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Will Russia invade Ukraine?


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2022 Feb 18, 12:20pm   17,732 views  371 comments

by Bd6r   ➕follow (2)   💰tip   ignore  

Poll

Yes
No
Other answer

My take: Yes

see https://nitter.pussthecat.org/newkc14?source=patrick.net

Evacuation of civilians from Doneck, Gleiwitz-style explosions in Doneck, and a lot of shelling along border.

Less probable is that they just want to increase tensions to get something out of the West (higher oil/gas prices, promises about non-expansion of NATO, etc).

If they do invade, ZH and a lot of skeptics owe Bidet & Co an apology of sorts. Everything goes to crap if invasion happens, as in economy of the world, residual civil liberties, etc, and one can blame Russians for inflation, loss of life quality, etc, instead of real culprit Bidet.

If I'd be conspiratorial, I'd say that Bidet agents in Russia will push for Russian invasion, but on other hand current CIA and military here can only shout pronouns at enemies as seen from Afghanistan debacle.

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196   Patrick   2022 Feb 27, 7:59pm  

More support for the point of view that Putin is a threat to the woke globalists:

https://johnwaters.substack.com/p/bonus-content-diary-extracts?source=patrick.net


Events in Ukraine remind me of my childhood school pal, Par Doherty, who at the age of 12 was to be observed puffing on a cigarette every lunchtime behind the science lab. One day, being unable to comprehend the attractions of sticking pencils of rolled up dried weed wrapped in paper in your mouth and setting them on fire, I asked him why he had started smoking in the first place. ‘My mother was always accusing me of smoking, he responded, ‘so I decided I might as well start.’

And so it is with Vladimir Putin. His action of this morning follows years of provocation of Russia within its own ‘sphere of influence,’ as well as its allies within Ukraine. US encouragement of Kiev’s contemptuous treatment of the Minsk accords, while at the same time stringing Ukraine along about its joining NATO in order to wind up Putin, has finally caused him to kick the chair.

Russia cares about Ukraine; the West does not. The ‘West’ — the US and EU — has several motives: Right now, it is looking urgently for an alibi for its two years of Covid crimes against its own peoples, which it hopes to do by creating a state of permanent emergency. A state of New Cold War with Russia will fit the bill perfectly.

Here is the news: ‘Our side’ are the bad guys. They lie and lie in search of some pretext to create a distraction from their encroaching irrelevance as Russia and China grow and grow. The biggest lie is that Russia is intent upon rebuilding the Soviet Union. Instead, Putin is building a new civilisation, based on Christianity, tradition, nationhood and family — all the things that have been under relentless attack in the West from the Woke psychos and saboteurs unwittingly acting for the Combine and spurred on by the local creeps.
197   Bd6r   2022 Feb 27, 8:24pm  

Patrick says
Putin is building a new civilisation, based on Christianity, tradition, nationhood

That is not correct. He is a head of mafia state, after being part of mob in st petersburg. Does carpetbombing of chechen civilians count as Christianity? Does enriching himself counts as Christianity?
198   Bd6r   2022 Feb 27, 8:26pm  

PeopleUnited says
Doubt it. Most people are simply not brave enough to pull the trigger, especially when they know a trained person is potentially going to be shooting back.

Nearly all East Europeans have been through mandatory service in army, they know how to shoot AK or RPG. Many have cycled through various conflicts (Donbass).
Edit: every house is of course an exaggeration.
199   RWSGFY   2022 Feb 27, 8:27pm  

Bd6r says
Patrick says
Putin is building a new civilisation, based on Christianity, tradition, nationhood

That is crap. He is a head of mafia state, after being part of mob in st petersburg. Does carpetbombing of chechen civilians count as Christianity? Does enriching himself counts as Christianity?


Does worshipping NKVD/KGB and Joseph fucking Stalin counts as Christianity?

And getting abortion in Russia is easier then buying a pack of smokes. Has been since 1917 when Bolsheviks came to power and still is. Christianity my ass.
200   PeopleUnited   2022 Feb 27, 8:59pm  

Bd6r says
PeopleUnited says
Doubt it. Most people are simply not brave enough to pull the trigger, especially when they know a trained person is potentially going to be shooting back.

Nearly all East Europeans have been through mandatory service in army, they know how to shoot AK or RPG. Many have cycled through various conflicts (Donbass).
Edit: every house is of course an exaggeration.


Knowing how to shoot and poking your head out in face of a soldier pointing a weapon back at you are two different things. No doubt some will do so, most however will not.
201   Patrick   2022 Feb 27, 9:00pm  

Bd6r says
Patrick says
Putin is building a new civilisation, based on Christianity, tradition, nationhood

That is not correct. He is a head of mafia state, after being part of mob in st petersburg. Does carpetbombing of chechen civilians count as Christianity? Does enriching himself counts as Christianity?


That's not really a quote of me saying that. That's a quote of John Waters. I agree that Putin is a mafioso, and Russia is a mafia state according to my understanding.

But I think he is definitely placing himself in opposition to the woke globalists, and this scares them, because they know that a lot of people are very tired of wokeness and the expansion of global rule by corporations.
202   Patrick   2022 Feb 27, 9:01pm  

I also think the west can no longer claim moral superiority over Putin.

We also have election fraud, and the imprisonment of political opposition, and the crushing of peaceful protests, as in Ottawa.

I would say that at this point, the US government is entirely run by the corporate mafia, places like Pfizer. Pfizer, Moderna, et al dictated the government response to the virus Fauci created in Wuhan, and they did it for their own profit in a very mafia-like way. Opposition was smeared and silenced. I suspect they had Luc Montagnier killed, though I can't prove it.

I've seen interviews with Eastern Europeans and Iranians in Canada saying that scare-mongering tactics and the crushing of dissent are what they came to Canada to escape, but they found the same things in Canada anyway.
203   Bd6r   2022 Feb 27, 9:07pm  

Patrick says
also think the west can no longer claim moral superiority over Putin.

Moral superiority probably ended with Iraq war 2
204   richwicks   2022 Feb 27, 9:10pm  

Booger says
richwicks says
Russia wouldn't have had an excuse to go to war, if that was just cover to begin the war.


They would have gone to war anyway. They don't need a real reason.


No. War for Russia is expensive and something to be avoided.

It's only the US that concocts reasons for war, since the US government currently is, and has been at war against the US population for decades, and war is a good way to steal from them.
205   Patrick   2022 Feb 27, 9:10pm  

From the same article, this also seems quite plausible to me:


Most immediately, this campaign arose from Washington’s desire to scupper the opening of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Russia and Germany, which would have shifted the balance of power-loyalties in the world in a manner uncongenial to the US. If ties between Germany and Russia were to become strengthened, there would be no need for NATO, or US military bases in Europe, and this might signal the initiation of a nascent (uncapitalised) new world order — Russia, Germany and possibly China — which the US was not, for obvious reasons, so keen on. One of the direct outcomes of this would have been that the petrodollar would cease to be the default world currency. And, by the by, Ukraine, as the Hunter Biden story (suppressed by the corrupt media) tells us, is also a money-laundering operation for the globalist financial elites.


https://johnwaters.substack.com/p/bonus-content-diary-extracts?source=patrick.net
206   Bd6r   2022 Feb 27, 9:14pm  

Patrick says
Most immediately, this campaign arose from Washington’s desire to scupper the opening of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Russia and Germany

Trump closed it
Bidet removed sanctions for it
War started after sanctions removed by globalist team
Something does not compute here
207   Eric Holder   2022 Feb 27, 9:16pm  

Patrick says
Most immediately, this campaign arose from Washington’s desire to scupper the opening of the Nord Stream 2


It was already dead until Biden revived it. The person who wrote that article is a stupid cunt.
208   Maga_Chaos_Monkey   2022 Feb 27, 9:16pm  

Bd6r says
Something does not compute here


Lolz, yeah, Blue Screen Of Death!
209   Patrick   2022 Feb 27, 9:35pm  

Eric Holder says
The person who wrote that article is a stupid cunt.



Nah, he may be wrong on some points, but he's a brilliant cunt for sure:


It is very hard to predict whether or when the people of the West will start to wake up and realise what has been happening to the world they imagine themselves to inhabit. For many years, for sundry reasons, their governments have been working assiduously to transform their societies from democracies to fascist dictatorships properly defined: power cartels of government and corporations with a view to total control. To achieve these ends, they have rotated the political left 180 degrees so that it now, without even knowing it, represents the interests of the greediest and most ruthless forces on earth. While demonising any residual voice of opposition as ‘far right’, these neo-fascist governments are prepared to deal with any bunch of extremists thugs from left or right in order to achieve their primary aim of subjugating and terrorising their populations. Now, they think to present themselves again as champions of democracy.

But the democratic West no longer exists, in anything but name, and in that only because of the continuing corruption of the media, which, at a moment of near-terminal decline, were offered the opportunity to survive a little longer by selling western civilisation down the river, an offer they grabbed with both arms.

It is, after all, a spaghetti western, and our guys are the ones with the manic laughs and the bad moustaches.


https://johnwaters.substack.com/p/bonus-content-diary-extracts?source=patrick.net
210   Patrick   2022 Feb 27, 9:38pm  

He's Irish, so he makes some inside jokes:


In a sense, the Turdeau stuff adds nothing to the mix of what most of us had already experienced of the pathological ugliness of virtually the entirety of the Western political class. He is but a convex mirror held up to Varadkreep and the Taoiseach mehole, both of whom would do the same thing tomorrow if the ordare was issued to them.


Leo Varadkar is president of Ireland (or something like that). Indian father, Irish mother.

Michael Martin (pronounced "mehole" Martin in Irish, but the phonetic spelling no doubt used here to convey that he is an asshole according to the author)

Taoiseach (pronounced tee-shack) is something like president as well. They have two leaders. I don't understand their system.
211   Eric Holder   2022 Feb 27, 9:40pm  

Patrick says
Eric Holder says
The person who wrote that article is a stupid cunt.



Nah, he may be wrong on some points, but he's a brilliant cunt for sure:


My rule of reading is simple: once I encounter a false assertion about something I know for sure, I quit reading and it goes into trash. Because there is no telling about the veracity of the rest of it.
213   AmericanKulak   2022 Feb 27, 10:11pm  

There's a bill to give Ukraine $6B in aid.

The GOP controlled the House from 1994 except two year gap 2009-2010 and then eight years straight, losing only 2019-now. About 20 years of the past 26, the GOP ran the House. For 10 of those years, they also had a Republican President simultaneously, so half the time, a whole decade worth of time.

Never passed $6B for a Southern Wall. Only endless investigatory, white paper, hearings and committees and study groups.

In fact, I distinctly remember them claiming in the late 90s/early 2000s there was no money and that it would be budget busting. Long before we were anywhere near $30T in debt.

Watch them pass the Ukraine Aid bill in days or even hours.

"America Last."
214   Patrick   2022 Feb 27, 10:17pm  

Bd6r says
Patrick says
Most immediately, this campaign arose from Washington’s desire to scupper the opening of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Russia and Germany

Trump closed it
Bidet removed sanctions for it
War started after sanctions removed by globalist team
Something does not compute here


Assume Biden is Russia's puppet. Then things compute better.

Biden brings back pipeline, tells Putin to do whatever he wants in Ukraine.
215   AmericanKulak   2022 Feb 27, 10:24pm  

Or, Russia is partially China's bitch by necessity, and Biden is China's complete Bitch due to bribery and evidence of that bribery the Chinese possess.

China makes Russia a partially dependent state and guarantees itself oil and gas and coal and uranium from Russia in abundance. If Russia shows signs of independence, China suddenly starts cooperating with the West's sanctions until Russia ceases.

Russia gets a guaranteed outlet for energy and cash, along with access to the World's Factory.

China "North Koreanizes" Russia in return for a no-NATO and/or control of Ukraine.

Putin goes along with it because for historical reasons, he feels it's less humilating to be China's half-bitch than owned by Wall Street entirely down to the last nickel mine.

The other great advantage is that China can use it's half-bitch Russia to distract Europeans when it wants Aksai Chin or Taiwan.

JUST LIKE IT USES NORTH KOREA TO PESTER THE US AND JAPAN when it doesn't like what is happening, or needs to harass the US or Japan as a distraction. Always offering to be a go-between, of course.
216   AmericanKulak   2022 Feb 27, 10:38pm  

Eric Holder says

My rule of reading is simple: once I encounter a false assertion about something I know for sure, I quit reading and it goes into trash. Because there is no telling about the veracity of the rest of it.

"Falsus in uno, falsus in omnibus."

Patrick says

It is very hard to predict whether or when the people of the West will start to wake up and realise what has been happening to the world they imagine themselves to inhabit. For many years, for sundry reasons, their governments have been working assiduously to transform their societies from democracies to fascist dictatorships properly defined: power cartels of government and corporations with a view to total control. To achieve these ends, they have rotated the political left 180 degrees so that it now, without even knowing it, represents the interests of the greediest and most ruthless forces on earth. While demonising any residual voice of opposition as ‘far right’, these neo-fascist governments are prepared to deal with any bunch of extremists thugs from left or right in order to achieve their primary aim of subjugating and terrorising their populations. Now, they think to present themselves again as champions of democracy.

But the democratic West no longer exists, in any...

100% Correct.

Trudeau literally froze the bank accounts of peaceful protesters a week ago, with lots of rough handling. Some are in prison, no doubt the persecutors searched the law codes for something to charge them with, or some precedence to charge them with a more common violation based on an obscure case from 100 years ago.

In the USA, the guy who moved Pelosi's lecturn will get 60 days on top of the countless days he's served, plus $5000 fine, and of course his lawyer's fees.

Another 1/6 protester just killed himself.

The two deaths from police on 1/6, and two secret investigations vindicated both officers involved, the details hidden behind locked cabinets and banned from the public.
217   Ceffer   2022 Feb 27, 10:38pm  

I tend to doubt Putin ever took any actual vaccines for Covid, which spells a bit of disinformation trying to discredit his frame of mind. He would have been too savvy about the falsity of the plandemic, much less vaccine dementia affecting him.
It is also likely that Russia has its share of oligarchs who are in on the Ukraine caper, just like the American politicians, so they would have the same motivations to smear any dislodging of the corrupt system in Ukraine. That would mean 'PutinBad' just like 'OrangeManBad'.

I doubt Putin is crazy, and he does not sound the least bit crazy when he speaks, even in translation. A true crazy person would not be able to disguise it. The 'crazy' cipher also spells a source eager to smear and is an overwrought accusation. I remember when Trump announced he would run for Pres, the press immediately saddled him with the 'crazy' moniker over and over. I had never payed much attention to Trump, but the crazy accusations are one of the first things I remember about the press not passing the smell test.

As for the nuclear trigger, all the usual corrupt characters latch on to ANY fear totem that allows room for manipulating the populace, even if it is adventitious.

I also don't see adopting a 'negotiating posture' is a sign of losing. Rather, it is admitted that the invasion has distinct goals that fall far short of entirely conquering Ukraine under the boot. I think that having a combination of ongoing military threat is simply the best way to HAVE a negotiating posture, since historically, Putin has noted that the West never negotiated in good faith without some kind of threat.
218   AmericanKulak   2022 Feb 27, 10:40pm  

Only a moron negotiates in good faith without some kind of threat.

Y'know, like John Kerry.
219   Patrick   2022 Feb 28, 12:03am  

Ceffer says
I doubt Putin is crazy, and he does not sound the least bit crazy when he speaks, even in translation.


I agree. Putin has all his marbles, and started with more than Biden to begin with. Biden is clearly missing a few.

Of course Putin is a thug and will have people killed for political reasons, but I think that's par for the course as leader of Russia. They were all like that.
220   AmericanKulak   2022 Feb 28, 12:22am  

China thinks it's the natural world order for all to present themselves and trembling obey the Vermillion Throne of the Middle Kingdom, the arbiter between Earth and the Heavens.

In history, China usually has been #1 until the 1600-1700s in Tech, Population, Wealth, Development, etc.

They want that #1 status back. Europe and Russia bothered with each other leaves them free in operate against India in the Himalayas and Taiwan and Japan.

China would love another Cold War, since neither side could afford to piss off China. Russia for the oil customer and products, The West for the products where almost everything is outsourced to.

Amazon and Walmart would collapse in weeks without Chinese products to sell, most of their inventory. And we don't have the machines to make the machines, sure, we make the missile guidance system at home, but everything from the fan that cools that CPU to the board it sits on and the plastic housing for it, all comes from either China or Taiwan. We don't have the people or machinery to restore the manufacturing, we're back to 1880 where we have to make the machine that makes the machine that makes the machine that can make the products and nobody remembers how to build or organize the factories that make them. We sold it all to China in the 90s and 2000s. It's all subcontracted out to various firms in China. All the US Execs do is specify the dimensions and provide the blueprints, make sure the samples are up to design specs. Few of them know anything about actually making it.

Thanks, Outsourcing!
\
222   Ceffer   2022 Feb 28, 1:02am  

AmericanKulak says
China would love another Cold War, since neither side could afford to piss off China. Russia for the oil customer and products, The West for the products where almost everything is outsourced to.

Illuminati Card Game China Card:

223   AmericanKulak   2022 Feb 28, 5:09am  

Must watch: Ukrainian MP says the Quiet Part out loud to US Media:

"We not only fight for Ukraine, but for this New World Order."
https://nitter.pussthecat.org/SavingAmerica4U/status/1498275582819319811?source=patrick.net#m
224   komputodo   2022 Feb 28, 6:01am  

Booger says
They would have gone to war anyway. They don't need a real reason

Like protecting our freedoms by stopping communism in vietnam or Iraq's weapons of mass destruction or knocking down your own twin towers?
225   Tenpoundbass   2022 Feb 28, 6:14am  

Patrick says
Of course Putin is a thug and will have people killed for political reasons, but I think that's par for the course as leader of Russia.


You're just saying that Putin is a maniac and a thug that will kill people for his political jollies, ONLY because OUR media has brainwashed you to believe that without any evidence what so ever. And to deflect and project, what the sickos in our State department, have been doing for years and years. We had our reasons to mother of all bomb ISIS, and we all cheered like it was a proud moment. When has Putin released such a diabolical weapon on anyone?
Nothing about this so called invasion looks like a War declaration from one of the top three super powers in the world. It barely has the optics of a Civil skirmish between two waring Canadian biker gangs.
Then to top that off, we're only allowed to hear our Western take on the events. RT and all Russian State media has been banned and silenced on YouTube and other outlets, so now the we're at the mercy of OUR Propaganda apparatus to mansplain the situation to us, absence of any Russian perspective of the events.

But I'll stick with the hard reality of the lack of evidence, still for the last week, I personally have not seen one single evidence that there is a large scale invasion from Russia, he might be stirring the pot, and backing the separatists with hardware, but then again so are we. This is just a good old fashioned Proxy war, but this time, the media is trying to brainwash us all into believing that it is a full Russian assault with Putin leading the charge on rusty tank with Z spray painted on it.
227   AmericanKulak   2022 Feb 28, 6:50am  

Tenpoundbass says
But I'll stick with the hard reality of the lack of evidence, still for the last week, I personally have not seen one single evidence that there is a large scale invasion from Russia, he might be stirring the pot, and backing the separatists with hardware, but then again so are we. This is just a good old fashioned Proxy war, but this time, the media is trying to brainwash us all into believing that it is a full Russian assault with Putin leading the charge on rusty tank with Z spray painted on it.


Yep. 5000 Russian Dead?

That's more than D-Day on all beaches. It's more deaths than the US had during the first two months of the Tet Offensive. It's half the Allied deaths in the two week battle of El-Alamein between the Brits and Rommel that involved 100k's of troops and 1000s of tanks and vehicles and arty in the open desert.

I don't buy it.

I've had cams on all day from Kiev, which is supposedly surrounded by Russians at the same time the Russians are stopped cold just over the border. Once or twice every half hour, I hear one or two booms. If the fighting was the scale of Tet, which covered the house-to-house fighting at Hue City, attacks on US Embassy, ARVN HQs in Saigon, etc. we'd be hearing booms several times a minute at least.

This whole thing reeks of BS from top to bottom.
228   Tenpoundbass   2022 Feb 28, 6:52am  

AmericanKulak says
Yep. 5000 Russian Dead?


If there were 5,000 dead, where's the video of 50,000 soldiers being assaulted by the heroic Ukrainians? Western media would have loved that footage, it would be Pulitzer material.
229   Eric Holder   2022 Feb 28, 9:20am  

So, will it or will it not? The suspense is killing me.
230   Bd6r   2022 Feb 28, 9:52am  

Eric Holder says
So, will it or will it not? The suspense is killing me.

According to a lot of patnetters, russians will never invade. But if they did, ukrsine will be finished in 96 hours.
231   Patrick   2022 Feb 28, 10:27am  

Bd6r says
Patrick says
Putin is building a new civilisation, based on Christianity, tradition, nationhood

That is not correct. He is a head of mafia state, after being part of mob in st petersburg. Does carpetbombing of chechen civilians count as Christianity? Does enriching himself counts as Christianity?





Well, I'm not much of a Christian, but those things sound good to me.

So now the question is whether out own government is more or less of a mafia than Russia's government. I think you could make a strong argument that America is worse in many ways, particularly in foreign policy.
232   Bd6r   2022 Feb 28, 10:37am  

Note by Al-Nusra Chechens:

Ельцин покрыл позором русскую армию в Чечне. Путин опозорил русскую армию в Украине. Китай удовлетворен увиденным. Желтые человечки готовятся осваивать новые территории

Translation:

Yeltsin ashamed the Russian army in Chechnya. Putin has dishonored the Russian army in Ukraine. China is satisfied with what he sees. Yellow men are preparing to explore new territories
233   Bd6r   2022 Feb 28, 10:43am  

AmericanKulak says
5000 Russian Dead?

Of course, an overestimate and propaganda, as is normal in war. Sergeant Petrenko saw Russians shooting 200 children and women in hospital and singlehandedly killed 500 occupiers with his AK-47, before dying as a hero.

However, the order of magnitude for Russian dead is correct. May be 2000 or 3000, but it is a lot still. It is comparable to losses in Armenia-Azerbaijan war, where in 1.5 months about 2500 were killed from each side. Ukrainian conflict is an order of magnitude larger, same weapons are used, so a few thousand Russian dead make sense.
234   Eric Holder   2022 Feb 28, 10:51am  

Bd6r says
AmericanKulak says
5000 Russian Dead?

Of course, an overestimate and propaganda, as is normal in war. Sergeant Petrenko saw Russians shooting 200 children and women in hospital and singlehandedly killed 500 occupiers with his AK-47, before dying as a hero.

However, the order of magnitude for Russian dead is correct. May be 2000 or 3000, but it is a lot still. It is comparable to losses in Armenia-Azerbaijan war, where in 1.5 months about 2500 were killed from each side. Ukrainian conflict is an order of magnitude larger, same weapons are used, so a few thousand Russian dead make sense.


They lost ~1000 in one day during the first Chechen war and then their enemy did not have anywhere near the amount of heavy stuff the Ukies have. So there is nothing unusual about losing couple of thou in several days for the Russian army. Hell, they managed to lose 300 fuckers in two hours when they decided to attack US Army Rangers at some refinery in 2017.
235   richwicks   2022 Feb 28, 11:21am  

Patrick says
Kind of hard to read any news at all then.

https://off-guardian.org/2022/02/27/7-fake-news-stories-coming-out-of-ukraine/?source=patrick.net


It's not news, it's propaganda.

I spent years trying reading the "news" wondering to myself "well, they can't be INTENTIONALLY lying, otherwise they'd lose their entire readership" - only to realize I was their readership. Our news media is propaganda, and it's trolling propaganda. Go read the comments to this video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h2aqF974GMo&source=patrick.net

It's just people calling them out on their bullshit. That's who bothers to pay attention to our news media at this point. That's the readership.

And if you cannot comment on it, or you're censored by the "news" media, you're reading propaganda. You work in the same dumb ass field that I do, how many times have you read a news article about an area YOU were personally involved in only to realize it was a fluff piece OR it was just outright bullshit? That's EVERYTHING, not just what we personally know about.

I think that it's a complete waste of time to pay attention to "authoritative sources", and even independent ones make lots of errors, but at least (generally) they aren't just lying about what they are reporting on - they're just making genuine mistakes.

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