patrick.net

Patrick says

I finally arrived, in a way. I gave notice at work today, will be done with work in two weeks.

I'm able to retire early because I put it all in the stock market and not in the housing market.

So now I'm technically retired, and I got this email from Schwab today:

How Can I Stop Living Paycheck to Paycheck?

By Carrie Schwab-Pomerantz

Living paycheck to paycheck can feel like you're on an endless financial treadmill. Here's how to jump off.

I stopped living paycheck to paycheck by no longer getting paychecks!

Apropos of nothing, I was in a Juno Beach charity second hand store and chatted with the guy in there.

I check them out sometimes while I’m in the area, on my way to Dunkin.

He was from a nice part of LA and retired out here.

I’m bumping into guys from California more than I did a few years ago.

Bought an oil painting with old ships, it looks like Francis Swaine, but I’m not sure.

Patrick says

I stopped living paycheck to paycheck by no longer getting paychecks!

Congrats and enjoy retirement! Any travel plans???

Yes, going to check out Washington State in June or so, anywhere except Seattle.

No income tax there, nice scenery, some relatives.

I'll go anywhere that does not demand me to show papers proving I've been injected with an experimental agent to make Fauci rich.

Patrick says

Yes, going to check out Washington State in June or so, anywhere except Seattle.

No income tax there, nice scenery, some relatives.

I'll go anywhere that does not demand me to show papers proving I've been injected with an experimental agent to make Fauci rich.

Nice, Idaho and Utah are beautiful too. And taking my wife to Yellowstone Park (rented a nice jeep) was one of my favorite vacations. I've never really been in Washington other than Seattle.

Interesting plots of stock market returns:





from https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/04/stock-market-returns-are-anything-but-average/

Going up 40%, then down 40% doesn't put you back at the starting point. I'd like to see this plot with a dB change scale, so going up 1 dB and then down 1 dB puts you back at starting point.

Good point. The first 40% up is 40% of a smaller number, so 40% up then down leaves you at 84% of original number:

1.4 * 0.6 = 0.84

Still, on average you do win in the stock market. It's like a casino with an upward bias, unlike Vegas casinos.

Patrick says

Good point. The first 40% up is 40% of a smaller number, so 40% up then down leaves you at 84% of original number:

1.4 * 0.6 = 0.84

Still, on average you do win in the stock market. It's like a casino with an upward bias, unlike Vegas casinos.

Also you can't compound the numbers in that graph so you're not really going up 40% from the starting point if you make 40% 2 years in a row. But def looks like a casino with a healthy upward bias.

I only want 5% higher W5000.

I would prefer not much more capital appreciation if I would not pay high taxes.

But, I'm afraid we're fucked after 2025 when the Bush tax cuts expire. Add Biden tax raises and feel the pain.

clambo says

we're fucked after 2025 when the Bush tax cuts expire

@clambo What are the details of those Bush tax cuts?

One tax which is going up automatically is the capital gains tax.

I’m going to be fucked it looks like.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p5U9mV7ombQ

Houses that would normally have 5 to 15 offers aren't getting any: John Pasalis

Houses in my area (NorCal) are flying off the shelves. 2-3 days sell time when a house comes up, zero inventory (except trash pits.)

rocketjoe79 says

Houses in my area (NorCal) are flying off the shelves. 2-3 days sell time when a house comes up, zero inventory (except trash pits.)

I've said it before. A family of 4 was given $160k of purchase power with the last round of stimulus round alone. $5,600 down on FHA or conventional.

We're going to see a quick spike as the inventory is eaten up and people burn their stimulus. Won't be a crash, but wouldn't touch housing right now. People given free money do stupid shit. 12-24 months they'll be delinquent. Getting a downpayment doesn't mean you can pay it. We're at a peak or about to be. Probably will just stagnate without further money printing and stimulus. I know there's inflation everywhere, but I think a lot of working families got a free government check for a down payment.

CA is an anomaly, so I can't predict that. Most the country will go sideways or slight decline without even more inflation. Shit, my airline points doubled from what I usually pay to DEN. 6-8k points was the norm for a non-stop. 15k for my June trip to Red Rocks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ui7DWkaBNoI

Bidding wars calm down as sellers come to market

Excellent analysis of the Tampa area:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YCd5kjDXk7o

One thing they guy is showing how deaths are going to influence housing availability.

I would not expect Florida real estate to "crash" because there is high demand from people escaping taxes, fucked politics, crime and snow.

The scenery and weather aren't as good as California, but they're mostly coming from NYC, NJ, Michigan and other places that kind of suck.

clambo says

I would not expect Florida real estate to "crash" because there is high demand from people escaping taxes, fucked politics, crime and snow.

The scenery and weather aren't as good as California, but they're mostly coming from NYC, NJ, Michigan and other places that kind of suck.

As expensive as Tampa is right now, I would not be surprised to see it correct. Not at the 50% level, but at some meaningful level yes.

Does anyone have any good stock tips and reason behind it?

Thinking of adding to my S&P500, QQQ, and reits. AAPL and TMO are also on my list. Appreciate any feedback.

Taiwan semiconductor. Everyone needs their products and demand has consistently continued to grow. They are always ahead of their competition on technology as well.

clambo says

I would not expect Florida real estate to "crash"

theoakman says

Taiwan semiconductor

Thanks!! just reading up on it. Will add that one to my portfolio....they have a gross margin of 50% and operating margin of 40%. Morningstar determines fair value at 133......stock is trading at 116.

We're getting solicitations to sell all the time now. Passive stack has gone up many fleet Hummers since January with lots left over for hookers and blow. I hope it makes up for the value burning inflationary spiral at least.

Bitcoin says

Does anyone have any good stock tips and reason behind it?

@Bitcoin

I still think SHOP has longer to go on its epic bull run because they are the dominant way to set up a commercial website.

I think FRO is crazy undervalued. I don't know why that is, but it's so cheap and revenue keeps increasing, so I bought some.

I think LUV will easily regain its former highs and keep going because their customer service is so superior to other airlines'.

I would avoid any cannabis-related stocks. I got slaughtered on each one I bought. I guess it's ultimately just a commodity.

Funeral homes might do well if lots more people do drop dead from the "vaccine", so I'm considering SCI, which has a p/e of only 14 and a dividend. It's sad, but hey, I'm not the one murdering all those people with viruses and "vaccines", Fauci is.

I bought some shares in LAND, a small REIT which buys farmland.

Overall, I think the market is too high and could easily crash and stay down for years, as it has twice before in my memory. I'm willing to wait that out.

Patrick says

Bitcoin says

Does anyone have any good stock tips and reason behind it?

@Bitcoin

I still think SHOP has longer to go on its epic bull run because they are the dominant way to set up a commercial website.

I think FRO is crazy undervalued. I don't know why that is, but it's so cheap and revenue keeps increasing, so I bought some.

I think LUV will easily regain its former highs and keep going because their customer service is so superior to other airlines'.

I would avoid any cannabis-related stocks. I got slaughtered on each one I bought. I guess it's ultimately just a commodity.

Funeral homes might do well if lots more people do drop dead from the "vaccine", so I'm considering SCI, which has a p/e of only 14 and a dividend. It's sad, but hey, I'm not the one murdering all those people with viruses and "vaccines", Fauci is.

I bought some shares in LAN...

@Patrick the cash to debt ratio for FRO is horrendous. That's why they're undervalued. If they can stay profitable, grow net revs and keep chipping away at the debt while servicing it it's a great stock which could net crazy gains but you have to bet on a continued rebound for years. Any crisis will rapidly increase the debt again and wipe out prior progress. That's why it's possible that they will do a capital raise to pay off more debt and dilute soon. Esp. if the price keeps climbing. That being said, it's probably one of the best shippers to own. Spot prices have been rising and the outlook is decent. High insider ownership is also a good sign.

Maybe it's a question of interest rates. As long as rates are artificially held near zero, they can support quite a lot of debt.

Patrick says

Maybe it's a question of interest rates. As long as rates are artificially held near zero, they can support quite a lot of debt.

Yeah as long as they can roll it over and find lenders it's fine. We have expected rates to rise now for almost 10 years and they have neared and stayed at historic lows. Also I noticed that there quarterly growth has been slumping but that may likely have been Covid standstill and the whole industry is coming out of it now.

6 months later, the stock market and the housing market, both, are at all time high. 🤑🤑🤑

Now, the question is are we in a bubble?

Easy to answer that:

Is the cost of owning more than the cost of renting the same thing over the typical 6 or 7 year holding period for a house?

You can use the NY Slimes rent-vs-buy calculator.

You haven’t changed your flawed thesis Patrick. 👍

What's flawed about it?

Eman says

6 months later, the stock market and the housing market, both, are at all time high. 🤑🤑🤑

And while I bought my house with 20% down, I’m approaching 50% equity.

Eman says

You haven’t changed your flawed thesis Patrick. 👍

It's not flawed if the Fed didn't meddle so ginormously in the market.

There's no prolonged crash on the horizon this year, maybe brief corrections like we have seen but stock and hosting market will continue to climb. Out of controls rates, back to back bad auctions or a surprise Fed rate hike could trigger a bigger correction, and, as always poor earnings and layoffs (which are nowhere in sight). We gotta wait for inflation to keep climbing, not damaging enough yet.

rocketjoe79 says

Houses in my area (NorCal) are flying off the shelves. 2-3 days sell time when a house comes up, zero inventory (except trash pits.)

Where are you in NorCal? I'm in Sonoma County. I'm glad I didn't buy here in 2015 the fires suck!

Shorting S&P got half on will add other mon..using an inverse etf wish me luck :P

Patrick says

Yes, going to check out Washington State in June or so, anywhere except Seattle.

No income tax there, nice scenery, some relatives.

I'll go anywhere that does not demand me to show papers proving I've been injected with an experimental agent to make Fauci rich.

Tennessee no income tax in 2021! Southern people are the nicest! I enjoyed my trip to NC! I'm going back in Oct and plan to move next year! The state is filled with trees. Pretty cool when you go walking at night, there's fireflies and bunnies hopping around.

Never ending almost zero rate gov money drives markets for decades already. In BA companies are minting millionaires at record rate. Most of the tech money chasing very few available housing around and elsewhere. There no new housing being built and there is no skin in the game to sell under 1978 Prop 13 for existing houses. Unless market crashes and companies start mass layoffs, housing can keep going up even more on latest hyper inflation. Inflation is a friend of money transfer from savers to debtors. Govs around became like a drunken sailors lately with financial engineering.