probably never come back to Germany.

The Americans have long been bothered by German imports of Russian gas. Above all , they fought the Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea pipeline with a determination that had long been underestimated in the federal government. At the end of last year, the USA managed to force a construction freeze. Your means: threats of sanction against western specialist companies who lay the pipes on the bottom of the Baltic Sea with their ships. Since then, the Russians have been trying to complete the rest of the pipeline themselves. To do this, they moved two ships to German coastal waters.

The movements of the ships "Akademik Tscherski" and "Fortuna" are suspiciously followed by the United States. Because the Americans expect the Russians to ultimately succeed in completing the pipeline. The next economic policy intervention is therefore already being planned in Washington.

Grenell met with senators and MPs last week. "Further sanctions meet non-partisan approval," he reported. "Despite the election campaign, legislation could go ahead quickly." The Americans' goal: to prevent the pipeline from going into operation, if not construction. It is still unclear what form the new sanctions would take. One possibility would be to threaten companies with trade fines who use special equipment to maintain the pipelines. Sanctions against Russian gas buyers are also discussed in Washington.

https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=de&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.handelsblatt.com%2Fpolitik%2Finternational%2Fostseepipeline-abschiedsgruss-von-us-botschafter-grenell-neue-drohung-gegen-nord-stream-2%2F25861262.html

Gas Surplus Is So Big That Russian Flow Cut Can’t Move EU Prices

(Bloomberg) -- The natural gas glut is now so severe that prices hardly move even when Europe’s biggest supplier curbs flows to the region.

Europe is choking with gas as demand slumped in line with the virus-stricken global economy, storage sites are fuller than usual and little respite is seen in liquefied natural gas imports even with benchmark prices near record lows.

As traders watch for signs when key producers such as Russia and Norway start curbing flows, Gazprom PJSC, which has one of the lowest marginal costs of importers to Europe, briefly reduced shipments through a key link via Belarus and Poland. Russia’s move wasn’t enough to give prices a sustainable lift.

“Natural gas demand is very weak and low prices are signaling supply must be cut,” said Trevor Sikorski, a gas analyst at Energy Aspects Ltd. in London. “Prices will stay in a range in which it pressures supplies. Cuts now are keeping prices falling further.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gas-surplus-big-russian-flow-040000772.html

Europe is choking with gas

Sounds like World War One again.

.

That easy to figure out why. At least the Germans have cheap gas to heat their homes in the winter months.



.

Natural Gas May Be the Next Commodity to Trade Below Zero

(Bloomberg) -- The specter of negative prices is hanging over energy markets more than a month after oil’s unforgettable crash below zero.

... the $600 billion global gas market remains extraordinarily oversupplied. Traders and analysts say the worst may be yet to come as demand falls and storage nears capacity, creating the ideal conditions for negative prices in some parts of the world.

It shows just how far the global energy industry is from recovering from a pandemic-fueled slide in demand and signals more pain for producers from the shale fields of Texas to Australia’s Curtis Island. Unlike the oil market, there’s been no sign of a coordinated response to address the glut, meaning the fallout could be deeper and longer.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/natural-gas-may-next-major-230000786.html

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I question if we'll see a quick spike in natural gas prices because of the steady reduction in natural gas rigs.



.

https://www.ft.com/content/ffa48632-7456-4adf-8be1-786ae35b3394?ftcamp=traffic/partner/feed_headline/us_yahoo/auddev&yptr=yahoo

Gazprom has reported its first quarterly loss in more than four years as the coronavirus pandemic slashes gas demand and prices.

A 30 per cent fall in the value of the rouble during the first quarter of 2020 sparked by the oil price collapse compounded a slide in both shipments and prices for the Russian state gas group that is expected to continue throughout the year.

The $1.64bn loss underscores the deep fiscal pain that the Covid-19 pandemic will have on Russia, which is reeling from both an economic recession caused by a domestic lockdown and a global slowdown and a significant reduction in government tax revenues from lower oil, gas and other commodity sales.

Pompeo Warns Energy Majors Over New Russian Gas Pipelines

(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. is moving toward sanctions against energy companies involved in Russian pipelines to Europe and Turkey, escalating a threat to punish allies for pursuing projects that the U.S. argues will only benefit Russia.

s Europe’s domestic gas supplies decline, the region is becoming more dependent on imported fuel. The almost 10 billion-euro ($11 billion) Nord Stream 2 project from Russia to Germany is being financed by companies including Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Germany’s Uniper SE and Wintershall AG and France’s Engie SA. Allseas Group SA is helping to expand the Turk Stream link.

“Get out now or risk the consequences,” Secretary of State Michael Pompeo said at the State Department on Wednesday.

Under Wednesday’s move, the administration updated its guidance for companies seeking to abide by the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, or Caatsa, which is aimed at limiting business with Russia. The new guidance broadens the scope of the sanctions by making clear that more companies than previously thought could face sanctions for their work on the pipelines.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pompeo-warns-energy-majors-over-080020531.html

Moscow. 10th of August. INTERFAX.RU - The average price of Gazprom's gas exports in June 2020 fell to $ 82 per thousand cubic meters from $ 94 in May, follows from the data of the Federal Customs Service of Russia. This price is lower and lower than the price of the break-even level of Russian gas supplies to Europe.

According to Interfax's estimates, the profitable level of exports for Gazprom is at least $ 100 per 1,000 cubic meters: $ 13 - production cost, $ 14 - MET, $ 27 - transportation across Russia, at least $ 20 - transportation to target markets in Europe - over $ 70 in total and then add 30% customs duty. And according to Fitch Ratings, the break-even level is $ 105 per thousand cubic meters.

In January 2020, according to the Federal Customs Service, the average price for Gazprom's export portfolio was $ 162, in February - $ 143, in March - $ 125, in April - $ 109, in May - $ 94 per thousand cubic meters.

Thus, for the second reporting month, Gazprom has been selling gas abroad at a loss.

Gas prices under Gazprom's contracts continued to fall steeply, although spot quotes began to recover from historic lows reached in May.

TrumpingTits says

Gazprom is a SOE. So it doesn't matter if it is profitable or not.

... until the S in that acronym goes tits up from overstretching itself. Just like it did last time.

No Nord Stream 2? No problem for Germany, economists say

FRANKFURT/BERLIN/DUESSELDORF (Reuters) - Abandoning the nearly complete Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany could create a legal mess and nudge up energy costs for European households but Germany would cope with any disruption to supplies, economists say.

German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas at the weekend questioned the project -- thus far supported by Germany -- following the suspected poisoning of Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny.

Chancellor Angela Merkel's spokesman reinforced the shift in tone on Monday, saying she shared the view of Maas, who told newspaper Bild am Sonntag: "I certainly hope that the Russians will not force us to change our position on Nord Stream 2."

Their comments cast doubt over the future of a project that is more than 90% complete, scheduled to operate from early 2021 and which would double the capacity of the existing Nord Stream 1 pipeline from Russia to Germany, Europe's largest economy.

Knocking out that additional capacity would put upward pressure on gas prices. But reduced energy demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and slack in the German economy, would give Berlin time to work out alternative additional supply sources.

"Germany could easily afford it," Berenberg Bank economist Holger Schmieding said of the possibility of axing the pipeline, describing the impact on economic output as "negligible".


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/no-nord-stream-2-no-164201815.html

Poland fines Russia's Gazprom $7.6 billion over pipeline

WARSAW, Poland (AP) — Polish antitrust authorities have fined Russia's state-owned energy giant Gazprom $7.6 billion (6.5 billion euros) for building the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to Germany, saying the project hurts Polish consumers and increases Europe’s dependence on Russian imports.

....

The Polish authorities said the companies failed to obtain the required permission to jointly build and finance the pipeline, saying that violated antitrust laws. The decision obliges the six companies to cancel their contracts for financing the project.

“Carrying out the project is tantamount to breaking the rules of law and of fair competition that will lead to an increased dependence of gas recipients on the internal market on one supplier - Gazprom,” the antitrust office said.

....

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/poland-fines-russias-gazprom-7-102519721.html

What they're saying: "Following the recent geopolitical developments leading to the imposition of U.S. sanctions on Nord Stream 2 AG, the company had to terminate contracts with employees. We very much regret this development," Nord Stream 2 AG — a wholly owned subsidiary of Russia's Gazprom — told Reuters in a statement.

Between the lines: Even as the West and private companies have moved to fully isolate Russia over its unprovoked attack on Ukraine, former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder — the chairman of the board of Nord Stream 2 AG — has yet to cut his lucrative ties with Russian energy giants.

Members of his office staff have quit in protest, according to Politico.

https://news.yahoo.com/operator-nord-stream-2-files-190612218.html?source=patrick.net

DIE, MOTHERFUCKING GAZPROM, FUCKING DIE ALREADY!

Eric Holder says

DIE, MOTHERFUCKING GAZPROM, FUCKING DIE ALREADY!

Hmmm... https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/OGZPY/?source=patrick.net

richwicks says

Eric Holder says

DIE, MOTHERFUCKING GAZPROM, FUCKING DIE ALREADY!

Hmmm... https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/OGZPY/?source=patrick.net

Good start.

Eric Holder says

richwicks says

Eric Holder says

DIE, MOTHERFUCKING GAZPROM, FUCKING DIE ALREADY!

Hmmm... https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/OGZPY/?source=patrick.net

Good start.

All it's going to do is drive up energy prices in Europe and Russia will just reroute energy to China. What? You think Gazprom is going to go tits up? British Petroleum poisoned the entire Gulf of Mexico.

China is the biggest customer for Russian Oil and Gas. $50B worth, twice that of the next European buyer.

"Power of Siberia" already pumps 38B CM3 of Gas to China. Soyuz East will be the same size as Nordstream.

This is just gas, not oil, coal, etc.

richwicks says

You think Gazprom is going to go tits up?

We'll see. Tits up, broken into smaller entities or laying on the bottom of Russian Ocean - all fine with me. =))

AmericanKulak says

China is the biggest customer for Russian Oil and Gas. $50B worth, twice that of the next European buyer.

"Power of Siberia" already pumps 38B CM3 of Gas to China. Soyuz East will be the same size as Nordstream.

This is just gas, not oil, coal, etc.

Good: more market for US LNG.

Eric Holder says

AmericanKulak says

China is the biggest customer for Russian Oil and Gas. $50B worth, twice that of the next European buyer.

"Power of Siberia" already pumps 38B CM3 of Gas to China. Soyuz East will be the same size as Nordstream.

This is just gas, not oil, coal, etc.

Good: more market for US LNG.

Yeah! FUCK those Europeans! Double their energy costs!

BTW - this is Moderna's stock:

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MRNA?p=MRNA&.tsrc=fin-srch

It's down 75% from its high. The difference is, no way would I consider buying them. Remember when we had that pandemic? Last week?

richwicks says

Good: more market for US LNG.

Yeah! FUCK those Europeans! Double their energy costs!

Bullshit: US gas is very competetive. What's more - it's safe. I agree with Trump: we should have a strong political, military and economical alliance with Europe. Russia can have good relations with us if it chooses to behave like a proper European country or go be a China's bitch if it doesn't.

Eric Holder says

richwicks says

Good: more market for US LNG.

Yeah! FUCK those Europeans! Double their energy costs!

Bullshit: US gas is very competetive. What's more - it's safe. I agree with Trump: we should have a strong political, military and economical alliance with Europe. Russia can have good relations with us if it chooses to behave like a proper European country or go be a China's bitch if it doesn't.

Agreed - and European countries can do business with whomever they want (they may of course lose nato "protection" but that may not be a bad thing at all), incl. Russia.

Eric Holder says

richwicks says

Good: more market for US LNG.

Yeah! FUCK those Europeans! Double their energy costs!

Bullshit: US gas is very competetive. What's more - it's safe.

Compressing natural gas, and putting it into ships, to cart over to Europe is not competitive, AT ALL, to a pipeline.

And what do you mean "it's safe"? It's natural gas. Russian natural gas isn't more volatile than US natural gas.

Eric Holder says

I agree with Trump: we should have a strong political, military and economical alliance with Europe.

Yeah, the oligarchy doesn't give a shit about that. Russia's banking system isn't under the control of the same people that run our banking system or Europe's, and if Russia can't export energy, the US can always do it by stealing it from the Middle East after they kill a few million people and make a profit.

That's all this is about.

Eric Holder says

Russia can have good relations with us if it chooses to behave like a proper European country or go be a China's bitch if it doesn't.

Dude, we're China's bitch. Look at the clothes you're wearing, the device you're using, the chair you're sitting in, the rug under your feet, even the paint on your walls - where do you think that came from?

Russia has a TRADE SURPLUS. All this crap about "Russia is a poor country" - yeah, maybe measured in terms of GDP, which is a bullshit measurement, which is why the US uses it. The richest country in the world today, is clearly China.

BERLIN—The German government will temporarily take control of a key unit of Russian state-owned natural gas giant Gazprom PJSC in Germany

https://www.wsj.com/articles/berlin-takes-control-of-gazproms-german-business-11649086113?source=patrick.net

Accumulating Resources and/or Making things is wealth, that's the ultimate purpose of money - to buy those commodities and things.

By that measure, the US is not rich.

AmericanKulak says

Accumulating Resources and/or Making things is wealth, that's the ultimate purpose of money - to buy those commodities and things.

By that measure, the US is not rich.

About 90% of the US's GDP is internal to the US. Only about 10% is trade related The amount of GDP that is trade related is among the lowest in the world. We also have the highest GDP in the world and our GDP per capita on a PPP basis is also very high.

We run a trade deficit, but out multi-national corporations' (mostly held by US stockholders) foreign operations dwarf this by a huge amount.

There is about $15 trillion in dollar denominated debt outside the US, As the Fed raises interest rates from near zero, the repercussions will be huge as dollars will become rapidly more needed to pay the interest on this debt.

We are the richest country on earth.