patrick.net

As I see it the move to Nashville gives you a change of scene, which reading between the lines, is needed. To paraphrase Hamlet... "To buy or not to buy? That is the question."

Your kids are high school aged now, so in the next decade they should be on their own.

So ask yourself, how long would you reasonably live there? Until the kids are out of high school? Out of college / trade school? Until you and your wife retire?

If this is a short term thing (live in Nashville for a while, enjoy the scene, get your kids through high-school, then move somewhere else) then buying would have more downside risk, because if prices start to decline, you may be "stuck" in a house you can't unload right away.

Conversly if this is a longer term move (as best you can tell) then settling down isn't a bad thing, but I'd still wait at least a few months to get the lay of the land.... but that's just me.

I don't think saying "a bunch of people on the internet said we shouldn't buy right away" will win you the argument but saying... "let's wait six months just to be sure we like the area as much as we think we will" may do the trick. Prices may go up a bit if you wait, but they won't double in the next six months. Besides that will allow you to get a better handle on your budget, since the cost of living is completely different in that part of the world as compared to SoCal.

Good luck.

I'm not at the stage in life with high schoolers, but if you've got them in local schools for 4 years or less, I'd get a townhome. 3 Bed, 3 bath with den/office. I prefer and have suggested rural, but why not get something mostly maintenance free and enjoy the remaining years your kids will be with you? If you like the place stay or rent it out if it's a desirable area and you no longer want to stay after the kids are out. Easier to sell a townhome if you don't like the area. Higher "floor" as far as possible losses with a townhome as well. 10% drop on $1.2M home is different than a 10% drop on a $500k townhome. Visiting is different that living there so who knows.

Either way the time will fly and next thing you know you're sitting in a $1.5M big house with just your spouse. With under 4 years left with kids in the house (unless they boomerang) I'd be super hesitant in dropping that much in a new area. I'd get a newish townhome and then a 1-2 bed in the Caribbean or FL. When it gets cold(ish) fly down for a week or so.

My folks would go to FL for 2 weeks often once I had my DL. 16-18 years old I had a 3,500sf house to myself for a month at least every year once my sister went off to college.

Whatever you may buy, just don't make it an anchor would be additional advice given your timeline. I'd go as modest as the wife is chill with, save some money and then reevaluate once the kids are out. I'd still buy though. CA is unique, but most areas it just makes more sense to buy without prop 13 type legislation.

Go further out, gets cheaper. We are not going to expensive area, suburb about 40 min from city. That’s what I’d recommend.

We are leaving CA too, will be gone in a few month. No more gay shit pushed onto kids, no tranny shit pushed by militant left wing teachers, no vaccine mandates, less taxes. We will miss good friends too, but we had to make these sacrifices for our children.

Fortwaynemobile says

Go further out, gets cheaper. We are not going to expensive area, suburb about 40 min from city. That’s what I’d recommend.

We are leaving CA too, will be gone in a few month. No more gay shit pushed onto kids, no tranny shit pushed by militant left wing teachers, no vaccine mandates, less taxes. We will miss good friends too, but we had to make these sacrifices for our children.

Where did you end up picking?

I was born in Memphis and lived there till I was seven. My aunt and uncle lived in Nashville and we would visit them a lot of summers. Great times. Tennesee is still pretty deep south. If you haven't lived around Southerners, it'll be an adjustment. But a nice one :)
Nashville is full-on woke central now. Consider other places like Knoxville, Memphis or up towards the KY border.

WookieMan says

Either way the time will fly and next thing you know you're sitting in a $1.5M big house with just your spouse.

He can rent it out or sell it for nice profit.

10% appreciation on a 1.5M is 150k versus 50k on a 500k townhouse. Or just re-finance, pull money out, rent it out and buy the townhome later. I am all for accumulating houses and building a rental investment portfolio.

Also, having a large house is fun....entertainment for family, friends, hosting out of towners, etc.

RC2006 says

Fortwaynemobile says

Go further out, gets cheaper. We are not going to expensive area, suburb about 40 min from city. That’s what I’d recommend.

We are leaving CA too, will be gone in a few month. No more gay shit pushed onto kids, no tranny shit pushed by militant left wing teachers, no vaccine mandates, less taxes. We will miss good friends too, but we had to make these sacrifices for our children.

Where did you end up picking?

Idaho, life we understand better. Florida was nice too, but cities reminded me too much of CA

WookieMan says

I'm not at the stage in life with high schoolers, but if you've got them in local schools for 4 years or less, I'd get a townhome. 3 Bed, 3 bath with den/office. I prefer and have suggested rural, but why not get something mostly maintenance free and enjoy the remaining years your kids will be with you? If you like the place stay or rent it out if it's a desirable area and you no longer want to stay after the kids are out. Easier to sell a townhome if you don't like the area. Higher "floor" as far as possible losses with a townhome as well. 10% drop on $1.2M home is different than a 10% drop on a $500k townhome. Visiting is different that living there so who knows.

Either way the time will fly and next thing you know you're sitting in a $1.5M big house with just your spouse. With under 4 years left with kids in the house (unless they boomerang) I'd be super hesitant in dropping that much in a new area. I'd get a newish townhome and then a 1-2 bed in the Caribbean or ...

Good advice. Thanks.

SunnyvaleCA says

So I'm getting a 3x increase on the full purchase price of the house minus the interest I paid on the mortgage verses the S&P 500 gain I would realize by dollar-cost-averaging stock purchase over the last 20 years.

There's something else to be added to this: past performance is not an indicator of the future performance. This applies to both housing and S&P500. Ideally you'd have both, somewhat evenly matched in value. Because diversification.

porkchopexpress says

Good advice. Thanks.

I’d advise against a townhome, unless fully detached. You are really rolling the dice on having a decent neighbor or not. Even if you meet the neighbors before you buy and they seem decent, they can move or turn out to be A holes. A house on your own plot is less risky.

Yes, a friend of my dad's said that the only house he would buy is one where he can walk entirely around the house. At the time it sounded odd to me, but now I understand.

Patrick says

the only house he would buy is one where he can walk entirely around the house.

I'll one up you. I was looking (and found) a house where I can walk around it in the buff. I have enough woods as a buffer that I can't see my neighbors in the summer

Patrick says

Yes, a friend of my dad's said that the only house he would buy is one where he can walk entirely around the house. At the time it sounded odd to me, but now I understand.

That’s what we got in Idaho. Land of potatoes. Moving in summer after school year ends.

Well, after many frustrating attempts to bid on houses and seeing how expensive and overpriced homes are, I finally have my wife convinced to rent a house if it's relatively nice. So, I've made good progress over here and I'm so glad we don't have to buy right now.

Thanks again for all your advice and validate that I'm not going too crazy.

Fortwaynemobile says

That’s what we got in Idaho

According to Benjamin Fulford, when the Biden regime finally implodes on itself and falls apart from internal corruptions and the US Corporation is laid to rest decisively, and the foreign occupied foreign city state of Washington DC is flushed, then Idaho may become the location of the new capital of the re-constituted USA, because heartland rather than slave of Euro conspiracies. He also thinks there is a chance of Canada or large segments thereof and Mexico joining a union. The British Commonwealth has expired, and even Australia may eventually join a union.

This all sounds a bit dodgy hopium to me, but no more strange than the actual unwinding events of the last couple of years.

I'm sorry I didn't weigh in PCE but I don't think I have any advice to offer on a 1.5 million dollar spread.
Eventually I would like to get the hell out of Florida, I would have been gone by now, if not for DeSantis. I don't think I'll ever be able to pull the wife out of here.
She has her Sisters here, and our three adult daughters live here. I would like to buy a rural spread and give our two young boys a farm upbringing.
I may keep the SF house, and move between the two. Snowbird in SF perhaps.

Tenpoundbass says

I'm sorry I didn't weigh in PCE but I don't think I have any advice to offer on a 1.5 million dollar spread.
Eventually I would like to get the hell out of Florida, I would have been gone by now, if not for DeSantis. I don't think I'll ever be able to pull the wife out of here.
She has her Sisters here, and our three adult daughters live here. I would like to buy a rural spread and give our two young boys a farm upbringing.
I may keep the SF house, and move between the two. Snowbird in SF perhaps.

Thanks TPB. Just curious...why do you hate FL?

It's too flat, but not Florida mostly South Florida. But it's changing politically to some degree.

I would like to get some land in the Carolina mountains somewhere.

Ceffer says

Fortwaynemobile says

That’s what we got in Idaho

According to Benjamin Fulford, when the Biden regime finally implodes on itself and falls apart from internal corruptions and the US Corporation is laid to rest decisively, and the foreign occupied foreign city state of Washington DC is flushed, then Idaho may become the location of the new capital of the re-constituted USA, because heartland rather than slave of Euro conspiracies. He also thinks there is a chance of Canada or large segments thereof and Mexico joining a union. The British Commonwealth has expired, and even Australia may eventually join a union.

This all sounds a bit dodgy hopium to me, but no more strange than the actual unwinding events of the last couple of years.

I don't see it happening. This place is too rural. A lot of new construction, but most of it is sold prior to being built even, mostly to people leaving CA. There are still no major industries here, it's a great place to do construction work or own a farm. Apparently big name here is the guy who sells potatoes to McDonalds from the day they started. Was a neat history lesson there.

Well, we’re trying to close on a beautiful house in Franklin area. The seller is desperate because their original buyer backed out and we’re getting a good value considering the market. Ultimately when running the buy vs rent financials, buying this house is easily the better option even though I still think we’re headed for recession. It’s well within our means and I can finally end the pains of having a landlord, not worrying about rent increases or getting kicked out, and doing what we want to the house. Best news? Leaving Kommiefornia. We’re all really excited.

I appreciate all the advice.

porkchopexpress says

smallpox pandemic.

Appears that you have excellent prediction skills

if it helps any. friend moved to tennessee, more rural, still cheap. cities are expensive, but you go outside and its cheap

Bd6r says

porkchopexpress says

smallpox pandemic.

Appears that you have excellent prediction skills

Not sure about that, but thanks for the compliment. I still believe we're headed for economic pain and the price of my house will go down, but I plan on living there for a long time. If I get into investment properties/rentals, this coming recession will be gold for those with extra cash to pounce.

porkchopexpress says

this coming recession will be gold for those with extra cash to pounce.

I certainly hope so.

Anyone still wanting to buy a house near Nashville? My acquaintance is selling his in Greenbrier. 5 bed, 5k sqf. New construction with a lot of extras.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/139-Empson-Dr-Greenbrier-TN-37073/80375447_zpid/

Shaman says

Anyone still wanting to buy a house near Nashville? My acquaintance is selling his in Greenbrier. 5 bed, 5k sqf. New construction with a lot of extras.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/139-Empson-Dr-Greenbrier-TN-37073/80375447_zpid/

Maybe a mis link here - that is not new construction. Interesting, the asking price is nearly triple from what it sold at in 2015.

HeadSet says

Interesting, the asking price is nearly triple from what it sold at in 2015.

Greedheads be gettin' their comeuppance. Verily.

Shaman says

Anyone still wanting to buy a house near Nashville? My acquaintance is selling his in Greenbrier. 5 bed, 5k sqf. New construction with a lot of extras.

I like helping people but that is builder grade stuff. That's not quality. Value must be in the land? It's got the classic make it look good feel. Tray ceilings, crown molding and then..... bottom of the barrel cabinetry and plumbing fixtures. It's a lipstick on a pig house dude. Sorry if that offends, but I've been in a couple thousand houses and condos. Might work for Trashville, but that ain't $1M in my world. Must be a good school district?