patrick.net

zzyzzx says

porkchopexpress says

So, I'm stuck between stretching ourselves a bit to buy a $1.4M home in Nashville area,

Why is the alternative a 1.4M home in TN?
If that's what houses cost there now I wouldn't move.

Did I miss something here? No way local fundamentals support that type of price for an average house in Nashville.

I know. Prices have absolutely soared because of sheer demand for that particular area. People are flooding TN, TX and FL because of the economic freedom and politics, and the rich are specifically hitting Franklin/Brentwood area because the schools are some of the best in the country.

porkchopexpress says

I know. Prices have absolutely soared because of sheer demand for that particular area. People are flooding TN, TX and FL because of the economic freedom and politics, and the rich are specifically hitting Franklin/Brentwood area because the schools are some of the best in the country.

Then wait for the housing bubble to pop before leaving.

zzyzzx says

porkchopexpress says

I know. Prices have absolutely soared because of sheer demand for that particular area. People are flooding TN, TX and FL because of the economic freedom and politics, and the rich are specifically hitting Franklin/Brentwood area because the schools are some of the best in the country.

Then wait for the housing bubble to pop before leaving.

It's a good plan. I would just need to figure out how to navigate California's vaccine mandate for my sons to attend public school. That's the big sticking point.

Save_Ukraine says

WOW. I am sry. My house bought in 2020 appreciated by 400K already. Imagine the equity gain if you'd bought in 2011 in the greater SD area.

I don't consider bubbles investments. And I adjust for inflation.

Did you sell and collect the $400k?

When will you admit you're Logan?

Save_Ukraine says

Are you planning to rent until you die? Rents ever increase, a mortgage stays the same or goes down if you refinance. Meanwhile your house value went through the moon in the last 14 years. Your mortgage on that 2011 house price would be a joke compared to your rent in 2022. I am sry man. Thats a really sad story.

As long as it's cheaper. My rent was $1375 back then, and it's $1600 now. If I bought would have been around $1900 plus maintenance.

Are you jealous that I've saved money and been able to enjoy my life without committing to a huge debt? Or maybe stories like mine are bad for your bottom line... Logan.

porkchopexpress says

Agreed but we don’t want rural. We like action.

I haven't read all the comments yet, but I'd give going rural a thought. Don't dismiss it out of the gate. Sounds like you have some moving parts with the kids ages and your wife wanting something specific.

If you can get social connections in a new community that's small you won't regret it. We have 2,200 people roughly and in 7 years and basically have vast resources (connections and on boards) to run the town and school district in essence. Everyone knows who we are. We have 4-5 restaurants and walk in and everyone knows us. They know what I want to drink when I walk in #Cheers

The music thing seems like a tough box to check. If it's super important then you gotta do what you have to, but I wouldn't let that be a deciding factor. As a drummer there are a ton of resources out there for self teaching/learning. The kids just have to put in the work. If they love it enough they will. If they don't love it they won't and it's not worth over spending potentially hundreds of thousands for a hobby that likely won't result in much. No different than sports where a tiny fraction of 1% even can make decent income with it.

Action is what you make it and who you know. I love not seeing fucking Chilis, BWW, McDonalds, etc. Urban and suburban America has become so bland and commercial. Plus you can get land, get toys (ATV's, golf carts, UTV's, etc.) and have a blast. Get a camper and drive 30 minutes to a cool place. The money you save going rural can create the action. Get a $500k house and buy a $200-300k boat on a lake in TN as a "cabin" so to speak.

TL:DR - Don't handcuff yourself with an expensive house. Make your own fun and friends and the action will happen.

porkchopexpress says

I believe so. Newsom said all schools including private.

Yes, but I'm not sure about the school my daughter attends. East El Cajon, I'm sure you know which one. I emailed the VP about it late last year, never got a response, and he's responded to every other email I've sent. I don't think he wants a written record of what the schools doing.

I still live in California. No plans to move in the next three years. My kids will never be vaxxed with the mRNA shit. We are a Pureblood family and we will stay that way.

My oldest daughter is 14 almost 15. I figure we have a year or so before any existing mandates get enforced on her. But my philosophy with these mandates has always been to stall for time. The more time that goes by, the more likely it is that the mandates:
1)will be declared illegal by a judge
2)will be dropped as an adherence to Narrative 2.0 and the Democrats wanting to win future elections
3)will cease as people recoil in HORROR to the increasingly bad prognosis of the vaxxed.

You need to stall for time, bro. And visit some other places! I have a good friend living in a suburb of Nashville and he says the prices are crazy. There’s land all around, just a CURRENT scarcity of dwellings, given all the rich California transplants relocating to the suddenly popular area. Given time, the prices will fall again as thousands more houses get built. It’s a bad time to buy in Nashville.

My advice is to do vacations in other possible locations. Check out South Carolina or Georgia. Or Florida of course. There are some absolutely beautiful places in Carolina to live. And my seventeen year friends who just moved to Georgia are loving their new home and new life. Their kids are happy and going to public school. The community is welcoming. Life is good.

I firmly believe the vax is long term TERRIBLE for people. My 40 year old friend took one J&J and has been totally disabled for the past five months with no improvement. You can NOT unvax yourself! She sure wishes that was possible.

Also the vax DOES CHANGE YOUR DNA, possibly for your gonads as well! It’s life altering and family altering. You become a GMO organism which perennially produces toxic spike proteins. Your immune system is compromised and due to OAS can’t develop immunity to new viruses and variants! And then there’s the 300% rise in cancers among the vaxxed. That isn’t an accident and it’s going to happen more often in the future.

Finally, check out this article:
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/03/new-orange-county-athletes-plan-participate-sports-year-must-electrocardiogram-test/?source=patrick.net

So the Orange County health authorities are worried enough about the heart health of teenagers that they’re requiring an ECG of all student athletes? I’m not opposed to the health order which could catch some congenital cardiac issues. I had a friend in high school who died suddenly of that, so it’s real. But the TIMING is absolutely indicative of a larger problem.

Don’t vax your kids. Stall for time. Ignore the wife’s temper tantrums. She might not be around much longer anyway.

porkchopexpress says

What would you guys do?

Nashville sounds like a good choice for a Californian who wants to leave.

If you did not live in Nashville before California, how about renting in that area for a while, like at least a year or two, in the beginning of your relocation to assimilate yourselves into local knowledge, get accustomed to the region, different communities, neighborhoods and schools, instead of parachuting in from California without the benefit of your boots on the ground perspective?

B.A.C.A.H. says

If you did not live in Nashville before California, how about renting in that area for a while, like at least a year or two, in the beginning of your relocation to assimilate yourselves into local knowledge, get accustomed to the region, different communities, neighborhoods and schools, instead of parachuting in from California without the benefit of your boots on the ground perspective?

Generally speaking a good idea, but with the eviction moratorium available apartments are scarce a well.
Plus after living in a house it's difficult to go to an apartment, even if it's the smart thing to do (would need storage for all the "house" stuff in the new place a well).

Shaman says

But my philosophy with these mandates has always been to stall for time. The more time that goes by, the more likely it is that the mandates:
1)will be declared illegal by a judge
2)will be dropped as an adherence to Narrative 2.0 and the Democrats wanting to win future elections
3)will cease as people recoil in HORROR to the increasingly bad prognosis of the vaxxed.

Already worked for federal workers.

zzyzzx says

Shaman says

But my philosophy with these mandates has always been to stall for time. The more time that goes by, the more likely it is that the mandates:
1)will be declared illegal by a judge
2)will be dropped as an adherence to Narrative 2.0 and the Democrats wanting to win future elections
3)will cease as people recoil in HORROR to the increasingly bad prognosis of the vaxxed.

Already worked for federal workers.

There is no mandate for federal workers any more?

WineHorror1 says

zzyzzx says

Shaman says

But my philosophy with these mandates has always been to stall for time. The more time that goes by, the more likely it is that the mandates:
1)will be declared illegal by a judge
2)will be dropped as an adherence to Narrative 2.0 and the Democrats wanting to win future elections
3)will cease as people recoil in HORROR to the increasingly bad prognosis of the vaxxed.

Already worked for federal workers.

There is no mandate for federal workers any more?

GOOOOD MOOOOOORNING!

porkchopexpress says

RWSGFY says

File for a religious exemption. I think it's the best path forward.

I've thought about that. I did it for my new job and avoided the jab, but I'm not sure how CA schools would take an exemption, but it's definitely an option.

Are private schools also subject to this new requirement? Or is it only the public schools?

As was already stated, their all "subject". But as I've mentioned, enforcement is more up in the air than people assume, at least at my school.

WookieMan says

TL:DR - Don't handcuff yourself with an expensive house. Make your own fun and friends and the action will happen.

It's good advice, thank you. When I say we don't prefer rural, it means having convenient access to amenities like a nice gym (for me), bars and live music (for my wife and I), music community for my kids, and a good selection of shopping including higher end grocery items.

I realize we can't have it all, but it's always trying to prioritize what's most important and then making trade-offs. One thing I do know is we don't want to drive 20 minutes or more to the things I mentioned above...we'd rather take a worse house to have more convenience and access to amenities (within reason).

I understand the "Cheers" feeling because we have that here in our current community, and it's a smallish town outside of San Diego. So, you're completely right that all it takes is frequenting some of the same local places, investing the time meeting people there, and boom...you have a network of friends and things to do. We hope to follow that same formula no matter where we end up.

GreaterNYCDude says

Are private schools also subject to this new requirement? Or is it only the public schools?

I've heard it's supposed to apply to private schools as well, but who knows what kind of court battles will ensue this Fall when the rubber hits the road. Problem is, I can't wait and find out the outcome because then we're stuck with it...it's hard to just up and move in a month's time since I'll be stuck in a lease, etc.

B.A.C.A.H. says

porkchopexpress says

What would you guys do?

Nashville sounds like a good choice for a Californian who wants to leave.

If you did not live in Nashville before California, how about renting in that area for a while, like at least a year or two, in the beginning of your relocation to assimilate yourselves into local knowledge, get accustomed to the region, different communities, neighborhoods and schools, instead of parachuting in from California without the benefit of your boots on the ground perspective?

I 1000000% agree with renting, but my wife is so fucking adamant against it because we've only rented since we've been married. She's so tired of renting and thinks we'll continue to get priced out as time goes by and it will only get worse. Of course I've been telling her that there's likely to be a crash at some point, but it just hasn't happened so she thinks it'll never happen. Plus, this area of Nashville is crazy hot with people leaving blue states and moving in, so maybe she's right and it won't really drop that much or at all. It's all a gamble to a point.

Having said all that, I may end up dropping the hammer and requiring we rent a place and just deal with her tantrum. At the end of the day, I make the money and she lives in her bubble world as a housewife and mother.

porkchopexpress says

I've heard it's supposed to apply to private schools as well, but who knows what kind of court battles will ensue this Fall when the rubber hits the road. Problem is, I can't wait and find out the outcome because then we're stuck with it...it's hard to just up and move in a month's time since I'll be stuck in a lease, etc.

I'd say to wait as long as you can before pulling the trigger. Sounds like you have an out to the shot, though not your ideal one. But overpaying for a house is still better than potential life-long health issues for your kids right?

Shaman says

Don’t vax your kids. Stall for time. Ignore the wife’s temper tantrums. She might not be around much longer anyway.

Great post and great advice. Thanks.

NuttBoxer says

porkchopexpress says

I've heard it's supposed to apply to private schools as well, but who knows what kind of court battles will ensue this Fall when the rubber hits the road. Problem is, I can't wait and find out the outcome because then we're stuck with it...it's hard to just up and move in a month's time since I'll be stuck in a lease, etc.

I'd say to wait as long as you can before pulling the trigger. Sounds like you have an out to the shot, though not your ideal one. But overpaying for a house is still better than potential life-long health issues for your kids right?

Exactly. I can control the situation of leaving CA this Summer when our lease comes up and just bail. If I renew because we can't find a place, I'm rolling the dice that I can get my kids out of the shot somehow. Is there a good chance of that? Sure...but this state is turning into a Left-wing tyrannical nightmare, so I don't discount what they're capable of and I don't want to sit around and see.

I"m in a pretty similar situation as the OP. The wife just refuses to admit reality and is clinging to some hope that the gene therapy shots wont be enforced. My kids are still in elementary and no way in hell will they be getting them, so homeschooling them would be the only option, but I work 60 hours a week and don't have the time or mental energy to home school. Wife recently started working after we put them in private school. We bought a small house in Idaho already, that we are renting out right now because she refuses to leave her stupid social circle and immediate family. If we sold and got out she would never have to work again but that doesn't sway her.

porkchopexpress says

B.A.C.A.H. says

porkchopexpress says

What would you guys do?

Nashville sounds like a good choice for a Californian who wants to leave.

If you did not live in Nashville before California, how about renting in that area for a while, like at least a year or two, in the beginning of your relocation to assimilate yourselves into local knowledge, get accustomed to the region, different communities, neighborhoods and schools, instead of parachuting in from California without the benefit of your boots on the ground perspective?

I 1000000% agree with renting, but my wife is so fucking adamant against it because we've only rented since we've been married. She's so tired of renting and thinks we'll continue to get priced out as time goes by and it will only get worse. Of course I've been telling her that there's likely to be a crash at some point, ...

Id try to hold out and rent for another year or so until the economy really takes a shit in and maybe prices drop. But its the Californian exodus that is creating the inflated prices in these select states, and I'm not sure that will stop even if the economy crashes.

GreaterNYCDude says

porkchopexpress says

RWSGFY says

File for a religious exemption. I think it's the best path forward.

I've thought about that. I did it for my new job and avoided the jab, but I'm not sure how CA schools would take an exemption, but it's definitely an option.

Are private schools also subject to this new requirement? Or is it only the public schools?

Private schools are also subject to and may in fact be more demanding to avoid trouble with the government.

Renting as part of escaping California…

If Socal is anything like silicon valley, the monthly rent payment doesn't seem so painful because it's likely only 1/2 of what the mortgage payment would be if you bought now. My cursory research reveals that "cheap rent" is not likely in other parts of the country. Since you can't change the past (benefits of owning when the prices are zooming) you should frame your plans using expectations of the future, not reality of the past.

If you jettison many of your household possessions (furniture and a bunch of stuff accumulated over the years), the move will be easier. The second move will be easier still because of less stuff, things still in boxes, and a local move.

Although a high school might be very highly rated, it might not be great for your kids. Specific school programs, the friends they make, and the vibe of a school are more important than the school's reputation or goal-seeking on arbitrary benchmarks. In today's woke college admissions, going to a highly-rated school means your kids will be penalized in the college admissions process.

Given the Zillow search you specified above, it looks like Brentwood is a "fortress" area, as we call it in the Bay Area. These are places where there are lifelong owners who paid off the mortgage decades ago and won't move until it's feet-first in an ambulance. Others are dual-income professional couples who just bought and will hold on tenaciously. A third category is the already wealthy who can easily afford to stay in a downturn. In addition to not being forced out by a crash, the 2nd and 3rd category will actively buy is the prices dip by even 20%. The last category will buy with cash if interest rates go year 1980 on us.

zzyzzx says

with the eviction moratorium available apartments are scarce a well.
Plus after living in a house it's difficult to go to an apartment

I did not suggest renting an apartment.

A big city area like Nashville will have some SFH for rent. And I betcha, no matter how expensive, less expensive than a comparable rental SFH in San Diego.

RedStar says

I"m in a pretty similar situation as the OP. The wife just refuses to admit reality and is clinging to some hope that the gene therapy shots wont be enforced. My kids are still in elementary and no way in hell will they be getting them, so homeschooling them would be the only option, but I work 60 hours a week and don't have the time or mental energy to home school. Wife recently started working after we put them in private school. We bought a small house in Idaho already, that we are renting out right now because she refuses to leave her stupid social circle and immediate family. If we sold and got out she would never have to work again but that doesn't sway her.

Thanks for sharing. I hate being in this situation with the fucking vaccine mandate. It used to be we just had to deal with rental leases, purchase agreements, leaving family and friends, etc. Now add medical tyranny to the list.

RedStar says

Id try to hold out and rent for another year or so until the economy really takes a shit in and maybe prices drop. But its the Californian exodus that is creating the inflated prices in these select states, and I'm not sure that will stop even if the economy crashes.

Exactly! People have to flock somewhere and there's a lot of rich people who want such a small, desirable place to live. Fucking sucks that we couldn't have moved there 5 years ago. Oh well.

Eric Holder says

WineHorror1 says

zzyzzx says

Shaman says

But my philosophy with these mandates has always been to stall for time. The more time that goes by, the more likely it is that the mandates:
1)will be declared illegal by a judge
2)will be dropped as an adherence to Narrative 2.0 and the Democrats wanting to win future elections
3)will cease as people recoil in HORROR to the increasingly bad prognosis of the vaxxed.

Already worked for federal workers.

There is no mandate for federal workers any more?

GOOOOD MOOOOOORNING!

Ok, was that some kind of instigation? This was the first I heard of it. I heard that the Postal service was exempt and the white house staff etc. but not a blanket end of mandates for the entire federal government.

SunnyvaleCA says

Although a high school might be very highly rated, it might not be great for your kids. Specific school programs, the friends they make, and the vibe of a school are more important than the school's reputation or goal-seeking on arbitrary benchmarks. In today's woke college admissions, going to a highly-rated school means your kids will be penalized in the college admissions process.

We're not picking this high school simply because of its rating, but because of its strong music programs which both of my sons are HUGE into. It's their social circle.

SunnyvaleCA says

Given the Zillow search you specified above, it looks like Brentwood is a "fortress" area, as we call it in the Bay Area. These are places where there are lifelong owners who paid off the mortgage decades ago and won't move until it's feet-first in an ambulance. Others are dual-income professional couples who just bought and will hold on tenaciously. A third category is the already wealthy who can easily afford to stay in a downturn. In addition to not being forced out by a crash, the 2nd and 3rd category will actively buy is the prices dip by even 20%. The last category will buy with cash if interest rates go year 1980 on us.

I know. This is a reason why my wife thinks we should just buy something in that area and hold on for dear life, which does make sense. I just want to put a stake in the ground somewhere and not have to rent again, buy and sell again, and just live life in the place we want to be, which we believe to be this area. So, perhaps it makes sense to just bite the bullet and buy some over-priced place that we know we could stay in for 10 years.

porkchopexpress says

RedStar says

Id try to hold out and rent for another year or so until the economy really takes a shit in and maybe prices drop. But its the Californian exodus that is creating the inflated prices in these select states, and I'm not sure that will stop even if the economy crashes.

Exactly! People have to flock somewhere and there's a lot of rich people who want such a small, desirable place to live. Fucking sucks that we couldn't have moved there 5 years ago. Oh well.

Have you looked into Eastern Idaho? Its still affordable but cold. We bought in Twin Falls and the current renters are waiting for their home to be built this summer.

Have you tried living outside California during the summer? The heat, humidity, and the never-ending swarm of insects might be worth the problems of California. In the last two years, I've vacationed (scouted) Florida in January. Weather was great! Very few bugs! My feeling is that I need to visit in June through September — I'll probably never want to go back again!

SunnyvaleCA says

Have you tried living outside California during the summer? The heat, humidity, and the never-ending swarm of insects might be worth the problems of California. In the last two years, I've vacationed (scouted) Florida in January. Weather was great! Very few bugs! My feeling is that I need to visit in June through September — I'll probably never want to go back again!

The bad outweighed the good hear at least five years ago. Those of us who stay only do so because of family. After living in Phoenix, Florida never seems too hot. Their rainy season is mid-day like every day during the summer. I have family there, never noticed the bugs to be a huge issue.

porkchopexpress says

I make the money and she lives in her bubble world as a housewife and mother.

Then wait before buying. Even if its just six to twelve months to know the lay of the land. I know a guy came out east for a job, similar situation... he was breadwinner, etc., wife started missing Cali after about six months and wanted to move back west... It happens.

Besides you've implied your kids are high school aged. 4 years +/- and schools will no longer be a major determining factor.

Good luck with this one.

Prolly not a good idea to go the roach clusters of monied ex pat Californians that are 'popular' like Austin or Nashville. It's still a big country, and one should always explore boots on the ground with a rental before jumping into the outer space of conjecture. A live appearance in some places can be pretty sobering vs. the wishful thinking fantasy.

When we took our vacation to Washington State last spring, we traveled through a lot of open country. When you get the Bend, it's like California-Junior, suddenly rushed, crowded, jaggy, due to all the Californians that have moved there and run up the prices and downgraded the laid back culture. I was surprised at how very nice the people were outside of Bend, though, really nice. They still pump your gas for you up there.

Yeah, I felt like a rentier magnate out there, incredibly Covid depressed towns and communities everywhere along the routes, albeit magnificent and beautiful in many areas.

SunnyvaleCA says

Have you tried living outside California during the summer? The heat, humidity, and the never-ending swarm of insects might be worth the problems of California. In the last two years, I've vacationed (scouted) Florida in January. Weather was great! Very few bugs! My feeling is that I need to visit in June through September — I'll probably never want to go back again!

I've lived in the PNW, East Coast and Rocky Mountain states. I've visited Atlanta, Charlotte and Orland in August before, so I know what it's like. Nashville won't be quite as bad, but still hot and humid of course but for a shorter period of time than locations farther south. I know there will be more bugs and probably allergies, but those things pale in comparison with the authoritarianism happening in CA.

Look, I love CA weather and beauty. Absolutely love it. I would never leave if not for how the Left is destroying this state and infringing on human rights. I can deal with Left wingers around me being stupid, but it severely crosses a line when they want to force unnecessary experimental shots (KNOWN TO BE HIGH RISK) into our bodies without any science or logic to back it up.

RedStar says

Have you looked into Eastern Idaho? Its still affordable but cold. We bought in Twin Falls and the current renters are waiting for their home to be built this summer.

Too cold, snowy and remote. Not our jam even though I like Idaho as a state.

SunnyvaleCA says

Have you tried living outside California during the summer? The heat, humidity, and the never-ending swarm of insects might be worth the problems of California

porkchopexpress says

We're not picking this high school simply because of its rating, but because of its strong music programs

SunnyvaleCA says

Although a high school might be very highly rated, it might not be great for your kids. Specific school programs, the friends they make, and the vibe of a school are more important than the school's reputation or goal-seeking on arbitrary benchmarks. In today's woke college admissions, going to a highly-rated school means your kids will be penalized in the college admissions process.

Yes. Local knowledge that can only be had from local experience, will be acquired by renting for a couple of years. Such knowledge will be invaluable when it comes to a making a decision to lock-in on a long term commitment.

GreaterNYCDude says

porkchopexpress says

I make the money and she lives in her bubble world as a housewife and mother.

Then wait before buying. Even if its just six to twelve months to know the lay of the land. I know a guy came out east for a job, similar situation... he was breadwinner, etc., wife started missing Cali after about six months and wanted to move back west... It happens.

Besides you've implied your kids are high school aged. 4 years +/- and schools will no longer be a major determining factor.

Good luck with this one.

Thanks. So many factors can play into someone missing Cali and wanting to move back, but the #1 reason I've heard of is family. The wife misses her family back in CA and is homesick. I don't have that problem...zero family here and we've never lived near family. The ONLY thing we'll miss is the weather.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Yes. Local knowledge that can only be had from local experience, will be acquired by renting for a couple of years. Such knowledge will be invaluable when it comes to a making a decision to lock-in on a long term commitment.

Yep, can't argue with that. As another poster said, one way to ease the pain of moving into a rental and then moving again into a purchased house is to whittle down your belongings so that moving isn't such a bitch. I like that idea. Or if I could find this option, rent a furnished home.