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I'm starting to think DEFLATION is coming


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2021 Jul 16, 11:39am   9,249 views  115 comments

by joshuatrio   ➕follow (4)   💰tip   ignore  

Simply because all I hear about on the internet/news/podcasts is inflation, INFLATION, INFLATION... When MSM is spewing one thing, haven't we learned by now to do the opposite?

At some point, people can't keep up with the rising prices and quit buying. Wouldn't that naturally lead to deflation? I know the fed can print indefinitely, but if people refuse to spend, I think we'd still have a downward slope in prices. Additionally, with the "supply" shortages caused by government paying people to stay home, I would assume these shortages would stop once people start going back.

Ourselves and people in our neighborhood pretty much said "fuck it" to all projects that required lumber, and we're seeing those prices starting to come back down. I think we'll see the same with car prices and most other commodities.

Here was a good article on what I feel is starting to happen:

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hangover-here-explosive-inflation-leads-record-collapse-home-car-purchase-plans

I was gung ho on buying real estate the other month, but I've had some people who own hundreds of rentals tell me last month to wait 3-6 months minimum, as they expect prices to start falling.

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22   fdhfoiehfeoi   2021 Jul 16, 11:51pm  

RC2006 says
Same but I think our future is gov controled digital currency.


Not mine. If that goes into effect, you'll know I'm dead. Life is not so precious to me that I'm willing to live in chains.
23   fdhfoiehfeoi   2021 Jul 17, 12:06am  

WineHorror1 says
No State

There's your answer.


Hamilton, is that you? The state is mentioned because the focus of the document was the only government that was allowed to exercise anything outlined in the Constitution. That's specifically stated at the end of the document. Feds had no power to do anything.
24   fdhfoiehfeoi   2021 Jul 17, 12:10am  

MisdemeanorRebellionNoCoupForYou says
As I said in the other thread, this is fine but there has to be a Constitutional Amendment requiring ALL Wages and Salaries to be paid in actual gold and silver, no notes, no IOUs, no 'here's a paper receipt for 20 ounces of silver deposited at the First Mises-Rothbard Bank'. Employers have to pay people's hourly or salary wages in actual physical gold and silver in their hand at least once per month.


No, we just need to start following the Constitution. Central banking fiat currencies are completely illegal. Just because a rigged system says their money is legal, doesn't legitimize it. In fact, that's always been the hallmark of worthless money substitutes, that a corrupt government forces their usage. If no one forced you to take dollars, they would disappear within a few years.
25   AmericanKulak   2021 Jul 17, 12:19am  

NuttBoxer says
No, we just need to start following the Constitution. Central banking fiat currencies are completely illegal. Just because a rigged system says their money is legal, doesn't legitimize it. In fact, that's always been the hallmark of worthless money substitutes, that a corrupt government forces their usage. If no one forced you to take dollars, they would disappear within a few years.


Oh, my law is Constitutional - you have to be paid in Gold or Silver, not a Banknote "representing a private company's promise to give you the silver which if you go to the bank, they will hem and haw and try to get you to take other paper instead of actual physical coin.".

Nope, you must be paid in the precious metal, all salaries and wages. Not paper of any kind. Corporations and Banks can trade the paper between themselves, as long as we get the actual metals, not the Wildcat Bank Script, Scrap, and Inked On Nonsense all Fractionally Reserved. They must pay all wages and salaries in the physical currency.

"Oh, this is a Banknote on the First China Bank of 88 Dragon for 10 troy ounces of Silver, you take, Wogah Wikardson, you take for your work at Numbah 10 Lucky Retail Store."
"No Cheng, I want my 10 troy ounces in Metal Silver per the law, in my hand."

Of course, this is exactly what they don't want to do. They want to keep the physical metal and give all the plebes the paper.

Only way I'll accept the Gold and Silver Standard is that it is 0% Paper/Digital and 100% Actual Metal for wages/salary.
26   SoTex   2021 Jul 17, 12:38am  

I think deflation is on the horizon too but keep in mind we can have technology induced deflation and asset inflation at the same time.
27   gabbar   2021 Jul 17, 4:59am  

Went to a restaurant supplies store yesterday. A lot of restaurants use this store; it is open to public. Prices of most items were significantly highly. For example a Volrath frying pan that was $40 precovid is $60 now. I imagine restaurants will pass on these costs to the consumer....but how long will this model survive?
28   GNL   2021 Jul 17, 5:01am  

I just spent $18 for a burger, fries and soda last night at 5 Guys.
29   joshuatrio   2021 Jul 17, 5:28am  

gabbar says
I imagine restaurants will pass on these costs to the consumer....but how long will this model survive?


That's my point. I think as prices go up, people will just quit paying. I'm already seeing it in my own buying habits, as well as people I know.
30   gabbar   2021 Jul 17, 5:46am  

joshuatrio says
gabbar says
I imagine restaurants will pass on these costs to the consumer....but how long will this model survive?


That's my point. I think as prices go up, people will just quit paying. I'm already seeing it in my own buying habits, as well as people I know.


I walked out without buying anything from the restaurant supply store. I was looking for a better olive oil dispenser; I will make do with the oil dispenser I already have, no big deal. I am not going to pay those prices for a better oil dispenser.
31   gabbar   2021 Jul 17, 5:53am  

joshuatrio says
gabbar says
I imagine restaurants will pass on these costs to the consumer....but how long will this model survive?


That's my point. I think as prices go up, people will just quit paying. I'm already seeing it in my own buying habits, as well as people I know.


Pre-covid, I loaded up on clothes and winter clothing at Dillard's at sale prices. I am in good shape for the next few years; I see Dillards full of crappy clothing now but its stock price is above $150; makes no sense to me.
32   Booger   2021 Jul 17, 6:08am  

WineHorror1 says
I just spent $18 for a burger, fries and soda last night at 5 Guys.


I remember when $5 was considered expensive for a hamburger.
33   GNL   2021 Jul 17, 6:34am  

Booger says
WineHorror1 says
I just spent $18 for a burger, fries and soda last night at 5 Guys.


I remember when $5 was considered expensive for a hamburger.

AND I can tell there is something different about the meat. Big difference.
34   gabbar   2021 Jul 17, 6:37am  

WineHorror1 says
Booger says
WineHorror1 says
I just spent $18 for a burger, fries and soda last night at 5 Guys.


I remember when $5 was considered expensive for a hamburger.

AND I can tell there is something different about the meat. Big difference.


And it is not a better difference I am sure......so what's going into the meat; is it even meat?
35   GNL   2021 Jul 17, 6:47am  

gabbar says
WineHorror1 says
Booger says
WineHorror1 says
I just spent $18 for a burger, fries and soda last night at 5 Guys.


I remember when $5 was considered expensive for a hamburger.

AND I can tell there is something different about the meat. Big difference.


And it is not a better difference I am sure......so what's going into the meat; is it even meat?

Correct. Texture and taste are different.
36   porkchopXpress   2021 Jul 17, 7:05am  

joshuatrio says
Simply because all I hear about on the internet/news/podcasts is inflation, INFLATION, INFLATION... When MSM is spewing one thing, haven't we learned by now to do the opposite?
I totally agree with this. The MSM is psychologically preparing the public for a reversal so that the Fed can justify mopping up all this liquidity, which we all know will cause a crash. This is how the TPTB transfer wealth from the little people to them.
37   Onvacation   2021 Jul 17, 7:35am  

Booger says
WineHorror1 says
I just spent $18 for a burger, fries and soda last night at 5 Guys.


I remember when $5 was considered expensive for a hamburger.

I used to get a burger, fries, and a soda and get change from my $1 at McDonald's.
38   clambo   2021 Jul 17, 7:44am  

Technology has made some things less expensive (deflation); communication comes to mind.
I ran up a $700 phone bill once with my international and “long distance” USA calls.
Today voip is free, with FaceTime, WhatsApp, etc.

The government is creating wage inflation right now; it’s paying for people to stay home, so McDonalds is offering a $200 bonus to work ($11/hr) and Target is offering $15/hour.

With wage inflation, almost everything goes up.

The government has also made real estate less available; people are not being foreclosed as they normally would be, and they are not being evicted either.

I would not be buying a house now either until the interference ends.

Silver sucks, my friend has a lot of it that he bought for $45-$50+ per ounce years ago, that’s the epitome of the opportunity cost; I was yelling at him to buy mutual funds and AAPL at the time. I made a bundle and he’s underwater.
39   Bd6r   2021 Jul 17, 8:07am  

WineHorror1 says
Correct. Texture and taste are different.

"pink slime"
40   WookieMan   2021 Jul 17, 8:13am  

Booger says
WineHorror1 says
I just spent $18 for a burger, fries and soda last night at 5 Guys.


I remember when $5 was considered expensive for a hamburger.

If you can, go rural. We went out last night with the kids and my Blackened Chicken Sandwich with fries and 5 beers (we walked) was $18. I think the total before tip was like $55 for two pizzas, tenders, fish tenders and my meal included. Service was slow because no one wants to work, but we know everyone and we are patient and also the reason for 5 beers, lol. I think 2 Tito's and soda for the wife as well. Sit down place, food made fresh.

I've given up on chains for the most part and fast foods 100%. We'll hit some up on vacations but that's about it. Last time I think I had 5 Guys was out in Bozeman. Only 2nd time. Wasn't impressed regardless of the price. I prefer to cook at home or go local where I know the food and the people cooking it. Tip well and give back to the community in a small way. McDonalds and the like are there to extract money from your community. I wish they were short staffed and not my local restaurants and bars. And yes, I know most are franchisees, but it's rare for them to be individual and not own multiple.
41   GNL   2021 Jul 17, 8:24am  

WookieMan says
Booger says
WineHorror1 says
I just spent $18 for a burger, fries and soda last night at 5 Guys.


I remember when $5 was considered expensive for a hamburger.

If you can, go rural. We went out last night with the kids and my Blackened Chicken Sandwich with fries and 5 beers (we walked) was $18. I think the total before tip was like $55 for two pizzas, tenders, fish tenders and my meal included. Service was slow because no one wants to work, but we know everyone and we are patient and also the reason for 5 beers, lol. I think 2 Tito's and soda for the wife as well. Sit down place, food made fresh.

I've given up on chains for the most part and fast foods 100%. We'll hit some up on vacations but that's about it. Last time I think I had 5 Guys was out in Bozeman. Only 2nd time. Wasn't impressed rega...

5 Guys used to be my favorite burger place. No longer. Won't ever go again. Yes, things are expensive in Northern Virginia. I live about 1 mile from the CIA.
42   Booger   2021 Jul 17, 8:37am  

WookieMan says
Last time I think I had 5 Guys was out in Bozeman. Only 2nd time. Wasn't impressed regardless of the price.


I also think that 5 guys sucks.
43   Bd6r   2021 Jul 17, 8:43am  

WookieMan says
I prefer to cook at home or go local where I know the food and the people cooking it. Tip well and give back to the community in a small way. McDonalds and the like are there to extract money from your community. I wish they were short staffed and not my local restaurants and bars. And yes, I know most are franchisees, but it's rare for them to be individual and not own multiple.

That type of attitude may help bring down corporate idiocy and influence of Big Woke Corporations on society. Buy local, patronize local mom and pop restaurants, etc. We bought half of cow from a local farmer and some chickens, drink local beer, don't drink coke and Pepsi, etc. We can't do this for all of our needs, but if enough people do this, Big Woke Business Which Sucks Biden Dick will suffer. They are getting crafty though. Example is karbach brewery in Houston, it was independent, then was bought by a conglomerate, beer started tasting like piss, and it took superhuman efforts to figure out that they have sold out (nothing mentioned on label, still supposedly local).
44   NDrLoR   2021 Jul 17, 8:45am  

Booger says
I also think that 5 guys sucks
They've also left Waco.
45   WookieMan   2021 Jul 17, 8:46am  

WineHorror1 says
5 Guys used to be my favorite burger place. No longer. Won't ever go again. Yes, things are expensive in Northern Virginia. I live about 1 mile from the CIA.

$18 just seems nuts for a burger meal. Just started this year, but bought half a cow. For $18 I could take 3 tubes of ground beef we have and make probably 20 burgers. We have about 20 tubes. Freshly processed. I'm pressing burgers today for tomorrow grilling. Doing 4 racks of ribs as well. I'm sure you know this, as long as you keep an eye on it, can season well, it's hard to fuck up cooking. Just takes time, hence why fast food is popular.

When I was doing a 9-5 I'd pack a lunch. Leftovers or a basic turkey or ham sandwich. I got suck into the fast food black hole in my 20's and it sucked. Wasn't fat, but was overweight for my age. Regret not being in better shape so I dumped the fast food and lost 15lbs. It was daily McDonalds. It was awful. Metabolism caught up to me around 28.
46   porkchopXpress   2021 Jul 17, 8:52am  

I like Five Guys but yes, their prices are high.
47   fdhfoiehfeoi   2021 Jul 17, 8:45pm  

MisdemeanorRebellionNoCoupForYou says
Only way I'll accept the Gold and Silver Standard is that it is 0% Paper/Digital and 100% Actual Metal for wages/salary.


Paper is actually more valuable in an honest financial system, seriously. Look at the bank of Florence Venice, kicked ass at evaluating all kinds of coin in circulation, and never, and I mean NEVER practiced fractional reserve banking. If they said they had your money, they had it, every red cent. And not just in a month, or on a Wednesday, but every day, 24/7 365. Because of their reputation their paper held a very high value.
48   B.A.C.A.H.   2021 Jul 17, 8:51pm  

NuttBoxer says
Look at the bank of Florence, kicked ass at evaluating all kinds of coin in circulation, and never, and I mean NEVER practiced fractional reserve banking. If they said they had your money, they had it, every red cent. And not just in a month, or on a Wednesday, but every day, 24/7 365. Because of their reputation their paper held a very high value.


What happened?
49   AmericanKulak   2021 Jul 17, 11:51pm  

NuttBoxer says

Paper is actually more valuable in an honest financial system, seriously. Look at the bank of Florence,


Look at the backpages of19th Century US/UK newspapers. You deposit physical silver, get a banknote for the amount, go a state over, and they want to give you only 80% of that paper.

No Paper, physical only. Banks and Corporations can trade paper. Wages, Salaries get paid in physical metal. Best insurance against bank failures ever.
50   AmericanKulak   2021 Jul 17, 11:54pm  

NuttBoxer says
If they said they had your money, they had it, every red cent.




A balance sheet from the London branch of the Medici Bank, dated November 12, 1477, shows that a significant number of the bank’s debts corresponded to demand deposits. Raymond de Roover himself estimates that at one point, the bank’s primary reserves were down to 50 percent of total demand liabilities. 60 If we apply the standard criterion used by A.P. Usher, this implies a credit expansion ratio of twice the demand deposits received by the bank. There is evidence, however, that this ratio gradually worsened over the bank’s life-span, especially after 1464, a year that marked the beginning of growing difficulties for the bank. The roots of the general economic and bank crisis that ruined the Medici Bank resemble those Carlo M. Cipolla identifies in his study of fourteenth-century Florence. As a matter of fact, credit expansion resulting from bankers’ misappropriation of demand deposits gave rise to an artificial boom fed by the increase in the money supply and its seemingly “beneficial” short-term effects. Nevertheless, since this process sprang from an increase in the money supply, namely credit unbacked by growth in real savings...

https://cdn.mises.org/Money_Bank_Credit_and_Economic_Cycles_De%20Soto.pdf

Banks would never become powerful entities if all they did was charge a small fee for locking up gold or assisting distant transactions.

Paying wages/salaries in physical gold/silver only means that all the Financial Shennanigans would mostly bite Bankers on the ass and leave the ordinary folks alone- even benefit them during a crisis as big orgs would bleed inventory and other assets to cover their ass and only ordinary people would have the real cash to buy them up.
51   fdhfoiehfeoi   2021 Jul 18, 9:12am  

B.A.C.A.H. says
What happened?


Sorry, it was Venice not Florence. The politicians eventually forgot why they had outlawed fractional reserve, and re-instated it.
52   fdhfoiehfeoi   2021 Jul 18, 9:17am  

MisdemeanorRebellionNoCoupForYou says
Banks would never become powerful entities if all they did was charge a small fee for locking up gold or assisting distant transactions.


Venice did charge for holding deposits, notary work, etc. But they did not loan out what they did not have. Their paper actually commanded a premium over metals because of the number of coins in circulation, and how good the bank was at determining value.
53   AmericanKulak   2021 Jul 18, 10:01am  

NuttBoxer says
Venice did charge for holding deposits, notary work, etc. But they did not loan out what they did not have. Their paper actually commanded a premium over metals because of the number of coins in circulation, and how good the bank was at determining value.


Good for Venice. Banks and Corporations can trade that wonderful paper with each other. Eventually, the bankers gave in to the usual pressure and it collapsed also. For the USA, all wages/salaries in physical metal.

If we're going to trade paper, we can trade paper without the gold/silver.

No Gold/Silver standard without a Constitutional Amendment to pay all wages in physical silver/gold and banning ANY AND ALL, Public OR Private, paper/digital for that purpose. And it must declared legal tender for the satisfaction of all debts, including physical delivery - nobody can refuse the metal itself as payment for purchases or debt.
54   Onvacation   2021 Jul 18, 10:10am  

NuttBoxer says
The politicians eventually forgot why they had outlawed fractional reserve, and re-instated it.

They didn't forget.
55   Shaman   2021 Jul 18, 12:56pm  

You’ll pay these prices and like it! Or else we will sell it all to people with more money than you!
56   fdhfoiehfeoi   2021 Jul 18, 11:05pm  

Onvacation says
They didn't forget.


Got greedy is a more negative, and possibly more accurate statement. They wanted loans.
57   fdhfoiehfeoi   2021 Jul 18, 11:09pm  

MisdemeanorRebellionNoCoupForYou says
If we're going to trade paper, we can trade paper without the gold/silver.


It all comes down to whether your bank is honest or not. If they are, then you should have no problem using paper for the transactions it makes sense for. If they aren't, then why the fuck are you banking there?
58   Patrick   2021 Jul 18, 11:16pm  

MisdemeanorRebellionNoCoupForYou says
No Gold/Silver standard without a Constitutional Amendment to pay all wages in physical silver/gold and banning ANY AND ALL, Public OR Private, paper/digital for that purpose. And it must declared legal tender for the satisfaction of all debts, including physical delivery - nobody can refuse the metal itself as payment for purchases or debt.



I would love this, but is it possible?

What is the ratio between all US wages paid in two weeks' time, and the total value of gold and silver in the US?

I really don't know the answer.
59   B.A.C.A.H.   2021 Jul 19, 8:00am  

Patrick says
What is the ratio between all US wages paid in two weeks' time, and the total value of gold and silver in the US?


In our search for an answer of tracking a commodity to create our own inflation gauge, we settled on an ounce of gold: how many hours of median-priced labor would a median American trade for an ounce of gold. This exercise morphed from trying to gauge inflation and purchasing power, into what would be a reasonable market price for an ounce of gold.

Of course, we had to take into account the deflation of purchasing power of American wages that was papered over by women transitioning into the Labor Force. We used Census data for this. The way that we did it was looking for inflection points in a smoothed plot of median household income to median wage income. (I have since lost all the data when my computer crashed).

The graph pointed to a date in the late 60's / early 70's. Surprise! Whaddaya know. That's the window when the US went off the Gold Standard. Going off the Gold Standard was a years-long process, not a single event. It began in 1968 when the US pulled out of the Gold Pool trading where a market price was set, and culminated in the 1971 Nixon decree.

Another inflection point was around 1995, when median household income vs median wage income flat-lined. We assumed it meant that all the homemakers who would ever enter the labor market, had done so. The slope of the trend that ended around 1995 correlated to about a 1% per year secular decline for the contribution of the individual worker to the household income. You could say, a 1% per year decline in the purchasing power / 1% decline in the standard of living per year.

These all pointed to, when we did analysis in 2007, a trade of something like 40 hours of median labor per ounce of gold. Assuming our 1% deflator, 14 years later a median worker have to trade about 46 hours of labor to pay for that ounce.

I lost all that data a few years later and am too Lazy to redo it.
60   Hircus   2021 Jul 19, 11:16am  

46 hrs per oz sounds reasonable.

Current price of $1800 / 46 = about $39 per hour equivalent.
61   Misc   2021 Jul 19, 11:46am  

Since the US only has about 8000 tonnes of gold in reserves, we have about $250 billion worth of gold.

The US has about $5.5 trillion in cash, bank deposits and money market instruments. Going to a gold standard is not feasible.

The metals markets are some of the most manipulated markets in the world with the major bullion banks holding just fractions of their outstanding obligations and in the case of silver they are naked short thousand and thousands of tonnes.

The government will not allow the peasants to crash the system and will outlaw owning precious metals physically before letting the banking system tumble.

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