patrick.net

https://www.oftwominds.com/blogsept21/smart-dropping-out9-21.html

Now That the American Dream Is Reserved for the Wealthy, The Smart Crowd Is Opting Out
September 20, 2021

The already-wealthy and their minions are unprepared for the Smart Crowd opting out.

Clueless economists are wringing their hands about the labor shortage without looking at the underlying causes, one of which is painfully obvious: the American economy now only works for the top 10%; the American Dream of turning labor into capital is now reserved for the already-wealthy.

As a result the Smart Crowd is opting out of the conventional workforce's debt-overwork-deadend-treadmill. What clueless economists, pundits and politicos don't dare acknowledge is that credentials and hard work are not a ticket to middle-class security; they're a ticket to impossible workloads demanded by global corporations and high-cost lifestyles anchored by student-loan debt, high rents and out-of-reach real estate.

In other words, credentials and hard work are a deadend. Costs rise faster than your income no matter how hard you work, and corporations are ruthlessly extractive despite the bogus PR of "we value our employees": just as government only values its tax-donkeys after they're gone, corporations only value their employees after they burn out and leave the Corporate America treadmill for good.

Credentials and hard work are a deadend financially and health-wise. The stress of overwork breaks down physical and mental health, slowly and then all at once. Financially, the endless inflation of asset bubbles means younger workers must buy assets at the top of the bubble and hope the bubbles won't pop--but since bubbles always pop, the game of enticing younger workers into buying overvalued stocks, junk bonds and houses is a deadend: rather than building real wealth, gambling in bubbles is ultimately destructive to both wealth and health, because once the phantom wealth generated by a bubble dissipates, those who believed it was all forever are devastated.

The hope that there will be a safe haven when bubbles pop is another aspect of this time it's different, and this belief has led many to drop out of the workforce to speculate their way to wealth. Given this is the greatest bubble of all time (GBOAT), this strategy has been gloriously successful, as the rising tide has raised all boats across virtually every asset class.

But few of the newly minted millionaires have any experience of bubbles popping, and so few are prepared for the end-game. Since bubbles often exhibit symmetry, the skyrocket ascent will likely be matched by a catastrophically steep decline that leaves this time it's different believers in disbelief.

Things are different for the top tier of the already-wealthy. When family money pays for college and the down payment on a house, the lucky offspring have no student-loan debt chains hobbling them and none of the hopeless Red Queen's Race of trying to save up a down payment as housing prices accelerate away from the hapless savers.

Family money offers other cost-free goodies to the fortunate offspring: use of the family vacation home, income from family trust-fund assets, the benefits of family connections (for example, the advantages given to alumni of prestigious schools in terms of admitting their offspring) and valuable class-based memberships, both formal and informal.

Trying to reach the same level as the already-wealthy is a path to burnout and frustration, as the chasm is too wide to leap. Those gambling in the GBOAT casino are winning now, but relying on number 22 coming up again and again is becoming increasingly risky. The speed with which the phantom wealth of debt-asset bubbles can collapse is not widely understood, and the collapse will catch most punters off-guard.

In other words, membership in the already-wealthy based on speculative gains may prove more temporary than expected.

There are many ways to opt out. Here's one account of one strategy: What I learned from living five years in a van (theguardian.com).

The already-wealthy and their minions are unprepared for the Smart Crowd opting out. In their precious naivete, the technocrat class reckons a few more dollars an hour will lure the Smart Crowd back into wage-debt-penury. The failure of their pathetic little carrot to entice the burned out donkeys back to the harness of making billionaires wealthier in exchange for, well, nothing of any real value, will be a great shock for those who believe that since the status quo works great for me, it works great for everybody.

The banquet of consequences hasn't even served the main course but it's on the way from the kitchen.

This has been widely known, and the graph gets dragged out every time matters like executive compensation and wage/hour laws are discussed, yet lots of rank and file GOP members count themselves as among "the elite" and end up supporting policies and repeating talking points that work directly against their own self interests, as designed by oligarchs and the ACTUAL elite class. Ninja ETA: By "minimum wage" I mean ALL worker protections versus oligarchs who would and do exploit them.

The United States left the gold standard in 1971.

That's all that happened.

richwicks says

That's all that happened.

That IS a huge element, but this can't be reduced to a single cause of course. During this time, the US was naturally losing the postwar manufacturing hegemony we enjoyed for decades. No fault divorce and women entering the workforce en masse were also big factors/

It's 1972, not '71.

Nixon went to China.

HunterTits says

Automan Empire says

That IS a huge element, but this can't be reduced to a single cause of course.

Yes it can.

Women entering the workforce was a factor in wages though for sure. Not really a debate. If you flood a market with new labor, wages will drop. I honestly think we're seeing a switch to one worker families with Covid. People have figured out how to live on one income (yes, stimulus helps). People made changes, but so did manufacturing.

My mom just got her first car on her own since my dad passed. I hooked it up with my Toyota guy. Needless to say there were 2 Supras.... at the entire dealership. Not just that model, all models. There were no cars, well 2. St. Charles, IL so good sized town. She got one of the only RAV4's in the region (was a plug in hybrid). My guy orders the cars domestically or from overseas to the dealers. My mom got extremely lucky. There are no cars here in IL at dealerships. It's fucking weird. Tangent over.

No fault divorce started in CA in 1970.

It was also massive regulation of many industries esp. medical care which crushed the old fashioned 20-40 bed charity hospitals and replaced them with massive Corporate Medicare Fraud/Cost Padding Megahospitals, deunionization causing a lack of COLAs for millions, etc.

Massive increases in taxation and fees across the board, one-sided free trade knocked many 20-100 employee businesses out, esp. in manufacturing. Not enough good paying service jobs to replace lost manufacturing jobs starting bigly in the 90s.

As late as the 80s, a few months to a 2 year certification or training program for an unskilled HS grad put them back into Middle Class earnings. I knew a lady who got laid off from AT&T, took 3 programming courses, not a degree, ended up at big insurance company making $30k/year in 1986.

Think about the first part of this century, compounded 2-3% CPI (itself jerryrigged downwards) increases but only 2% or less annual average raises. That was the big thing in the Trump era, consistent 2%+ wage growth seldom seen in most 21st Century years until he was President.

HunterTits says

That was a result of going off the gold standard.

Bretton Woods FIXED the price of Gold to the Dollar at $35/oz. The US, France, and UK went off metal standards domestically, back in the Great Depression.

Right now we're in pure MMT Bankster Rule with no limits.

HunterTits says

WookieMan says

Women entering the workforce was a factor in wages though for sure. Not re

That was a result of going off the gold standard.

You're not wrong. It was a major part.

But if we forced families to go to one income today though, wages would likely soar. People would also have to do actual "work" as well. Corporations have just thrown bodies at labor and just reduced wages, yet output is likely less for 2 low pay jobs versus 1 higher paying in the same field. Basically pay two people $10/hr and get 80% of output from paying one person $18/hr who doesn't want to lose their job.

The top companies in the US have no interest in retaining people. They know they can churn and burn them. They don't want to retain. They don't wan to give raises. They know there's another sucker in the weeds waiting to fill that job vacancy.

Patrick says

What happened in 1971 was that the Democratic party made a deal to betray working people and unions,

Nixon who went off gold standard was a R

Automan Empire says

richwicks says

That's all that happened.

That IS a huge element, but this can't be reduced to a single cause of course. During this time, the US was naturally losing the postwar manufacturing hegemony we enjoyed for decades. No fault divorce and women entering the workforce en masse were also big factors/

When the Federal reserve no longer had to have any reserve requirements, it changed everything. That's what happened. The Federal Reserve could steer any social policy they wanted, by funding it, with unlimited money.

They aren't audited. In 1971, when the gold standard was abandoned, they became our government.

WookieMan says

But if we forced families to go to one income today though, wages would likely soar. People would also have to do actual "work" as well. Corporations have just thrown bodies at labor and just reduced wages, yet output is likely less for 2 low pay jobs versus 1 higher paying in the same field. Basically pay two people $10/hr and get 80% of output from paying one person $18/hr who doesn't want to lose their job.

The top companies in the US have no interest in retaining people. They know they can churn and burn them. They don't want to retain. They don't wan to give raises. They know there's another sucker in the weeds waiting to fill that job vacancy.

Exactly. The churn and burn also incentivizes companies to reduce investment in labor-saving devices and training, which creates jobs.

Didn't we start dropping tarrifs in the early 70s?

Started the fiat printing press

Going off the Gold Standard was not the cause of our decline.

Our decline was the cause of going off gold.

There was another recession in 1970 (thanks federal reserve) and after that the already growing numbers of women in the workforce skyrocketed from 44% participating to 60% participating, many of the new women workers were mothers, so bonus, we get lower wages, and less stable families!

HunterTits says

No, it didn't. FDR did back in...1932 or so.

Bretton Woods was in the late 40s. After the war.

Bretton Woods just established that the US dollar would remain convertible to other nations and that everyone else's currency be tied to the dollar.

Britain, France, and the US stopped basing their currencies on Gold in the 1930s.

The fixed rate for the international fixed exchange of Gold to Dollars ended in the early 1970s. That was Bretton Woods, the post war deal allowing conversion of dollars into gold, mostly to help Europe get back on it's feet. The exchange rate was fixed at $35 to the ounce, but only for Central Bank to Central Bank exchanges:

https://mises.org/library/losing-battle-fix-gold-35
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/568480-after-the-gold-standard-we-got-bigger-government-and-a-smaller-dollar

I don't mind a metallic system, so long as all wages, salaries, and ordinary purchases below $1000 are required to be paid in metallic coins, no banknotes.

If somebody wants to be a sucker and turn in their coins for banknotes, paper or digital, that's their problem. But all employers, private or public, must pay wages no less than every 31 days in the appropriate metal coins, no banknotes allowed by law and no exceptions.


The banks and powerful institutions/VIPS can keep the banknotes ;)

Bd6r says

Patrick says

What happened in 1971 was that the Democratic party made a deal to betray working people and unions,

Nixon who went off gold standard was a R

Sure, Republicans were supposed to screw the working class, and Democrats were supposed to try to stop them.

What happened in 1971 was that Democrats stopped trying, and joined Wall Street in being the oppressors.

They got away with it by dividing people by everything except economic class.

HunterTits says

Bretton Woods just established that the US dollar would remain convertible to other nations and that everyone else's currency be tied to the dollar.

Yes, but it was convertible. You could go to Canada and convert $175 to 5 gold coins and bring them across the border, legally.

Americans WERE allowed to have gold, up to 5 ounces.

"CITIGROUP AND BANK OF ASMODEUS PROMISE TO REDEEM THIS NOTE FOR ONE OUNCE OF GOLD* ON THE FULL FAITH AND CREDIT OF FRASER AND MOYNIHAN, CERTIFIED BY INDEPENDENT AUDITORS LLOYD BLANKFEIN AND NEIL CAVUTO"
*special conditions apply. See 1,395 pages of caveats.

No sir, put them silver dollars in my hand, and away with your bankster trick.

I was recently reading in The Wealth of Nations that The Bank of Amsterdam actually charged people to put their money in the bank, but people went for it because a gold guilder in the bank was worth the full value, while some worn or clipped coins might not be.

And in transactions between merchants, one side would often demand payment as receipts from that bank, and didn't actually want the physical gold, which was less convenient.

The bank had an incredibly good reputation for always guaranteeing that the number of receipts exactly equalled the number of coins in the vault, audited every year. And they always paid anyone in gold who cared to redeem a receipt.

When the French were invading Holland and wanted to weaken the bank, they bought up receipts and redeemed them for gold. The bank paid, war or no war.

An incredible model of integrity.

1971: When the first huge wave of 'enabled' feminists were idiotically broadcasting that Beeyatch Nation could do anything men could do, while holding down the home fort, too, SUPERWOOMINS. The first generation of barren, middle aged executive women disproving the obvious Darwinian point AGAIN. Thanks, Dworkin Golem.

The first chart above, how is productivity measured?

A graph similar to the one in the OP:

It was the year the Old Yankee Elite finally got what they wanted: Labor Discipline and the ascendance of capital over productivity. They'd been trying since just after the Civil War, but failed due to massive political competition and decentralization. By 1971, they took over the government, and got rid of Nixon for ending the Vietnam War and using emergency powers to try to control inflation.

The FRED chart does not take into account the massive increase in healthcare insurance that is paid by the employers.

Nor does the chart take into account any of the additional benefits that the modern workforce receives (stock options, LTC benefits, on-site childcare, etc BUT REALLY STOCK OPTIONS).

The chart also fails to include the massive increase in transfer payments to the poor (section-8 housing, food stamps, EITC, and credits for having children).

The chart also fails to include the reduction in federal income taxes (both for households and corporations) and the reduction in interest rates. --- These two items have made up a massive amount of the gain in stocks and housing.

Today's workers are far better off than the FRED chart implies.

@patrick
It’s not all bad for common folks.There are some things which common man gained on
1) Tattoos
2) Gender identification options
3) Size
4) Social studies count
5) Ways to stick it to white man
6) drug options
7) Free vaccine shots
8) Free houses on roadside
9) Unlimited plastic options from China
10) Money supply
…

Patrick says

East Bay food restaurants entry-level pay in 2022: $20.50

Patrick says

There should be no minimum wage. It hurts the tax payer massively. I side gig at my kids school mowing the lawn for $12/hr. I don't need the money at all. Go in on the weekend, jam out some tunes on the headphones, occasionally have a beer or so and get paid. And yes I know, drinking on school property is frowned upon, whatever. Guess what though. NO ONE WANTS TO WORK. Nice mower too. Fast. And any of you with a riding mower I know you have a beer or cocktail while mowing. That's what mowing is... lol.

WookieMan says

Nice mower too. Fast. And any of you with a riding mower I know you have a beer or cocktail while mowing. That's what mowing is...

Sounds like fun. Reminds me of the time a guy leveled ground for a company parking lot using a Bobcat. That guy got paid for something most men would pay to be allowed to do.

HeadSet says

WookieMan says

Nice mower too. Fast. And any of you with a riding mower I know you have a beer or cocktail while mowing. That's what mowing is...

Sounds like fun. Reminds me of the time a guy leveled ground for a company parking lot using a Bobcat. That guy got paid for something most men would pay to be allowed to do.

Then there is Jeremy Renner who liked to play with heavy equipment w/o proper safety training under his belt...

Hugh_Mongous says

Jeremy Renner

https://pagesix.com/2023/01/04/jeremy-renners-snowplow-accident-911-call-revealed/

Gruesome details of Jeremy Renner’s snowplow accident revealed in 911 call: report

By coincidence 1971 coincides with women entering the workforce in large numbers.

President Richard Nixon announced the severing of links between the dollar and gold as part of a broad economic plan on Aug. 15, 1971.

Answer: Too much currency in circulation. The billionaires all from tech or wall street.

Another version of the image from the OP above, up to 2020: