patrick.net

RedStar says

I'm pretty sure the industry will roll out 40 year mortgages to keep prices up,

why settle for 40 when 100y is even much cheaper ;)

Blue says

why settle for 40 when 100y is even much cheaper ;)

How about operate like federal government, Never pay just let the debt grow.

Blue says

RedStar says

I'm pretty sure the industry will roll out 40 year mortgages to keep prices up,

why settle for 40 when 100y is even much cheaper ;)

reverse mortgage

I had been floundering since January 2021 when my last gig of 6 years ended, and I have been in no hurry to jump back into another programming position for the Enterprise.
I just can't stand what it has become, and my technical and creative freedom has been made to yield to a committee of women, that makes scrapbook vision boards, all do synchronized Yoga everyday at 4, and now empowered to sit in on Data structures, SOP and Business logic meetings.

About the middle of February after a year of floundering, I started going with my Electrician friend on Jobs. Not only as his step and fetch helper, but he really set out to crash course tutor me with knowledge, that normally a person would work for months or years, before they get to know how to run a job, let alone run the connections and source all the appropriate parts. This guy really knows his shit, so I'm really getting some quality input from him. I work with him cheap, it's more about the knowledge, even when we don't have a job, he goes through his parts shed and his parts boxes in his truck, and shows me what they all are, why they are used, what used to be used, how Dartards(sic) do it, and the code way to do it. Funny when we go on jobs, how many examples of the wrong way there are for him to show me. It really sticks when you were just talking about something that is wrong, then go on a job and see it.

At first I was just interested in doing residential service calls for residentials, with the hope of getting a couple Panel Box replacements a month. I was intimidated with big three phase jobs, but as luck would have it, we got several big three phase jobs back to back, that covered the main service, to wiring and piping the wall, emt, mc cable, metal boxes, 35 foot ceiling work, lights, outlets and switches. Though I was no fan of the scissor lift, nor do I think I could ever learn to drive as well as this guy. As I wouldn't want to have to.

I didn't think I would ever be doing Electrical work. Actually in my previous life before Software, I was in the flooring trade. I missed that gig economy freedom that goes with Trades. Flooring is too brutal for me to do at my age, not at a volume where I could make decent money. Flooring materials weigh a ton, it's the hardest part of the job. But I missed that subcontractor culture.
Also trades are paid a hell of lot more than when I was doing it back before 1997. It was a living hand to mouth affair back then.

This is true of pretty much all Christian holidays. The reason for the mingling in of pagan elements stems from the fact that early Christians had to plan their celebrations around Roman holidays, because that's when they had free time.

DooDahMan says

Do any of these sentiments sound familiar to you?

no

They are very curios, inquisitive, mischievous and spirited animals.
I can see how they are a symbol of fertility, but I'm surprised they aren't a symbol of misbehavior and trouble.

I had a Rabbit, it knew I didn't like it gnawing on cables and wires. So when he was upset or felt like messing with me, he would go flop over by a cable, put his tongue on it, and roll his eyes back to see if I was watching. If I were, he would proceed to quickly chomp down on the cable. if I just ignored him, he wouldn't chomp on it.

Which of those branches lead to Caligulan excess? I regret that I don't see any Caligulan excess in there.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/column-house-listed-1-2-120044287.html?source=patrick.net
Column: The house was listed at $1.2 million. The sale price? Even crazier than you might think

I once had a crazy home loan on a condo in Tustin that was first ten years at a reduced rate then at year ten a ballon and higher payments after. $225k condo that is now $750…. I owned only a few years. Sold in 2005

Prob be more of that. I know people with 10 year car loans now…..

Where is the next Boise? All of them Californians moving there spells its demise.

Remember that when mortgage rates were 10% or more last time housing prices were way cheaper even accounting for inflation and wages. It's not going to have to net nearly as high as it was before to cause downward pressure on housing prices.

https://seekerproject4se.org/2021/10/14/christian-holidays-with-pagan-origins-the-8-pagan-holidays/?source=patrick.net

And, curious, what will inflation due to home prices anyway even if mortgages keep rising?
Wouldn't high overall inflation keep prices going up as long that included wage increases?
I guess that is the real question - are wages going up with the dramatic inflation we have seen in the last two years?
I know in my company, last go around, raises were pretty good as well as bonuses as compared to past years.
Others in the company, though, have pointed out that perhaps the company needs to do a 5% across the board wage increase since inflation costs never really go down even if the rate recedes. For example, will sandwiches at lunch ever get "cheap" again? Likely not... That $12 foot long is here to stay.

Here's an article on the Sarmatians ...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarmatians?source=patrick.net

Long before the rise of the Romanov Empire, there were actually tribal Persian sub-nationalities, Sarmatian or Scythian, outside of the borders of the Persian Empire in the former USSR. Now, do the calculus, if these people were later Slavicized, wouldn't they retain some of their ancestors practices while showing some loyalty to the Tsars?

And then, what was my original treatise of Sikhism being a spiritual descendant of Persian Buddhism?

If you do the thought experiment, you'll see that what survived Islam were these Persian sub-groups, outside of the realm of the Caliphate or the latter Islamist goon, Timur. The founder of Sikhism most likely had this comprehensive realization of the ancient world and made his Sikh practices reflect that of how the Cossacks (who were the eastern-most Persian Buddhists, Zoroastrians, or Nestorial Christians) prior to converting to Eastern Orthodox into a force for good within the Indian Subcontinent.

NuttBoxer says

This is true of pretty much all Christian holidays. The reason for the mingling in of pagan elements stems from the fact that early Christians had to plan their celebrations around Roman holidays, because that's when they had free time.

The Jews of America also did that, adopting Hanukkah as a “major” holiday so their kids wouldn’t feel left out at Christmas. If you read the back story to that one it’s super super super lame. All about a Macabee rebellion and authority crackdown and some Jews hiding in a basement or whatever and a candle burned longer than expected so it was a miracle and stuff. Doesn’t come close to the significance of Christ’s birth, but Jewish kids get gifts for seven days so everyone is happy?

Off the subject, capital gains taxes are a record in 2021.

Because some of my investments are not in retirement accounts, I owed a lot more than in 2020, about $10,000 of my tax owed.

And this is my Prince Harry post for today.

I didn’t believe in Easter, but now I do.

If a living dead Biden can walk around, why can’t Jesus have risen?

HunterTits says

This is one thing California has done that is better than the other states: Prop FUCKING 13.

Oh don't worry. That's about to get repealed in a few years. They tried the commercial property repeal a few years ago and BARELY lost. Prop 13's days are numbered.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Where is the next Boise? All of them Californians moving there spells its demise.

Austin is overpriced as hell. San Antonio and related suburbs went up too, but remain around a $300k median price. While the job market is more robust and diversified in Austin, in no way does it justify a mind blowing $625k median price. Factor in additionally that you can buy a really nice place in exurbs of San Antonio for under $250k and actually still have a reasonable commute, and it shows how far out of whack the two markets are.

Hircus says

A suddenly failing memory could also be a clever defense against some charges she may fear will be soon levied upon her.

"I'm sorry judge I just dont remember"
"What specifically do you not remember?"
"omg where am I? help."

I actually wouldn’t be totally surprised if it’s all a ploy to seat Eric Garbagecetti as Senator without having to win an election first, especially now that he apparently won’t get that Ambassador to India position.

Why are Californians hell bent on repealing the benchmark of low taxes to protect the home owner, instead of demanding RE taxes should be low for all primary residence owners?

The "What about them!", instead of a stronger, "hey what about us too!" mentality is what has helped them to do even greater damage. Everyone is willing to fuck everyone else, as long as they think it doesn't affect their own current condition. Even though it's something that may bite them in ass, further on up the road.
We're taking away our own freedoms, by chiseling away at other's, rather than helping them hold the line tooth and nail.

CA handled plenty of housing crashes before. All the jobs and economy is here, they can get away with murder and still make it.
After every crash, things eventually get back up and higher than previous peaks.

What you see today for 500k will be a 1M+ in next 10 years. There are a lot of reasons and incentives for it for everyone involved at every part of housing market.

FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut says

CA handled plenty of housing crashes before. All the jobs and economy is here, they can get away with murder and still make it.

The real question, is Can California's economy handle real estate prices continuing to increase?

Pricing out employers (and so, employees), pricing out young families (whose children are needed for the economy to have any kind of future), pricing out every kind of low-, working-class, and middle-class workers in the service economy and local civil service.

Can California's economy handle that?

HunterTits says

Who gives a shit.

Californians.

Patrick is a Californian.

He began this blog in discussion about the insane housing market in the region.

B.A.C.A.H. says

FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut says

CA handled plenty of housing crashes before. All the jobs and economy is here, they can get away with murder and still make it.

The real question, is Can California's economy handle real estate prices continuing to increase?

Pricing out employers (and so, employees), pricing out young families (whose children are needed for the economy to have any kind of future), pricing out every kind of low-, working-class, and middle-class workers in the service economy and local civil service.

Can California's economy handle that?

it'll stop when it can't man. right now people are still buying over asking. and it's conventional 20% loans. how long this will last? I don't know. But I still think that everything today will be double 10 years from now.

CA real estate prices keep surprising me. I thought 2010’s decade would repair the damages that were made in 2000’s, and we would see 2006-2007 prices again during this decade. Well, not only did we see these prices, we blew past it. Then came the roaring 2020’s. 🤯

Eventually, whenever that is, real estate prices should come back to the mean. They did for a while during 2009-2012, but some people kept insisting that prices were still too high and missed the boat.

I still remember BMWman bought a house in Santa Clara for $850k around 2015. Everyone thought that was outrageously high. It has probably doubled in value now. Simply insane and not sustainable at this rate of appreciation, but who am I to say?

Non smokers and Conservatives will qualify for 5o year loans.

DooDahMan says

The average cost of a manufactured home in 2019 was about $82,000

Pure stupidity!

Follow the interest rates. If they keep going up, watch out below. Nothing else matters.

Yep, it's not just 80s and 90s boxy CBS homes that were going for $150k in Central Florida 4-5 years ago but $300k+ now, but RV Lots have gone from the $400s to the $900s - in the off season. A spot in a non-55 mobile home park are now in the high 5 figures. I've seen 6 figures for lots (basically 1/20th of an acre) in the nicer ones.

That map of Florida is totally wrong: The keys aren't "Part of Cuba", but Alcoholic Jimmy Buffet turning Wall Street Asshole. Normal People and Golf is what Martin, Palm Beach, and much of Broward used to be. Those areas are now Wokey Dokey, both from Yuppie Execs and Gimme Dats.

Eman says

CA real estate prices keep surprising me. I thought 2010’s decade would repair the damages that were made in 2000’s, and we would see 2006-2007 prices again during this decade. Well, not only did we see these prices, we blew past it. Then came the roaring 2020’s. 🤯

Eventually, whenever that is, real estate prices should come back to the mean. They did for a while during 2009-2012, but some people kept insisting that prices were still too high and missed the boat.

I still remember BMWman bought a house in Santa Clara for $850k around 2015. Everyone thought that was outrageously high. It has probably doubled in value now. Simply insane and not sustainable at this rate of appreciation, but who am I to say?

i didn’t understand reasons for this well until i spoke to political leaders in CA. Once i saw where all the funding and money is in, it became very clear.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Where is the next Boise? All of them Californians moving there spells its demise.

Im moving to Boise, already made it clear to neighbors im not a liberal. every house in subdivision has trump and blue lives flags. fucking beautiful.

HunterTits says

Goran_K says

Oh don't worry. That's about to get repealed in a few years. They tried the commercial property repeal a few years ago and BARELY lost. Prop 13's days are numbered.

Uh, no. You confuse the two.

Just because the homeowning voters were mostly in support of nailing commercial property does not translate into them doing the same to themselves. No way.

That's why the repeal ONLY mentioned commercial property.

Oh, and now that lots of Californians are transferring actual ownership to LLCs, trusts and corps themselves, the window for even supporting the carve out for corporate property is diminishing, not increasin.

I am not confused at all. You have too much faith in Democrats in California. I know exactly what their game plan is.

The commercial repeal was just a test of how far they could push it. It nearly passed. California is bleeding conservative voters and moderates to other states in droves right now. In a few years, I will bet anyone here up to $5,000 that the commercial repeal gets put to a vote AGAIN and this time it passes.

Once that passes, the residential one will be next and the long term trend isn’t looking good. Democrat politicians in California can see the same numbers I see. Home ownership in CA has dropped nearly 10% since its peak in 2005 and the current ownership rate is 17% below the current national average. Once it goes under 50%, Prop 13 is dead and gone. Guaranteed. California democrats will most likely get rid of it in a trade off; something like “We need to get rid of prop 13 to support CA Healthcare for all.”

That’s all it will take.

Ceffer says

Which of those branches lead to Caligulan excess? I regret that I don't see any Caligulan excess in there.

inflation lowered expectations from caligulan solendor to 900sqft apartment in a blue collar neighborhood with a 2 hour commute to work.

Boise downtown is California lite.

There's a ®ealtor For Sale sign in front, but the Real Estate website says it's off the market. Sold already. That's where they got the $1.087 M valuation from.

We know what that means. The sign is for the ®ealtor to attact more Greater Fools to their next pocket listings.

The lucky buyer signed up for a Property Tax bill close to $1000/month for the privilege of owning this gem. What's with the bars on the windows, anyways?

Note the stucco'd over garage door. Does the 1100 sq ft cited on the website include the floorspace of the converted garage?

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1785-Hopkins-Dr-San-Jose-CA-95122/19727040_zpid/?source=patrick.net

RedStar says

Boise downtown is California lite.

last time i was there saw 1 black guy total there. at first was worried, like shit this place is going down. but then thought to myself… hes alone how badly can he fuck it up all by himself? itll be fine.

HunterTits says

RedStar says

I'm pretty sure the industry will roll out 40 year mortgages to keep prices up,

Right before the Japanese super-bubble in the 90s popped, they were offering 100 year multi-generational mortgages there.

The banker who gets on stage and pats himself on the back by spouting utter bullshit by calling a 100yr mortgage an "innovation" deserves a punch to the mouth for being so damn stupid.