patrick.net

This woman has some good insights:

https://www.lynalden.com/may-2021-newsletter/

... at the end of a long-term debt cycle, debt levels get so large relative to the size of the economy that it becomes impossible to deleverage them nominally without crashing the economy, so instead the denominators are increased: the monetary base, the broad money supply, and nominal GDP with a significant inflation component. The mechanism to do this involves large monetized fiscal deficits, accompanied by a central bank willing to hold rates well below the prevailing inflation rate for a while, which effectively inflates portions of the debt away.

The alternative to this process is a deflationary economic collapse, which is a route that the public and policymakers around the world rarely if ever choose. In other words, when push comes to shove and the system is pushed to its limits, policymakers invariably print.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1032048/value-us-dollar-since-1640/

You can play the EV market by buying Magna International. They are already profitable and makes parts for the EV market. Kinda like, don't bet on a particular country in the war, just the company building the bombs.

Bitcoin says

High performers at successful companies get high boni, RSU's and nice pay raises.

You're a unicorn then. The owners don't pass on the inflation gains this early in the cycle. Hence why I'll never work for someone else again, besides the customer for a business I own. Done working for others and they get the fruits of my labor. The owners are just another hand in the cookie jar that do dick for the money they get besides the risk. So I've decided to become the owner.

WookieMan says

Bitcoin says

High performers at successful companies get high boni, RSU's and nice pay raises.

You're a unicorn then. The owners don't pass on the inflation gains this early in the cycle

Good for you to be the owner. Agree, I wouldnt give out 6-8% across the board in pay raises just because inflation is running at 5% if i am the owner.

What i am talking about is high paying jobs at companies like in tech (shareholder owned corp). A director on avg makes about 250k. Does that person care if inflation is running at 2, 3 or 5%? I'd say not really. If your perform well its expected the company pays a raise above inflation. not to everyone, but to those that are rated highly (annually). The avg raises barely keep up with inflation.

Obviously it makes sense to incentivize high performers. They are harder to find/hire.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/mkt_breakingnews/annual-inflation-soars-to-5-percent-in-biggest-jump-since-2008_3852981.html?utm_source=patrick.net&utm_medium=patrick.net&utm_campaign=patrick.net

Annual Inflation Soars to 5 Percent in Biggest Jump Since 2008
BY TOM OZIMEK June 10, 2021

Inflation took a fresh swipe at American consumers in May, with the consumer price index surging by 5 percent over the past year, the biggest annual spike in the measure since 2008.

Thanks, Joe!

If we get even a small amount of hyper inflation how does that work with fixed payments like pensions and social security? I would think pensions get fucked because they are locked to past income.

RC2006 says

If we get even a small amount of hyper inflation how does that work with fixed payments like pensions and social security? I would think pensions get fucked because they are locked to past income.

They are supposed to get COLA.

Patrick says

value-us-dollar-since-1640/

They didn't have to pay for car insurance or for dental checkups back in 1640. What we call the deeply impoverished in the inner cities of America would have a quality of healthcare and nutrition completely unavailable to even kings during the enlightenment.

No doubt we're fucked. We're all gonna die. But in the meantime we live in a land of milk and honey.

https://notthebee.com/article/ceo-of-grocery-chain-predicts-10-14-inflation-on-food-by-october-

Billionaire grocery CEO predicts 10-14% inflation on food by October 👀

Patrick says

Billionaire grocery CEO predicts 10-14% inflation on food by October 👀

jesus. My buddy who works in construction/landscape showed me some of his quotes. He gets materials below retail but his cost almost doubled on some items like drain pipes, fittings etc. Some of his subcontractors are backing out because they no longer make money on the original deal due to insane inflation.

https://www.westernjournal.com/bidens-america-american-wages-drop-nearly-2-inflation-spirals-control/?utm_source=patrick.net&utm_medium=patrick.net&utm_campaign=patrick.net

Biden's America: American Wages Drop by Nearly 2% as Inflation Spirals Out of Control

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/editorials/voters-are-rightly-blaming-biden-for-inflation

HunterTits says

..because the government doesn't count food (nor rent nor gas/diesel) prices in their bullshit inflation statistics.

Are there other inflation metrics that do include these?

I can imagine them maybe doing something to reduce the impact of price volatility of certain things, like maybe averaging the price over some time window.

https://notthebee.com/article/completely-transitory-nothing-to-worry-about-inflation-forecast-for-the-fourth-quarter-more-than-doubled-by-white-house

https://nltimes.nl/2021/09/01/entrepreneurs-avoiding-negative-interest-opening-multiple-bank-accounts

WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 1, 2021 - 10:00
SHARE THIS:
Entrepreneurs avoiding negative interest by opening multiple bank accounts
Smaller entrepreneurs in the Netherlands are trying to avoid negative interest on savings by opening new accounts with different banks, Financieele Dagblad reported after speaking to Dutch banks. Various banks introduced negative interest rates on larger savings accounts over the past year

At most banks, savings accounts with balances above 100 thousand euros are charged negative interest. This means the account holder pays interest on their savings, instead of earning interest. For someone with 200 thousand euros in the bank, this could mean paying 500 euros in interest at the end of the year. To prevent this, entrepreneurs are now spreading their money over different accounts at different banks.

Oh great, surging inflation and negative interest rates.

All are racing to the bottom.

Intermediate short term $USD demand may take a measure of insignificant inflation "down" .
The finality of this week could pull the rug out from under inflation for the short term we should see
this in Friday's economical data... At the same time Ida is going to need lots and lots of $USDs to even
start recovery considering the power outages, business closures, unemployment etc. etc. etc. etc. etc.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/mkt_breakingnews/producer-prices-see-biggest-annual-surge-on-record-stoking-broader-inflation-concerns_3991094.html?utm_source=patrick.net&utm_medium=patrick.net&utm_campaign=patrick.net

Producer Prices See Biggest Annual Surge on Record, Stoking Broader Inflation Concerns
BY TOM OZIMEK September 10, 2021

Producer prices rose at their highest annual pace on record in August and slightly above expectations, with the newest inflation-related datapoint likely to reinforce broader concerns about rising prices as higher production costs tend to trickle down to consumers.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/mkt_breakingnews/major-supermarket-chain-warns-inflation-is-about-to-impact-more-americans_3993473.html?utm_source=patrick.net&utm_medium=patrick.net&utm_campaign=patrick.net

Major Supermarket Chain Warns Inflation Is About to Impact More Americans
BY JACK PHILLIPS September 12, 2021

An executive of Kroger, one of the largest supermarket chains in the United States, warned grocery prices are about to become even higher this year as inflation sets in.

Patrick says

An executive of Kroger, one of the largest supermarket chains in the United States, warned grocery prices are about to become even higher this year as inflation sets in.

Especially since transportation costs are going up with the price of fuel.

Joe Manchin D-W.V. says (just watched 1h ago on nbcnews meet the press Chuk Todd live OTA) its much more than $3.5T infrastructure bill he thinks about 5.5T now and as its sounds "dynamic" can be 8T+ that includes child care, medical coverage etc. in "infrastructure".
Also there was another news that unions made EV vehicles will carry an additional $5.5k credits!? part of the "infrastructure".
It sounds like they renamed entitlements to "infrastructure".
If Joe Manchin and few others can not stop, its a runaway inflation, perhaps it breaks all previous records.

I don't like to make money off it, but every time they pass one of these gargantuan bills, the stock market shoots up.

Maybe it's just inflation expectations being reflected in stock prices. In which case I'm not really making money off of them.

Inflation hitting food prices??? --- Why Biden will just have to increase the amounts being sent out in food stamps (already hit a new record high when he increased them this year).

---- Yes, politicians really think this way.

Patrick says

don't like to make money off it, but every time they pass one of these gargantuan bills, the stock market shoots up.

I’m betting on the market taking a substantial dip in the next month. This mandate crap is going to cause a lot of uncertainty and instability in both the workforce and companies as they are forced to fire their best talent. Or as their future becomes uncertain as they refuse to comply and fight the order in court. It’s going to hurt the economy either way.

As much as the fools fuck up things, consumers are not changing their ways.
Hood rats will fuck for cash to upgrade their iPhones, wage slaves will descend into the salt mines to pay for endless crap from Amazon and Walmart.
I’m retirement age and my stock allocation is 90%.
Damn the torpedoes, full ramming speed boys!
Each generation is lazier and more self absorbed; people are now paying others to deliver a coffee drink in addition to food and other stuff.
I guess I’m a dinosaur; I can make my own coffee and espresso drinks. I have the knowledge passed on to me.
The more they spend, the more your stocks will rise.

https://www.theepochtimes.com/mkt_breakingnews/inflation-to-rise-faster-than-previously-projected-oecd_4008124.html?utm_source=patrick.net&utm_medium=patrick.net&utm_campaign=patrick.net

Inflation to Rise Faster Than Previously Projected: OECD
BY TOM OZIMEK September 21, 2021

Let's go Brandon!

clambo says

The more they spend, the more your stocks will rise.

Plus, Millennials buy the dip! I would argue that older generations are much more scared of red days because they have actually seen devastating, prolonged downturns in he stock market (e.g. dot com bubble & 2008).....Millies' however wait for blood on the street and buy, buy, buy. And the Covid V shape recovery just emphasized how profitable the buy-the-dip can be.

Bitcoin says

clambo says

The more they spend, the more your stocks will rise.

Plus, Millennials buy the dip! I would argue that older generations are much more scared of red days because they have actually seen devastating, prolonged downturns in he stock market (e.g. dot com bubble & 2008).....Millies' however wait for blood on the street and buy, buy, buy. And the Covid V shape recovery just emphasized how profitable the buy-the-dip can be.

I'd be careful, I don't think the market has recovered as much as you may think, it's a few tech trannies with a lot of weight who contributed to "highs", the majority of stocks, esp. small to mid cap has been trending lower for a while. Tech trannies will correct sharply once rates go up. Generally I'd agree that mild inflation is good for the market but only in strong economies, the xiden admin may be wrecking her fast

https://www.theepochtimes.com/mkt_breakingnews/inflation-way-beyond-transitory-becoming-growing-issue-for-markets-economist-says_4042748.html?utm_source=patrick.net&utm_medium=patrick.net&utm_campaign=patrick.net

Inflation ‘Way Beyond’ Transitory Becoming Growing Issue for Markets, Economist Says
BY TOM OZIMEK October 11, 2021

Inflation that is now “way beyond” the transitory narrative is fast becoming a growing challenge as investors navigate the turbulent waters of sharp wage gains, a tightening labor market, and persistent price pressures, according to Queen’s College President and economist...

mell says

Tech trannies will correct sharply once rates go up

But how much can rates go up? Can the US even afford higher rates? As soon as rates go up, investments/capex is reducing, house prices will decrease, stocks go down etc. I doubt it will happen.....for the next 5-10years its more likely the US will become like Europe. (zero to negative rates on bonds, extra fees on cash in checking/saving accounts, etc.)

I am all for higher rates btw., my RE/investment property is locked in for 30 year loans at ridiculous low rates and I would be a buyer for more RE investment property if rates go higher and prices adjust down.

Blue says

All are racing to the bottom.

Almost all democrats are subscribing AOC junk spending plan. Its a total waste of money that no way it get paid back. Venezuela inflation style will be on. Wait where did AOC ancestors come from!

Blue says

Venezuela inflation style will be on

Nope. We heard it for ten years now. The poor/avg joe's in the US dont even have enough $$$ to cover their monthly bills. If there would be too much money circulating I would be afraid of inflation, but the reality is a lot of the inflation was due to a one-off situation.... covid and subsequent supply chain issues.

Went to the gun store the other day.....not an empty shelf. Bought a bitchin shotgun IWI Tavor Ts12. Even got a discount on the gun (for no reason, i think the owner just liked talking to me). Also, no more limits on ammo....you can buy 10,000 rounds of 9mm if you want. Prices came down, supply is up. 500 rounds for 22 for $40....i take that all day long. Why would there be inflation? exactly...there is none (for guns and ammo). It was short lived because you had high demand (Biden election) and shortages (manufactures closing temporarily due to covid).

Lumber prices came down as well but food prices are up. inflation runs at 5.4% (a tiny beat vs estimate of 5.3%).

There are no signs of inflation getting out of hand....

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10117649/California-town-sees-gas-hit-alarming-7-59-gallon-4-higher-average.html

True panic at the pump! Gas hits $7.59 A GALLON in California town along the Big Sur coast - more than $4 higher than the national average
Gorda residents saw gas hit $7.59 per gallon as the cost of gasoline surges across the US due to increasing oil prices and the continuing supply chain crisis
Premium gasoline there reached an astounding $8.50 per gallon
These shocking prices come as gas costs continue to climb at an alarming rate across the nation, with California seeing the brunt of the spike
As of Thursday, the national average gas price was $3.36 per gallon - a 17-cent increase over September and $1.20 higher than last year, according to AAA
The average cost for gas is the highest it has been across the country in seven years, and the highest it has been in California in nearly a decade