patrick.net

Predictions of the next 5-10 years?

A lost decade, or full steam ahead due to printing presses?

That was a heck of a comeback - I maintain an overall bullish stance for this week.

Hircus says

Predictions of the next 5-10 years?

A lost decade, or full steam ahead due to printing presses?

"Nobody knows nothing"

djia wound up .29 percent up for the day. Well, at least I panicked while I had the opportunity.

W5000 up 0.45% today, down 8.49% since January 1.
I’m lately just watching WFC which I want to sell.
“Domp eet”

one can still buy mid, small cap and international funds, us large is overvalued.

If your new to an area, probably best if you rent for three to six months to get to know the area well before you buy. As far as house prices, I suspect they will go up for another year two. In many ways it reminds me of the 2004 to 2008 run up beforw the crash. Every cycle is unique, but there are some similarities.

When you do buy, purchase what you can afford. Also, if you can afford an extra payment or two every year, do so.
When I bought 10 years ago that's what I did, and when I found myself unexpectedly unemployed this time last year, I'm glad I had gone about it that way. It saved my bacon.

porkchopexpress says

Do I buy a house now or continue renting?

I'm trying to buy. You can use the R/V ratio to make sure you're getting a good deal. https://www.jasonhartman.com/rv-ratios-good-property-deals-math/?source=patrick.net

I follow the 18.6 year real estate/credit cycle. Late this year/Early 2023 real estate will have it's half cycle low and after that it will continue to go up until 2026/7 and then it will take years before the bottom is in. Sounds crazy but look at history always repeats itself.

https://propertysharemarketeconomics.com/18-point-6-property-share-market-economics/?source=patrick.net

Onvacation says

It's real!

What? You thought I was speaking about bitcoin? C'mon man everyone knows that's just a ponzi scheme.

mich says

I'm trying to buy. You can use the R/V ratio to make sure you're getting a good deal. https://www.jasonhartman.com/rv-ratios-good-property-deals-math/?source=patrick.net

On top of that there, everyone should be more cautious about the massive inflation. Its very likely can not be stoppable with $T spending that we don't have at least in the next few years. It doesn't mean the next R. POTUS will slow down either only will have a different priorities. All middle class and savers are being robbed by corrupt govs.

Hircus says

Predictions of the next 5-10 years?

A lost decade, or full steam ahead due to printing presses?

According to Piper Sandler, we’re in a secular bull market which should last till 2030 or so before we enter a secular bear market (multi-years).

Cyclical bear market can happen within the secular bull market, but the general trend should still be up. I’ll leave this chart from Piper Sandler here.

From a historical perspective, an average 17% correction is expected during the midterm election years.

https://twitter.com/ryandetrick/status/1480754093689876485?s=21&source=patrick.net

Eman says

17% correction is expected

Pricing stuff with the fiat money is complicated nowadays.

Something stinks. I smell the plunge protection team.

"Stocks have never been down so far, so fast in a year"

AmericanKulak says

"Stocks have never been down so far, so fast in a year"

Did you mean in a month? If that’s the case, did you forget March 2020?

FJB says

Something stinks. I smell the plunge protection team.

Yep, they will keep plugging any major correction.

Eman says

AmericanKulak says

"Stocks have never been down so far, so fast in a year"

Did you mean in a month? If that’s the case, did you forget March 2020?

Here is the article I pulled that from:

https://au.news.yahoo.com/market-never-plunged-10-fast-173607529.html?source=patrick.net

Q1 2020 was an unbelievable buying opportunity....they dont come often.....buy the dip in stocks and HODL!

I almost want to make some money and buy more but I guess I’m lazy.

According to the government, I will be around for 20 years if I am average life expectancy.

I’m betting I’m above average (Lake Wobegone).

So, I assume I have 10 years of capital appreciation.
10 year negative returns are rare in the stock market.

I of course hate to see my pile shrink, who doesn’t?
I hope it’s fleeting.

Looks like the PPT busy again on Tuesday.

clambo says

According to the government, I will be around for 20 years if I am average life expectancy.

20 years of useless eater sucking of resources and your social security benefits. DIE, PARASITE, FUCKING DIE ALREADY! Unless, of course, you are one of the Satanist elites and have put in a nice supply of adrenochrome and stem cells.

The Globalist Guv will do everything it can to kill everybody over 60, and then fake the stats to make it look like everybody lives to 90.

How else are they gonna get the votes?

We Are Being Warned That A Horrifying STOCK MARKET CRASH Which Could Wipe Out Trillions Has Now Begun
January 23, 2022 by Michael Snyder
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/we-are-being-warned-that-a-horrifying-stock-market-crash-which-could-wipe-out-trillions-has-now-begun/?source=patrick.net

Not sure what to make of the above, probably just more fear porn, they’ve been banging the drum for stock market collapse since 2008.

Social security payments are fleeting, an illusion.
If you depend on the money to live, you saved no money. You’re almost broke.Your life sucks.

If you saved money in IRAs, SEP-IRA, HSA, variable annuity, and regular accounts, you’ll have some retirement income sufficient to owe the Treasury almost what you get in social security payments.

Of course, Medicare has a lifetime “premium” deducted, starting at $144/month but it is increased as your income increases, so they take $204/month out of my social security payment.

I calculate my income would be higher if I had not contributed to social security and had just bought a variable annuity over the years.

ZIRP increased the price of assets, for sure, but did it increase the price of beef, gas and cars? Supply chain issues (COVID overreaction) and free money to combat the criminal COVID lockdowns and economic destruction caused prices to rise. Will raising interest rates only temper asset price inflation? Will consumables inflation subside on its own, once the madness ends? Already there will not be more bazooka free money, unless the Dems get really desperate around midterms. It is possible that inflation will slow and subside on its own, relieving the Fed of the need to QT and raise rates. Stay tuned.

Wages are also going up, at least entry level jobs are up $3-$5 per hour, and they still can’t find people who want to work

We are already in for a flat to slightly down stock market for the year.
It's past time to tame the housing market.

DooDahMan says

Fed must ‘inflict more losses’ on stock-market investors to tame inflation, says former central banker. ‘Fed will have to shock the market’ if financial conditions don’t tighten: former N.Y. Fed chief Dudley

So weird to read this sort of shit, because I remember when the USSR's "centrally planned economy" was constantly pointed to as an example of a bad idea. And it was a bad idea.

I wonder if the Fed doesn't intend to inflict the most damage possible on people? I'm paranoid enough to think they would. They can do that by raising interest rates to say, 5%, or even 10% - that would kill just about everybody, except the banks that get to borrow as much money as they wish from the Fed at about 0% interest rates.

It would crush the housing market, destroy the stock market, and there would be a rush to buy the dollar. Everybody that has debt without a fixed interest rate would be screwed. It would cause calls on the stockmarket as margins get tighter. Hmm, we'll see.

KgK one says

Stocks reacting by making market down.

They say bottom is near. Feel like another 20% more yo go

SP up about 83 points since the date of the original post.

Up about 2%, - annual rate of about 7%.

The Sky Is Falling Down.

Never assume that a disastrous policy decision is the result of a mistake and not intentional design. Democrats especially use “stupid” policies which sound “well-meaning” to create awful situations that benefit themselves and their people greatly while harming the country. They aren’t that stupid. It’s on purpose.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Up about 2%, - annual rate of about 7%.

Below the rate of inflation?

The W5000 is down 7.92% so far this year.
I don't think that the number above counts dividends.
The stock market doesn't like rising interest rates, but I have my fingers crossed.

For the next 10 years I'm hoping for an average of 7-8% return.

I'm going to convert some of my IRA to a Roth IRA while it's down a bit.

How to proceed:
Sit back and continue to collect dividends.

I’m probably not going to be a very happy camper for a while.

Oh well, I’ve still got my health 🤬

clambo says

I’m probably not going to be a very happy camper for a while.

I thought you were one of those who bought lots of Apple long before the massive run-up. A little bit of a retreat shouldn't be so bad.

Buy select sector stocks only after lots of DD. Biotech for example. Portfolio is near al time high, doing better than it did during the boring fed ramp decade of 2009-2019. Biotechs stocks are cheap right now with ibb and xbi, russell around 52 wk lows

But housing is insulated from price declines because no NINJA and it's different this time.

Headset, my Apple shares are okay but my mutual funds are down 15% from January.
I sure liked it when AAPL was $182/share.
I bought some BABA on a whim but my Shanghai friend assured me it was a good investment.
I neglected to sell my WFC and that was a bad move.

Because I don’t work anymore, I am more obsessed with my investments than before.

This is a double edged sword; when things are going up, I feel great and even generous, but when things go down I worry about my plans not working out.

It’s all in my head because I’m not busy enough.

DooDahMan says

We have made a ton of progress in terms of profitability, setting a target for $5 billion in Adjusted EBITDA in 2024, but the goalposts have changed. Now it’s about free cash flow. We can (and should) get there fast.

So, you're pining for Uber?